Pool C -- 2014

[ExTartanPlayer]

Chicago could be the team that would benefit the most from Elmhurst sneaking into those final double-secret rankings.  Rhodes is win this Saturday away from probably being a ranked team in the South, Bethel will be ranked, and if Elmhurst winds up ranked if they can get to 7-3 with a win over North Central, then all of a sudden Chicago could be 8-1, 2-1 vs. RROs and that gets you selected.  Of course if they end up 8-1, 2-1 vs. RROs, they'd almost certainly jump TLU and get the other Pool B.

Flipping this back the other way, assuming Chicago wins out and gets to 8-1 (which is no certainty), that will benefit Bethel as well (either for seeding purposes as an AQ or as an 8-2 Pool C candidate).

9-1 Bethel with multiple results against RRO's including a W over regionally-ranked Chicago + 1-2 more W's against whoever else from the MIAC ends up ranked, and a lone loss against undefeated and RR Wartburg will have a strong enough resume for a pretty high seed, as far as one-loss teams go.

Meanwhile, if they lose a game, 8-2 Bethel's Pool C hopes would be greatly enhanced by Chicago finishing RR'd, giving them an extra W in that column for consideration.

[art76]

Wally - thanx for your insightful weekly probable play-off contenders.

FWIW - the MIAC is a toss-up right now. With four weeks of play left, there are five teams with one loss (though Bethel is undefeated in conference play). Those five teams could, in theory anyways, all beat each other up so that they all end up with 6 and 2 conference records at the end of the season, provided they beat the other teams in the league that are not part of this mix. It is just way too early to project who will take the MIAC and what the record of the second place team will be.

This week, Bethel and St. Thomas lock horns. If Bethel wins, the Tommies have two losses and their chances do not look all that promising for post-season play.

Hang on, it's going to be a wild ride in the MIAC this year!

[smedindy]

The scenario probably is that UMHB, Wesley, Mt. Union and UW-W are the "#1's" in their 'region' if they choose to do so. (I'm throwing Wesley to the East; Delaware Valley is a strong contender too with a good SOS, Hobart's SOS is weaker now, Johns Hopkins is higher than Hobart but they'd be 'moving' as well).

This means that the West will again be bloody again, as Wartburg or Linfield may not make the final 8 unless the committee becomes creative again. If Wheaton beats NC and Wabash wins out, the "North" will have three unbeatens as well. W & J is also looming - they can go three different ways (East, North, South).

A question is if THREE MIAC teams come in, with good SOS and geographically close, what will they do. St. John's, C-M, Bethel can easily get to Wartburg, Carroll, Concordia, St. Scholastica and UW-W.

If they'd only allow more first round travel...

[d-train]

Some folks are (rightful) very careful when hoping for creative bracketing.  Might easily end up with Linfield, UMHB, the SCIAC champ (Redlands/Chapman winner), and one more in a four-team grouping for the sake of flights.

[wally_wabash]

Talking about tournament regions in terms of North, South, East, and West is becoming very inaccurate and very dated...to the point that it's becoming a peeve of mine.  I made a post about this in the E8 forum to squelch the idea that Mount Union always gets "shipped East".  Oh wait- here it is:

I'm not sure North Central belongs on the same list as Linfield and Wesley.  Because they almost beat Mount Union that one time when Mount Union flatly refused to play any defense for the last three weeks of the tournament?  Nah.  Maybe if they were repeatedly getting knocked out by either Mount Union and Whitewater, but that's not the case- even though it seems like most people give them that kind of benefit of the doubt.  IMO, North Central is closer to the strata occupied by SJF than they are the strata occupied by Linfield and Wesley. 

Totally understood.
That tier is established.

Im just hoping that Fisher is the team that keeps UMU out of the East region this year!

It doesn't really work that way anymore.  If you look at the quadrant breakdown by region in the last three tournaments (Mount Union's quadrant is denoted by asterisk):
2013:
*Quad1-  3E, 2N, 3S
Quad2- 4N, 4W
Quad3- 1N, 3S, 4W
Quad4- 5E, 1N, 1S, 1W

2012:
Quad1-  2N, 6W
Quad2- 1E, 3N, 1S, 3W
Quad3- 3E, 2N, 3S
*Quad4- 4E, 1N, 3S

2011:
Quad1-  3E, 2N, 2S, 1W
Quad2- 3E, 1N, 1S, 3W
Quad3- 1E, 4S, 3W
*Quad4- 4N, 2S, 2W

So you can see that the regions don't really line up as geographically neat as they used to.  The committee has done a good job in the last few years of of mixing and matching pods to get reasonably balanced quadrants.  The idea that  Mount Union gets "shipped" into a region loaded with East teams is dated.

N/S/E/W just isn't the way they build this bracket anymore.  We shouldn't limit our thinking in that way. 

[smedindy]

Let's hope it continues. But still, to minimize flights, they need to 'pod' teams together in the first round. As you know, the difference between some W and N, or some N, S and E can be small enough to amalgamate the regions yet still keep flights down.

What I was trying to drive at is that we may have a first round game or two that are 'stacked' because of geography, and that's outside of the normal shenanigans that happen with the NWC, SCIAC and the Texas schools. So I probably fed into the regional thing unintentionally.

I think the perception that Mt. Union hops even now is because they are geographically close enough to do so. So is Wesley and Del Val. And there are plenty of schools that Wartburg or Whitewater can get to in round 1. For example, Wartburg is within 500 miles of Wabash. (I can't see that as a potential first round game now, but still...)

Of course we have to wait a while for this, but again IF three MIAC schools qualify to avoid first round rematches the hopping around will probably begin.

This is the fun part!

[d-train]

I can't see three in from one conference...only slight chance is if they are (rock-paper-scissors) co-champs with two Pool C candidates that have just the one loss each. 

[wally_wabash]

The four team pod thing is really, IMO, the right way to think about pairing teams together when and if people want to put together mock brackets (which I think is awesome...mock brackets and 4-team pods).  And it makes sense.  When you get down to regional finals, even if you were to put teams from the same geographic region all together as much as you could (paying no attention whatsoever to properly seeding the four best teams or otherwise trying to balance the regions), it's hard to guarantee no flights at that point.  So why trap yourself with the geographical boundaries when you're probably going to have to pay for a 2-3 flights in the quarterfinals anyway?  Joy Solomon's committees deserve credit for breaking that barrier. 

I think the larger point, and this is something that comes up somewhere every year either in the East forums or at some point on the ATN podcast or other places here and there, is that people desperately want the committee to pick the best team in the East region and make them a #1 seed.  The committee is under no such obligation.  That kind of thing is what leads to regions having 3 of the top 8 teams in it and we don't want that anymore.  We want some balance out there.  East region teams can earn a #1 seed by, let's say, not losing a game or two during the season.  That would be a good start.  More immediate and more likely to get an East region a #1 seed sometime in the near future is the free agent acquisition of Wesley.  But people also shouldn't be under the impression that that's going to immediately get teams like SJF or Hobart out from under Mount Union.  As long as you live within 500 miles of Alliance, that's always going to be a possibility. 

10-0 Wartburg and 10-0 Wabash wouldn't be a first round game, but it's not out of the question to see that as a potential second round game with those two in the same little pod.  You could also see a pod that has NCC go play at Wartburg in the second round (that would be more likely...similar to NCC's 2011 tournament placement).  Tons of possibilities and options when let ourselves ignore what geographic region teams are in. 

I can't see three in from one conference...only slight chance is if they are (rock-paper-scissors) co-champs with two Pool C candidates that have just the one loss each. 

Yep.  I know I selected 2 MIAC teams in Pool C this week, but honestly there is a (much) greater chance that the MIAC gets zero at-large bids than they get two of them.  Too much MIAC-on-MIAC violence to be done for more than one team to be alive in Pool C after week 11. 

[smedindy]

I'm interested to see the RR's of course, but the East RR's will be the most intriguing to see where things stack up, and if the E8's great SOS outweigh their cannibalization. Also, to see if their committee can finagle Framingham back into conversations again with their strong SOS, though they have lost a game.

The East seems to know how to get the deal done and get their teams in...

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'm interested to see the RR's of course, but the East RR's will be the most intriguing to see where things stack up, and if the E8's great SOS outweigh their cannibalization. Also, to see if their committee can finagle Framingham back into conversations again with their strong SOS, though they have lost a game.

The East seems to know how to get the deal done and get their teams in...

In a related story: if the MASCAC isn't getting a Pool A, and Framingham finishes 9-1 while Endicott runs the table and wins the NEFC (not a given, with games vs. undefeated MIT and WNEC), it would greatly help Framingham's Pool B/C case if Endicott squeaked into the East rankings (and if Rowan wins the NJAC, presumably also getting into the East rankings).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I did get a reply... it is being looked in to.

[smedindy]

Referred to a dreaded sub-committee....

[ADL70]

Alright, let's do this again.  This week we're going to roll with the SAA in Pool A, the MASCAC not, and an A/B/C breakdown of 25/2/5.  It's really close as to whether or not Pool B is one bid or two.  Hopefully we can find some clarity (drink!) soon. 

++k  Extra k for podcast reference

[wally_wabash]

Alright, let's do this again.  This week we're going to roll with the SAA in Pool A, the MASCAC not, and an A/B/C breakdown of 25/2/5.  It's really close as to whether or not Pool B is one bid or two.  Hopefully we can find some clarity (drink!) soon. 

++k  Extra k for podcast reference

Glad somebody picked up on that.  Otherwise it looks like I'm just shouting random nonsense.   

[art76]

Alright, let's do this again.  This week we're going to roll with the SAA in Pool A, the MASCAC not, and an A/B/C breakdown of 25/2/5.  It's really close as to whether or not Pool B is one bid or two.  Hopefully we can find some clarity (drink!) soon. 

++k  Extra k for podcast reference

Glad somebody picked up on that.  Otherwise it looks like I'm just shouting random nonsense.   

I grinned when I saw it...