2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Christan, I think you got it right.  Doesn't make sense why 30% voted Other.

Mr.Right, what is your sample size with F&M and Kenyon.

For me, a poll isn't always about who we think is the best, but who is most deserving of the spots at this time.  I personally doubt F&M will end up at #2 (or #1) in the end, but to this point, beginning with a monster opening weekend and meeting every challenge with a tough schedule since then, they have earned a very high ranking.  Same with Brandeis, Trinity, Oneonta.

Let's take Brandeis.  My guess is that everyone thought they would be very good this year, but if you looked at their schedule preseason and suggested they would be 14-1 right now I think most of us would think that highly unlikely.  Regardless of how their season ends, to this point you can't argue about them having a very, very high ranking.  And I am one who thinks Brandeis has a very good chance to advance to the Elite 8/Final 4.  And Savoven should be getting some consideration for All-American.  Brandeis has a large senior group and I think that will mean something in 2-3 weeks.

[Christan Shirk]

Ignoring the "Other" votes, here's how the ranking would look based on respondents collective votes.

Reader's Pool Results to date
1. Messiah
2. F&M - 2(15) + 35 = 65
3. Brandies - 2(9) + 28 = 46
4. Trinity - 2(8) + 15 = 31
5. Kenyon - 2(4) + 18 = 26
6. Calvin - 0 + 15 = 15
7. Oneonta St. - 2(5) + 4 = 14

D3soccer.com Top 25
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Trinity
4. Oneonta St.
5. Brandeis
6. Kenyon
7. Calvin

[Mr.Right]

I have seen both F&M and Kenyon twice and have not been overly impressed but I will give Kenyon another shot today as I plan on watching at 3pm.

[Midwest Soccer]

Final Score: Kenyon 0 Ohio Wesleyan 0

Very even game in my opinion. No team strung a lot of passes together. Both defenses performed admirably. OWU hit the post in the first half, but overall I'd say Kenyon had a couple better chances. One of the Kenyon defenders (Sam Justice I believe) made an amazing slide tackle to prevent a Colton Bloecher shot late in the game that I thought was gonna go in.

What does this mean? OWU is in the drivers seat to win their 7th straight NCAC regular season championship. If they win out, they will do it outright. They have home matches against Oberlin and Denison with a trip to Hiram to end the season. They can even afford to tie one of those and win the other 2 and still win it outright (assuming Kenyon and Wabash win out)...Wabash still has a tough rivalry game against DePauw left on the schedule as well.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out but my guess for how it will end: 1.) OWU 2.) Kenyon 3.) DePauw 4.) Wabash.

I think Kenyon is gonna make some noise in the NCAA's again this year. Very early to speculate as the NCAA Regional rankings haven't come out yet but I'm curious how many NCAC teams will make it to the NCAA tournament. I could see as many as 3 but honestly I could see only one doing it as well.

[PaulNewman]

Mostly agree with you Midwest.  Bottom line is Kenyon will be disappointed (but at least didn't lose) and OWU will be happy with the tie since as you say they are now basically a lock to win the regular season NCAC title (as they are done with the toughest part of their schedule).  And of course that will give OWU home field for the tournament.  Kenyon will be thinking about the impact of the Wabash loss.

I thought Kenyon outplayed OWU for long stretches of the game but couldn't produce a lot of quality around and inside the 18, and then again it would not have been surprising at all to see OWU get one on one of their counters.  Bloecher and Schaefer are both very good players, but overall I do think Kenyon is more talented this year.  Justice was phenomenal.  If Kenyon can find their offensive finishing again in the next 3 weeks I think they will be a formidable opponent.  It was hard to tell on video if Amolo should have been awarded a PK on the play right on or just inside the 18 and I wondered if the GK deserved red there.  Also heard that Justice got pulled down in the box when he would have had a clear header chance off a corner late.  Kenyon gave up some bad fouls as well that allowed Bloecher a few free kick chances.

I can't see a scenario where the NCAC doesn't get at least 2 bids and 3 is possible.  A real wild card, and this may be the biggest deal about not winning the league, is DePauw.  I think they will beat Wabash (although I'm not sure why many of us are still doubting Wabash).  DePauw is capable of winning the AQ and they have done so before and on the road.  I think they got the AQ the year OWU won the national title or perhaps I am off by a year.

[gobash83]

A real wild card, and this may be the biggest deal about not winning the league, is DePauw.  I think they will beat Wabash (although I'm not sure why many of us are still doubting Wabash). 

Even as an unrepentant Wabash fan, I can understand why you may harbor some doubt still as the team hasn't been very competitive in recent years.  Having seen both DePauw and Wabash play live multiple times this season, I think it will be a very competitive match and that the Little Giants get the Tigers this year, especially since it is being played in Crawfordsville.

If it turns out to be OWU, Kenyon, Wabash and DePauw in the NCAC tournament, I think OWU and Kenyon get into the NCAA tournament by reaching the finals of the NCAC tournament. Kenyon probably makes the NCAA tournament even with a first round loss in the NCAC tournament, while I think a loss in the first round by OWU in the NCAC tournament places it squarely on the bubble. 

I am not sure DePauw makes the NCAA tournament unless it gets the AQ given its losses to Ohio Northern and Franklin. Wabash may have a shot at a third slot for the conference, no matter how it does in the conference tournament, if they win 3 of their remaining 4 regular season matches. 

[PaulNewman]

Maybe Wabash is pretty good.  Scored twice in first 6 minutes away at Wittenberg (and Witt is improved this year).

[PaulNewman]

Agree wabash83.  DePauw's only chance is to win the AQ, but that wouldn't shock me.  And we might as well send the COY plaque to the Wabash coach right now.  He definitely has them pumped up and believing.  If they win out they are probably going to get a return home game with Kenyon.  And it's very conceivable that Kenyon will need that game which seems almost unthinkable after being ranked #2 for 6 or so weeks.  Wabash is this year's Oberlin.  The question in terms of 3 bids is that there is one less bid to go around nationally.

[PaulNewman]

Hope loses again, this time to Albion.

Midd down 1-0 at the half to Castleton State.

[KnightFalcon]

I too have been fortunate enough to see these quality teams compete this year and, call me crazy, but I can see Hope and Calvin making deep runs into this years tournament, just like 2011. Calvin has taken both conference games, but it's very difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season, especially a hungry side like Hope. I can see Hope snagging the AQ in the tournament and Calvin taking an at-large.

I have to respectfully disagree with you.  Calvin is clearly at another level compared with the rest of the MIAA, including Hope.  On top of that, if Hope reaches the championship game, it will be played on Calvin's natural grass field (where Hope lost 4-1 a few weeks ago in a game in which Calvin played a large portion of the second half down a man).  The Flying Dutchmen should be more concerned with fighting off Kalamazoo and Olivet for the conference's second position, thereby guaranteeing a first round home game.

Soccer geek - good points. It does seem like Calvin is at another level compared to the rest of the MIAA, but all you have to is go back to last season when Hope beat Calvin (in PKs) on Calvin's grass surface to take the AQ spot and leave Calvin at home come tournament time.

Last year was last year, KnightFalcon.  Calvin is a better squad this year (particularly in net), and Hope is not as strong as a year ago.  One only needs to look at their recent loss at home to Kalamazoo, a game in which the Hornets were the better team.  Of course, upsets do happen (that's why they play the games), but my crystal ball says Calvin rides into the NCAA tournament on a 18-game win streak.

Soccergeek I actually agree that Calvin is a better team this year and Hope certainly seems weaker. I think Souders is doing a great job coaching Calvin as well ... I hope they don't lose him to his alma mater.  That said, it's always tough to beat a team 3 times in one season, especially a rival. But I still would give Calvin a decided edge this year and expect them to win the conference tournament in a couple of weeks and the AQ spot that comes with it. Depending on their draw, they could make a deep run in the NCAA too.

[KnightFalcon]

Calvin beats Adrian 6-0. That, combined with Hope's loss, gives Calvin their 8th straight conference title with 3 games to play.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rutgers-Newark vs Stevens canceled due to lightning...

[PaulNewman]

Looks like the high of beating Kenyon was enough for Wabash tonight.  Scored twice basically coming off the bus and then held off Wittenberg for 84 minutes to get a 2-1 win.

[Midwest Soccer]

I'd agree that Kenyon was the more dangerous team today. That being said still wouldn't have surprised me to see OWU take all 3 points. I too was wondering about the Amolo play with the OWU GK. Fortunate for OWU to be outside the box and only a yellow to the GK.

I completely agree with you about DePauw being the wildcard. They are VERY dangerous and I could see them getting the 4 seed and winning both on the road to go to the tournament. I think they are going to beat Wabash and take the 3 seed and head to Gambier.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Thoughts from watching Kenyon-OWU live:

Two refereeing decisions had an impact. First, the ref nailed the OWU GK takedown. The foul was over a yard outside the box. Also, there were 2 OWU defenders closer to the goal than the GK, which is why I think he showed yellow. He probably could have shown red, but seemed reluctant to send players off. That leads into the second point, which is that Kenyon's #10 (Barnes) was extremely lucky to avoid a second yellow. The ref had been flashing them, and he already had one when he slid very late into an OWU player. If he wasn't on a yellow he would have gotten one right away. At the end of the day, better to let both teams play full if it's not clear-cut, so no real complaints. The ref also let them play physical, which favored Kenyon, but he was consistent with it.

Kenyon controlled most of the game from a territorial perspective. As usual, they pressed hard the first 20 minutes. OWU switched from 4-4-2 to 4-3-3, which gave them better defensive shape, but left only one forward on Kenyon's center backs. I thought they were exceptional, they handled Bloecher very well. That being said, Kenyon didn't have much of an end product. They had a ton of corners and long throws, but they didn't seem likely to score from open play. Amolo runs the channels, but he rarely had more than 1-2 guys to look for. Kenyon did get numbers forward on set pieces, and I felt if they were going to score it would be on a scrappy goal from pumping the ball into the box.

OWU had issues stringing passes together. The change in formation didn't help, and they seemed underwater. The few times they did play combinations they looked dangerous. Kenyon played a definite role there - OWU likes to play through the middle and their center backs completely that shut down. The positive is OWU has five straight shutouts and the back four was outstanding. They have to feel confident because a rematch will (probably) be at home and OWU's best non-D players won't all have another off-day.

Overall, fair result. Neither team deserved to lose, but neither really did enough to win.