2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Domino1195]

Joining late after a busy weekend . . .

In the OWU loss to Otterbein: Bloecher did not play. One man does not a team make, but he's important. OWU has built chemistry throughout the year with many new starters - they are going in the right direction.  I stand by my assertion that Kenyon's backs are big but not fleet of foot: I'll take a pacy forward against them any day (the one Capital goal was a penalty - the Cap forward split two defenders and was taken down). Kenyon's best defense actually comes from their top 6 - when they apply high pressure and keep their back 4 from being exposed.

To another comment about parity: in all the games I've seen here in Ohio the old saw that "on any given day . . ." is as true this year as in any previous.  Some teams may be guilty of getting up for certain competitors, followed by flat performances in subsequent games in which you'd think they'd do well. Most scores in the NCAC and OAC are very close - very few blow-outs.  Most deciding goals come from mistakes (same as it ever was I suppose) with games decided by one goal.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Maybe this is true every year but it sure seems like we are going to have a wild and exciting NCAA tourney.  First, we've got teams that have been ranked very, very high who may not even get a bid.  Could get even crazier if teams like Calvin, Wheaton, Kenyon or OWU, etc don't win their AQs.

It would seem that some of the 1st and 2nd round games are going to be monsters.  Some very good teams are not going to get in, and some very good teams that barely get in are going to draw top seeds early on yielding very few games that are going to be safe.

What do some of you think about where things stand with Emory, Rochester, Luther, Williams, etc.

The UAA is brutal this year.  Usual bottom feeders NYU and Case have earned some good results and after a slow start CMU is acquitting itself well.

Emory still has Rochester and CMU on the schedule.  If they (Emory) manage to finish 1-5-1 in the UAA, I can't see how they will get in.   I think it is still too early but Brandeis and Chicago seem to be safe.  NYU SOS not strong enough.   UAA still should be getting 3 teams in... Emory, Rochester, and CMU will be battling for that last spot.

Williams and Rutgers-Camden are AQ or bust... Does a conference championship loss give them an extra look?  NESCAC seems to have Amherst and Tufts already dialed in (AQ still wide open in both NESCAC and NJAC).

Luther should be okay in terms of being seeded high in the North, but like you mentioned... if Calvin, Wheaton, Kenyon, OWU, Trinity don't win, they will be on the outside looking in.  The season finale vs Dubuque is VITAL (lost there in 2012 and 2010, but won at home in 2013 and 2011). 

[Mr.Right]

Usually in the top leagues like Nescac and NJAC if a team on the edge makes the tourney final and loses, they will get in as long as they are regionally ranked. I have numerous examples from Nescac if anyone is interested.

[PaulNewman]

Domino, agreed that one loss and one game does not a season make.  But that applies to all teams, no?  Seems a lot of weight was given to Wabash having a poor showing at OWU (where many teams have had poor showings historically), and then, by extension, a lot of weight appears to be getting placed on Kenyon losing away to Wabash in an even game off of one play.  Wabash, after all, was unbeaten and up to #15 or #16 just a week ago.  No doubt OWU has been rounding into form and Kenyon after weeks at #2 has sputtered a bit.  Certainly a huge and intriguing game tomorrow.  And if they play again in a couple of weeks will be even bigger.  Kenyon probably cares less about the NCAC title than OWU but they should care about playing themselves out of NCAA home games or even a NCAA spot.

Almost out of the blue the NCAC suddenly has gotten very interesting.  Kenyon probably wouldn't relish heading back to Wabash.  Wabash still has to play DePauw and it's not hard to imagine them dropping points in another game.  And DePauw is now very much back in the thick of things.  If you are OWU or Kenyon, would you rather draw Wabash or DePauw in a NCAC semi?

And although likely done in terms of a NCAC playoff berth, watch out for a prideful and still talented Oberlin squad embracing a spoiler role.

[MIAA22]

I really think a case could be made for Calvin being as good an option for No. 2 as anyone.  I think the D3soccer.com voters have underrated them because of the two early losses.  This week would be a perfect opportunity for the voters to bump Calvin up to the middle of the Top 10 given the teams above them that have tied and/or lost this week, but somehow I think No. 8 would be as far as they'll jump from their current No. 12.

I have to agree with you, Flying Weasel.  I have seen a number of the top teams in the Midwest play this season, including Wheaton, Chicago, Elmhurst, OWU and Hope, and Calvin is clearly the cream of the crop.  Their only two losses came in the first week of the season to Wheaton on the road (the one-goal difference coming on questionable PK call) and home to North Central, whom they dominated (24-8 shots, 8-0 corner kicks).  They also have a win over OWU in a game they dominated and are led by an All American forward who is rumored to be getting strong looks from a number of MLS teams.  The Knights are riding a 12-game winning streak, but have clearly been underrated all season.  They are poised to make a deep run in the tournament come November.

I too have been fortunate enough to see these quality teams compete this year and, call me crazy, but I can see Hope and Calvin making deep runs into this years tournament, just like 2011. Calvin has taken both conference games, but it's very difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season, especially a hungry side like Hope. I can see Hope snagging the AQ in the tournament and Calvin taking an at-large.

[Soccergeek]

I too have been fortunate enough to see these quality teams compete this year and, call me crazy, but I can see Hope and Calvin making deep runs into this years tournament, just like 2011. Calvin has taken both conference games, but it's very difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season, especially a hungry side like Hope. I can see Hope snagging the AQ in the tournament and Calvin taking an at-large.

I have to respectfully disagree with you.  Calvin is clearly at another level compared with the rest of the MIAA, including Hope.  On top of that, if Hope reaches the championship game, it will be played on Calvin's natural grass field (where Hope lost 4-1 a few weeks ago in a game in which Calvin played a large portion of the second half down a man).  The Flying Dutchmen should be more concerned with fighting off Kalamazoo and Olivet for the conference's second position, thereby guaranteeing a first round home game.

[blooter442]

Emory still has Rochester and CMU on the schedule.  If they (Emory) manage to finish 1-5-1 in the UAA, I can't see how they will get in.   I think it is still too early but Brandeis and Chicago seem to be safe.  NYU SOS not strong enough.   UAA still should be getting 3 teams in... Emory, Rochester, and CMU will be battling for that last spot.

Those three teams you mentioned at the end (hypothetically) battling for one spot presents an intriguing situation.

Doubt Emory would get in with a 1-5-1 UAA record, especially considering their SOS. Then again, they are currently 11-3-1, with all of their losses coming to UAA teams. If they can win two of their last three, I think they'll be in good shape.

CMU has only played two ranked teams so far this season, and lost both (home to Kenyon and 2OT away to Brandeis.) A win/draw against Brandeis would have helped them quite a bit. Didn't start the season well, but they seem to have responded to losing their first two games—their win at NYU was impressive.

Rochester has a big win against Brandeis on its resume, and arguably the win over SLU and tie against Oneonta State, but four losses and three ties seem to be too much to overcome at this point. Then again, the Brandeis women got into the 2012 tournament with a 13-4-2, but that's a win percentage of .736 as opposed to Rochester's current win percentage of .576 (albeit having played more games.) Yet, even if Rochester were to win out and finish 10-4-3, they'd be at .676.

Conclusively, I believe that (at this point) Rochester is the least likely of the three teams to get an at-large bid. For me, they have to win out—and that includes winning at Emory, which I think is a big ask, especially considering Emory is reeling from their three straight losses. Regardless, the last three games in the UAA schedule are looking very exciting.

[lastguyoffthebench]

                          Region WP              (Region SOS)       SSF            Record vs Ranked
Emory                      .750   10-3-1       *27  (.605)        23             1-2-0  (W: RU-N...  L:  Brandeis, Chicago)  1-3 if NYU gets ranked.

CMU                         .654     8-4-1       *29  (.590)        22             0-2-1  (L: Kenyon, Brandeis...  T: Chicago)  1-2-1 if NYU gets ranked.

Rochester                .577     6-4-3       *17  (.650)         11             2-1-1  (W: Brandeis, SLU.. L: Chicago.. T: Oneonta St)  2-2-1 if NYU

Case Western         .636     6-3-2       * 22  (.614)        14             0-2-1  (L: John Carrol, Brandeis...  T: Chicago) 1-2-1 if NYU ranked.

*Massey SOS

Rochester great W's vs Brandeis and SLU offset the losses to Morrisville St and Lycoming (both with high OWP, weaker OOWP).   I would have their resume ahead of Emory and CMU at this point.  Luckily, there will be a round robin; CMU with the advantage of playing them both at home.     IF Rochester can manage a split on the road (@ Emory / @ CMU), they would control their own destiny vs Case Western at home.   

You can't count out Case Western either as they also play Emory, CMU, Rochester!   

Rochester @ Kean is a big matchup for both schools fighting for position within their respective regions.

[blooter442]

Rochester @ Kean is a big matchup for both schools fighting for position within their respective regions.

Agreed. Kean's 10-5-1 isn't superb, but they are coming off of a win at Rutgers-Newark and are 7-1 at home. Conversely, Rochester is 1-2-1 on the road.

[KnightFalcon]

I too have been fortunate enough to see these quality teams compete this year and, call me crazy, but I can see Hope and Calvin making deep runs into this years tournament, just like 2011. Calvin has taken both conference games, but it's very difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season, especially a hungry side like Hope. I can see Hope snagging the AQ in the tournament and Calvin taking an at-large.

I have to respectfully disagree with you.  Calvin is clearly at another level compared with the rest of the MIAA, including Hope.  On top of that, if Hope reaches the championship game, it will be played on Calvin's natural grass field (where Hope lost 4-1 a few weeks ago in a game in which Calvin played a large portion of the second half down a man).  The Flying Dutchmen should be more concerned with fighting off Kalamazoo and Olivet for the conference's second position, thereby guaranteeing a first round home game.

Soccer geek - good points. It does seem like Calvin is at another level compared to the rest of the MIAA, but all you have to is go back to last season when Hope beat Calvin (in PKs) on Calvin's grass surface to take the AQ spot and leave Calvin at home come tournament time.

[Soccergeek]

I too have been fortunate enough to see these quality teams compete this year and, call me crazy, but I can see Hope and Calvin making deep runs into this years tournament, just like 2011. Calvin has taken both conference games, but it's very difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season, especially a hungry side like Hope. I can see Hope snagging the AQ in the tournament and Calvin taking an at-large.

I have to respectfully disagree with you.  Calvin is clearly at another level compared with the rest of the MIAA, including Hope.  On top of that, if Hope reaches the championship game, it will be played on Calvin's natural grass field (where Hope lost 4-1 a few weeks ago in a game in which Calvin played a large portion of the second half down a man).  The Flying Dutchmen should be more concerned with fighting off Kalamazoo and Olivet for the conference's second position, thereby guaranteeing a first round home game.

Soccer geek - good points. It does seem like Calvin is at another level compared to the rest of the MIAA, but all you have to is go back to last season when Hope beat Calvin (in PKs) on Calvin's grass surface to take the AQ spot and leave Calvin at home come tournament time.

Last year was last year, KnightFalcon.  Calvin is a better squad this year (particularly in net), and Hope is not as strong as a year ago.  One only needs to look at their recent loss at home to Kalamazoo, a game in which the Hornets were the better team.  Of course, upsets do happen (that's why they play the games), but my crystal ball says Calvin rides into the NCAA tournament on a 18-game win streak.

[Christan Shirk]

I was surprised by the responses to the latest D3soccer.com "Readers Poll" concerning who should be ranked #1 and #2, and just curious if posters here have any insight into the high percentage (33%) of votes for "Other".  A vote for "Other" basically means that one either (a) doesn't think that Messiah should be in the top 2 or (b) thinks that at least one of the top 2 does not come from the group of Messiah, Kenyon, F&M, Trinity, Oneonta St., Brandeis, and Calvin.  Never anticipated a third of respondents thinking that.  It's a head-scratcher for me.  Maybe "1. F&M, 2. Trinity" and/or "1. F&M, 2. Brandies" should have been an option?  Any ideas what the thinking is?  Do you guys think the rankings are that far off that?

[lastguyoffthebench]

NSCAA Top 10 Prediction:
  1) Messiah
  2) Brandeis
  3) Trinity
  4) Oneonta St
  5) F&M
  6) Kenyon
  7) Calvin
  8) Loras
  9) CNU
10) St. Lawrence

[lastguyoffthebench]

Christan,

I would think either combination of Brandeis/F&M, Brandeis/Kenyon, Messiah/Wheaton, Messiah/Loras.
My vote at this time remains 1) Messiah 2) Brandeis.

[Mr.Right]

Based on Mr.Right's eye test I voted :

1. Messiah
2. Trinity(TX)

After watching all the top teams play I just do not think Kenyon, F&M or Brandeis are #2 in the nation. All 3 of those teams can be broken down and have holes in their line-ups to attack.