Pool C -- 2014

[wally_wabash]

Forgot about the fan poll thing deal bit. We need Wes to come back and fill ours in!

We should include Chicago and Framingham (or TLU) as a one-loss "C" potentials unless they mess up somehow.

If everybody who I think should win does win from here on out (which is far from a guarantee if you've been following my year in the pick 'ems), I actually think the top rated B team (after Wesley) is going to be Framingham State.  I think they've going to get an RRO win against Endicott and possibly a second RRO result with Rowan depending on how the East region eats itself in November.  The regional rankings are absolutely going to be kinder to the Rams than the fan balloting has been.  I think  Chicago is going to lose their RRO win that I'm currently giving them with Elmnurst.  And I think TLU is going to have their SOS taken down significantly and be left with zero quality wins and an unflattering result against the only RRO they played.  The wild card is Rhodes and whether or not the South RAC finds room for them in the rankings.  If so, Chicago is definitely back in play and it becomes maybe a toss up with the Maroons and the fRams. 

Now, as far those teams in the C Pool, I think Chciago is a long shot because I'm not sure they can get close enough to the front of the line to get in.  At best, I see Chicago as the third team in line in the North and, well, "you're not gonna get three."  Framingham, on the other hand, could absolutely climb up to be the second team in line out of the East...maybe even the first team in line.  They'd actually have a decent shot as a single loss team in Pool C I think.  O, the feathers that would ruffle if that came to pass. 

[smedindy]

I don't know what clamor would be louder, the MASCAC getting an "A" because of NCAA 'reasons' or buffoonery, or a MASCAC team getting a "C", again. I am sure the East will do their normal thing and somehow rank teams in their secret ranking to help themselves especially if Endicott beats MIT.

Though Framingham did acquaint themselves well last year against Ithaca in a close loss.

[d-train]

If the NCAA keeps the flights to a minimum... I just don't see how they avoid a possible Linfield-UMHB 2nd round game. They'd have 1 flight in the 1st round and 1 (maybe 2 depending on what Husson does) in the 2nd round. Hopefully they splurge for an extra flight so that isn't the case.

Yeah, that really should be a 3rd round game - but the almightly dollar might rule the day.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

With the assumption that the first two rounds should have as few flights as possible here's the pods that could work with the current projected field (and the top couple teams in each bracket).


Texas Lutheran @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor (only schools within 500 miles of each other)
Chapman @ (2) Linfield (west coast orphans)

MIT @ (3) Hobart
Husson @ Montclair St (Husson can only get to MIT or Montclair)

----

Concordia (WI) @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Carroll @ Bethel

St Scholastica @ (2) Wartburg
UW-Stevens Point @ Concordia-Moorhead (C-M makes things tough... only 5 teams can reach and one is Bethel)

----

Christopher Newport @ (1) Mount Union
Centre @ Wheaton

Trine @ (2) Wabash
Franklin @ UW-Platteville (I'd rather have Wheaton and Platteville swapped but Centre is too far away)

----

Delaware Valley @ (1) Wesley
St John Fisher @ Washington & Jefferson

Hampden-Sydney @ (2) Johns Hopkins
John Carroll @ Widener


I did fill in a few future results (such as DelVal-Widener) and I simply chose the current conference leader as the winner.

I basically built the bracket from the top down (except for the Hobart pod which I filled in later on) or if you prefer west to east. I don't like that Delaware Valley ends up as essentially an 8 seed in their bracket but there weren't any obvious choices geographically once I had filled in all the other teams (moving Chris Newport to Wesley still leaves the same problem only with Mount Union rather than Wesley)

Now if Stevens Point drops out of the last Pool C spot and a team not in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area takes it that would free up some flexibility. Platteville could move over and face C-M, Trine to Mount Union, Franklin to Wabash, Chris Newport to Wesley, and so on.

Given that there's still 3 weeks of action left... these should be considered pre-pre-preliminary projections and taken with a giant block of salt. I'm sure there's something I missed but it's not too bad for still having more than 1/4 of the season left.

[bashgiant]

Now if Stevens Point drops out of the last Pool C spot and a team not in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area takes it that would free up some flexibility. Platteville could move over and face C-M, Trine to Mount Union, Franklin to Wabash, Chris Newport to Wesley, and so on.

The Franklin Wabash match up would be interesting.

[cave2bens]

Now if Stevens Point drops out of the last Pool C spot and a team not in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area takes it that would free up some flexibility. Platteville could move over and face C-M, Trine to Mount Union, Franklin to Wabash, Chris Newport to Wesley, and so on.
pose a threat
The Franklin Wabash match up would be interesting.

Projections are interesting fodder and if Wabash's remaining schedule consisted of NCAC bottom-dwellers everyone is seemingly on track.  There are three games to play out, and though Hiram may not pose a major threat a summary dismissal of DePauw (as a spoiler which has happened before  ) or Wittenberg (still unbeaten in DIII matches) on these recent pages might be premature.  Post season inclusion is dependent on LG victories in back to back rivalry games - and this old geezer believes in that positive outcome but forty-six years of history is always in the back of his feeble brain.    WAF   

[D3MAFAN]

With the assumption that the first two rounds should have as few flights as possible here's the pods that could work with the current projected field (and the top couple teams in each bracket).


Texas Lutheran @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor (only schools within 500 miles of each other)
Chapman @ (2) Linfield (west coast orphans)

MIT @ (3) Hobart
Husson @ Montclair St (Husson can only get to MIT or Montclair)

----

Concordia (WI) @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Carroll @ Bethel

St Scholastica @ (2) Wartburg
UW-Stevens Point @ Concordia-Moorhead (C-M makes things tough... only 5 teams can reach and one is Bethel)

----

Christopher Newport @ (1) Mount Union
Centre @ Wheaton

Trine @ (2) Wabash
Franklin @ UW-Platteville (I'd rather have Wheaton and Platteville swapped but Centre is too far away)

----

Delaware Valley @ (1) Wesley
St John Fisher @ Washington & Jefferson

Hampden-Sydney @ (2) Johns Hopkins
John Carroll @ Widener


I did fill in a few future results (such as DelVal-Widener) and I simply chose the current conference leader as the winner.

I basically built the bracket from the top down (except for the Hobart pod which I filled in later on) or if you prefer west to east. I don't like that Delaware Valley ends up as essentially an 8 seed in their bracket but there weren't any obvious choices geographically once I had filled in all the other teams (moving Chris Newport to Wesley still leaves the same problem only with Mount Union rather than Wesley)

Now if Stevens Point drops out of the last Pool C spot and a team not in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area takes it that would free up some flexibility. Platteville could move over and face C-M, Trine to Mount Union, Franklin to Wabash, Chris Newport to Wesley, and so on.

Given that there's still 3 weeks of action left... these should be considered pre-pre-preliminary projections and taken with a giant block of salt. I'm sure there's something I missed but it's not too bad for still having more than 1/4 of the season left.

I believe if St. John Fisher goes 9-1, they would definitely have a home game, I see it as

MIT @ St. John Fisher
Husson @ Hobart
Montclair State @ Washington & Jefferson

[wally_wabash]

Now if Stevens Point drops out of the last Pool C spot and a team not in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area takes it that would free up some flexibility. Platteville could move over and face C-M, Trine to Mount Union, Franklin to Wabash, Chris Newport to Wesley, and so on.
pose a threat
The Franklin Wabash match up would be interesting.

Projections are interesting fodder and if Wabash's remaining schedule consisted of NCAC bottom-dwellers everyone is seemingly on track.  There are three games to play out, and though Hiram may not pose a major threat a summary dismissal of DePauw (as a spoiler which has happened before  ) or Wittenberg (still unbeaten in DIII matches) on these recent pages might be premature.  Post season inclusion is dependent on LG victories in back to back rivalry games - and this old geezer believes in that positive outcome but forty-six years of history is always in the back of his feeble brain.    WAF   

No dismissing anybody or anything...nothing is in ink here.   

I believe if St. John Fisher goes 9-1, they would definitely have a home game, I see it as

MIT @ St. John Fisher
Husson @ Hobart
Montclair State @ Washington & Jefferson

I would probably guess that 9-1 SJF with a conference championship plays a home game also.  Husson can't go Hobart without flying, so that's probably right out.  Right now it's hard to see Husson playing anybody other than Montclair State. 

[bashgiant]

Now if Stevens Point drops out of the last Pool C spot and a team not in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area takes it that would free up some flexibility. Platteville could move over and face C-M, Trine to Mount Union, Franklin to Wabash, Chris Newport to Wesley, and so on.
pose a threat
The Franklin Wabash match up would be interesting.

Projections are interesting fodder and if Wabash's remaining schedule consisted of NCAC bottom-dwellers everyone is seemingly on track.  There are three games to play out, and though Hiram may not pose a major threat a summary dismissal of DePauw (as a spoiler which has happened before  ) or Wittenberg (still unbeaten in DIII matches) on these recent pages might be premature.  Post season inclusion is dependent on LG victories in back to back rivalry games - and this old geezer believes in that positive outcome but forty-six years of history is always in the back of his feeble brain.    WAF

Not saying anything is set in stone by any means. Anything can happen on any given Saturday as we witnessed 2 years ago. I was just saying that would be a pretty interesting match up since the 2 schools are fairly close to each other and both schools seem to have decent programs. Have they ever played each other?

GO BASH!

[GillCJ1]

I know we are dealing in some hypotheticals here, but let me just make sure I understand things right.  So, assuming TLU doesn't get into the playoffs, is it likely that the winner of the SCIAC (Chapman or Redlands) would probably travel to face UMHB in Round 1?

By the way, love all the work you guys put into this stuff.  It's fun to theorize and look at what the bigger picture might look like.

[wally_wabash]

Not saying anything is set in stone by any means. Anything can happen on any given Saturday as we witnessed 2 years ago. I was just saying that would be a pretty interesting match up since the 2 schools are fairly close to each other and both schools seem to have decent programs. Have they ever played each other?

GO BASH!

Franklin and Wabash?  They were in the same league for a long, long time.  Are we far enough removed from the ICAC days that some of my fellow Wallies aren't even aware that it ever happened?? Now I feel old. 

In the time since Wabash and Franklin were in the same conference, the two schools played a home and home series in 2006/2007.  Franklin won at their place in OT in 2006, Wabash won a tight and exciting game in 2007 (Dustin Huff broke the single game total offense record in that game- 499 yards- record still stands).   Chad Rupp was a monster for Franklin.  Those were two of the best games I've seen in the last decade. 

[wally_wabash]

I know we are dealing in some hypotheticals here, but let me just make sure I understand things right.  So, assuming TLU doesn't get into the playoffs, is it likely that the winner of the SCIAC (Chapman or Redlands) would probably travel to face UMHB in Round 1?

By the way, love all the work you guys put into this stuff.  It's fun to theorize and look at what the bigger picture might look like.

I wish it were likely.  I really, really do.  Having a NWC/SCIAC round is boring, particularly when those two teams have already played this year.  I hope, in the event that UMHB is orphaned (forcing two first round flights no matter what), that they'll send the SCIAC champion to Texas and send somebody else to Linfield.  My hunch is that you'll still get a SCIAC/NWC first round game even in this scenario, but at least this scenario opens the door for them to do something different. 

[Ron Boerger]

Recognize TLU's SOS will take a big hit after they play currently winless Southwestern and two-win Trinity.    Austin (3-3 v D3) might help the SOS if they can beat both Trinity and Southwestern.   There are two statements I thought I would never make ...

Pat has confirmed elsewhere that the SAA does have an "A" bid.   

Where the difference lies with the SAA is that the conference only needed to be in existence for two years (five or more schools with football by NCAA standards) and have seven football programs in the third year. It does not have to have seven teams for two years and then qualify in the third. That's where our preseason thinking was off.

[Pat Coleman]

Recognize TLU's SOS will take a big hit after they play currently winless Southwestern and two-win Trinity.    Austin (3-3 v D3) might help the SOS if they can beat both Trinity and Southwestern.   There are two statements I thought I would never make ...

Pat has confirmed elsewhere that the SAA does have an "A" bid.   

Where the difference lies with the SAA is that the conference only needed to be in existence for two years (five or more schools with football by NCAA standards) and have seven football programs in the third year. It does not have to have seven teams for two years and then qualify in the third. That's where our preseason thinking was off.

Well ... to be perfectly clear on this, the NCAA has listed both SAA and MASCAC in the AQs for 2014. We're only objecting to the MASCAC based on the rules. Not sure this *quite* gets to the level of confirmed but it's pretty solid.

[bashgiant]

Not saying anything is set in stone by any means. Anything can happen on any given Saturday as we witnessed 2 years ago. I was just saying that would be a pretty interesting match up since the 2 schools are fairly close to each other and both schools seem to have decent programs. Have they ever played each other?

GO BASH!

Franklin and Wabash?  They were in the same league for a long, long time.  Are we far enough removed from the ICAC days that some of my fellow Wallies aren't even aware that it ever happened?? Now I feel old. 

In the time since Wabash and Franklin were in the same conference, the two schools played a home and home series in 2006/2007.  Franklin won at their place in OT in 2006, Wabash won a tight and exciting game in 2007 (Dustin Huff broke the single game total offense record in that game- 499 yards- record still stands).   Chad Rupp was a monster for Franklin.  Those were two of the best games I've seen in the last decade.

I've only been following Wabash for a couple years. You're only as old as you feel. Guess that makes me a fossil.
GO BASH!