Pool C -- 2014

[jknezek]

Mark Emmert visited UChicago yesterday when he was in town. I should have asked him when I met him. Maybe he would have known the status of the MASCAC.

I would be interested if he knew what the MASCAC was without prompting...

[wally_wabash]

Alright, let's do this again.  This week we're going to roll with the SAA in Pool A, the MASCAC not, and an A/B/C breakdown of 25/2/5.  It's really close as to whether or not Pool B is one bid or two.  Hopefully we can find some clarity (drink!) soon. 

Here we go.  Pool A, new teams in italics:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Husson
E8	St. John Fisher
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Widener
MIAA	Trine
MIAC	Bethel
MWC	Carroll
NACC	Concordia (Wis)
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	Western New England
NJAC	Montclair State
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SAA	Centre
SCIAC	Chapman
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Huntingdon
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

- Castleton State lost which left Husson at the top of a tightly bunched ECFC.  This is a one-bid league, so no at-large dominoes are falling here.  Fun race to watch though with five teams at 3-0 or 2-1. 
- Centre is new because last week I didn't give the SAA a bid. 
- Huntingdon is new this week because, well, I goofed last week.  As of last week, the Hawks had already beaten CNU and Maryville and should have been listed.  My bad. 

Pool B:
Wesley (4-0, 5-0 in D3, 0.712 SOS, 3-0 vs. RRO)
Texas Lutheran (6-0, 0.542 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)

TLU is the pick this week, but things get really interesting for them if they lose by 60 to UMHB this week (totally possible).  If TLU loses in a fashion that isn't flattering, we're going to pull in Framingham State (5-1, 0.650 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO) and Chicago back in for this second bid.  And for right now, with the SAA out of Pool B, it's basically those three teams (TLU, FSU, UC) for that one non-Wesley Pool B bid. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
John Carroll (6-0, 0.522 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (5-2, 0.448 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Delaware Valley (6-0, 0.604 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
UW-Platteville (5-1, 0.551 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)

-Taking Delaware Valley first here based SOS, the nice win against Lycoming, and another really nice win against Montclair State who isn't ranked by the East region voters, but is in my tournament field at the moment.  Del Val and Widener are racing toward a 9-0 vs. 9-0 game in week 11. 

Round 2:
John Carroll (6-0, 0.522 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (5-2, 0.448 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.563 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
UW-Platteville (5-1, 0.551 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)

- JCU is the next best option with their undefeated record and RRO win (My assumption is that Heidelberg remains ranked despite their second loss as everybody after the top six teams in the North region keeps losing as well and Heidelberg is not likely to lose again).  JCU and UMU are probably both very safely in when they play for the OAC title in week 11. 

Round 3:
Wittenberg (5-0, 0.536 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (5-2, 0.448 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.563 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
UW-Platteville (5-1, 0.551 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)

- Now this is interesting.  Witt was selected last week (and maybe they will be this week...I'm hammering this out stream-of-consciousness style) but DePauw losing to OWU likely takes them out of the regional rankings and costs Wittenberg a precious RRO result.  I digress.  Here in round 3 it's razor thin for me between Buffalo State and UW-Platteville, and I'm leaning toward Platteville based on not just the quality win (I think UW-SP still has the résumé of a ranked team- for now) and they have a quality loss, whereas Buff State's loss to Alfred gets less respectable each week.  Fear not E8 friends...I have a feeling Buff State will be ok. 

Round 4:
Wittenberg (5-0, 0.536 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (5-2, 0.448 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.563 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (5-1, 0.551 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)

- Copy and past from the Platteville or Buff State situation above.  C-M and Platteville have basically identical profiles so the same reasoning applies. 

And now I have a conundrum.  I've operated with the caveat that once I select an at-large team from one league, I remove other teams from that league from at-large consideration.  But here in the West, my next four teams are either MIAC teams or WIAC teams (the gap is that wide).  And right now, if there were a regional ranking, I can't see a scenario where somebody like Northwestern or Macalester is ranked.  So I'm going to break my rule, and reinstate the candidacy for the next team up in the West- St. John's

Round 5:
Wittenberg (5-0, 0.536 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (5-2, 0.448 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.563 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
St. John's (5-1, 0.568 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)

- Welp.  I lied about Buff State.  Applying the same logic that I've been using today, if I took UW-P and C-M with slightly lower SOS's than Buff State, why would I pass on St. John's who has a higher SOS?  Answer: I wouldn't.  Not included is last week's win at Gustavus Adolphus (I don't think they can be in the West's top 10 with their SOS), but that was a really nice win in a tough spot there for the Johnnies. 

A couple of other notes here:
- Witt is undefeated and uninvited which is weird.  1) They're not really undefeated and I think that would matter, even if not officially.  2) That SOS is going to be a high water mark for Witt.  That will settle down to something closer to 0.500 as they still have games left with Allegheny and Kenyon.  3) the RRO result (DePauw) going away crushed them.  If DePauw stays ranked, Witt is in, no question. 
- Today the MIAC places three teams in my field.  There is ZERO PERCENT chance that this happens on Selection Sunday.  Too many head-to-heads left and too many losses to accumulate amongst these teams bunched at the top for them to not whack each other down to one viable at-large play. 
- Keep an eye on Oshkosh.  They're probably going to take it on the chin at the Perk this weekend, but if they get November road wins at Stevens Point and at Platteville, I'll bet they play their way in, despite that crazy (and winless) September schedule. 
- PLU was on thin ice as it was last week, and they fell through last week.  There's not enough schedule help for PLU to be considered from here on out. 

[d-train]

- PLU was on thin ice as it was last week, and they fell through last week.  There's not enough schedule help for PLU to be considered from here on out.

Yup, we're done.  West coast is pretty straight forward (with no Pool C).  Winner of Chapman vs. Redlands goes to Linfield for round 1.

[RLW]

What's RRO?

[02 Warhawk]

What's RRO?

Regional Ranked Opponent

[RLW]

Thanks

[wally_wabash]

What's RRO?

Yep, what he said.  Official regional rankings won't come until after the games of 11/1, but in the meantime I am using the fan polling from each of the regions done by contributors to Post Patterns as a substitute (with the exception of the West, where they don't do a fan poll). 

I would also recommend reading through the playoff FAQ, which should help bring into focus a lot of the criteria that I talk about in the write up, but don't explain entirely.   

[D3MAFAN]

- PLU was on thin ice as it was last week, and they fell through last week.  There's not enough schedule help for PLU to be considered from here on out.

Yup, we're done.  West coast is pretty straight forward (with no Pool C).  Winner of Chapman vs. Redlands goes to Linfield for round 1.

If Chapman wins, I wouldn't mind seeing a rematch, because both teams are better than they were during the first matchup. However, it would be nice to see a second place MIAC, WIAC, or another Midwest team get sent out to Linfield in the 1st round. Maybe if they set up the other regions during the 1st two rounds having majority of the trips bus rides.

[wally_wabash]

- PLU was on thin ice as it was last week, and they fell through last week.  There's not enough schedule help for PLU to be considered from here on out.

Yup, we're done.  West coast is pretty straight forward (with no Pool C).  Winner of Chapman vs. Redlands goes to Linfield for round 1.

If Chapman wins, I wouldn't mind seeing a rematch, because both teams are better than they were during the first matchup. However, it would be nice to see a second place MIAC, WIAC, or another Midwest team get sent out to Linfield in the 1st round. Maybe if they set up the other regions during the 1st two rounds having majority of the trips bus rides.

That's probably the way it works with the teams I have projected today, but if TLU doesn't qualify then UMHB is going to be a geographical orphan which opens up the opportunity to send the SCIAC champion to Texas and somebody else up to Linfield.  Not that we can guarantee the committee would exercise that opportunity to do something a little different (and avoid a regular season rematch if Chapman wins the SCIAC), but it would at least be an option. 

[smedindy]

Are there any contenders for 'surprise team that gets RRd and pulls a bubble team up along with it??"

[Mr. Ypsi]

Are there any contenders for 'surprise team that gets RRd and pulls a bubble team up along with it??"

Well, Wheaton would certainly benefit if Coe or the Elmhurst/IWU winner this week gets ranked.  I'd judge all three to be in the teens in their regions currently.

[wally_wabash]

Are there any contenders for 'surprise team that gets RRd and pulls a bubble team up along with it??"

Well, Wheaton would certainly benefit if Coe or the Elmhurst/IWU winner this week gets ranked.  I'd judge all three to be in the teens in their regions currently.

I can't see a scenario where IWU can be regionally ranked in a way that helps Wheaton's criteria.  They certainly can't lose a fourth game, which means beating both Wheaton and North Central.  And if the context is that Wheaton loses the Brass Bell game this weekend, a second loss knocks them out of Pool C for sure.  If they win the Brass Bell, they'll not have much need for Pool C anyway.   

Elmhurst, on the other hand, could perhaps not only get ranked, but be one of those sneaky, secret, post-Week-11 ranked teams smeds mentioned if they can get to 7-3 by beating North Central on the final Saturday.  THAT situation would also pull into play the CCIW point differential tiebreak, so we wouldn't know how it could affect Wheaton until after all of that calculus was done. 

I think Coe is a real longshot to get ranked out West.  Such a deep region, plus they have a nasty little h2h result with UW-SP lingering which is going to keep them stuck firmly behind the Pointers in that region until such time as Stevens Points loses enough games to not be relevant (which has the added effect of wiping out any small positive that might otherwise exist from the Kohawks having lost that game). 

[USee]

Wally,

Why are there only 5 Pool C bids this year again? Or is that even settled? Is it because there will be 2 pool B bids? and if  pool B team doesn't get selected they are then a Pool C candidate? I can't remember all this.

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

Why are there only 5 Pool C bids this year again? Or is that even settled? Is it because there will be 2 pool B bids? and if  pool B team doesn't get selected they are then a Pool C candidate? I can't remember all this.

I think it's just because that's what is left over to get to 32 teams.  Last week when I was under the impression that the SAA and MASCAC were still not AQ eligible, that made for 24 As, 2 Bs, and then 6 Cs to get to 32.  This week, the SAA gets an AQ, so we have 25 As, 2 Bs, and just 5 Cs.   

I believe the math involved in figuring out how many Pool B bids goes something like this: find the average number of teams in Pool A conferences (which comes out to something just over 8), and divide by the number of teams that are independent or play in conferences that don't qualify for automatic bids (the five independents, 10 MASCACs,  and 4 SCACs or 19 teams total), then drop the remainder (19/8.something = 2.something = 2 bids).  If the SAA (7 teams) isn't an AQ league, then the Bs would  be 27/8.something = 3.something = 3 bids (which is what we had last year).  Now that 8.something would have to be north of 8.7 to still only end up with 2 bids, and I'm sure it isn't that high. 

Now, if you take the MASCACs out and give them a Pool A, then you only get one Pool B, but you've got 26 As and still just the 5 Cs.  I tried to sneak an extra C in there last week, but now that I've looked at it more, I don't think that math works out. 

And yes, any B-eligible teams that don't get selected for one of the B bids migrate to the C pool, although a B-eligible team has never received a C bid.  I think the closest we've come to that is CWRU in 2011.  The Spartans went 9-1 and were either passed over there at the end of the selection process by Illinois College (9-1, very similar profile to CWRU as I recall) or SJF, who had lost twice but held a massive SOS advantage- as they tend to do- and had a favorable common opponent result with CWRU (Rochester).   It may have been that Fisher was selected even before IC and IC was the last team in, but whatever the case, that's as close as we've come to having a B-eligible team get a C bid.  I don't see it happening this year either, although if TLU can lose to UMHB and still stay ahead of a single-loss Chicago team AND the North region cannibalism continues through the end of the season, then the Maroons might have a slim shot at taking a C bid.  That's a lot of stars that have to align for that to happen though. Which, now that i think about it, brings us back to Elmhurst- Chicago could be the team that would benefit the most from Elmhurst sneaking into those final double-secret rankings.  Rhodes is win this Saturday away from probably being a ranked team in the South, Bethel will be ranked, and if Elmhurst winds up ranked if they can get to 7-3 with a win over North Central, then all of a sudden Chicago could be 8-1, 2-1 vs. RROs and that gets you selected.  Of course if they end up 8-1, 2-1 vs. RROs, they'd almost certainly jump TLU and get the other Pool B. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I took a look at how the geography would affect the matchups based on the current 32 teams... unless the NCAA decides to spring for some more flights it would end up with just one first round flight and a couple of rematches.

Chapman at Linfield (only flight)
Texas Lutheran at Mary Hardin-Baylor (only schools within 500 miles)
Huntingdon at Centre (only school within 500 miles of Huntingdon)
Husson at either W New England or Cortland St (only two schools within 500 miles of Husson)

As it stands, the Minnesota/Wisconsin area is tough... assuming the MIAC works itself out and only has one pool C team I came up with some possible matchups for that area
Concordia WI at UW-Whitewater
Carroll at Wartburg
St Scholastica at Bethel
UW-Platteville vs MIAC #2

Not going to bother trying to build a full bracket until the picture is clearer. Still plenty of football left and I'm sure several teams currently projected in will fall out by week 11. But there isn't much else to do mid-week.