2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

After a quick look, in no particular order for Pool C spots that fill up pretty quick:

Brandeis/Emory/Rochester/Chicago (1 AQ, 3 pool C).
Tufts
Dickinson/Mules/F&M (1 AQ, two Pool C)
CNU/Salisbury
Middlebury/Amherst (AQ and Pool C)
OWU/Kenyon
Loras/Wartburg
Coast Guard/Wheaton MA
Cortland St
Brockport
Camden
Newark
Hope
RPI
Babson
Centre
North Park

So out of this grouping, I see 10 definites for Pool C -- 2 from UAA with Rochester still on bubble and presuming Chicago is safe even with a loss to Wash U; Tufts; 2 from Centennial; CNU/Salisbury loser; OWU/Kenyon loser (assuming DePauw doesn't win AQ); Loras/Wartburg loser (if Luther doesn't win AQ); Coast Guard/Wheaton loser; and Cortland.

So for me in your list that leaves Rochester, Middlebury (I think they have to beat Bowdoin at least), Brockport, Camden and Newark (and MSU would make 11 above if they lose final), Hope, RPI, Babson, Centre, North Park.

Not sure why you have Hope in there, and I would add Luther, St Olaf/GAC loser, Colorado College, WPI to the mix....

So for last 7-8 Pool C spots I would be choosing between (in no particular order) -- Rochester, Middlebury, Babson, Brockport, Camden, Newark, RPI, Babson, WPI, North Park, Hope, Centre, Luther, St Oaf/GAC loser, Colorado College, and for fun I'm going to add Dominican (if they lose), Roanoke (if they lose), Carnegie Mellon, Thomas More (if they lose), John Carroll (if they lose), and 1 wild card that will be unexpected (like a Gordon, Elmhurst, Covenant, Catholic, etc).

[chelseafc30]

Does anyone want to be bold and predict who the top seeds in each region would be if the bracket was made today? First round bye teams?

[lastguyoffthebench]

First round bye teams would be Messiah, Trinity, Oneonta St.   Not sure on the field if there will be 3 or 4 byes.

I believe there were talks about Oneonta St. field earlier.   Do they have the venue to support possibly hosting all the way through.  If Brandeis had won the AQ (which they still can), they could possibly get the other bye.

[PaulNewman]

Don't know about byes, but seems to me that Kenyon and Calvin are battling for the top seed and hosting in that region with Wheaton (Ill) lurking if both stumble.

[PaulNewman]

For the last 7-8 slots left, I'll start with taking 1 of the Rutgers teams and whoever fares better between Babson and WPI (Babson of they beat MIT and WPI loses to Coast Guard).  I'm putting Luther through regardless of the rankings.  That leaves me with 4-5 slots left.  I'm taking loser of St Olaf/GAC and I'll take North Park because they have been ranked so highly.  That leaves 2-3 slots.  And the remaining candidates on my list (presuming John Carroll does win AQ would be Rochester, Middlebury, Brockport, RPI, Colorado College, Centre, Hope, the other Rutgers team, Carnegie Mellon, Roanoke (if needed), Dominican (if needed), and a wild card (Thomas More, Gordon, Elmhurst, Kzoo, etc).  If Luther really is not going to get a bid then we're talking 3-4 slots out of the above.  Assuming 4 slots left, I'm going to take Rochester (because no one thinks they aren't getting in), Middlebury (if beats Bowdoin), Brockport (if they win today), and probably Colorado College.

[gustiefan04]

For the last 7-8 slots left, I'll start with taking 1 of the Rutgers teams and whoever fares better between Babson and WPI (Babson of they beat MIT and WPI loses to Coast Guard).  I'm putting Luther through regardless of the rankings.  That leaves me with 4-5 slots left.  I'm taking loser of St Olaf/GAC and I'll take North Park because they have been ranked so highly.  That leaves 2-3 slots.  And the remaining candidates on my list (presuming John Carroll does win AQ would be Rochester, Middlebury, Brockport, RPI, Colorado College, Centre, Hope, the other Rutgers team, Carnegie Mellon, Roanoke (if needed), Dominican (if needed), and a wild card (Thomas More, Gordon, Elmhurst, Kzoo, etc).  If Luther really is not going to get a bid then we're talking 3-4 slots out of the above.  Assuming 4 slots left, I'm going to take Rochester (because no one thinks they aren't getting in), Middlebury (if beats Bowdoin), Brockport (if they win today), and probably Colorado College.

I will be very interested to see if Luther reappears in this week's regional ranking. If not, I think they are pretty much toast when it comes to a Pool C bid. My guess is they aren't in the rankings again due to low SOS, which only dropped after their most recent match. likely Luther's only way into the dance is the conference AQ.

It seems every year, that SOS plays very heavily into the selection process, and its next to impossible for a team to earn a Pool C if they do not appear in the regional rankings. The only way I see Luther overcoming that hurdle is to win the AQ.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Eastern still not in the Mid-Atlantic region...   .492 SOS

Lycoming in with .504 SOS

Tufts falling below Babson is madness and Middlebury also dropping??

Newark bumping that high to 3 while MSU drops from 2 to 7 vs a regionally ranked opponent.

Luther still getting boned with .488 SOS

Looks like Noke is also in a must win situation.

[dontshootthegoose]

Luther did not make the regional rankings again for the North, most likely opening up a C bid.

[oldonionbag]

Agreed. Tufts below Babson is insanity....their first loss since September (and that was a loss to Brandeis) drops them to 6th? I don't get it...

[Flying Weasel]

Newark bumping that high to 3 while MSU drops from 2 to 7 vs a regionally ranked opponent.

Wow! Montclair State would appear to be in a must-win NJAC title situation!  Covenant better than MSU?!?!  Centre with their eight blemishes?!?!  Crazy!

[oldonionbag]

I'll have whatever the ranking committee's having

[lastguyoffthebench]

Agreed. Tufts below Babson is insanity....their first loss since September (and that was a loss to Brandeis) drops them to 6th? I don't get it...

4th in the NEWMAC, 5th in the region!   Madness!

[PaulNewman]

FW or lastguy, I was hoping one of you would provide some rationale for these rankings.

Babson over Tufts?  Babson did play some very good teams (Oneonta, Brandeis, Williams, Bowdoin, WNEC) but also had more than their fair share of cupcakes (Mt. Ida, Lesley, St Joe's (ME), Clark, Lasell, Emerson).  They are leading 1-0 at half with MIT which based on this ranking should get them in?

Montclair at #7???  Newark at #3?  What possible rationale?

And obviously that first week the cmte made a clerical mistake putting Luther at #2.  The SOS and no losses thereafter can't account for going from #2 to nothing.

Case Western still at #4 in Great Lakes?  Wabash still didn't crack the rankings.

[lastguyoffthebench]

My guess would be that because MSU is 0-4 vs regionally ranked teams.  SOS is .563 compared to Newark .557 (2-2 vs RRT) with the h2h loss.  But then why/how could Newark bump over Covenant who is 1-1 vs RRT and .541

Tufts SOS is lower than Babson


When teams are fluctuating like this, will these "secret" rankings come in to play, FW?

I can't think of any logical explanation, NCAC NE.

[All NESCAC]

Agreed. Tufts below Babson is insanity....their first loss since September (and that was a loss to Brandeis) drops them to 6th? I don't get it...

Agree....I know they lost to Conn last weekend in the playoff upset, but Tufts severely dominated Conn in the 2nd half and the statistics point this out....Tufts is a very good team who lost a nail biter to a decent team in a driving rainstorm on a lousy grass field....Tufts, if the ball bounced their way, could have beat Conn 4-2...still having Tufts continue to slide down as far as they did is puzzling....as is having Coast Guard ahead of Amherst which is complete craziness.