Pool C -- 2014

[Tekken]

How much do you see TLU's SOS moving over the next two weeks based solely on Southwestern?  It looks like they are 3rd worst strength of schedule nationally.  TLU still has to play them once, so that will give their opponent's SoS a hit.  TLU's other game is against Austin College.  It just so happens that Austin College played Southwestern twice this year.  Presumably that would lowever TLU's opponent's opponent's SoS a hit as well, no?

[USee]

I think NCC has to block UWP if they get to the table at the same time. I can totally see taking Framingham instead of the Cards in that scenario. That's the kind of stuff we usually talk about on Monday after selection Sunday. Cool we can get to it w 2 games to play, however it's unlikely that will happen. In the West St Johns or Bethel will have 2 losses. If its St Johns it moves all of Wally's picks up and creates some completely different scenarios including two 2 loss teams being picked?

[ITH radio]

Hope Wally's right re HOB.

Seemed a 2 east ranking indicated they didn't view the Statesmen in top 8 and would end up as a 3-4 seed in whichever bracket they land in.

Mont and MIT would be a nice if not lucky draw for them IMO

[K-Mack]

Re: the FCgriz bracket, one thing the committee has done a nice job of the past few seasons is mixing the pods up. So conferences that get two teams in like the CCIW and E8 in previous seasons, aren't necessarily staring at a Round 2 rematch.

Doesn't look like there's any way to avoid the Texas game or the West Coast Game this year. Unless maybe If Redlands bumps Chapman into C.

IIRC, this would be the first year Bs that spill over into C get selected.

Lots can change of course.

[K-Mack]

Also, MIT or Husson being guaranteed a spot in Round 2? I almost think they'd find a way to send Husson to Montclair, but then MIT kinda gets jobbed by having to go to Hobart.

Curious about St. Lawrence too. Or Morrisville State. Those would change the geography.

[D3MAFAN]

Also, MIT or Husson being guaranteed a spot in Round 2? I almost think they'd find a way to send Husson to Montclair, but then MIT kinda gets jobbed by having to go to Hobart.

Curious about St. Lawrence too. Or Morrisville State. Those would change the geography.

Keith,

Do you think there are going to be any trips like it was a couple year's ago with NCC going to Cal Lu, HS-C to Linfield and Linfield to Wesley? It would be nice to see that again

[K-Mack]

Also, MIT or Husson being guaranteed a spot in Round 2? I almost think they'd find a way to send Husson to Montclair, but then MIT kinda gets jobbed by having to go to Hobart.

Curious about St. Lawrence too. Or Morrisville State. Those would change the geography.

Keith,

Do you think there are going to be any trips like it was a couple year's ago with NCC going to Cal Lu, HS-C to Linfield and Linfield to Wesley? It would be nice to see that again

Rounds 2 and 3 often feature some pretty weird matchups and significant travel. There's only so much the committee can do to control it. Eventually Salisbury has to go to Whitewater or Fisher to UMHB or Hobart to St. Thomas.

As things stand, it looks pretty unlikely that we'll get any oddities in Round 1. With the two NWC teams the past few years, you had to do something with SCIAC. This time you probably set them up with NWC. I guess even if Pacific wins, Chapman can't host by virtue of its loss to Linfield.

[ITH radio]

Also, MIT or Husson being guaranteed a spot in Round 2? I almost think they'd find a way to send Husson to Montclair, but then MIT kinda gets jobbed by having to go to Hobart.

Curious about St. Lawrence too. Or Morrisville State. Those would change the geography.

I think you're probably right re the above. A 2nd rd game of Montclair vs. Hobart seems more "fair" than MIT or Husson advancing, but you never know. I suppose Hobart could be placed in a bracket and end up hosting a Wittenburg or something, then have to travel (if they won) to a JCU.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Also, MIT or Husson being guaranteed a spot in Round 2? I almost think they'd find a way to send Husson to Montclair, but then MIT kinda gets jobbed by having to go to Hobart.

Curious about St. Lawrence too. Or Morrisville State. Those would change the geography.

The thing is, MIT is ranked ahead of Montclair in the regional rankings. Now if Montclair were to jump MIT then certainly I could see Husson to Montclair.

[art76]

Here's how I would put the bracket together with the teams that Wally has selected:

Region 1

1. Whitewater
8. Lakeland

4. Wheaton
5. St. John's

3. Bethel
7. Trine

2. Wartburg
6. St. Scholastica

Region 2

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor
8. Texas Lutheran

4. St. John Fisher
5. Washington and Jefferson

3. Linfield
6. Chapman

2. Johns Hopkins
7. Centre

Region 3

1. Mount Union
6. Montclair State

4. Wittenburg
5. North Central

3. Wabash
7. Franklin

2. John Carroll
8. Illinois College

Region 4

1. Wesley
7. Christopher Newport

6. MIT
8. Husson

3. Widener
5. Hampden-Sidney

2. Hobart
4. Delaware Valley

Lower numbers host. Region 1 would host Region 4 and Region 2 would host Region 3 when it gets down to that point. I have not verified all the 500 mile rule possibilities, but I think I'm ok on that front. I think I have no same conference match-ups in the first round. I did use D3's top 25 to rank all the teams that received votes for ranking the teams 1 through 7 – two 7 and all four 8 seeds are "equal" after that and mileage kicked in for where to place them in the remaining 6 spots.

Feel free to comment.

[jknezek]

Centre to Johns Hopkins is 574 miles. that won't work.

Wesley and CNU is a rematch, probably not going to happen since it doesn't need to happen for mileage reasons.

[ITH radio]

I don't see Widener and DVC in the same bracket since the NCAA seems to avoid regular season match ups repeated in the playoffs.

Maybe swap Wash & Jeff w/ DVC? The Presidents are w/i the 500 mile zone from HOB.

RE MONT - they could jump MIT due to SOS bump after playing Mo State. Don't think there's anyone left on MIT's sked that will afford the same boost. If HOB beats SLU, they'll drop down to around 9 or 10 so Mont should move up.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Centre to Johns Hopkins is 574 miles. that won't work.

Wesley and CNU is a rematch, probably not going to happen since it doesn't need to happen for mileage reasons.

Trine to Bethel is 579 miles
Illinois College to John Carroll is 565 miles.

[wabndy]

Before we sharpen our pencils too much trying to figure out who might travel to where, keep this list in mind.  Here are the games still to be played between now regionally ranked opponents:
E1 Delaware Vallet @ E3 Widener - Week 11
E2 Hobart @ E6 St. Lawrence - Week 10
E10 Ithaca @ E4 St. John Fisher - Week 10
N2 John Carroll @ N1 Mount Union - Week 11
N3 Wabash @ N5 Wittenberg - Week 10
W3 Bethel @ W5 St. Johns - Week 10
W8 UW-Oshkosh @ W7 UW-Platteville - Week 11
W10 Pacific @ W4 Linfield - Week 11

[ExTartanPlayer]

Before we sharpen our pencils too much trying to figure out who might travel to where, keep this list in mind.  Here are the games still to be played between now regionally ranked opponents:
E1 Delaware Vallet @ E3 Widener - Week 11
E2 Hobart @ E6 St. Lawrence - Week 10
E10 Ithaca @ E4 St. John Fisher - Week 10
N2 John Carroll @ N1 Mount Union - Week 11
N3 Wabash @ N5 Wittenberg - Week 10
W3 Bethel @ W5 St. Johns - Week 10
W8 UW-Oshkosh @ W7 UW-Platteville - Week 11
W10 Pacific @ W4 Linfield - Week 11

Wholeheartedly agree.

I have always viewed Wally's Pool C projection exercise as a fascinating study that helps us being up a few hypotheticals (for example, the likelihood that toward the end of the Pool C process both NCC and UWP will be on the board and that it's pretty much unthinkable that a committee could choose UWP over NCC if that's the final slot available for discussion).  I think trying to actually piece together the bracket makes my head hurt...although it also allows consideration of hypotheticals like who can travel to where and helps figure out who might host.