2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

^^^^Understood, and I think most of us can live with a system that has a Wabash on the fringe (your example of last few out or last few in), but I can't accept that in the Luther example since just 7 days before the committee themselves saw fit to rank Luther at #2, and then, with no losses or draws over the next week, drops them completely out of the rankings.  The Calvin/North Park switch is almost as bad, although the consequences for Calvin most likely are not as ditre as they could be with Luther.  If I was a Luther fan/player/coach (I'm not) I would be outraged, especially if in 2 weeks they aren't in the tournament with several inferior teams in front of them.

[jknezek]

Nothing is ever perfect. There is always going to be a team that feels slighted. I know in football the only RRs that count are the last super-secret ones. Therefore, much like the FBS rankings that were released this week, the preliminary rankings are irrelevant. Is soccer the same?

[lastguyoffthebench]

In terms of SOS vs the rest of the nation:

Lycoming (.497) is tied at 218 with Goucher.                                                           
Luther (.493) is tied at 224 with Howard Payne and Wilkes.                                   IIAC teams:  Loras (17th), Wartburg (83rd), Dubuque (95th), Simpson (203rd)
Wabash (.489) is tied at 237 with Ozarks, Rivier, DeSales, St. Joseph's (Maine).    NCAC teams:  Kenyon (40th), Ohio Wesleyan (47th), DePauw (60th), Denison (130th)


Would you rather see a third or fourth NESCAC, a fifth UAA, a fourth Centennial team, or third NJAC team again?   The little guys deserve a chance, but the power conference teams that go out and schedule tough games outside of conference should be rewarded if they are both on the bubble.     


NOTE:
UAA has 7 teams in the top 25 in regards to SOS:  Chicago (1), Brandeis (2), Rochester (4), Emory (7), Case (8), CMU (13), Wash-MO (20). 
NESCAC has 3 teams in the top 25:  Amherst (18), Tufts (22), Williams (25)
Centennial has 4 teams in the top 25:   Haverford (6), Swat (10), Dickinson (23), JHU is (30th).   [F&M and Mules should be locks, Dickinson and those listed will battle]

[lastguyoffthebench]

^^^^Understood, and I think most of us can live with a system that has a Wabash on the fringe (your example of last few out or last few in), but I can't accept that in the Luther example since just 7 days before the committee themselves saw fit to rank Luther at #2, and then, with no losses or draws over the next week, drops them completely out of the rankings.  The Calvin/North Park switch is almost as bad, although the consequences for Calvin most likely are not as ditre as they could be with Luther.  If I was a Luther fan/player/coach (I'm not) I would be outraged, especially if in 2 weeks they aren't in the tournament with several inferior teams in front of them.

Yes, that was my beef with the committee.   If this .500 was going to be in effect, why even put Luther in the rankings in the first place?   That is way too much of a jump for a difference of .03 - .10


North Park SOS is at 29th vs Calvin 57th.   There is no logical reason to bump NP ahead of Calvin and the same goes for Luther to be bounced.   


If SOS is determined to be that crucial, then the power conferences are going to eat up this Pool C bids (especially in a year where most conf tourneys are wide open).  Some of the highly rated SOS teams that reach the conf semi final or final are going to bump out the little guys that fail to win their respective conferences).  Yes, it happens, but I can't remember a year where there were 30-32 teams fighting for the 20 Pool C bids.   

When the brackets come out, usually the case is made for about 3 or 4 teams.  Now, we will see that there are those 12 or so teams that could/should have made it.

[Christan Shirk]

D3soccer.com has been informed by the D-III Men's Soccer Committee that no .500 SOS threshold exists in order to be ranked.  Despite our request for an alternate explanation for Luther's drop from the No. 2 position in the first North Region rankings to unranked in the second weekly rankings, the Committee declined to provide any explanation on the grounds that the committee's conversations/discussions are intended to be confidential.

[Christan Shirk]

I don't know the details of the how they determine the SOS, . . .

You can check out the Strength-of-Schedule (SOS) calculation in the "Strength-of-Schedule" section on this D3soccer.com webpage or go right to the source, Appendix D (pg. 45) of the Division III Soccer Pre-Championships Manual.

[PaulNewman]

lastguy, IMHO 3 and only 3 Centennial teams are deserving. 

In the NESCAC I can't see going beyond 3 -- Amherst, Tufts and the survivor of Midd/Will/Wes -- UNLESS we get Midd/Wes winner vs Williams in NESCAC final (and even then I'm not sure).

I can't see more than two from the NJAC unless Camden gets to NJAC final.  I think Newark is in after beating Montclair.

The UAA is tough.  I see Brandeis as the only clear-cut selection at the moment.  I can't see giving them more than 3.

The argument that the teams in these top conferences beat up on each other I think only goes so far.  In each instance above the teams in question have had some dubious losses outside their conferences.

And on the SOS I would add one thing.  There are teams with lower SOSs who literally have played no strong teams, and then there are teams with lower SOSs like Luther and even Wabash, Puget Sound, Willamette, etc who have played at least some very good teams and looked good doing so.

[Gregory Sager]

North Park SOS is at 29th vs Calvin 57th.   There is no logical reason to bump NP ahead of Calvin and the same goes for Luther to be bounced. 

Yes, but, as you yourself pointed out yesterday, NPU has a better winning percentage vs. regional ranked opponents than does Calvin.

Although I'm obviously an NPU partisan, I'm not actually defending the decision. I'm just trying to explain what may be the reasoning behind it.

Is the North Park more of a formality that while Calvin has more wins vs regionally ranked teams, NP win percentage vs those is better (2-1 vs Calvins 3-2).

I'm not sure if the soccer committee handles this differently, but the basketball committee is given leeway to liberally interpret RRO data. In other words, it can either put the accent upon games played vs. RRO (which would favor Calvin in this case) or winning percentage (which would favor NPU in this case). I would guess that, without looking at the NCAA D3 men's soccer championship handbook, either the committee has that leeway or else is tasked with examining RRO results strictly through the lens of winning percentage.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon's Justice, Carney and Mitsuyama named as Academic All-District selections.  Very deserving, and all 3 would make for great candidates for a NCAA Postgrad scholarship.  Several other Kenyon seniors meet the criteria for All-District but I doubt they would ever give any school more than 3 spots.  Congrats also to Bloecher from OWU for his second consecutive selection, and also to Brandeis players Savonen and Lanahan.  I haven't checked out any other schools yet.

I think I mentioned this before, but Justice should be a lock as an All-American (and Savonen should receive serious consideration for his overall career at Brandeis and outstanding senior season).  Justice also IMHO should receive serious consideration for national DPOY.

On a side note, Mr.Right, I don't want to get you flamed up again on the Kenyon vs Williams nonsense, but thought you might be curious to know that Mitsuyama's sister is one of the top players for the Williams women's squad.

BTW, Kenyon is 1st in the nation in goals allowed and goals against percentage.

[PaulNewman]

Live!  From Cougar Field in Morris, Minnesota.  The Cougars are ready to start the 2nd half against St Scholastica, down 2-1. 

Did you know UM-M has gotten to conference final like 9 or 10 years in a row and always lose to SSU?  They won once in 2011 and made the NCAA tourney.

I love D3...and the internet.  How many students would you guess go to UM-M?  15K?  10K?  at least 7500?  No, the answer is 1900 and Morris in a public liberal arts school and looks like a really interesting school at that.

And gotta respect the Cougars having a grass field way up there in the Northland.

Go Cougars!

Update:  CSS up 5-1 now.

[wchandy22]

D3soccer.com has been informed by the D-III Men's Soccer Committee that no .500 SOS threshold exists in order to be ranked.  Despite our request for an alternate explanation for Luther's drop from the No. 2 position in the first North Region rankings to unranked in the second weekly rankings, the Committee declined to provide any explanation on the grounds that the committee's conversations/discussions are intended to be confidential.

There are a few reasons why the committee would not want to explain its thought process with regards to regional rankings just one of those being the complexity involved with such decisions.  From what I have discerned, this process uses complex differential equations with unknown roots.  The two diagrams below highlight just some of the difficulties the committee is faced with when assigning these regional rankings.

Luther -- Regional Rankings (Oct. 22, 2014)
http://www.undisputedsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dart-Board-2.png

Luther -- Regional Rankings (Oct. 29, 2014)
http://www.undisputedsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/DART-BOARD-0.png

[PaulNewman]

Nice job wchandy!

NYU scores to go up 1-0 on Chicago.  I assume this would be the final nail for UC.

CMU and Case 0-0 at the half.  Looks like even game which would be expected.

URoch looks more aggressive and getting better chances against Emory.  Still 0-0. 

[PaulNewman]

Emory does have their whole women's (national champs) and men's (3rd behind Kenyon and Denison) swim teams in swim attire cheering them on. 

[Mr.Right]

Doesn't Chicago have the best SOS in the country? If they do than they would still be on the fringe even with their record

[PaulNewman]

Case just scored on CMU.

And Chicago just tied it up with NYU.