2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

But they can't score, and by your "eye test" Brockport, Kzoo, Rut-N and probably Rut-C too, Haverford, and even Roanoke, Colorado College, and both UWs are all better.  And Luther IMHO would handle CMU easily.

But then again, that's why you are Mr.Right

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE 2.0

Brandeis
Wheaton (MA)
Amherst
Coast Guard
Tufts

F&M
Dickinson/Haverford (but not both)

Salisbury
Emory
Rutgers-Newark

Cortland
Rochester
RPI

OWU
John Carroll

Kalamazoo (the official draw with Calvin gets them in)

Loras
UWW

If Haverford and Dickinson both get in then Kzoo, Rut-N, RPI or John Carroll come off (or UWW getting a Pool B provides extra slot)

Does Rochester definitely beat out RPI head to head on the criteria?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lastguy, you think UWO gets the pool b over UWW?

UWO holds a very slight advantage in SOS, and a head to head win. But UWW has better record vs regionally ranked opponents and has been ranked higher than UWO in the NCAA regional rankings.

Typo on my behalf.   I posted UWW as Pool B earlier today.   

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rochester has some prettty big wins, which seem more important than the weak losses to that of Lycoming, NYU, and Morrisville St.
They will be 4-2-1 vs RRT and have a great SOS to go along with it.

RPI will be 0-3-2 vs RRT and a lower SOS than Rochester. 

With that being said, Rochester would beat out RPI.



On the other hand, I think RPI would beat out an additional UAA team like CMU.



My question would be;  Does CMU resume look better than John Carroll?    With CMU drawing vs regionally ranked Emory and JC losing to unranked Heidelburg, CMU could move up.

[PaulNewman]

OK, that makes sense on Rochester, but John Carroll was 10-1 in conference and undefeated in conference until slip-up in final.  Overall 17-4 record MUCH better than CMU, and JCU was ranked #2 in the region all 3 weeks I believe.  CMU had some losses as bad or worse than Heidelberg.  And CMU didn't win either of their last 2 games at home in must-game situations.  I don't think mediocrity, even "good" (high SOS) mediocrity should be rewarded.  CMU was mediocre for pretty much the entire season.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Pool C Mock Draft 1.0 by Region.

Brandeis
Wheaton MA
Coast Guard 
Amherst
Tufts

F&M
Dickinson

Kalamazoo

OWU
John Carroll

Loras
UWO

Rochester
Cortland St.
RPI

Emory
Salisbury
Rutgers-Camden

Pool C 2.0

IN
CMU
Haverford
UWO (typo purpose for UWW)

OUT
John Carroll
Rutgers-Camden



UT-Dallas, Roanoke, WPI really needed the AQ in my opinion. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

OK, that makes sense on Rochester, but John Carroll was 10-1 in conference and undefeated in conference until slip-up in final.  Overall 17-4 record MUCH better than CMU, and JCU was ranked #2 in the region all 3 weeks I believe.  CMU had some losses as bad or worse than Heidelberg.  And CMU didn't win either of their last 2 games at home in must-game situations.  I don't think mediocrity, even "good" (high SOS) mediocrity should be rewarded.  CMU was mediocre for pretty much the entire season.

The data sheet shows JC as 4-0 vs RRT (the lucky Geneva rank, Case, DePauw, and ONU)... so now I already pull back my CMU in / JC out play!    JC back in.    And then probably soon to be out, much like Charlie Austin two quick offsides goals vs City yesterday.

[PaulNewman]

Let me put it this way on John Carroll, who I have zero allegiance to.  If JCU is out then Tufts should be out, and Salisbury.

BTW, they lost first game of the year to DePauw 1-0 when we all thought DePauw was likely to be a top 15 team, but they beat Capital x2 who I believe was regionally ranked also, so that would make them 5-1 vs ranked.  They had a decent schedule.  Not their fault that DePauw and Ohio Northern had disappointing seasons, and they played Case.

[Mr.Right]

I think RPI is in trouble. 0-3-2 is not going to get it done. Haverford and Dickinson are in

[Durantula]

When does Christian usually write the article about the predictions?

[backyarddawg]

Does anyone have predictions of where teams will end up?  Who will host?

[casualfan]

When does Christian usually write the article about the predictions?

It's usually pretty late. Roughly 10:00 (ET) I wanna say from years past. The man works hard. Thanks for all you do Christian! It's all very much appreciated!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Final Mock Pool C

New England:  Brandeis, Wheaton, Coast Guard, Amherst, Tufts.

East:  Cortland St, Rochester, Brockport St

Mid Atlantic:  F&M, Haverford, Dickinson

South Atlantic:  Emory, Rutgers-Newark

Great Lakes:  John Carroll, OWU

Central:  Kalamazoo

North:  Loras, UWO

[Ryan Harmanis]

Random thoughts, I'll try to get some predictions done later:

The UAA gets a huge boost because they don't have really bad teams. Even though they've lacked true title contenders over the years, having every team over .500 is a huge edge in terms of actually getting bids. It's a cycle: no bad teams keeps SOS inflated, which gets teams regionally ranked (6 of 8 ranked), which gives teams ranked wins, meaning the UAA setup almost guarantees a strong NCAA profile. Also, these teams are spread out between a bunch of different regions. It's a lot easier to get in that way, because then you are't asking the committee to give 4 at-larges to the same conference AND same region (see Haverford/Dickinson below). That's how a team like Rochester will probably get in even though they only have nine (!!) wins and barely won more than half their games (8 blemishes).

Off all the higher ranked (top 3/region) teams, Salisbury should have the most to worry about. ZERO ranked wins, a decent SOS, but didn't even make the conference championship game. Luckily for them, no bubble teams in that region are going to pass them since Newark also fell flat. They might get one by default unless the committee either puts in Camden (a stretch since they were unranked) or Newark. I think Newark is more deserving but Salisbury is more likely to get a bid.

John Carroll should drop below OWU in the Great Lakes region. OWU's .556 SOS will be even more above JCU's .535 after this week, OWU has more ranked wins, and OWU's conference final loss was much easier to stomach. Frankly, JCU may still get a bid just because they kept fighting yesterday. They were losing 5-2 with 20 left, and getting the doors blown off at home when you're on the bubble may have ended things.

I think Dickinson and Haverford both deserve bids, but it might be a tough sell just because of how the selection committee works. If they're sitting there trying to get both of those teams in, that means that you're asking for four from the same conference. It's hard to convince the other regional representatives to put a third at-large from the same region ahead of the best at-large from another region, let alone the same conference.

No teams have done as much recently as Kalamazoo or Rutgers-Camden to get into the field, but they're both up against history. Neither was in the last regional rankings, and it's almost impossible to get in without being in those rankings. Camden has 9 blemishes, 8 (!!) losses, and also lost its conference championship game. Kalamazoo will get a bumped for SOS and didn't lose to Calvin (PK loss = draw), but also has 9 blemishes.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I have RPI, Salisbury, Camden, WPI as first four out.   Brockport St and Kzoo as last teams in.