Pool C -- 2014

[MonroviaCat]

Rankings are up

[Frank Rossi]

Rankings are up

I hope everyone enjoys kissing their sister.  There are three opportunities in these rankings... I won't pretend to understand how that happens in a set of opinion rankings...

[wally_wabash]

Projection coming...quick thoughts:

- TLU S#5.  Maybe a bit of a shock there, but keep in mind TLU (for now) has a nice SOS and Hardin-Simmons getting ranked (S#10) is HUGE for the Bulldogs. 
- Oshkosh in the rankings at W#8...right behind Platteville and just second in line in the West (counting the Platteville/Oshkosh winner together there. 

Good stuff.  Ok, projection coming soon.

[wally_wabash]

Projection with regional rankings and clarified bid breakdowns (24/2/6).  Here we go. 

Pool A:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	Wheaton
ECFC	Husson
E8	St. John Fisher
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Widener
MIAA	Trine
MIAC	Bethel
MWC	Illinois College
NACC	Lakeland
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	MIT
NJAC	Montclair State
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Chapman
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

-- Macalester threw the MWC into an anybody's guess situation and my guess this week is Illinois College. 
-- Benedictine kneecapped Concorida-Wis. last week which puts Lakeland on top of the NACC.  Lakeland hosts Concordia this weekend. 

Pool B:
Wesley (5-0, 0.675 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO) - I think Wesley had a shot at maybe being the #1 team in the South until Rowan and Salisbury lost a bunch of games.  1-0 vs. RRO is not as good as 3-0 vs. RRO.  Hot sports take. 

So, the other Pool B team.  The interesting thing here is that TLU and Centre are t5 in the South which doesn't help me one bit.  The candidates are:
E5 Framingham State (7-1, 0.528 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
9N Chicago (6-1, 0.523 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
5S TLU (6-1, 0.540 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
5S Centre (8-0, 0.436 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)

I'm selecting Texas Lutheran here as the only team on the board to have a quality win in addition to the best SOS.  I still have no idea whether or not the South RAC or the national committee would spit at 10-0 Centre if both teams win their final two games.  If it gets to that point, it'll be a first.  We've never had a committee have to make this exact choice before.  Framingham State lost their shot at an RRO win with Endicott's loss and I think that now kind of eliminates them from Pool B.  Without a quality win, I don't know that they could be selected in front of undefeated Centre or TLU with that RRO win (teetering on the edge there with Hardin Simmons at S10).  Interestingly, HSU has two tough games left with ETBU and LC and if they lose either of those games, it could be Rhodes just lingering out there in the fringe of these rankings that would provide boosts for both Centre (at TLU's expense) and Chicago.  Interesting intersections there. 

Pool C:

Round 1:
N2 John Carroll (8-0, 0-464 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
5S Centre (8-0, 0.436 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
1E Delaware Valley (0.532 SOS, 2-0 vs. RRO)
5W St. John's (7-1, 0.513 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)

-- Pretty easy choice here.  Delaware Valley is the highest ranked team on the board (not officially a criteria), they have the best SOS, and two quality wins.  Centre has the better win percentage, but there's no other meat on those bones. 

Round 2:
2N John Carroll (8-0, 0-464 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
5S Centre (8-0, 0.436 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5E Framingham State (7-1, 0.528 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5W St. John's (7-1, 0.513 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)

-- John Carroll is also very highly ranked (not likely to change with a loss to Mount Union if it comes to that...I think they're still the first team up in the North even with that loss) they have the quality win over Heidelberg.  The SOS isn't there, but when you rub elbows with Mount Union that sort of thing doesn't seem to matter as much. 

Round 3:
5N Wittenberg (7-0, 0.498 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5S Centre (8-0, 0.436 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5E Framingham State (7-1, 0.528 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5W St. John's (7-1, 0.513 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)

-- The Johnnies don't have the same SOS edge over Centre as Del Val did, but they still have the quality win and they play in a league that has massive clout (also not a criteria). 

Now it gets fun.

Round 4:
5N Wittenberg (7-0, 0.498 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5S Centre (8-0, 0.436 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
5E Framingham State (7-1, 0.528 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
7W UW-Platteville (6-2, 0.543 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- So Centre is the last team that's been on the board from the start.  Platteville has the superior SOS and they've played two ranked teams, both losses that weren't necessarily terrible (in the sense that TLU/UMHB or Chicago/Bethel were terrible).  Witt hasn't lost, but will if they stay in this pool.  Oh how Framingham wishes that Endicott had beaten MIT.  Centre is my pick based on the undefeated record and assuming they've built up balloting capital to this point (which is a real thing, even though it should disgust us all). 

Round 5:
5N Wittenberg (7-0, 0.498 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
7S Muhlenberg (7-1, 0.491 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
5E Framingham State (7-1, 0.528 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
7W UW-Platteville (6-2, 0.543 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Framingham will have built up a lot of capital to this point, but if we're playing this out, Witt is going to get a big SOS boost this week from Wabash and if they lose (which is how they end up here in the first place) they'll have a regionally ranked result.  Which Framingham doesn't.  So I'll take the Tigers here.  But you can make a case for Framingham or Platteville in this spot.  And that's doomsday for Platteville because...

Round 6:
6N  North Central (6-2, 0.551 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
7S Muhlenberg (7-1, 0.491 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
5E Framingham State (7-1, 0.528 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
7W UW-Platteville (6-2, 0.543 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- So Platteville is out because with this board there's no way Platteville can be taken ahead of North Central (h2h).  I think we can eliminate Muhlenberg as well with the low(er) SOS and no quality results (42-26 vs. Hopkins isn't particularly useful to them here).  Framingham State has now been in play for four rounds.  That really matters (it shouldn't).  North Central has a cozy 28-7 win over ranked Platteville, and their loss is by a field goal at the horn to 3N Wheaton.  Is their loss at Stevens Point (unranked) a bigger blemish than Framingham's loss at home Rowan (31-21...31-13 late in the 4th)?  I say no.  North Central is the pick, but this is razor thin.  You could go either way with this last pick. 

Interestingly, I think I'd be inclined to take Platteville in that last round were it not for the presence of North Central.  But once North Central is at the same table as Platteville, Platteville is second banana.  There's just no reasonable way around that. 

Next up out of the North would have been Heidelberg which means Chicago doesn't even get a sniff in Pool C.  Their best chance is going to be for Hardin-Simmons to lose, and for Rhodes to get ranked, although I think there's some more help needed there (E&H and Guilford linger around out there in unranked limbo with one loss in the South). 

[Ralph Turner]

MIT should be in line to get the Pool A bid from the NEFC. (Am I not correct?)

My first run at the rankings has these picks. (Assume the higher ranked team will prevail for the rest of the season.)

Pool B:
Wesley (S#2)
Framingham State (E#5)

Pool C:
John Carroll (N#1)
Widener (E#3)
Texas Lutheran (S#T5)  Better SOS in the South Region
UW-P or UW-O winner (W#7 / W#8)

On the table for the last 2 picks:

St Lawrence (E#6)
Wittenberg (N#5) even after a close loss to Wabash
Centre (S#T5)
St John (W#T5)

(and Wally has just posted his, too.)

[Schwami]

But wally you can't have 3 teams from the North, no?  I agree that you can't take Platteville with North Central on the board, so it would seem that Framingham State gets the last spot.

[Frank Rossi]

Wally, in Pool C, you're using the wrong SOS for Centre, I believe (0.464 instead of 0.436).  This may matter since the difference between their SOS and Framingham State's would be close to 0.100 and could create chaos in the 4th and 5th picks below.  Just flagging that in case you feel it would cause a change.  Otherwise, great work as always.

Also, Schwami, there was a correction made about the three C teams in a region last year after our interview was conducted with the Committee Chairman.  The point was that it would be extremely tough based on the way the anonymous ordinal system used to pick the teams can work, but it is not impossible.

- Frank

[wally_wabash]

Wally, in Pool C, you're using the wrong SOS for Centre, I believe (0.464 instead of 0.436).  This may matter since the difference between their SOS and Framingham State's would be close to 0.100 and could create chaos in the 4th and 5th picks below.  Just flagging that in case you feel it would cause a change.  Otherwise, great work as always.

Also, Schwami, there was a correction made about the three C teams in a region last year after our interview was conducted with the Committee Chairman.  The point was that it would be extremely tough based on the way the anonymous ordinal system used to pick the teams can work, but it is not impossible.

- Frank

Yep, had the wrong SOS there.  I blame copy and paste.     Really in Centre's case, at least in my view tonight, the SOS is bad and the degree to which it is bad is almost irrelevant.  The question with them becomes whether or not the committee would leave a 10-0 team out there in the wind for the duration of the process.  I don't think they would.  Between being 10-0 and the voting capital that accumulates, I just don't think they can sit there unselected for more than four rounds.  They are an intriguing case for sure. 

But wally you can't have 3 teams from the North, no?  I agree that you can't take Platteville with North Central on the board, so it would seem that Framingham State gets the last spot.

I think the qualifier last year was that there were only five bids available.  I'm not going to let that go from last year for a long time because it was an incredibly dumb thing for the chair to say, but this year with the extra bid it's a little bit different.  That said, in my mock selection here, Framingham is on the board for an awfully long time and it's not at all unreasonable for them to get selected in that sixth round instead of North Central who just showed up to the party. 

[Schwami]

Frank, thanks for the clarification --- I had forgotten about that later explanation 

The anonymous ordinal system would still work to Framingham's benefit as wally notes.  Perhaps not enough though.

[USee]

this stuff is awesome to contemplate. Thanks Wally for doing the heavy lifting so we can all pontificate the outcomes. It's going to be a fascinating couple of weeks.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's my latest bracket based on Wally's projections


Texas Lutheran @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor (only schools within 500 miles of each other)
Chapman @ Linfield (west coast orphans)

Montclair St @ (2) Hobart
Husson @ MIT (Husson can only get to MIT or Montclair)

----

Lakeland @ (1) UW-Whitewater
North Central @ St John's

Illinois College @ (2) Wartburg
St Scholastica @ Bethel

----

Trine @ (1) Mount Union
Wittenberg @ Wheaton

Franklin @ (2) Wabash
John Carroll @ Centre

----

Christopher Newport @ (1) Wesley
Widener @ Washington & Jefferson

Hampden-Sydney @ (2) Johns Hopkins
St John Fisher @ Delaware Valley


Quadrant 1 is the orphan bracket... with Linfield losing the "seeding" is a lot more normal. Ideally Husson would end up at Hobart but that's not in range. So either MIT or Montclair St gets a tough game on the road while the other hosts Husson. Based on regional rankings MIT gets Husson.

Quadrant 2 is the MN-WI bracket... not a lot to discuss here. Perhaps an argument for NCC hosting but I doubt it as of the current results.

Quadrant 3 is the IL-IN-OH bracket. Keeping John Carroll away from Mount Union means they're either a 3 or a 6 seed. I could see them hosting Centre rather than on the road.

Quadrant 4 is the South-East bracket. With DelVal being ahead of Widener in the regional rankings I swapped them compared to the last projection. SJF is rough as a 6 here... but with DelVal being a 2 or 3 that forces Widener to a 4 or 5. That means W&J or SJF has to play at DelVal.


Are there any glaring errors I've missed?

[wabndy]

3 Cs out of 5 (what we had last year) is a lot different than 3 out of 6. Taking last year, the committee was apparently hard pressed to pick a 3rd team from the same region while another region still has its first on the board. With 6 pool Cs (thanks SAA, Mascac!) there is a little more honey to spread around.

[wally_wabash]

3 Cs out of 5 (what we had last year) is a lot different than 3 out of 6. Taking last year, the committee was apparently hard pressed to pick a 3rd team from the same region while another region still has its first on the board. With 6 pool Cs (thanks SAA, Mascac!) there is a little more honey to spread around.

This is probably making the point better than I did.  Had there been a sixth C bid last year, it was going to be Wabash's without question. 

[art76]

Here's my latest bracket based on Wally's projections


Texas Lutheran @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor (only schools within 500 miles of each other)
Chapman @ Linfield (west coast orphans)

Montclair St @ (2) Hobart
Husson @ MIT (Husson can only get to MIT or Montclair)

----

Lakeland @ (1) UW-Whitewater
North Central @ St John's

Illinois College @ (2) Wartburg
St Scholastica @ Bethel

----

Trine @ (1) Mount Union
Wittenberg @ Wheaton

Franklin @ (2) Wabash
John Carroll @ Centre

----

Christopher Newport @ (1) Wesley
Widener @ Washington & Jefferson

Hampden-Sydney @ (2) Johns Hopkins
St John Fisher @ Delaware Valley


Quadrant 1 is the orphan bracket... with Linfield losing the "seeding" is a lot more normal. Ideally Husson would end up at Hobart but that's not in range. So either MIT or Montclair St gets a tough game on the road while the other hosts Husson. Based on regional rankings MIT gets Husson.

Quadrant 2 is the MN-WI bracket... not a lot to discuss here. Perhaps an argument for NCC hosting but I doubt it as of the current results.

Quadrant 3 is the IL-IN-OH bracket. Keeping John Carroll away from Mount Union means they're either a 3 or a 6 seed. I could see them hosting Centre rather than on the road.

Quadrant 4 is the South-East bracket. With DelVal being ahead of Widener in the regional rankings I swapped them compared to the last projection. SJF is rough as a 6 here... but with DelVal being a 2 or 3 that forces Widener to a 4 or 5. That means W&J or SJF has to play at DelVal.


Are there any glaring errors I've missed?

Not an error - but another option: if Macalester were to take the MWC instead of Illinois College, then you could send them to play Bethel while St. Scholastica goes to Wartburg to avoid a repeat of last year's opening round (that was in the metro-dome.)

[USee]

Also, I don't see JCU with one loss being a 3 seed at the expense of undefeated Wheaton as a 4 seed. The committee avoids first round matchups, second round not so much. I think Wheaton is the 3 and faces Bash in round 2 in your bracket.

That said in 2010 with NCC and Wheaton both in the field the committee sent Wheaton into a bracket with Coe/Bethel/St Thomas/Wartburg and NCC into a bracket with UWW/ONU/Franklin. Then in 2012 they sent Elmhurst into the St Thomas bracket and NCC into the Linfield bracket. All this to say the location of Wheaton/NCC gives the committee flexibility to fit them in different brackets.