2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Ryan Harmanis]

Kenyon and OWU should both be locks at this point, especially if John Carroll takes care of the OAC title.  That should make Saturday's NCAC title game a Sweet 16 level tune-up without the pressure of a bid on the line.  However, OWU could definitely be playing for home games in the NCAA tournament. They'd be 4-2-2 against ranked, 1-0-1 against Kenyon and have a higher SOS.  Kenyon, with a win, should be in line to host, but I think the location/facilities could be a drawback.  There are no locker rooms near the field, the stands are very small, and Gambier has limited hotel selection within reasonable driving distance (putting it lightly).

As for the game itself, I think whoever scores first wins.  Kenyon's D is tough to break down, especially once they take a lead, but OWU also plays much better from the front.  OWU also has a mental edge over Kenyon, undefeated in last 11 meetings.  And it's not your typical dominance a la Wooster, as Kenyon has consistently been in those games.  Both teams seem to be on point, so that should be mandatory viewing for anyone looking for the best conference final Saturday night.

[PaulNewman]

It takes about 45 seconds (walking slowly) to get from the Kenyon field to the top-ranked athletic facility in the country (all divisions according to Princeton Review).  Is 45-50 minutes (if necessary) too far for a team to take a bus ride to a game?  But that said, I'm sure Kenyon would be happy to host via borrowing the OWU location while OWU travels to Calvin or Wheaton    As for the rest, Kenyon even with a loss would be 3-1-1.  Not much difference, arguably better, and Kenyon has been ranked ahead of OWU for 9-10 straight weeks.

They are both locks, and I agree that this is the perfect game for both teams to prepare for the competition and intensity of the NCAA tournament.  The alleged mental edge seems obvious, and yet Kenyon should feel less pressure (and more incentive) playing at OWU.  Definitely is set up to be one of the games of the year so far this season, and the video feed is excellent.

[PaulNewman]

A couple of other thoughts while in OWU-Kenyon preview mode....

Going back to 2011 (the relevant time period for the current players), leading up to this year there has been hardly a game where OWU wasn't favored (against anyone except perhaps Messiah in the first game of the OWU 2011 national title season), and certainly there were none where Kenyon was favored or considered on par.  Yes, Kenyon wasn't Wooster, but this is the first year in four where most would say they are on very equal footing or where arguably Kenyon could be considered to have a very slight edge.  Even during Kenyon's very good season last year let's not forget that OWU was undefeated and #1 in the country for virtually the entire season until losing to RHIT.  And 2011 and 2012 Kenyon was pretty good and competitive but clearly in rebuilding mode.  As noted, in 2011 OWU was a national title team and also highly ranked throughout 2012.

As for the game I wouldn't be surprised to see momentum swing back and forth a fair amount.  Neither team is going to lay down if they face a little adversity.

And finally, whether you are a Jay Martin fan or not, this year's edition of the Battling Bishops may represent one of his very best coaching jobs.  He tweaked a team that lost at home to Otterbein 4-1 (without Bloecher) into a squad that has been as good as anyone down the stretch.  He moved some players around, including putting one of his preferred forwards/attacking mids on the backline, and he has shortened his bench quite a bit compared to what he usually does (more akin to Loras).  Excellent job with this team and no one should understimate the competitiveness of the coaching legend.

[gustiefan04]

Interesting article by Bennettrank.com

http://www.bennettrank.com/collegesoccer/open-invitation-ncaa-soccer-tournament-selection-committees/

Thought I would share as NCAA Selections are only a few days away.

[Soccergeek]

Interesting article by Bennettrank.com

http://www.bennettrank.com/collegesoccer/open-invitation-ncaa-soccer-tournament-selection-committees/

Thought I would share as NCAA Selections are only a few days away.

Interesting...Just out of curiosity, I used their prediction tool to compare Hope vs Kalamazoo (the matchup I saw last night).  Of course, it predicted a Hope victory, giving absolutely no weight to the fact that Kzoo has now beaten Hope three times this season.  Personally, I believe Massey does a better job than Bennett, but both appear to employ flawed methodology.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I see Rutgers-Newark as a potential non bid on the home page, but where does that put Rutgers-Camden?   If MSU dropped from 2nd to 7th after 1 loss (to Newark), where does that leave Rutgers-Camden or MSU?  Everyone on the board assumed Newark was done after losing to Camden for the 2nd time, but Newark jumped to 3rd after that "big win".    Is this a year where those secret rankings dramatically change?   

We see that K'zoo disposed of Hope 3x, so we know, or think we know that Hope is toast.

At any rate; Camden 2, MSU 1!   They seem to be on the right track after letting Haverford score a TD and MSU a 5 spot.     

[PaulNewman]

Pretty quiet around here all of the sudden.

Everyone bunkering in with their faves before the storm?

Some compelling storylines over the weekend.

OWU-Kenyon seems covered, and that is one of them for sure, but there are at least a handful of others.

Rutgers-Camden, last year's national runner-up and now finally oozing with confidence at the right time, challenges Montclair State for the NJAC title, which apparently now is just as massive in terms of importance for MSU.  Should be one of the very best games of the weekend.  Any video for this one?

Can F&M continue their remarkable run, get through Haverford and Muhlenberg/Dickinson, and find some way to squirm themselves out of Messiah's quadrant?  The Messiah announcers last night were effusive in their praise of F&M whom they consider a close family member (because of coach) and almost sounding entitled to a Messiah vs F&M national final.

The IIAC final with Wartburg at Loras is about as good as it gets, on par with and offering similar dynamics to the Kenyon-OWU final.

In the NEWMAC, Babson looks safe given the regional rankings, but does anyone really know how many teams could be fighting over that bid with the Beavers, especially if Babson doesn't get a result against favored Wheaton and WPI prevails over Coast Guard.  Are Tufts, Rochester/Case, CMU, Montclair, Salisbury, etc impacted or impactful here?

The UAA is getting a ton of love (seemingly) and probably too much.  Can they really get 4, or even 5 bids (inclusive of the AQ)?  Brandeis is safe.  Chicago seems safe, with a great chance to get the AQ and a good rankings position if they don't, but on the other hand UC has a large number of blemishes so could one more possibly be too many?  The Maroons no doubt benefit from and may have a little wiggle room because of North Park and Hope being eliminated in their conferences semis.  Emory appears pretty safe, but the South Atlantic rankings have been extremely volatile and another loss could spawn doubts.  CMU (at home) also absolutely must win against Emory to have any chance of a bid.  I thought Case was done, but the regional cmte has been kind to the Spartans.  An away win at Rochester seems like way too much to ask of this blue-collar squad who have played their hearts out all year.  And Rochester seems like the team with 9 lives.  No matter what happens they seem to be locked into the #4 position in the East, although the Yellow Jackets were within 7 minutes of being eliminated in Pittsburgh when they pulled two set-piece daggers out of a hat.  My guess is that Rochester gets a 4th UAA bid and that Case and CMU fall just short.

Similar to the NEWMAC scenarios above, RPI could ruffle some feathers with a win (or maybe even a tie) with SLU.  That might be a problem for Rochester, or one of the NEWMACs, or even for Tufts.

Which raises another question.  Is it a problem to be a team with credentials sitting idle over this big weekend, a la Tufts, Brockport, Newark, and of course our friend Luther who inexplicably already seemed doomed?

Is KZoo already in after besting Hope an amazing 3 times in a row?  Or do they have to get a result against Calvin?

The ODAC final should be excellent with Roanoke and Lynchburg, and Roanoke will be determined to leave no doubt about securing a bid, knowing that the at-large picture does not look friendly to them.

Has Elmhurst earned a bid or do they have to win against Wheaton at Joe Bean?

Some long-awaited clarity should emerge out of the SAA, and given how favorably Centre has been viewed one wonders if the Colonels could sneak a bid without earning the new AQ.

And for the second year in a row -- but this year not because of several lesser known teams having stellar records and instead mostly because of a NEWMAC surge -- the mighty NESCAC remarkably looks like they are going to feel shorted again.  Only Amherst looks completely safe.  Tufts seems pretty safe.  And apparently the NESCAC will only make their way up to 3 bids if Midd, Bowdoin, or Conn Coll manage to lift the NESCAC tourney trophy.  Emerging with only 2 bids will be a bitter pill for NESCAC faithfuls, but that is the most likely scenario with Amherst being the strongest remaining team and having home field.

The other developing storyline of major interest (as alluded to in posts above) will be the jockeying for hosting the first and possibly second weekends in the NCAA dance.  Barring unexpected events, Messiah and Trinity (TX) look like locks to host as long as they win.  Vying for the others spots would seem to be Oneonta, Brandeis, possibly Amherst, possibly SLU, possibly Wheaton (MA), F&M, possibly Christopher Newport, Kenyon, OWU, John Carroll, Calvin, Wheaton (Ill), Loras, and maybe Whitworth.  Sorry if I missed any other obvious candidates.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Don't forget Eastern vs. Kings.   Two Messiah alums coaching against each other for the MAC Freedom title. 

Centennial semifinals seems like a great way to spend a Saturday afternoon... 

Unfortunately, no video for the NJAC Final.

[PaulNewman]

How many Messiah coaches are out there in D3?  I think Geneva has one also.  Can someone do a Messiah coaching tree?

And meanwhile, #1 seed Greensboro in real trouble in 2nd half against Maryville (TN) in the USA South.

[Soccergeek]

In the Central, assuming each of the favorites (Calvin, Wheaton, Chicago and Dominican) wins their conference's AQ and the region receives one at-large bid, the battle likely breaks down as follows:

North Park - .666 winning % in division, 4-4 vs ranked opponents, .597 SOS, 5-5 in last 10, but failed to reach conference final.
Elmhurst - .675 winning % in division, 2-5 vs ranked opponents, .560 SOS, 6-3-1 in last 10 (assuming loss to Wheaton in final).
Kalamazoo - .619 winning % in division, 4-4-1 vs ranked opponents, 528 SOS, 7-3 in last 10 (assuming loss to Calvin in final).
MSOE - .761 winning % in division, 1-4 vs ranked opponents, .515 SOS, 8-2 in last 10 (assuming loss to Dominican in final).

I think MSOE gets eliminated due to low SOS and low record against ranked opponents.  I think North Park gets eliminated next due to failing to get out of the conference semis and their record over the last ten games (including 2-4 in last six).  This leaves Elmhurst and Kzoo.  The Bluejays have the better winning % and SOS, but the Hornets have the better results versus ranked opponents.  More telling, the two teams played to a 1-1 draw at Kalamazoo back in mid September (a game I happened to see in person).  The Hornets' coach played his second team most of the game to reward them for their hard work during the preseason, yet Kzoo was still the better team on that day (including 20-9 shots advantage, 11-4 SOG).

Based upon the eye test, as well as their recent results, Kzoo should get the at-large bid.  However, they have not been ranked in any of the three regional rankings (a clear oversight by the committee, given that Hope has appeared in all three), and it is unlikely that the committee will recognize this.  Elmhurst, meanwhile, appeared in the first two rankings, but not the most recent rankings.

Given this analysis:

Who deserves the at-large bid: Kalamazoo
Who will receive the at-large bid: Elmhurst

[Durantula]

Soccergeek, Last year the central region did not receive any at-large bids and the North received 3 at large bids. Because Carthage beat a couple North teams this year I could see the Central maybe getting two this year and the North only getting one especially if Gustavus wins the MIAC. However, I think whitewater may have beaten NPU which lowers that possibility? I cannot think of any other cross region games off the top of my head.

[Soccergeek]

Soccergeek, Last year the central region did not receive any at-large bids and the North received 3 at large bids. Because Carthage beat a couple North teams this year I could see the Central maybe getting two this year and the North only getting one especially if Gustavus wins the MIAC. However, I think whitewater may have beaten NPU which lowers that possibility? I cannot think of any other cross region games off the top of my head.

Here are a few more: Chicago crushed Knox 6-2, UW-Whitewater defeated MSOE, Chicago, North Park and lost to Carthage, and UW-Oshkosh lost to MSOE and North Park.

[PaulNewman]

lastguy, you have got to be kidding.

We need you to go there and personally provide a video stream (and since you'll already be there please provide the color commentary as well).

[Mr.Right]

Stevens and Alfred knotted up in the 2nd OT. Matt Smith formerly of Johns Hopkins has done a good job in his first year with this group. Alfred does not have the talent that Stevens does but the game has got PK's written all over it and this could end Stevens season. Stevens is not nearly as good as in years past but they have enough talent to be able to win a game or 2 in the NCAA's if they get there

[lastguyoffthebench]

lastguy, you have got to be kidding.

We need you to go there and personally provide a video stream (and since you'll already be there please provide the color commentary as well).

I unfortunately will not be there!  Will be relying on live stats while out with the kids tonight.  Extreme disservice to the rest of the d3 world.   Whether the school provides the live feed or not (Kean, Newark, Stockton do off the top of my head), the NJAC itself should have it streamed.