2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Ryan H, do you know who has tiebreaker between Wabash and DPU if Wabash loses to Wooster (down 1-0 right now) or between OWU and Kenyon if OWU somehow lost tonight?

[PaulNewman]

Wabash ties it up.

[njf1003]

F&M and Dickinson tied up at 0 in the 1st OT.

[PaulNewman]

F&M just pelting Dickinson but still 0-0 in 1st OT.

Just heard 3rd hand that Kenyon has lowest goals against average for all three divisions of NCAA.

Whitworth and Willamette 0-0 and in 1st OT.

[PaulNewman]

Dickinson somehow holds on for a draw.

Willamette earns a hard-fought draw with Whitworth and still (narrowly) in driver's seat in NWC with 2 games to go.

Wabash scores in the final minute or two to sneak by Wooster.

[Dark Knight]

Calvin finished up the regular season with a 6-1 victory vs. an above average team in Olivet. Olivet decided not to pack the box, as most of Calvin's opponents have lately, but played aggressively the whole game, getting a goal but giving up six. That gave Calvin a 14-0-0 record in the MIAA, the first time that has been done, and a 51-3 goal differential. According to Massey, the MIAA is the sixth strongest DIII soccer conference after UAA, CICW, NESCAC, Centennial, and NE W&M.

Calvin's really coming into their own in this third year of coach Souder. Calvin's style is much different compared to the style that got them two national runner up finishes in recent years. This team is more possession oriented, with many long sequences of quick one-touch passes, but they also have a couple of very fast forwards and have scored on some through balls and breakaways as well.

The big question mark in my mind is how Calvin will do in the tournament vs. top teams. The MIAA doesn't have any top-25 teams apart from Calvin.

[PaulNewman]

Haverford scored with 2 secs left in regulation to take Swat to OT and gets last playoff spot in Centennial with the 1-1 draw.

[Flying Weasel]

Haverford scored with 2 secs left in regulation to take Swat to OT and gets last playoff spot in Centennial with the 1-1 draw.

Five teams make the Centennial tournament with a 4-5 play-in game.  So Johns Hopkins got the final playoff spot winning the tie-breaker between them, Ursinus, and Swarthmore for the #5 seed.  Haverford got the #4 Seed.

[KnightFalcon]

Calvin finished up the regular season with a 6-1 victory vs. an above average team in Olivet. Olivet decided not to pack the box, as most of Calvin's opponents have lately, but played aggressively the whole game, getting a goal but giving up six. That gave Calvin a 14-0-0 record in the MIAA, the first time that has been done, and a 51-3 goal differential. According to Massey, the MIAA is the sixth strongest DIII soccer conference after UAA, CICW, NESCAC, Centennial, and NE W&M.

Calvin's really coming into their own in this third year of coach Souder. Calvin's style is much different compared to the style that got them two national runner up finishes in recent years. This team is more possession oriented, with many long sequences of quick one-touch passes, but they also have a couple of very fast forwards and have scored on some through balls and breakaways as well.

The big question mark in my mind is how Calvin will do in the tournament vs. top teams. The MIAA doesn't have any top-25 teams apart from Calvin.

Dark Knight I agree that Calvin is playing very well right now and that Souders has done a great job implementing a possession style that seems to be delivering good results. That said, I have seen them play both @Wheaton (lose 2-3) and OWU (win 3-2) and both times Calvin looked a bit slow. So I think against quicker, more-skilled teams in the tournament, they may have trouble. But Vegter is the real deal and he has some good running mates up top with Pruis, broekhuizen and others. They are a confident team and will be a challenge come tournament time. Especially if they get to host some games on that narrow field of theirs.

[KnightFalcon]

Wheaton finally scores on a goal mouth scramble to go up 1-0 @North Park. Central Defender Steve
Fernandes gets credit. 12 minutes to play

[Ryan Harmanis]

Ryan H, do you know who has tiebreaker between Wabash and DPU?

Moot point, but I believe the tiebreaker is record versus top team, then the next team, and so on. So Wabash would have had it for beating Kenyon, and OWU would have had it for beating Wabash. Doubt OWU will be thrilled getting DePauw instead of Denison. I believe Depauw has won or tied 4 out of 5 at OWU.

[PaulNewman]

My regional rankings based on secret proprietary algorithm.  Dividers for each group indicate work to do to get bid.

New England

1. Brandeis
2. Amherst
3. Wheaton (MA)
4. Coast Guard
5. Tufts
_________________________________

6. Middlebury (needs to beat Bowdoin at minimum)
7. Babson (pretty good resume but bordering on too many losses; must beat MIT and a result against Wheaton would be enough?)
8. Gordon (probably played themselves out of at large picture but maybe loss in conf final enough?)
9. WPI (loss at home to MIT last night a killer; must beat Coast Guard and hope Babson falters)
10. Bowdoin (needs to win tourney or lose final in PKs)
11. Nichols

East

1. Oneonta St
2. SLU
3. Cortland St.
__________________________

4. Brockport (win over Cortland would be very helpful)
5. RPI (not sure why RPI isn't getting much at-large love)
6. Stevens (should win conference AQ)
7. Rochester (must win last two and both are winnable and then in conversation)
8. Hobart
9. Vassar
10. NYU
11. Medaille

Mid-Atlantic

1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Muhlenberg
4. Dickinson (borderline for Dickinson but a win over Muhlenberg on neutral field should be enough and tie with F&M good result)
_______________________

5. Haverford (for me they have to win Cenntennial tourney, which is possible if get by JHU and upset F&M)
6. Lycoming (great record despite SOS and beat Rochester)
7. Eastern (under the radar with strong record)
8. Catholic
9. Johns Hopkins
10. Swarthmore

South Atlantic

1. Montclair St
2. Salisbury/CNU
3. CNU/Salisbury
4. Emory
5. Rutgers-Newark
______________________

6. Roanoke (I would have them in but there seems to be resistance so put them here)
7. Centre
8. Rutgers-Camden
9. Birmingham-Southern
10. Covenant
11. Virginia Wesleyan

Great Lakes

1. Kenyon
2. OWU
3. John Carroll
_____________________

4. Carnegie Mellon/Case (I'm leaning towards one of these two get in)
5. Case/Carnegie Mellon
6. Wabash (deserve to be here based on whole body of work)
7. Thomas More (great record)
8. Rose-Hulman (not sure on SOS but have played some strong teams...Centre, DePauw, North Park, etc)
9. Penn St-Behrend
10. Ohio Northern/DePauw
11. Transylvania

Central

1. Calvin
2. Wheaton (Ill)
_______________________

3. Dominican (slow start but played back into contention if doesn't win AQ over MSOE)
4. Chicago (one more result might do it Brandeis today would be huge and actually that might get them AQ)
5. North Park
6. MSOE
7. Elmhurst
8. Kzoo
9. Hope

North

1. Loras
2. Luther/Wartburg
3. Wartburg/Luther
______________________

4. UW-W
5. GAC
6. St Olaf
7. St Scholastica
8. UW-Osh
9. St Johns/Carleton/Macalester

West

1. Trinity (TX)
2. Whitworth (good chance this is going to be at-large)
________________________

3. Colorado College
4. Willamette
5. Puget Sound
6. Texas-Dallas
7. UC Santa Cruz
8. Pomona-Pitzer

[Soccergeek]

My regional rankings based on secret proprietary algorithm.  Dividers for each group indicate work to do to get bid.

Central

1. Calvin
2. Wheaton (Ill)
_______________________

3. Dominican (slow start but played back into contention if doesn't win AQ over MSOE)
4. Chicago (one more result might do it Brandeis today would be huge and actually that might get them AQ)
5. North Park
6. MSOE
7. Elmhurst
8. Kzoo
9. Hope

While I can't opine with as much credibility on the other regions, I have seen most of the top teams in the Central play this season.  Based upon this, and giving credence to each team's record against ranked opponents (as well as winning percentage and SOS), I would offer the following revisions to your rankings:

Central

1. Calvin (unquestioned cream of the crop)
2. Wheaton (Ill)
3. North Park
_______________________

4. Kalamazoo (the only remaining team with a winning record (3-2-1) against ranked opponents, including dominant wins over Chicago, Hope (twice) and a tie against Elmhurst in which their coach played their second team most of the game)
5. Elmhurst
6. Dominican
7. Chicago (could rise or drop based upon today's result vs Brandeis)
8. Hope
9. MSOE

[Off Pitch]

My regional rankings based on secret proprietary algorithm.  Dividers for each group indicate work to do to get bid.

New England

1. Brandeis
2. Amherst
3. Wheaton (MA)
4. Coast Guard
5. Tufts
_________________________________

6. Middlebury (needs to beat Bowdoin at minimum)
7. Babson (pretty good resume but bordering on too many losses; must beat MIT and a result against Wheaton would be enough?)

If it is not too much of a secret, just curious how Middlebury jumps ahead of Babson with a lower winning % and a much lower SOS.

[PaulNewman]

North Park has 5 losses.  For my vote they are teetering on the edge.  And they lost to Dominican.

Chicago I was just about to write off but completely against the run of play they just scored on Brandeis and might get the win with only 10 min left.