2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Homegrown Harry]

Agree with the speed comment, one starting forward and mid as well as a few mid/forwards that come off the bench for Wartburg.
Keep the guys fresh and let them go hard at 15 to 20 minute spurts.

[PaulNewman]

Wartburg is probably my darkhorse final four pick.  They are just the kind of team that could give Wheaton fits, and I think on the day they can beat the two on the other side of the bracket (and of course they'll only have to play one of them).

[Cheesehead Henry]

Let's see if the Wartburg that beat Loras shows up, or the Wartburg that tied dubuque and carleton shows up to play...

Consistency is the key.

[KICKIN95]

Wartburg is very dangerous  in the midfield and up top.  This may be one of the fastest teams in DIII, their speed from the mids is crazy.  Nadeau up top in a tall strong target that distributes as well as anyone I have seen this year.  He may look a bit lanky, but he is great at getting his body in perfect position to make a player miss and he keeps the ball on a string once he has it.  His passes seem to find the mark on just about every occasion and one of the most important things you can do is mark him like a shadow on set pieces, he is VERY good in the air.  Martins is quick as they come and Azari seems to enjoy making people miss.  Their central defender played very well and has speed to spare, his height makes it seem as if he wouldn't have that kind of pace, but he can fly.  My tactic would be to play Nadeau tight from whistle to whistle, don't give him an inch because he will find a way to make you pay.  Keep goal side of Martin and be disciplined, don't stab or poke or he will be by you in a snap, try to hold him up until a 2nd defender and come to help.  Same with Azari, technically sound and need to be harassed.  Anderson the red head has a motor and will come at you non stop, need to keep a physical body on him and wear him down, strategic fouls and a bit of gamesmanship can get him out of his game.  Just how I would play them after watching these guys play 5 times this season.

[Ron Boerger]

Anyone else a little tired of the Messiah and Trinity cupcake games leading to the Sweet 16 every year?

Messiah is beatable, or should I say drawable with the opportunity to advance in PKs. Haven't seen them play, but in D3 soccer anything is possible. With a good GK and an organized defense if you park the bus you can stay in any game. The one blemish on Messiah's record this season was against a below average team.

I'm trying to figure where this comes from.   Trinity is a frequent victim of its location and as long as the NCAA discourages flights at all costs they are going to either be lumped with ASC/SCAC (almost never the case in soccer, but happens in other sports) schools or get flown somewhere even when they are the better seed.    In the 2003 championship year, when they were the top-ranked team in the country, they had two games in Atlanta, the third round game at home, and the semis and finals in New Jersey because back then the final four was awarded to one of the remaining teams.    Sometimes geography works in their favor, sometimes not. 

THIS year ... the NCAA GAVE a pool C bid to an IMO questionable UT-Dallas, AND gave them the hosting duties, so that's where Trinity ends up going.   It is worth pointing out that the same UT-Dallas team gave them their only loss of the season.   And when there are only three teams that can bus, someone who doesn't fit anywhere else is going to get flown in.  Pomona was about the only possibility without adding another flight (I could be wrong, but P-P HAD to be flown somewhere).

Your next comment talks about them being deserving of a first-round bye, but they didn't get one, and that's fine ... tho if they had, they would have been able to host the second round game they earned instead of having to play on UT-Dallas' pitch.

[Domino1195]

Per John Carroll - got to see them three times this year.  15-4-1 last year, 17-4 this year.  I really feel for those seniors who were more than deserving of at least ONE appearance over the past two years.  But as I posted about the OAC previously, on any given day any team was capable of beating their opponent.  Mediocrity or parity?  Most teams challenged themselves out of conference, scheduling "historically" strong teams. Several played OWU, Kenyon, Oberlin and DePauw (the last two not having the year they had last year) from the NCAC, others had Case and CMU from the UAA, Transylvania and Thomas More.  Most games were very competitive, with OAC teams winning more than they may have in previous years.

Per NCAA bids: OAC is historically a one-team conference, much like the mid majors in college basketball.  If the OAC continues to field strong teams and play strong out-of-conference schedules perhaps they will get a second bid someday.  But I agree NCAC New England - this snub becomes more incomprehensible each time I look at the brackets.

[PaulNewman]

It's just terrible.  It's one thing if you're a team that feels it should have been ranked but wasn't (like a Wabash or a Kzoo) or a team that was ranked very high but mysteriously dropped (like Luther), but to be ranked #2 in your region during the supposed entire period of relevance and at most drop to #3 "secretly" and not get in is just too much to take.  And as I think I said before, I'm not even a JCU fan.  Those kids, families, fans, and coaches have got to be apoplectic and devastated.  And the "only one bid" for the OAC argument that you alluded to doesn't hold in this instance, because that already had to be factored in when placing them at #2 regionally three straight weeks (in contrast to a Thomas More or Transy that were faves in their conferences and got slotted in at the bottom of the regional rankings.  If they had been 6-2-1, 7-2, or even 8-1-1 in conference and then lost the conference final I could see them being left out, but not after being 9-0 and winning their conference semi.

[PaulNewman]

Mr.Right, I hope you are well-rested today.

I want you to think through the Brandeis prospects with your intellect rather than reactivity.

Here's my analysis.

First of all, as a coach of any of these good teams who saw the draw and immediately may have felt overwhelmed by how stacked their quadrants are, I would say this (in addition to the usual one game at a time speech)....When you look at the other side of your bracket you don't have to get through all of those other standout teams.  There will be only ONE of them.  That immediately makes everything seem more doable.  And at that point you are at an Elite 8 game and who wouldn't be happy with their chances if they can get to that game?  To get to that point, you have to win a couple of tough games, but overall it's probably 3 tough games to get to a final four and not 5 or 6 really tough games, and it might only be 1 or 2 tough games to get to the Elite 8, which is what most teams want (getting to the Elite 8 for a chance to get to the final four).

So, I think Brockport will beat Bowdoin, but even if they don't I think Brandeis will have a tight game with the winner but will find a way to prevail and have a clear edge playing at home.  That gets them to the sweet 16, most likely at Oneonta.  They don't have to beat SLU AND Amherst, just the winner.  Yes, a very good, very tight, tough game, but I would pick Brandeis over either one.  Now we're in the Elite 8.  Oneonta is the only team in the quad where I would slightly favor the other team against Brandeis.  I think F&M would be a great match-up for Brandeis, especially with a final four bid on the line.  And I think F&M has the kind of team that will give Oneonta trouble.  This is the scenario that I see getting Brandeis to the final four.  F&M knocks off Oneonta in the sweet 16 and then F&M is a favorable match-up for the Judges.  I would give Brandeis a fair chance against Oneonta too, but as slight underdogs on Oneonta's pitch.

F&M, btw, has the tougher road in my view, because, presumably, they have to get by the winner of Rochester and Salisbury, which will a dangerous game, and then Oneonta just to get to the Elite 8.

[PaulNewman]

NCAA Appearances of Participants

30+ Club

OWU (37)
Wheaton (Ill) (35)

20+ Club

Messiah (25)
Babson (23) -- this surprised me

15+ Club

SLU (19)
Trinity (TX) (18)
Cortland St (16)
Emory (15)
Rochester (15)
Montclair St (15)

10+ Club

Amherst (14)
Muhlenberg (13)
Stevens (13)
Calvin (13)
Dominican (13)
Brandeis (12)
UWW (12)
Salisbury (12)
GAC (11)
Kenyon (11)
Lynchburg (11)
Loras (10)
Wheaton (MA) (10)

And congrats to these first-time ever appearances...

Heidelberg
Covenant
Berry
UMass-Boston
MSOE
SUNY-Purchase

[Flying Weasel]

And congrats to these first-time ever appearances...

Covenant
Berry
UMass-Boston
MSOE
SUNY-Purchase

Add Heidelberg to that list.

[PaulNewman]

Wow, how in the world did I miss Heidelberg, LOL?

[wchandy22]

F&M, btw, has the tougher road in my view, because, presumably, they have to get by the winner of Rochester and Salisbury, which will a dangerous game, and then Oneonta just to get to the Elite 8.

Last year, Oneonta hosted and played both F&M and Messiah in their Mayor's Cup tournament. My impression then was that the Red Dragons were very solid defensively but lacked some offensive flair. They appear to have remedied the problem this season with much improved play from returning players Dylan Williams (last year's team MVP), Hans Purtell and Jake Sutherland among others, with key contributions from two newcomers. Their two best new players this season are Greg Silvestro -- an Empire Eight transfer and All-Conference player; and Cory Santangelo -- a freshmen who usually comes of the bench to provide some flair. Cory leads the team, or is tied for the lead, in nearly all offensive categories. Last year's game between Oneonta and F&M was a low scoring affair with very few shots. I would expect a much different game this year should they meet.

[Mr.Right]

I am well rested and I still feel Brandeis will be upset. I am allowed to feel that way. I have seen them play LIVE about 4 times and with the scouting reports we are getting for Brockport and I know Bowdoin they could be upset. I also do not think F&M gets that far either. Oneonta could be overrated as well. This pod looks to have the parity of D3 represented and some upsets will occur here

[Mr.Right]

I also feel that Amherst got screwed a bit. I think that PK loss is what sent them on a 6 hour bus ride up to Canton, NY. I think Amherst should have been sent to Barandeis and Bowdoin to SLU. Babson gets to host but I would be suprised if their season continues after Saturday 1pm.

[PaulNewman]

I am well rested and I still feel Brandeis will be upset. I am allowed to feel that way. I have seen them play LIVE about 4 times and with the scouting reports we are getting for Brockport and I know Bowdoin they could be upset. I also do not think F&M gets that far either. Oneonta could be overrated as well. This pod looks to have the parity of D3 represented and some upsets will occur here

Understood.  I'm not necessarily predicting that Brandeis will get through.  Just trying to show that it isn't quite as daunting as it looks at first glance, and describing a reasonable scenario that could happen.

Also understand your point on Amherst (as you clearly think they would have a better match-up with Brandeis), but on paper they did get the better deal because rankings/seedings-wise Brandeis is rated higher than SLU.

Remember also that Brandeis, with the highest SOS in the country (and yes, I agree that it's inflated and they had several cupcakes), only lost 2 games all season, away at Rochester and away at Chicago where they dominated the play.