2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Durantula]

Quick question. Are group C teams eligible to get group B at large bids if the group C bid goes to a different team?

[PaulNewman]

The Week Ahead

Tuesday

Scranton @ Oneonta -- An upset win wouldn't be enough to get Scranton at large bid but maybe would give them a big shot of confidence heading into the Landmark tourney.  I fully expect Oneonta to just keep adding up wins.

Luther @ Dubuque and St Olaf @ Augsburg -- The favorites want to avoid their at large chances taking a hit.

Roger Williams @ Gordon -- Gordon is locked in a battle with Nichols for home field so they need to prevail over a pesky RWU side.

Wednesday

Montclair @ Rutgers-Newark -- Rutgers-N had been rising steadily up the charts but finds itself in a sputter with one of the hottest teams in the nation coming to town.  How badly does Rutgers need this game???

Dickinson @ Muhlenberg -- Barring a major collapse and a lot of highly rated teams not getting a AQ both of these should be in good shape, and will provide the kind of high intensity competition to prepare them for a likely re-match in a week and a possible battle with F&M.

Tufts @ Bowdoin -- Tufts should be in good shape, but adding another win might protect them in the event of an early NESCAC tuorney exit.  More importantly Tufts wants to keep their confidence growing and put in the mind of future opponents that they are a real contender.  Bowdoin will try to muster the resolve for a good effort but just feels like at this point they are facing a hill too high to climb.

Denison @ OWU -- OWU doesn't drop NCAC regular season games ever, and they are even less likely to to drop one when the conference crown already is in their back pocket.  Denison deserves a ton of credit for getting to 5-2 in the conference where they can almost taste a NCAC tourney slot, but 'almost' may be as close as they get.  It seems nearly as unlikely that DePauw will lose in the final game of the season at home with the last NCAC spot on the line. 

DePauw at Wabash -- This is one almost impossible to predict.  DePauw has been very disappointing but still finds themselves miraculously very much in the hunt.  Wabash followed a very exciting week with a drubbing at Denison and who knows if the Little Giants were also deflated from not gaining a regional ranking last week.  A win doesn't do much for DePauw as they still would have to beat Denison, with Wabash most likely getting a win on the road at Wooster in their final game.

Elmhurst @ North Park -- Is North Park already in a position where they will have to win the CCIW tourney?

Conn College @ Wesleyan and Williams @ Hamilton -- These games might determine who gets home field in a first round #4 vs #5 NESCAC matchup.

MSOE @ Dominican -- The NACC regular season title is on the line.

Richard Stockton @ Rutgers-Camden -- Camden is looking much better but really cannot afford more losses unless they are going to win the NJAC tournament, and the Ospreys (did I get that right?) are still in the mix.

Colby at Bates -- Huge rivalry game for these two bottom dwellers who have caused some trouble for their more highly regarded NESCAC foes.  A final playoff slot also might be on the line.

Lasell @ Babson -- An upset here would not shock me and could be a final nail for the Beavers.

More later....

[Flying Weasel]

Quick question. Are group C teams eligible to get group B at large bids if the group C bid goes to a different team?

You got your B and C mixed up.  Pool B teams (independents and conferences without automatic berth) that do not receive the Pool B at-large berth get dumped into Pool C.  There's only one Pool B berth, but more than one Pool B team can be selected if they can make the cut competing against all the other Pool C teams.  That was the case two years ago, when both Centre and UW-Platteville got selected--Centere as the Pool B berth and UW-Platteville subsequently from Pool C.  Pool B is so weak this year that I can't see a second one getting an invite from Pool C.

[wchandy22]

Quick question. Are group C teams eligible to get group B at large bids if the group C bid goes to a different team?

I was about to reply but the Weasel was quicker on the draw (and isn't that always the case).  The one thing I wanted to add was the number for each pool.  A total of 61 teams are eligible for the NCAA tournament and the numbers for each pool are as follows:

Pool A: 42 teams
Pool B: 1 team
Pool C: 18 teams

[PaulNewman]

The Week Ahead (continued...)

Friday

Brandeis @ Wash U -- The shock here is that this game means next to nothing at this point in the season, other than Brandeis massaging its seeding and locking in some NCAA home games.

NYU @ Chicago and Case Western @ Carnegie Mellon -- Will 2 out of these 4 get bids, and will losses here eliminate 2 teams?  These all seem to be decent to good teams but none are great.

Rochester @ Emory -- One would assume that Rochester needs this game in the worst way, and how many can this year's Teflon squad, Emory, lose, before they get punished in the regional rankings?  The dynamics heading into this game make it one to watch.

Southwestern @ Trinity -- A nice little scrimmage for Trinity coming down the home stretch.  Maybe work on some new set plays for an anticipated Elite 8 rematch with Loras.

Saturday

Messiah @ Arcadia -- Messiah plays 8 v 11 and still wins 4-0.

F&M @ Dickinson -- F&M tries to cement the impression that they just aren't going to get beat.  Dickinson needs a win against a really big team before the NCAA tourney to get past a "round of 32 will be good enough" mentality.

Kenyon @ Oberlin -- The Ohio version of Macalester vs Carleton, Mass version of Amherst vs Williams and Maine version of any combo of the Maine NESCAC threesome.  Kenyon needs to put several strong outings in a row together to regain their belief in making a deep run.  Oberlin could be motivated to close with a national-level upset win, but they may be just as ready to mail it in, get out the golf clubs, and head to Aruba.

Whitworth @ Willamette -- With a win, a lot more folks would begin to realize that Willamette is enjoying a banner season, and they also might wrap up a bid in the process.

Wheaton @ North Park -- These two could be playing the first of what will be a two-legged deal, and if an at-large already is out of reach for North Park then the 2nd leg at Wheaton will be more important (although North Park getting to the CCIW final is far from guaranteed).

St Olaf @ Carleton -- A win here by St Olaf probably won't count as a strong win either, but nevertheless, if the Oles haven't enough done enough I think a win here earns them a bid.  Carleton has played some top teams tough, so no gimme for the Oles at all.

Denison @ DePauw -- There may be one, but I can't come up with a scenario where a NCAC playoff spot isn't on the line.  Assuming a Denison loss to OWU earlier in the week, DePauw most likely will need a win even if they beat Wabash (although I haven't confirmed who has the advantage if Denison and DePauw draw and both ended at 5-3-1).  Wabash should be safe for a spot regardless of the DePauw game as long as Denison doesn't get a result against OWU and assuming they don't concede a result against Wooster.

Grove City @ Thomas More -- A battle for the regular season PrAC crown.

Anderson @ Transylvania -- Transy will have the advantage of knowing what they need (vis-a-vis RHIT) after the Anderson-RHIT tilt earlier in the week.

MIT @ WPI -- The smart kids from WPI get a chance to put a notch in their belt versus the off-the-chart smart kids at MIT.

Haverford @ Swarthmore --  The Pennsylvania version of Kenyon-Oberlin, et al above, and playing for little more than pride.

Hope @ Kzoo -- Hope is in trouble.  And did I mention Kzoo has great video?

Rhodes @ Millsaps and Oglethorpe @ Centre -- I'm tired of waiting for a SAA team to really stand up and be counted.

Sunday

Brandeis @ Chicago -- Crystal ball says Brandeis is going to end Chicago's season right here.

Case Western @ Emory -- Emory will finally win a game...and will be rewarded with the #1 overall seed for the NCAA tourney over Messiah.

Rochester @ Carnegie Mellon -- IF Rochester gets a win (or maybe, maybe even a draw) versus Emory I see the Yellow Jackets coming out of Pittsburgh with a win and grabbing the very last at-large bid.  Immediately after the Selection Show, Dick Vitale will come on and start screaming about how the "little guys" (like Minnesota-Morris, Brockport, PS-Harrisburg, etc) never get a chance.  On the other hand, assuming Carnegie beats Case on Friday then a win or maybe even a draw with Rochester is enough to lock the Tartans into a bid given the relative weakness in the Great Lakes.

[Mr.Right]

I notice in the box score that Brandeis best player Rutgers transfer Michael Soboff is not in the line up against minnow Mt.Ida. Any "dice" fan know what the story is? If he is out long term that will definitely damper Brandeis' future

[PaulNewman]

Anyone else have the impression that compared to past couple of years when several deserving teams didn't make because of the overall strength of the at-large group this year is going to have at least 2 or 3 soft selections.  I'm looking at all of the regional rankings and don't see a huge number that are definitely deserving.  Let's go through them assuming that form holds although we know that will not be the case (though in some instances the same teams would still get a bid...like say Dickinson wins AQ instead of F&M and F&M is then an at-large lock.

In New England, sure bets look like:

Brandeis
Tufts
Amherst
Wheaton (MA)
Coast Guard

Then another group:

Middlebury
Gordon
WPI/Babson
Williams/Wesleyan

3-4 out of the above will be AQs, with at least 2 at large bids out of the first 5 presumed to already be in.  Let's assume Gordon wins an AQ and that 3 other teams get at large bids for a total of 5 at large bids.

In the East, the locks appear to be:

Oneonta
SLU
Cortland
RPI
Stevens

The only other ranked teams last week were:

Brockport
Rochester

Looks like 3 AQs, leaving 2 at large bids out of top group, and then how many more?  Let's say 2 more for a total of 4.

Mid-Atlantic looks very strong at the top but with little depth:

Messiah
F&M
Dickinson
Muhlenberg

I don't see anyone else definitely deserving at this point unless they win an AQ.  The above most likely gives us 2 AQs, so 2 would be at large bids.  Let's give them 1 more wild card at large for a total of 3.

The South-Atlantic is a mess.   The only absolute definites right now look like:

Montclair
Salisbury

Then there's:

Emory
Christopher Newport
Rutgers-Newark
Rutgers-Camden
Roanoke (addition)
Covenant
Richard Stockton (addition)
Centre
Millsaps (addition)
Greensboro (addition)
NC Wesleyan (addition)
Methodist (addition)

I don't know how many of those can be argued as deserving or deserving with a little more work, but let's say get 6 at larges. 

Wow, this is hard, because I'm already at the limit of 18/19, and I'm only through 4 regions with 4 to go, so I have to revamp.

Let's give New England 4 at large, East 3, Mid-Atlantic 2, South Atlantic 3 (which seems brutal but I'm already up to 12 with only 6/7 slots left unless I'm way off on this).

Great Lakes locks appear to be:

Kenyon
OWU
John Carroll

Assuming 2 AQs out of that group (very risky especially with the OAC and Ohio Northern coming on and Capital pretty good), we then have 1 at large so far and then:

Carnegie Mellon
Case Western
Wabash (let's say they win out and get to NCAC final, and how in world did Geneva get ranked over them?)

In any case, I don't see more than 2 at large bids coming out of Great Lakes, and if Kenyon or OWU don't win NCAC and JCU doens't win OAC then there is a real squeeze.  Don't, for instance, see room for the HCAC runner-up.

Down to 4/5 slots, with 3 regions left.  Can already see I can't do this!

In Central the locks are Calvin and Wheaton.  Given how many are left I can't see giving them an at large unless one of these two needs it, so 0 for now.  Hope and North Park bumming.

In the North, we have:

Loras
Luther
Wartburg

And then:

St Olaf
GAC
UW-W (which I think is the extra slot in Pool B, right?)

With another region left, can't see giving North more than 2 at larges (probably 2 IIAC teams), so that leaves 2 at larges for the West.

In the West regionally ranked last week we have:

Trinity
Whitworth
Hardin-Simmons (don't know what deal is here?)
Pomona
Colorado Coll
TX-Dallas

And we don't have:

Puget Sound
Willamette

After the AQs, how many should the West get?  2? 1? 0?  If 0 or 1, that leaves 1-2 more slots left over for the other 7 regions.

Glad I'm not on the committee!

[PaulNewman]

And now having attempted to go through the selections I see just how far off I was with that first sentence about some softer selections getting in.

[Mr.Right]

He had not played since MIT? Wow ggod stuff w/o him

[blooter442]

I notice in the box score that Brandeis best player Rutgers transfer Michael Soboff is not in the line up against minnow Mt.Ida. Any "dice" fan know what the story is? If he is out long term that will definitely damper Brandeis' future

Soboff got a bruised foot during the MIT match 3 weeks ago. Not only does he contribute goals and assists, he is an integral part to the Judges' physical game which, though obviously not Brandeis' strength, has improved a lot this year thanks to Soboff, Lanahan, and J. Ocel, as well as the return of R. Lynch, who missed last year with injury.

However, from what I was told at tonight's game, Soboff will be back for Friday's game against WashU.

[blooter442]

He had not played since MIT? Wow ggod stuff w/o him

Yeah, they took him out halfway through that game. Certainly missed him against Rochester.

[Mr.Right]

All regions are beset this year with teams with good winning % and bad SOS or average winning % and very strong SOS. This makes it all the harder. However, they usually do not give 4 Pool C's to the east region. Brockport St will not get in with 6 ties. Stevens has to win their league and after checking coach Apple is not on the committee, so do not expect Rochester in there either. Pool C will come from RPI / SLU and if I were RPI I would not lose in the semi-final to Vassar. Cortland and Oneonta will both get in.

UAA usually gets 4-5 teams every year. Brandeis seems to be the only lock as the others will start knocking each other out. Also, do not expect Wash U and NYU to lose the rest of their games so someone else will grab an extra loss.

Nescac will get Amherst and Tufts.  However unlikely as it may be for either team I would not lose both of their next 2 games. Wesleyan and Williams have very good SOS with not so good winning %. If either of those teams make the Nescac final they will be the third Nescac. Midd should be ok but they also need the nescac final. They will be 9-3-3 and if they win 1st round 10-3-3 and lose in semi 10-4-3 thats not good enough with their SOS.

Gordon AD is chair of the new England committee so I have to believe they are in that ranking for that reason. 13-3-1 with a 560 SOS and a tough home match against Roger Williams to finish and an even tougher first round game with WNEC does not bode well for them.

Your mid-atlantic looks perfect with most likely 2 Pool C's with one team winning F&M's conference and Messiah getting their league.

South-less complicated than you made it. All those additions you have added have no shot. Rutgers Camden while their schedule is one of the more impressive ones I have seen just have to many losses. Centre and Covenant no shot. RNU if they beat Montclair will get in however if they lose that game they might be in trouble unless they get to the final of NJAC. Montclair St is in. Salisbury might still have work to do but they are close along with CNU. That conference is underrated in my opinion.

Kenyon,OWU are in and one should get AQ. Depauw and Wabash no chance. Carnegie Mellon and Case Western both need to go 2-0-1 or maybe 3-0-0 to get in.

[oldonionbag]

Thoughts?

October 28, 2014
D3soccer.com Men's Top 25, Week 9
Through games of Sunday, October 26, 2014

#   School (1st Pl. Votes)   Record   Pts.   Prev.
1   Messiah (25)   15-0-1   625   1
2   F&M                  14-0-1   594   2
3   Trinity (Texas)   17-1-0   571   3
4   Oneonta State   15-0-2   545   4
5   Brandeis           14-1-0   528   5
6   Calvin           15-2-0   486   7
7   Kenyon           13-1-1   458   6
8   Loras           13-2-1   456   8
9   Whitworth   13-1-2   409   9
10   Montclair State   15-3-0   361   11
11   Muhlenberg   10-1-2   353   13
12   Wheaton (Ill.)   14-3-0   334   12
13   Amherst           10-1-3   327   10
14   St. Lawrence   13-2-1   316   14
15   Wheaton (MA)   14-2-2   246   15
16   Luther           14-2-1   230   19
17   Ohio Wesleyan   12-3-2   223   18
18   Tufts           10-1-3   195   23
19   Salisbury           11-1-5   174   16
20   Coast Guard   13-1-2   144   20
21   Emory           11-3-1   113   21
22   Chris. Newport   12-3-4   69   17
23   Dickinson           11-3-1   67   22
24   Colorado Coll.   13-3-2   60   —
25   Cortland State   13-3-1   53   —

Dropped out: No. 24 Wabash, No. 25 North Park

Receiving Votes: RPI 35, WPI 25, Methodist 21, Wabash 17, John Carroll 15, Stevens 14, Elmhurst 12, North Park 6, Pomona-Pitzer 6, Rutgers-Newark 5, Roanoke 5, St. Scholastica 5, Lycoming 5, Penn State-Harrisburg 3, Thomas More 3, Milwaukee Engineering 2, New York University 2, Puget Sound 2, Rochester 2, Knox 2, Middlebury 1

[Mr.Right]

My bad I tailed off but to finish off my south region, I am with you as Emory has no business there with a 1-3-1 conference record. You should have to be .500 in your conference or better to be even looked at. #1 seed is inexplicable.

Central region- Wheaton Illinois and Calvin are locks. I really do not think Hope has a great schedule and I am not a fan of the MIAA playing double games within the conference as it hurts Hope SOS.  North Park defines being on the bubble. Chicago needs to go 3-0-0 to finish and if they do that I think they would win the UAA. At the very least they need to beat Brandeis. North Central has a decent schedule but they do not get in.

North- I like Loras and Wartburg to make it. Luther to me has a weak schedule and has a lot of work to do. UWW has some nice wins and a good schedule and they should get a Pool B. The others are toast

West-Trinity and Whitworth work for me. Colorado College has a weak schedule and was ranked in D3 poll for a long time and that shocked me. The rest are toast.

[PaulNewman]

Mr.Right, let's say Dominican gets AQ.  Are you not giving a bid to Milwaukee Engineering, currently 9-0-0 and 15-3?

On the South Atlantic, I know all the teams I added aren't going to make it but wanted to highlight some teams with good records and just how chaotic that region is.