Pool C -- 2014

[K-Mack]

Makes sense KM.

The Committee chair admitted to us in our interview last season they take a top 8, take 1&2 in each bracket and then build from there. Seedings are used, just not published since the 500 mile rule may necessitate non-traditional (3v6, 4v5 etc) matchups.

Honestly, that's a poor reason to not publish seedings.  We're savvy enough to understand the travel constraints in the first round. 

Given a choice between seeing seedings or the post-Week 11 rankings though, gimme the rankings all day.  I want to see those so bad and there's no good reason whatsoever to keep those secret.

Agree. I think the only good reason would be to protect the identity of a school that forgot to apply to host, and even then there's no real need to prevent transparency. These are definitely facts that we all can accept and deal with. The secrecy makes seeds a bigger deal than they would be if released.

[wesleydad]

Great work and read by all you guys.  I just keep wondering what happens to Wesley and the projected 1 seed if they Lose to UNC-Charlotte in 2 weeks.  I know it is not supposed to matter and I hope it doesn't, but you never know.  The bracket projections are great to read.  Seeing who has to beat who to move on is fun.  Thanks again to all of you who are partaking in this madness.

[K-Mack]

It's an odd game to take into consideration because what does it tell us about Wesley's standing against the other teams in the D-III playoffs? Nothing, unless they win. It looks better to have your seeds all be unbeaten but a loss there should not (although it may) change anything.

[Frank Rossi]

Makes sense KM.

The Committee chair admitted to us in our interview last season they take a top 8, take 1&2 in each bracket and then build from there. Seedings are used, just not published since the 500 mile rule may necessitate non-traditional (3v6, 4v5 etc) matchups.

I disagree with the prior statement from KMack in the present bracketing.  The wording in the Manual has seemed to change to forcing a "clustering" of teams by geography, and the only way to create balance in brackets after clustering is to heed the 500-mile rule.  It seems to be a more strict set of sentences than what I previously remember.  The 2011 budget-busting bracketing may have forced more Round 2 and Round 3 flight awareness.

[wally_wabash]

I did one just for fun.  Here's my bracket:

Lakeland @ UW-Whitewater
North Central @ St. John's

Delaware Valley @ Johns Hopkins
Centre @ Wabash

Texas Lutheran @ UMHB
Chapman @ Linfield

Wittenberg @ Wheaton
St. Scholastica @ Wartburg


Trine @ Mount Union
MIT @ St. John Fisher

John Carroll @ Hobart
Hampden-Sydney @ Widener

Christopher Newport @ Wesley
Husson @ Montclair State

Franklin @ W&J
Illinois College @ Bethel


A few things that make this probably not even close to what would happen in reality:
- I'm working that 500 mile limit hard here...lot of long trips in this one
- I'm not psyched about the OAC teams in the same quadrant, but I was stuck with the OAC teams together or the MAC teams together and, frankly, I'm wiped out and I'm done trying to rework it.   
- I've got a lot of potential second round flights here (although just one guaranteed I think).  My guess is that the committee will put together groups of four that guarantee a limit on flights in the second weekend.  Although now that I look at it again, I think this bracket is likely to only produce two extra flights (in addition to the West/Texas pod) in the second round.  So maybe it's not that bad really.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Here are a couple of tidbits for you guys to have in the back of your minds:

- 600 miles as a distance instead of 500 has been brought up by ice hockey, but apparently hasn't gotten much off the table. With regional games criteria having gone from 200 to 500 miles, the chances that 500 will go to 600 for tournament travel now seems a bit silly. Also, while 600 miles on a bus these days is far easier than it was even five or ten years ago (buses these days are pretty impressive), it is still a 8-10 hour trip and that is hard to justify.

- In football, they charter flights. There are too many tickets to be able to that many people on commercial flights (also, one of the reasons one plan to cut down in terms of the championship budget is to put in place a three-day grace period between bracket announcements and the first game - doesn't affect football; affects sports like lacrosse, baseball, even basketball to some extent). Charter flights are getting more and more expensive, so the idea of having an extra flight in any round should be taken out of everyone's minds. Also, the liaisons tend to look at all of the scenarios and have been known to go back to committees (in all sports) and have them change items here and there to reduce the risk of extra flights. This doesn't mean the right number of upsets in the right part of the brackets involving the right teams doesn't force more flights... but bet on the fact that it has to be an absolute necessity to get an "extra" flight out of any budget these days.

[ITH radio]

Interested in all these projections that have HOB as effectively a 2 seed when it appears the ERC put them below a "Top 8". I know the Statesmen will get a bump if they can beat SLU for a RRO and it should help their SoS, but it sure felt like the Comm has a different view on HOB than maybe the rest, or some of us, do.

[jknezek]

Interested in all these projections that have HOB as effectively a 2 seed when it appears the ERC put them below a "Top 8". I know the Statesmen will get a bump if they can beat SLU for a RRO and it should help their SoS, but it sure felt like the Comm has a different view on HOB than maybe the rest, or some of us, do.

It might be a familiarity breeds complacency problem. Hobart has done what Hobart has done the last few years, so the committee is probably confident they know the "national quality" of the team. Whereas with a few other teams undefeated you have these shiny new toys that they don't know the ceiling quite as well. That makes those other teams a little more exciting mentally perhaps...

[thewaterboy]

Saying this here since I don't know where else to bring it up: Southern Virginia counts as a D3 opponent. Wesleys SOS takes a little bit of a shot. Does this factor into seedings with Wesley, Wartburg and perhaps Bethel?

[wally_wabash]

Interested in all these projections that have HOB as effectively a 2 seed when it appears the ERC put them below a "Top 8". I know the Statesmen will get a bump if they can beat SLU for a RRO and it should help their SoS, but it sure felt like the Comm has a different view on HOB than maybe the rest, or some of us, do.

Like the NCAA, I don't officially seed the teams but I think in my mock bracket Hobart plays like a 3 seed.

[ITH radio]

k+ WW

[Pat Coleman]

Makes sense KM.

The Committee chair admitted to us in our interview last season they take a top 8, take 1&2 in each bracket and then build from there. Seedings are used, just not published since the 500 mile rule may necessitate non-traditional (3v6, 4v5 etc) matchups.

I disagree with the prior statement from KMack in the present bracketing.  The wording in the Manual has seemed to change to forcing a "clustering" of teams by geography, and the only way to create balance in brackets after clustering is to heed the 500-mile rule.  It seems to be a more strict set of sentences than what I previously remember.  The 2011 budget-busting bracketing may have forced more Round 2 and Round 3 flight awareness.

Also, Dave McHugh's #WhyD3 Show interview with Dan Dutcher, the NCAA's VP for D-III, talks about budgeting and playoff travel in much more clear terms than a paragraph in the manual:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8Y1WD-C7NQ

[wally_wabash]

Saying this here since I don't know where else to bring it up: Southern Virginia counts as a D3 opponent. Wesleys SOS takes a little bit of a shot. Does this factor into seedings with Wesley, Wartburg and perhaps Bethel?

This is interesting because I've been thinking about this as well and Wesley might not be locked in to a #1 seed like we've thought.  Adding in the SoVirginia game does ding Wesley's SOS.  It goes from ridiculously beastly to just beastly.  They're fine on the SOS front.  Where Wesley stops being fine is that Rowan, Salisbury, and Louisiana College have gone on to post decidedly pedestrian seasons.  What could have been a 5-0 vs. D3 with a beastly SOS and as much as 3-0 vs. RRO is going to wind up as 5-0 vs. D3 with a beastly SOS and 1-0 vs. RRO.  Now, if they beat UNCC in Week 11, they win.  #1 seed, hands down, no argument.  If they don't though, here are some things to consider:

Wartburg - 8-0, .583 SOS (actually better than Wesley's currently, but that'll change), 1-0 vs. RRO with that one being what might be the MIAC champion and current West #3 Bethel.  And a beatemdown at that.  Very impressive. 

Delaware Valley - Sitting at 8-0 currently and ranked #1 in the east (in spite of my projecting Widener to win the MAC), could get to 10-0 with a respectable SOS and- check this out- 3-0 vs. RRO (Montclair State, Lycoming, Widener).  That's seriously heady stuff there. 

I think those two teams would both be in play for a #1 seed, along with Wesley, if Wesley loses to UNCC. 

[smedindy]

With the discussion above, would they cluster Wartburg and UWW as #1 seeds since they could easily be a 3rd round matchup without a flight?

Are we going to come to this?


/O'Bannoned....;

[Ron Boerger]

I wonder how much favorable impact the plummeting price of oil will have on the cost of these charters.   One hopes the operators will pass some of the savings on to the AA.   Given the push to cut the division's budget, the result 20% lower prices could have a decent impact, assuming oil stays down.