Pool C -- 2014

[Tekken]

Not provoking anything, those are facts.  The regional ranking committees take record against RRO into account.  It's right there in black and white in the FAQ.


Also, FWIW, someone with authority....the current SoS are ever so slightly off.  The Rhodes/Millsaps game for some reason on their schedules is already complete, with last year's result.  That result is factored into the current SoS model, slightly altering everyone who played them and everyone who played someone who played them.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph - the CAC isn't going to add football. I think they made a play at it on paper, but then screwed up with the addition of Harrisburg to the conference. They had a chance, but didn't get the right ducks aligned. I also think the Landmark may have made a play (even though, several I have talked with in the conference disagree with me - I don't think they are telling me the whole story), but the got caught up in the Mid-Atlantic shuffle that the CAC made the play recently with. I don't see any conference in this area adding football unless another conference (or more) are blown up - and that won't change the AQ situation.

Also... Division III growth has slowed as, I would say, has the growth of football. I think there are legitimate reasons to add the sport and/or join the division... but they have slowed down in recent years.

Thanks Dave! I don't see where a "brand new conference" would come from to "steal" another Pool A bid.

[Tekken]

must be a TLU grad working at the NCAA... 

UMHB didn't play SWAGU.  Their game against TLU gets removed take it from 9-0 to 8-0.


Also, it turns out the NCAA could (and will) use the help of a TLU grad given their attention to Millsaps/Rhodes.   

[D3AlumniParent]

must be a TLU grad working at the NCAA... 

Turns out the NCAA could (and will) use the help of a TLU grad given their attention to Millsaps/Rhodes.   

Well done, Timmy, my boy! 

[smedindy]

Do you think those teams will add football, Ralph?

UT-Tyler would require a vote by the student body to increase the activities fee by several hundred dollars and then require some major capital investment in facilities.  Probably not!
LeTourneau -- not likely.
Concordia TX -- Interesting.  Their academic profile is as close to the SCAC as it is to the ASC. It would make for an interesting move to add football if you did not have to play UMHB.
UT-Dallas -- I haven't heard.  That is more of an urban school. UT-Arlington only recently resumed football. The Dallas Cowboys smother a lot of interest and UT, OU, A&M Texas Tech Okie State  and now TCU and Baylor have large followings among those that do.
University of the Ozarks -- very small campus and very isolated.  Travel would be a real stretch on the budget.


Belhaven and McMurry are coming on-line so that takes a little of the pressure off in the ASC.


As for the SCAC...
Schreiner played football as a JUCO long ago.
UDallas failed in the early 2000's to add football.
Centenary -- I thought that Centenary would when they hired McMurry's VP for admissions (Dave Voskuil).  (Then Dave went to Southwestern and now he is at E&H with President Jake Shrum, Southwestern's former president. Dave Voskuil is excellent. E&H has a great one!) As for Centenary, not yet.
Colorado College  -- they will probably vote out Marijuana in Colorado before CC resumes football.

Good info, Ralph. Forgot about Bellhaven and McMurry. The SCAC may be our lone wolf conference out there without a bid and no one likely to poach.

[D3AlumniParent]

Here's a link to a spreadsheet with both Centre's and TLU's SOS. I estimated the past opponents for both teams win at a .500 percentage.

I'll update as the scores come in, but either way the the difference should drop from 0.098 to about 0.055.

http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

[Tekken]

Parent - the one very predictable thing you've failed to account for is that SW's OWP will rise significantly adding in TLU's 8-1 record just as (even moreso statistically) TLU's will fall adding in SW's 1-6 record.  That affect will be minimized based on the multiplier, but will then be passed on to TLU's OOWP.

[wesleydad]

Really interesting conversation.  I am not a numbers person so all the SOS stuff is blah to me.  I just find it hard to believe that a 10-0 team will not be in the playoffs.  I get all the criteria and stuff, but it just seems wrong to me.

[MonroviaCat]

Really interesting conversation.  I am not a numbers person so all the SOS stuff is blah to me.  I just find it hard to believe that a 10-0 team will not be in the playoffs.  I get all the criteria and stuff, but it just seems wrong to me.

It wouldn't be the end of the D3 regular season/playoff selection weekend without a few things being wrong..... 

[smedindy]

Sorry I was monopolizing things - girlfriend is out of town and I was waiting for exports to keep running at work.

It's time to let this play out! The games are afoot!

[D3AlumniParent]

Parent - the one very predictable thing you've failed to account for is that SW's OWP will rise significantly adding in TLU's 8-1 record just as (even moreso statistically) TLU's will fall adding in SW's 1-6 record.  That affect will be minimized based on the multiplier, but will then be passed on to TLU's OOWP.

"Very predictable"? I think you're overestimating me...

Great observation Tim.  And the effect to SW's SOS will be even greater since there were only 6 games on the schedule that made up that number.

In turn Centre's SOS will be higher than I calculated since B-S's SOS will also rise.

The net effect of all this week raise both TLU's & Centre's SOS a bit but the difference between the 2 numbers should be about the same- perhaps growing ever so slightly.

I'll plug in the #s when I get to my PC then will send an update.

[D3AlumniParent]

Question: Why are some supporting Emory & Henry as a potential Regional Ranked team, yet I don't know that I've heard anyone mention Rhodes?

E&H: 8-1, SOS.478 (#161), 0-1 vs RR. Best win probably Bridgewater.
Rhodes: 7-2, SOS .508 (#100), 0-2 vs RR. They were beating Chicago w/5 mins to play & lost on FG w/12 secs left. Best win probably Hendrix

Not looking to argue. Just want to know other peoples' opinions on why Rhodes is getting no love. 

[smedindy]

9-1 in the ODAC, traditionally a good conference, and win over Guilford will help SOS.

Of course, they'd HAVE to win over Guilford, and they won't now. Alas.

[Tekken]

Perfect storm may have relocated to Seguin.  TLU handles its business, but so do Centre and Muhlenburg.  Hardin-Simmons, Emory and Henry loses and Rhodes wins.  Who is the 10?  Things are about to get very interesting.

[cubs]

Well, you can take Bethel off the list of the Pool C hopefuls...  They lose to 62-61 to a 4-6 Augsburg team in OT today.