2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Ryan Harmanis]

Figures school ramps up the first week of the tournament. General comments on some of the threads of conversation:

With regards to who gets at-large bids - The one thing we can't know is if/how the national committee judges the strength of one region relative to another. So while we can compare record versus ranked, etc. for John Carroll and Brockport, it's really tough to know how the committee values those regions. Ultimately, John Carroll probably got punished for the Great Lakes being "down" - OWU wasn't dominant, Case was average, and Ohio Northern, DePauw, and Carnegie Mellon were way down. That also explains how Salisbury made it in without deserving a bid IMO. I think everyone figured they were safe, but they haven't done much to "earn" the bid. They just benefitted from a "stronger" region. Personally, I disagree with it, as the Great Lakes put two teams in the national title game in three seasons and boasts the only non-Messiah winner in the last 5+ years. But going forward JCU needs to schedule OWU, Kenyon, Carnegie, basically the best Great Lakes teams if it wants a cushion following the OAC tournament.

For UT-Dallas, it could have been as simple as the committee (rightly) thinks Trinity is really good, and beating them was better than anything JCU had on its resume. Along those lines, the one thing you can say about Dominican is that they went out and scheduled people. And they also beat North Park, which is better than JCU's best win. Not justifying anything, but trying to find reasoning behind the selections.

Kenyon proved it can win the whole thing IMO by beating OWU. Just watched the tape, and it had late-round NCAA quality written all over it. The loss shouldn't affect OWU as they had slightly better chances and could have won it, but for Kenyon that win validates everything they've done so far. If they'd lost to OWU, then in the back of their heads when they see Calvin, Messiah, whoever, they know they haven't beaten anyone near that quality yet. Now they have confidence and momentum in that type of game. Having said that, they have a tough opening weekend. Kenyon usually benefits from physically pushing teams out of their game, but from what I know Heidelberg and North Park both play that exact style. Even though Kenyon is better than those teams, they won't get rattled with the physicality.

In response to the Bloecher/Wall/Payne/Vegter discussion, I'd put Vegter and Brown from Christopher Newport as the most dynamic forwards I've seen in a few years. I think Payne and Bloecher are pretty similar: great finishers, powerful players. Maybe give Payne a slight edge running at players but Bloecher is better finishing with his head than anyone I've ever seen at this level. Vegter is actually the closest to Wall in my opinion. Wall was a non-stop engine, all over the field. Beat you with long-range shooting, headers, running at people, assists, anything.

As for early upsets, I agree Coast Guard and Bowdoin have tough early games. OWU has the mental hurdle of getting past a team they're "supposed" to beat - they haven't won an NCAA game since the 2011 title. I wouldn't even consider Rochester over Salisbury an upset at this point. Chicago was great in-conference and played a bear of a schedule but they also took some losses that you simply shouldn't take, so I'd put them on upset alert, both in the first and second round. I think Berry and Lynchburg could surprise.

For the second round, basically everyone has a tough matchup except Oneonta, Messiah, and (maybe) Trinity.

I have some additional thoughts on the bracket but will save those for another time.

[PaulNewman]

Regarding the above w/r/t/ John Carroll the Blue Streaks are in a bit of conundrum.  They did (almost) everything right to get in, short of winning the AQ.  If the other Great Lakes teams noted above have better seasons going forward then there is the likelihood that those teams (ONU, DPU, CMU, OWU, Kenyon) will be regionally ranked ahead of JCU.  What are they to do when ONU, as ONU typically does, wins the AQ (and the regular season)?  If JCU schedules more of those teams they'll likely have a higher SOS but they will also have more blemishes.  If they couldn't get in with an unbeaten, untied regular season and a 17-4 overall record, then how will they get if they 13-5-2?  So the most parsimonious explanation to me is that they just got screwed, plain and simple.  Who knows when they will have this kind of season again, but if they do, hopefully they won't get screwed again.

I would agree that Kenyon getting the win over OWU was very big for Kenyon psychologically, but not necessarily for the same reasons.  As RH noted previously there has been a hurdle to overcome with respect to OWU specifically.  Sure, it always helps to get a win against a great team, especially in a hostile environment with high stakes and facing a team that wanted it just as badly, but on the other hand this Kenyon squad knows they can beat other big teams, as the foundation for this season came on the back of wins over ONU and Wheaton and an extremely competitive game with Messiah last year.  And while it is true that OWU did have some very near misses (hitting post a couple of times and a couple of other close in chances) and just as easily could have won, Kenyon did have a significant edge statistically with 11 SOG to 4 I believe and 11 corners to 1.   As for the early match-ups Heidelberg is on a run, and Heidelberg handed Kenyon a loss last year that put a ton of pressure on Kenyon not to lose any more games (which they didn't until the NCAC tourney final).  On the other hand, Kenyon is very familiar with Heidelberg and if they can't advance out of that game on their home field then they don't deserve a long run.  I'm sure North Park also would be very challenging and the Vikings clearly have quite a bit of talent.  One wonders, though, if North Park will be relishing the chance to knock out Kenyon before they have dispatched Thomas More.  I doubt Thomas More is going to just roll over for them.  I fully expect OWU to easily win their first game and then beat Calvin (mostly on the idea that Bloecher has a stronger supporting cast than Vegter and Martin will come in with a very good and inspired game plan), so if the Lords can get through the weekend I think we will get a riveting Round 3 of Kenyon-OWU which would be even better as an Elite 8 tilt.

[Gregory Sager]

One wonders, though, if North Park will be relishing the chance to knock out Kenyon before they have dispatched Thomas More.

That's not going to happen -- and I don't say that simply because I am an NPU partisan. And, no, it's not a matter of, "NPU head coach John Born won't allow his team to look ahead," etc., because when fans say that kind of thing it's really just boosterism in a roundabout way. No coach ever allows his team to look ahead in the postseason; whether players actually ever do or not is another matter, of course, since coaches don't have mind-control powers (much as they might like to have them).

No, the reason why I say that it's not going to happen is because North Park is in a totally new bracket situation this year. NPU is a regular participant in the D3 tourney, but up until now the Vikings have always been placed in the western section of the bracket. That's familiar ground, and people around the NPU program would have a good sense of who's who and what's what if they were sharing a pod with the likes of Dominican, Loras, Chicago, UW-Whitewater, Wartburg, etc. But the Great Lakes Region is terra incognita for the Park; heck, NPU hasn't played an Ohio-based side in even the regular season since 2005. John Born almost always looks west, north, and south for his regular-season opponents, not east. Thus, you can't look ahead when you really have no familiarity with either your first-round opponent or your prospective second-round opponents, or even a common frame of reference (NPU has no common opponents with any of the other three teams in the Kenyon pod).

The only thing that the Vikings will be relishing is the chance to participate in this tourney, which was certainly not a given for them going into the selection process. NPU will be focused upon Thomas More, because there's really no reason for the Vikings not to do so.

[KnightFalcon]

Snow on the ground at Calvin's campus ... Not to the level that USMNT played on in Denver earlier this year but it may make for some interesting field conditions for the Fri/Sat games. Here's a link to a campus webcam of the central part of campus - the field is just beyond the building/trees on the horizon:
http://www.calvin.edu/about/campus-location/webcams/

[lastguyoffthebench]

Good luck to everyone in the bracket challenge... I know I'm going to need it.   IMO, this was one of the hardest years to pick.

[Medicated Pete]

Good luck to everyone in the bracket challenge... I know I'm going to need it.   IMO, this was one of the hardest years to pick.

Bracket busted.. Nichols over Mass-Boston 1-0, damn  maybe next year

[Ryan Harmanis]

Snow on the ground at Calvin's campus ... Not to the level that USMNT played on in Denver earlier this year but it may make for some interesting field conditions for the Fri/Sat games. Here's a link to a campus webcam of the central part of campus - the field is just beyond the building/trees on the horizon:
http://www.calvin.edu/about/campus-location/webcams/

The Calvin pod has officially been moved to Hope for both days. Calvin plays Rose-Hulman at 5pm tomorrow, OWU-PSU-Behrend at 7:30. Winners play Saturday at 5pm.

[PaulNewman]

And I would assume that this move of venue (and most importantly field) is a real plus for OWU.

[wchandy22]

NCAA Division III Tournament First Round (at Morrisville State) Game postponed due to inclement weather - will be played Friday, Nov. 14 at 12 p.m.

[KnightFalcon]

Snow on the ground at Calvin's campus ... Not to the level that USMNT played on in Denver earlier this year but it may make for some interesting field conditions for the Fri/Sat games. Here's a link to a campus webcam of the central part of campus - the field is just beyond the building/trees on the horizon:
http://www.calvin.edu/about/campus-location/webcams/

The Calvin pod has officially been moved to Hope for both days. Calvin plays Rose-Hulman at 5pm tomorrow, OWU-PSU-Behrend at 7:30. Winners play Saturday at 5pm.

Wow - major change in venue... From a narrow grass field to a wide field turf field.

[Mr.Right]

I am disappointed my technical UMASS Boston side lost to a more physical Nichols College. I did not get to see it and am disappointed but hats off to the beacons on a great season.

[Mr.Right]

That is ridiculous they moved those games. If that is all the snow on the ground that is nothing. 1995 National Championship Semi-Final at Williams was played in a blizzard and many November games in New England are played with some snow on the ground and snow falling. Nowadays everyone has to move the game to a turf field. Calvin worked all year for that home field advantage and the NCAA screws them

[stlawus]

It happened to us in 2002 as well.  Hosted the championship, but we got hit with a blizzard so they moved the game from Sandy to our turf field.  Ended up losing to Messiah in the semis. 

[Mr.Right]

When St.Lawrence played Williams in 1998 for the national title or excuse me the opportunity to go to the Final Four it was an absolute blizzard but they kept that game on the grass. If you look at that live cam for Calvin it looks like 2 or maybe 3 inches on the ground nothing a little sunlight couldn't melt

[Ryan Harmanis]

I don't have any details (yet) on how bad Calvin's field is, but I'd agree it should be an advantage for OWU...in a hypothetical matchup with Calvin. However, it could give PSU-Behrend an advantage tomorrow, as Behrend plays its home games on turf.

Then again, OWU's home field is wide, and they benefit more from having a sure surface to play on the ground. Bigger fields should help the better team, especially if that's what it's used to. But is OWU better than Behrend? Granted, 2/3 losses for the Lions came against weak NCAC teams, but we'll see.