2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

PKs at the Rock Bowl!

[Midwest Soccer]

JCU has been ranked ahead of OWU in every NCAA Regional Ranking. Then the question is does OWU jump them with a loss vs #1 Kenyon with their loss to unranked Heidelberg?

[PaulNewman]

That's why both are going to get bids.  They're both very deserving.  They're virtually tied at #2.  But, yes, if forced I would jump OWU.

[Midwest Soccer]

I see....Congrats to your KC Lords! Gambier will see some NCAA games for the first time in a LONG time. Well-deserved.

[KnightFalcon]

Wartburg wins PKs 5-4 over Loras
Wheaton(IL) defeats Elmhurst 5-2 for CCIW title
Messiah never gives Lycoming a chance to duplicate last year's feat and goes up 3-0 in the first 20 minutes before winning 4-0. Here's a scary thought - 2 of the goals were scored by defenders and weren't off set pieces.

[Mr.Right]

I think it breaks down like this:

West           0 Pool C's unless Trinity lose tomorrow.
North          2-Loras, UWW
Central        0
Great Lakes 2 or 3  OWU, John Carroll (However they are not a lock in my mind based on that SOS) and maybe CM. These UAA teams have very high SOS and the committee usually does not ignore this. The committee also loves including UAA teams  in the NCAA tournament with one of the more remarkable stats I have read on these boards. 2 Final Eight Appearances in the last 17 years by UAA schools. That blows me away. That is really bad for all the teams that get into the NCAA;s from the UAA year after year. That being said if you are to take CM then why not Wesleyan(CT) with also a high SOS and same record etc. Wesleyan is finished but just saying.
South Atl     3 Salisbury, Emory, RUN( I cannot see only one NJAC school included)
East             3  Cortland, Rochester, RPI
Mid-Atl            3       F&M, Dickinson, Muhlenberg / Haverford loser
New England    6          Brandeis, Wheaton(MA), Coast Guard, Tufts, Amherst (if they lose tmrw), Babson(if they lose tmrw), WPI (if they lose tmrw)
Of course only Babson and WPI account for 1 because they are playing each other tmrw.

That gives me 20 so you have 3 or 4 legit Bubble teams. WPI, RPI, Haverford,CM

[PaulNewman]

Looks just about right.

I don't see Dickinson AND Haverford getting in.

Out of your bubbles I think RPI is probably most deserving.  And might consider Brockport more of a bubble team than CMU or maybe even WPI.

[dontshootthegoose]

Mr. Right , what do you think about pool b? Because if UWW snags that, then another pool C opens up

[Mr.Right]

I like UWW resume and they should get that Pool B. The reason I choose Haverford and Dickinson is their SOS. Last year the mid-atlantic went 5 deep with Misericordia getting in at #5 and that was the bubble of all bubble teams. Ypu could be right about Brockport as they should be on the bubble as well but I do not see it happening for them.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Brandeis
Wheaton MA
Coast Guard 
F&M
OWU
Loras
Rochester
Cortland St.
Emory
Salisbury

8 spots to go with 3 big conference finals on the slate today.  Seems crazy not to include Tufts just yet, but they should be safe.  If I have to question 1 it would be Salisbury... 5 draws, 2 loses, weak SOS, 0 wins vs regionally ranked.   On an eye test I would take Tufts over Salisbury. 


UWW pool B...


Mr.Right... UAA final 4 teams were NYU in 06, Chicago 96 I believe. 

[PaulNewman]

Nobody is better at this than Christan Shirk, but I'll take a stab.  And as lastguy notes, there are a few variables still to be decided today with several finals, so there could be an impact if for instance Colorado Coll beats Trinity, Haverford beats Muhlenber, Bowdoin beats Amherst, WPI beats Babson, etc.

Absolute Locks (no discussion)

F&M
Brandeis
Loras
Trinity (if loses)
Muhlenberg (if loses)

Close to Locks (minimal discussion)

OWU
Amherst (if loses)
Wheaton (MA)
Cortland St

Probably Safe

John Carroll
Salisbury
Emory
Tufts

Likely to get in but sweating

Rochester
Coast Guard
Babson (if needed)
UW-W (if UW-Osh or Santa Cruz gets Pool B)
Rutgers-Newark

Bubble with high hopes

Brockport
RPI
WPI (if needed)
Dickinson
Haverford (if needed)
Kalamazoo
Colorado Coll (if needed)
UW-Osh (if needed)
Roanoke (I know they are probably in the last group below but I think they deserve to at least be here)

Wrong side of bubble but don't be shocked if one gets in

Rutgers-Camden
Dominican
Gordon (cmte representation)
Middlebury
Elmhurst
Carnegie Mellon
North Park
Texas-Dallas (if needed)
Centre
Luther (obviously they appear to be out but that team at a minimum deserves some explanation from their cmte which includes the Wartburg coach)

[repete]

Would be a shame if the flawed SOS ranking system would keep Salisbury out. Because of the lack of inter-regional play, it doesn't adequately take into account the differences between regional strengths.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I agree, repete.  This is another reason why UAA teams benefit... being spread out across various regions.

Salisbury should be safe, as they lost to a team that was also regionally ranked.

[PaulNewman]

You can feel tensions rising as we head into selection time, seedings, hosting, etc.  You could tell listening to the Messiah broadcast yesterday that things are ramping up.  The 3-member broadcast team was trying to remain in easygoing mode with lots of jokes and light fanfare, but even with a big lead there were a few more ref comments and some overtly expressed sensitivity to Mr.Right's (and I assume Ryan H's) comments about the Fri/Sat deal.  Clearly they are very tuned in to the happenings on this message board.

At any rate, these are my predictions on the seedings, which is dependent on the Trinity (TX) final today (which I could see Colorado Coll winning after two pretty close 1-0 losses), and a big wild card in the bracketology is where Calvin, Wheaton (Ill), and F&M are placed.  I think there is a decent chance F&M gets placed with Kenyon and OWU, which would make for too many high seeds (#1 and #2/3 seeds) in the same quadrant if Wheaton and Calvin also there.  I'm not sure wanting to avoid Messiah is a total no-brainer because if the Falcons are upset or you upset them then you have a pretty clear road, whereas elsewhere you may have to beat 2-3 teams just as good as you are to reach a final four.

#1 seeds

Messiah
Trinity (TX)
Oneonta State
Kenyon

#2 seeds

F&M
Brandeis
Loras
Wheaton

# 3 seeds

Calvin
SLU
Amherst
Muhlenberg (if wins and otherwise drops to a #4 and OWU moves up)

#4 seeds

OWU
Cortland
Wartburg
Christopher Newport

#5 seeds

Wheaton (MA)
Salisbury
Whitworth
Emory

#6 seeds

Montclair
Rochester
Chicago
Tufts

#7 seeds

GAC
Babson
John Carroll
Coast Guard



#8 seeds

RPI/Rutgers-Newark (or Camden)/Haverford/Dickinson/Brockport/UW-W/KZoo/WPI

[lastguyoffthebench]

Do you think NCAA does actual seeding, NCAC NE?


Most of the time it just seems jumbled by geography/dollars with some how did this pod happen?  Don't forget the SAA winner does get the AQ, so either Berry or Birmingham Southern will also be in (8th seed).


Always appreciate the detailed and well constructed posts.  Keep up the good work.  Looking forward to your predictions...