2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Mr.Right]

Those hand balls have been getting called more and more. It is ridiculous.

[Mr.Right]

I still say based on the rankings Newark is out and Camden needs to win NJAC. They both deserve to be in it but were given no love by the committee.

[PaulNewman]

lastguy, I think Rochester and CMU probably thought they were playing for a bid and that's partly why game got so supercharged.  If Rochester doesn't falter at home against Case I see the Yellow Jackets getting the bid.  I see CMU as out no matter what happens with Emory and Emory also will be wanting to make sure they are in.

[PaulNewman]

Babson
Middlebury
Gordon (if needed)
WPI
Brockport
RPI (if needed)
Rochester
Haverford
Lycoming
Rutgers-Camden
Rutgers-Newark
Roanoke (if needed)
Centre (if needed)
Covenant (if needed)
Birm-Southern (if needed)

Pick 4-5

Carnegie Mellon
Thomas More (if needed)
Rose-Hulman (if needed)
Chicago (if needed)
Elmhurst
Kzoo/Hope winner
St Olaf/GAC loser (barring upsets today)
North Park (if needed)
Dominican/MSOE loser
Colorado College

Pick 3-4

[Mr.Right]

Gordon and RPI need to win their leagues no Pool C for them. Babson and Midd need to get to the final to even get on the bubble. Brockport needs a win today. Lycoming and Haverford are out.

UAA will get 4
NJAC will get 2 should be 3
Nescac will get 2 maybe 3

Those 3 leagues are the best in the country

[PaulNewman]

I would put the Centennial right there with them (at least this year).

[PaulNewman]

Tough call on Newark Mr.Right.  I have them in.  Can't see picking Babson, Midd, UR, RPI, etc over them.  If Brockport wins today I would have Newark and Brockport at the top of that list along with Camden (if Camden loses final).  Not sure who I would pick between Newark and Brockport but if the latter wins today I think both get in.  I borrowed your "eye test" last night and both Rutgers teams looked like they belong.

[gobash83]

Kenyon tops Wabash in a solid, workmanlike (if less than attractive) 3-0 win.  The Lords have spurts of putting passes together and looking dynamic and very dangerous, but then they often are their own worst enemy as they get undisciplined and lose their rhythm.  8 offside calls today which is an outrageous number and I believe in one stretch when the subs first came in 4 offside calls in a row.  Also had 4 yellows today which is too many, along with some other unnecessary fouls.  Their whole flow gets too disrupted leading to choppy play, lack of sustained possession, and resorting to too many long balls over the top.  They are going to have to play better, more focused soccer for 90 minutes if they hope to do some real damage in the tournament.  They are a team that needs to play very aggressively with high energy but they have to still play good soccer.  On the plus side, the did rack up another shutout and Amolo is scoring again which is good news.  Congrats to Wabash on a great season.  The turnaround time for them after just traveling to Wooster Saturday and getting home very late that night could not have been helpful.

While a disappointing outcome for Wabash, this has been a fantastic season.  The soccer program at Wabash has struggled for many years.  Coach Keller has made tremendous progress since arriving in Crawfordsville in 2012 and is doing all of the right things to build a sustainable program.  While there may be some bumps in the road in the future, hopefully this season signals the addition of another competitive program in the NCAC.  I hope the conference recognizes Chris for the team's success this year.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Based on the eye test I would put UR about 6 or 7 spots ahead of Camden in the Pool C they lose to MSU.    Rochester is already regionally ranked and should probably be #4 in the East rankings, whereas Camden hasn't even cracked the top 7 in the South Atlantic.


Rochester should be 9-5-3.       Quality wins:  Brandeis, SLU, CMU.  Draw vs Oneonta St.     Bad losses: Morrisville St, NYU.
Rutgers-Camden 13-8-1.           Quality wins:  Rutgers-Newark (2x), Eastern.    Bad losses:  Cabrini, Rowan.   


I agree with you Mr. Right that UAA will get 4, NESCAC 3, NJAC 2 or 3, and Centennial 3.

Newark only has one quality win (MSU), and in my opinion would be on the bubble.   Is that win over MSU enough to get them in?  The cancelled game vs Stevens is going to hurt their chances as well.

[PaulNewman]

So lastguy, based on that analysis, and if MSU beats Camden, how do you get 2-3 from NJAC in the tournament?

And would you also have Babson and/or Middlebury ahead of Newark and Camden?

You're probably correct about UAA getting 4 although seems like 1 too many.

[lastguyoffthebench]

After a quick look, in no particular order for Pool C spots that fill up pretty quick:

Brandeis/Emory/Rochester/Chicago (1 AQ, 3 pool C).
Tufts
Dickinson/Mules/F&M (1 AQ, two Pool C)
CNU/Salisbury
Middlebury/Amherst (AQ and Pool C)
OWU/Kenyon
Loras/Wartburg
Coast Guard/Wheaton MA
Cortland St
Brockport
Camden
Newark
Hope
RPI
Babson
Centre
North Park

[Mr.Right]

Ok that is a bit more accurate.  The bottom half of those teams have work to do starting tonight. Eye test I like those NJAC teams better than UR, RPI , Brochport, babson, Midd etc.

However, they will not get in based on the rankings. The most losses a team has had is 6 to get a Pool C with no ties. Camden needs to win it. Brockport has to many ties and they need to beat Cortland. Newark deserves to be in but they are history

[lastguyoffthebench]

Williams got in last year with a 10-6 record after losing to Amherst twice so Newark "could" have a chance.  Williams also made it to the NESCAC final, had a stronger SOS whereas Newark this year didn't

Also, that 60% WP is be on par with Rutgers-Camden record this year.   

[Mr.Right]

Newark's SOS is their downfall. They will be out.

[lastguyoffthebench]

MSU's webpage on has a live stats link.   Here's to hoping this one gets streamed.