2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Flying Weasel]

Any respect for Eastern University yet?

They now sit at 10-2 with wins over York (4-1) and tonight against conference rival Misericordia (1-0 2 ot).  Their only blemishes were on the road at RUC where Camden scored early and a slip up against Albright.  Definitely a team which seems to be peaking and getting unnoticed.  Not a top 10 team yet but definitely someone with their remaining schedule who could finish 15-2 on the year with their only tough game remaining is King's.

Eastern's problem is their weak schedule.

     Opponents' avg. winning pct. .491 (to date)      
     Opponents w/ winning records: 5 of 12 (to date)

And those numbers will be even lower (closer to .450) at the end of the regular season as their remaining opponents are a combined 23-41-8 (.375).  They need to win the Freedom AQ as it's questionable if they'd snag an at-large berth even at 16-3-0 (after a Freedom final loss) with such a low SOS.  5 or so years ago the NCAA decided make teams with SOS's under .500 ineligible for the regional rankings (and by extension at-large selection), but reversed that decision after the first two (of three) regional rankings that year (Dominican and Swarthmore were high profile teams missing the cut).  But it's a great illustration of how important the NCAA takes SOS. But we'll know soon enough (next Wednesday) when the regional rankings come out how the committee rates them given their high win pct. but low SOS.

[lastguyoffthebench]

York falls to Frostburg St. 3-2...

York is now flirting with missing out on the CAC six-team tournament.  UN-believable!

I was thinking the same thing, FW.  With Salisbury and St. Mary's looming, it almost looks that way...   

[Sirius90]

There's no question that Messiah, without a blemish, should remain number one. Overall record and SOS should be the prime factors in ranking, not game scores.

[lastguyoffthebench]

101-3-5 the last 4.5 years.  Yeah, I'd agree. 


Because of OWP/OOWP... Centennial should dominate the NCAA Rankings:

1) Messiah
2) F&M
3) Dickinson
4) Haverford 
5) Muhlenberg
6) JHU
7) Eastern
8) Swat
---------------------
9) Miseri
10) Lycoming


What are your thoughts, FW

[D3soccerwatcher]

#5 Wheaton down 1-0 to unranked Carthage. 8 mins remaining in first half.

[backyarddawg]

Kenyon heading into 2nd OT with Denison.

[PaulNewman]

Well, Kenyon doesn't deserve to move up after that performance.  Squeak out a win with 30 secs left on an unfortunate GK miscue on a last ditch ball played into the box from 40 yards out.  Kenyon did dominate statistically but way too many long balls and little creativity tonight against a very determined Denison team.  Game actually looked very similar to Messiah-Stevenson game.  I did hear 3rd hand that the Denison crowd was outrageously bad which of course you cannot get a feel for via video.

And Sirius90, a draw is considered a blemish, so Messiah does have one.  Kenyon deserved a blemish from tonight but got lucky.

[Cheesehead Henry]

UW-Platteville beats Loras 1-0 in OT.

Wow. You know, I've been seeing it and saying it for a few weeks now. This isn't the Loras team we've seen in the past few years. They just couldn't find the back of the net tonight and UW-Platteville punished them for it. Loras had multiple opportunities and just couldn't put them away, most of them being chances they definitely should have had.

[Flying Weasel]

Given that Kenyon came 28 seconds from the same fate as Messiah, against a similar quality side (Denison at 5-6-1 vs. a tougher schedule, Stevenson at 9-5-2 against a softer schedule), with similar domination statistically (Kenyon 21(7)-5(3) shot(SOG) advantage, Messiah 26(4)-4(0) shot(SOG) advantage), I'd say voters would be justified going either way.  However, I'd guess most will only see 2OT win and 2OT tie, and go with the winner.  However, both teams still have another game this week.  Both should pick up wins, as Wabash was totally dominated by a border-line Top 25 Ohio Wesleyan, but who knows.  The other question is how much Trinity (Tx.) and F&M will benefit from Kenyon's close-call and nab some first place votes of their own if they can take care of their business yet this week.  It will be interesting to see what the voters do.

[PaulNewman]

Flying Weasel, if you aren't already writing officially for the site you should be.  You are always right on the money.

[lastguyoffthebench]

You should have seen some of his d3soccer.net posts.   

Wheaton about to go down to Carthage... down 2-1 with 3 min left..

[Gregory Sager]

North Park defeated Illinois Wesleyan tonight, 3-0, and Wheaton lost to Carthage, 2-1, so NPU is now alone in first place in the CCIW.

[Flying Weasel]

UW-Platteville beats Loras 1-0 in OT.

Wow. You know, I've been seeing it and saying it for a few weeks now. This isn't the Loras team we've seen in the past few years. They just couldn't find the back of the net tonight and UW-Platteville punished them for it. Loras had multiple opportunities and just couldn't put them away, most of them being chances they definitely should have had.

Such a strange season with last year's runner-up Rutgers-Camden having 6 losses already, semifinalist Williams having a 1-4-1 stretch that has them playing catch-up, semifinalist Loras struggling and far from dominate despite a decent overall record, Ohio Northern with six losses already, and one of the top programs over the last 10 years York barely able to win a quarter of the games as 4-6-4 and in danger of missing their conference playoffs.

[Flying Weasel]

You should have seen some of his d3soccer.net posts.

Now those were the days!  Was kinda feeling nostalgic for the old message board and decided to come out and play a little the past couple days!

[Ryan Harmanis]

Watched OWU-Wabash live, and it wasn't even as close as the stats.  Great goalkeeping and some bad offsides calls kept it from being 5 or 6.  Kenyon looks like it's feeling the pressure - conference games have been 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0.  Shutouts are great, but Kenyon's scoring and shots on goal are way down from out-of-conference.  I actually think their physical style can be a drawback against weaker teams.  They tend to muck up games, which is great against Messiah, but unnecessary against Denison.  It allows inferior teams to stay closer than they should.

Many top teams seem to be in transition, which should make for craziness down the stretch.  It will be verrrrry interesting to see where the AQs end up and who's left to fight over an at-large bid.