2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[CentennialFan]

Since you picked Cortland and seem to be the only one to pick this upset..Give us totals on shots, corners, SOG, fouls. etc?  I have a hunch Messiah might stumble but not until the Final 4 possibly Elite 8.

Mr. Right, it's just a hunch, just a little earlier than yours...
In my opinion, stats really do not matter as much at this point in the tournament anyway.
ANYTHING can happen, and it probably will.
Case in point Catholic could have just as easily been in the Sweet 16 instead of Muhlenberg if that call was made in the box awarding a PK in the second OT...

I was just kidding and trying to get you to guess stats with the Cortland pick. Since you are no fun I will do it for you

                                       SHOTS                    SOG                      CK                  FOULS                     

Messiah                              23                          11                         7                     9
Cortland St                           8                           3                          4                     17

But even with those lopsided numbers Cortland could still win 1-0  Look what happened in the Centennial tournament with #4F&M and Haverford, with Haverford coming out on top 2-0 in that one...Still gonna be a great weekend to watch the 2 games at Muhlenberg, and hoping to attend at least 1 of them...The fans up there are almost as fun to watch as the game itself...

[KICKIN95]

Here's a Final 4 prediction I am sure is a one of a kind

F&M
Loras
Muhlenburg
CNU

These 16 are really strong sides, I truly think any one of the teams left is capable of knocking their perspective opponents off.

[Falconer]

I'm one Messiah fan who regards Lynchburg as the real national champion for 2010. If there exists a video from another angle showing that there wasn't actually a foul leading to the tying goal, I haven't seen it. A few people who saw it live aren't certain there should have been a call (including people who are quick to admit when the Falcons benefit from a blown call), so I leave just a little room for doubt in their minds--but not in mine, since I wasn't there and I can only go with the publicly available footage. I also agree that the consequences of that (probable) blown call are as large as they get--I'd put it up there with the "hand of God" non-call in the World Cup.

However, the non-PK/straight red for the keeper in that Muhlenburg-Catholic game is even more egregious, IMO. I can't imagine any angle from which that's not a must call. The consequences weren't as big, since it wasn't the national final, but it's even worse. Players get hurt when those kinds of calls aren't being made, not usually when guys initiate a bump to get some space. There was a similar play in the tournament in 2002, when Messiah's striker Matt Bills was pulled down--not "taken down" (as the Hopkins web site has it) or tripped, but actually pulled down--by the keeper for Johns Hopkins. That should also have been a straight red on the keeper, but if memory serves it was either a yellow and a PK or just a PK. Bills made the PK and that was the only score for the game: http://www.hopkinssports.com/sports/m-soccer/recaps/111302aaa.html.

[PaulNewman]

I refuse to either tempt fate by jinxing OWU or pick against them, but

Fun fact: not to to bury the lead for my preview, but Ohio Wesleyan has never - I'll repeat, never - lost to the same team twice in one season under Jay Martin.

Well, I managed to inhibit a knee-jerk reaction for almost 12 hours (improvement), but, alas, I am weak...and competitive...and superstitious.  Just not able to turn a blind eye, especially given the utilization of emphatics.  So, I would present...

A)  As recently as 2012, OWU lost to DePauw in the regular season 3-2 and lost a PK shootout to DePauw in the NCAC tournament final.  And also lost  to Depauw 4-2 in the 2011 NCAC final.  So actually THREE losses in a row inside of a year.  And ALL of them at the Jay Martin Soccer Complex.  If this doesn't count on the technicality of a PKs game "loss" going into the books as a tie, then consider...

B) As recently as this season, OWU has so far played two teams twice (Calvin and Kenyon) for a total of 4 games and has won exactly none, going 0-2-2...unless of course we do count prevailing in PKs as a win.

OWU certainly is good enough to win a national title or at a minimum advance from the sectional.  That said, this is OWU's comparatively weakest team in 4 years and Kenyon's strongest team in 4 years. Should be a great one.

[Brother Flounder]

Here's a Final 4 prediction I am sure is a one of a kind

F&M
Loras
Muhlenburg
CNU

These 16 are really strong sides, I truly think any one of the teams left is capable of knocking their perspective opponents off.

Muhlenberg has to get past Tufts and Messiah....... IMHO, I really don't see that happening....... Those are 2 great teams.

I do agree that anyone of the 16 teams can make a run and win it......

[oldonionbag]

I can't decide who would give Messiah a better game. I'm leaning towards Tufts simply because of the weapons they have offensively...then again I'm not intimately familiar with Muhlenberg so...

[PaulNewman]

I can't decide who would give Messiah a better game. I'm leaning towards Tufts simply because of the weapons they have offensively...then again I'm not intimately familiar with Muhlenberg so...

Tufts is unlikely to beat Messiah in a fully open shootout type of game.  The question is whether they can be air-tight defensively AND still be dynamic and dangerous offensively.  Muhlenberg is going to play very tight defensively.  The question for the Mules is whether they wil be able to score.

And Brother Flounder, would you like Muhlenberg's chances (or Tufts') if you knew ahead of time that Cortland was going to upset Messiah?  Doubt that's going to happen but there are scenarios that could work for all these teams and part of the excitement is that none of us know for sure what is going to play out.

[Brother Flounder]

I can't decide who would give Messiah a better game. I'm leaning towards Tufts simply because of the weapons they have offensively...then again I'm not intimately familiar with Muhlenberg so...

Tufts is unlikely to beat Messiah in a fully open shootout type of game.  The question is whether they can be air-tight defensively AND still be dynamic and dangerous offensively.  Muhlenberg is going to play very tight defensively.  The question for the Mules is whether they wil be able to score.

And Brother Flounder, would you like Muhlenberg's chances (or Tufts') if you knew ahead of time that Cortland was going to upset Messiah?  Doubt that's going to happen but there are scenarios that could work for all these teams and part of the excitement is that none of us know for sure what is going to play out.

Well, that is a difficult question because I haven't researched them and know little about them.  Maybe you can fill me in on Cortland, because, I think any team can get hot now, and even with some luck, and win it.

Regarding Tufts v. Muhlenberg, I think Tufts has a very diverse offensive attack and has picked up their scoring lately so they make it somewhat difficult to defend.  I thought Dickenson had a strong defense and an excellent center back but Tufts was able to score twice....

Notwithstanding, I wouldn't bet my house on any of these games at this stage.  i will just sit back and enjoy.......

[Ryan Harmanis]

I refuse to either tempt fate by jinxing OWU or pick against them, but

Fun fact: not to to bury the lead for my preview, but Ohio Wesleyan has never - I'll repeat, never - lost to the same team twice in one season under Jay Martin.

Well, I managed to inhibit a knee-jerk reaction for almost 12 hours (improvement), but, alas, I am weak...and competitive...and superstitious.  Just not able to turn a blind eye, especially given the utilization of emphatics.  So, I would present...

A)  As recently as 2012, OWU lost to DePauw in the regular season 3-2 and lost a PK shootout to DePauw in the NCAC tournament final.  And also lost  to Depauw 4-2 in the 2011 NCAC final.  So actually THREE losses in a row inside of a year.  And ALL of them at the Jay Martin Soccer Complex.  If this doesn't count on the technicality of a PKs game "loss" going into the books as a tie, then consider...

B) As recently as this season, OWU has so far played two teams twice (Calvin and Kenyon) for a total of 4 games and has won exactly none, going 0-2-2...unless of course we do count prevailing in PKs as a win.

OWU certainly is good enough to win a national title or at a minimum advance from the sectional.  That said, this is OWU's comparatively weakest team in 4 years and Kenyon's strongest team in 4 years. Should be a great one.

My facts are correct. Calling penalties a "technicality" actually gets it wrong. Labeling a penalty shootout a loss is incorrect both in how the NCAA labels these games and in actual fact, because you don't lose the game, you lose the shootout. That's why every penalty "loss" is considered a draw, with one team advancing via penalty shootout. The sole exception is the national championship game, because that (according to the NCAA) requires a "loser." So, if Kenyon advances on penalties Saturday, that record would remain.

As for OWU, in 2011 they lost to DePauw in the conference championship but beat them in the regular season. In 2012 OWU lost to DePauw in the regular season and drew in the conference tournament. My point being, no team has won - not advanced on penalties - twice against OWU in the same season. Notice I said "season," not calendar year, so trying to use the 2011 and 2012 seasons together to make your point doesn't really work.

You're absolutely correct on results against Calvin and Kenyon (0-2-2), but that doesn't change the underlying point I was making. That is, it's very difficult to beat the same team twice in one season. It's even harder to go through three games against another strong team without taking a loss - ask Amherst about that. Now I'm not saying Kenyon can't or won't do it, as I think they're as well equipped as anyone this side of Messiah, but facts remain facts and the fact is that Ohio Wesleyan has never lost two games to one team in one season under Jay Martin. Whether that's still true after Saturday remains to be seen.

[PaulNewman]

Yes, I'm well aware of what you're doing there, and that's why I anticipated your response.  You're making something bigger than it is, on purpose of course, while diminishing equally compelling data.  A couple of points.  The sample size for what you want to be the key archival/psychological find for this game by definition is small.  And as you say, your point applies to virtually all teams in all sports.  It's hard to beat good teams several times, but then you are implying there is some even more extra aspect about OWU's run in this regard under Jay Martin, and some even greater significance in this instance.  Clearly, you think it is a big deal beyond the norm, so you must have some theory about it.  His peerless coaching?  Karma?  Dominant players for years against schools that have not had any similar significant stretches of excellence?  What exactly?  In other words, what really is your point?  Glossing over the draws also has the effect of discounting them.  In terms of this rivalry OWU of course has dominated but in the national title year of 2011 when Kenyon wasn't particularly good the Lords led 1-0 at Roy Rike late into the 2nd half, earned an away draw in 2012, and earned another away draw in 2013.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Yes, I'm well aware of what you're doing there, and that's why I anticipated your response.  You're making something bigger than it is, on purpose of course, while diminishing equally compelling data.  A couple of points.  The sample size for what you want to be the key archival/psychological find for this game by definition is small.  And as you say, your point applies to virtually all teams in all sports.  It's hard to beat good teams several times, but then you are implying there is some even more extra aspect about OWU's run in this regard under Jay Martin, and some even greater significance in this instance.  Clearly, you think it is a big deal beyond the norm, so you must have some theory about it.  His peerless coaching?  Karma?  Dominant players for years against schools that have not had any similar significant stretches of excellence?  What exactly?  In other words, what really is your point?  Glossing over the draws also has the effect of discounting them.  In terms of this rivalry OWU of course has dominated but in the national title year of 2011 when Kenyon wasn't particularly good the Lords led 1-0 at Roy Rike late into the 2nd half, earned an away draw in 2012, and earned another away draw in 2013.

You're blowing this way out of proportion, and frankly I wasn't trying to imply anything about Kenyon or its rivalry with OWU. My train of thought was this: "It's hard to beat a team twice in the same season, and if Kenyon beats OWU again then that's one heck of a team." So, while I was looking at every team's history to write the piece for the website, I pulled the OWU media guide and noticed nobody had ever done it before. I figured, rightfully so considering the circumstances, that it was an interesting thing to point out when considering predictions about the weekend.

It's not meant to be an "archival/psychological find," whatever that means. I highly doubt the guys playing Saturday will read this, but clearly it's a fact - again, a fact, not an opinion - that holds some interest for fans considering it has you up in arms.

Bottom line, to answer your question directly, my point was that it was a very interesting fact that has some bearing on this game, especially because Kenyon is looking to do something no team has ever done before. From a personal perspective, I suppose you could say that, if these teams seem to be as close as they've been in two games, maybe OWU gets the bounce this time. If not, then it really just speaks to the quality of this Kenyon team.

Look, this is a message board where we get together to discuss Division III soccer. I made a highly relevant, factually accurate statement about two teams that happen to be playing in the Sweet Sixteen on Saturday. That's all. If you have opinions you'd like to express, as you did in the last half of your post, I'm happy to talk about how you think the game will play out or about the history between Kenyon and Ohio Wesleyan. But really, I was just surprised/impressed by what I found and I included it. End of story.

[PaulNewman]

Listen, I love your stuff, even most of the OWU-Kenyon stuff, but you've done this same exact type of thing in the lead-up to all 3 of these games, and always very much in OWU's favor.  You've made a point of highlighting, underlining and "let me repeat" 3 times now on this one.  Since you made it a big deal it seems you would offer your explanation of the phenomenon.  You badly want your team to win.  I get it.  On that we both agree.

[Sherlock Holmes]

NCAC, as an outside observer, I really think he was just stating a cool little fact. I think the average DIII fan reading that would think "Oh, that's interesting". Not "Oh man, that guy is such a OWU homer". Knowing very little about OWU or Kenyon, I frankly thought his East Sectional preview was pretty solid in terms of being pretty non-biased. Particularly because he put that specific part in the section on "Why They Will Advance", not the general knowledge about the team. I felt like he gave Kenyon just as much love in that same section.

[Ryan Harmanis]

In terms of explaining the stat? I think you probably hit most of the highlights, it's some combination of talent, coaching, sustained success, etc. And I truly think it's in part psychological, as from both playing and coaching I've found that to play a huge role in things. I wasn't trying to jab at Kenyon or anything, those points are made more in an attempt to guess what the mental state of any team might be heading into a game.

For example, when I played Kenyon was the only team that made me think if we both played our best, they could still pull out a win. Even though we won almost all of those games, they were usually competitive and tight, and that's something that always stuck out to me when I prepared. So from the other side, I assume the same thing would play a role.

I think your other point may be a lack of objectivity, which is probably true. That's really why I try to keep it factual when it comes to OWU games unless it's a critical point, and a broad historical fact is usually free from bias. The second viewpoint - Kenyon has controlled both games to an extent, OWU is 0-2-2 against the best two teams they've played, is definitely also relevant. I tried to really hit that in the article with the "why Kenyon will win" section.

Transitioning to actual thoughts on the game, any word on Kenyon's injuries? Seemed like they definitely lost a little something without a few of the bigger guys in the game against Thomas More.

[GarbageGoals33]

This is way more entertaining than Mr. Right vs. Off Pitch....