Pool C -- 2014

[Frank Rossi]

I think SJF may be the best two-loss team. The West also may be hedging and can bump Oshkosh up if they win Saturday...

If Cortland beats Ithaca in Cortaca and Morrisville ends up ranked, then does that make St. Lawrence the best two-loss team?  Granted, SLU's SOS will nosedive a bit after the USMMA game.

[Frank Rossi]

Now, I don't think Centre is screwed UNLESS "B" takes Framingham and not TLU.

A cynic could see this as a way to make sure the South gets two into "C", maybe. The committee would definitely see an undefeated team lurking behind Muhlenberg.

But...would Muhlenberg be taken after MTU / JCU, Del Val, Widener and Wabash, against Framingham and Bethel or a WIAC team?

And whither Oshkosh, Bethel, Platteville? Wow.

Im a MASCAC guy so I'm rooting for Framingham St, but these rankings seem to suggest Framingham is getting the 2nd Pool B, and not undefeated Centre. I just can't see the committee leaving an undefeated team out of the tournament. The last time a Pool B was undefeated in the Northeast, a very weak Suny-Maritime team was given the 3 seed in the regional rankings and promptly lost by 60 in the first round.

Whats even more interesting looking at these rankings from an east perspective is this. If Del Val goes out and beats Widener, Framingham is positioned to be #3 in the regional rankings and probably the first east team off the board for Pool C. Everyone has been assuming that the Del Val vs Widener loser would be an automatic Pool C winner. These rankings, especially from a Widener view, make that look a lot more riskier now.

I think you forgot about Texas Lutheran for the second Pool B bid?

[hazzben]

Bethel behind Platteville is a significant development. That puts North Central in the drivers seat for 2 Loss teams unless Platteville is off the board before NCC shows up. That would require Wabash or JCU/Mt U loser to go after UWP, which isn't happening. So likely NCC and Platteville are on the board at the same time and Bethel is hosed. WOW.

Yeah, Bethel is in a world of hurt right now. It seems set up for the UWP/UWO winner to be in front of them.

Take aways if you're Bethel.

1. Don't lose two games and put your fate in someone else's hands
2. If you do lose two road games to RRO, make sure they're close losses (unless they're to NCC or UWW at home  )
3. Maybe the biggest take away, and it pains me to say it...don't schedule tough non-con games if you play in a top 4 conference. The gauntlet that is the MIAC makes it really worthless to schedule a tough non-con and risk a loss if SOS and especially RRO aren't significant. 2-2 v. RRO is < 0-2 

Notes:
Bethel should be higher than Platteville because it has a win against a regionally ranked team. Figuring matchups here will be more influenced by geography than seeding.

Any chance the committee reads D3football.com's reactions  Ouch, but, we left it in their hands. 

[MonroviaCat]

Yeah--I don't see how they can justify Platteville over Bethel....equal record but Bethel with the much better SOS and the win over RRO.....  I think if you switched those two teams it would be about right.....

[Boxer7806]

Now, I don't think Centre is screwed UNLESS "B" takes Framingham and not TLU.

A cynic could see this as a way to make sure the South gets two into "C", maybe. The committee would definitely see an undefeated team lurking behind Muhlenberg.

But...would Muhlenberg be taken after MTU / JCU, Del Val, Widener and Wabash, against Framingham and Bethel or a WIAC team?

And whither Oshkosh, Bethel, Platteville? Wow.

Im a MASCAC guy so I'm rooting for Framingham St, but these rankings seem to suggest Framingham is getting the 2nd Pool B, and not undefeated Centre. I just can't see the committee leaving an undefeated team out of the tournament. The last time a Pool B was undefeated in the Northeast, a very weak Suny-Maritime team was given the 3 seed in the regional rankings and promptly lost by 60 in the first round.

Whats even more interesting looking at these rankings from an east perspective is this. If Del Val goes out and beats Widener, Framingham is positioned to be #3 in the regional rankings and probably the first east team off the board for Pool C. Everyone has been assuming that the Del Val vs Widener loser would be an automatic Pool C winner. These rankings, especially from a Widener view, make that look a lot more riskier now.

I think you forgot about Texas Lutheran for the second Pool B bid?

You're right Frank. I did. Just shocking to me that their are two teams with a blemished record that seem to be in front of an undefeated team for that Pool B slot, especially how undefeated teams of the past seem to get fairly high regional rankings. If Centre doesn't get the Pool B, they have no shot for a Pool C according to these rankings.

[smedindy]

3. Maybe the biggest take away, and it pains me to say it...don't schedule tough non-con games if you play in a top 4 conference. The gauntlet that is the MIAC makes it really worthless to schedule a tough non-con and risk a loss if SOS and especially RRO aren't significant. 2-2 v. RRO is < 0-2 

If you follow #3 you could screw yourself with a different committee who WANTS you to schedule those games. Don't play with fire and schedule hacks and frauds.

[hazzben]

3. Maybe the biggest take away, and it pains me to say it...don't schedule tough non-con games if you play in a top 4 conference. The gauntlet that is the MIAC makes it really worthless to schedule a tough non-con and risk a loss if SOS and especially RRO aren't significant. 2-2 v. RRO is < 0-2 

If you follow #3 you could screw yourself with a different committee who WANTS you to schedule those games. Don't play with fire and schedule hacks and frauds.

We wouldn't be screwing ourselves at all. You're telling me a one loss MIAC team is staying home...doubtful.

[art76]

Look, let's make this fair for everyone. Shorten the season by three weeks and make the play-offs just three weeks longer and you'd have room for 256 teams in the play-offs.   

[kiko]

Bethel behind Platteville is a significant development. That puts North Central in the drivers seat for 2 Loss teams unless Platteville is off the board before NCC shows up. That would require Wabash or JCU/Mt U loser to go after UWP, which isn't happening. So likely NCC and Platteville are on the board at the same time and Bethel is hosed. WOW.

This of course only helps North Central if Platteville beats Oshkosh on Saturday.  If Platteville is off the board -- or not yet on the board -- then the Cardinals would not have that H2H chit against whomever they are compared.

[wally_wabash]

Last projection here where the NCAA opens up the kimono.  After today, it's all a secret.  Let's get started.

Pool A (24 bids):

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	Wheaton
ECFC	Husson
E8	Ithaca
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Widener
MIAA	Trine
MIAC	St. John's
MWC	Illinois College
NACC	Lakeland
NCAC	Wittenberg
NEFC	MIT
NJAC	Rowan/Morrisville State
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Chapman
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

-- note that clnched bids are in bold
-- note that teams new to the projection this week are in italics

• 14 total bids have been clinched
• Ithaca and Wittenberg pulled off minor upsets to earn bids to the tournament
• Montclair State getting upended also takes them out of the field and puts in, well I'm not sure.  I'm reading probably Rowan, the ATN podcast is using prior NJAC tiebreak precedent to postulate that it might be Mo. State.  I'm pretty sure it's one or the other.  If we get confirmation that Rowan is a win-and-in situation on Friday, I'll amend the NJAC projection to have just Rowan. 

Pool B (2 bids):

Wesley (5-0, 2-0 vs. RRO, 0.605 SOS) - I said I wasn't going to talk about Wesley anymore because this is locked up, but it is worth noting that Wesley jumped UMHB in the South rankings (why? my guess is that Rowan being ranked makes the difference) which doesn't impact selection, but could impact whether or not Wesley hosts a semifinal.  I still think Wesley and UMHB are most likely on the road to UWW and UMU if the top seeds hold, but that flip-flop was interesting. 

The other Pool B bid...the players are:

• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Texas Lutheran (7-1, 0.544 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• 9N Chicago (7-1, 0.498 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)

-- First, whither Centre?  The South RAC has decided that Centre isn't as good as TLU, so I don't think we can really lump in to this group tonight.  Chicago doesn't have a quality win and their RRO "result" wasn't great (and got a smidge worse with Bethel's second loss).  So the Maroons are out.  TLU has the SOS advantage, plus they have a RRO win (10s Hardin-Simmons) to go along with their RRO loss to UMHB.  Framingham State now has an RRO result, but unfortunately it's a loss to E9 Rowan.  The way this board lays out, I think TLU is really the only choice.  Less easy to decipher is the case between TLU and Centre, but again, the South RAC made that choice for us. 

Pool C (6 bids):
Round 1:

• 2N John Carroll (9-0, 0.470 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 1E Delaware Valley (9-0, 0.482 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Ok, a couple of real surprises here.  First Del Val staying 1 in the East despite losing their two RRO wins.  That takes so much shine off of that profile.  Also, UW-P being ranked ahead of Bethel despite having really no real profile advantage over the Royals.  But this is what we've got to work with, so work we will.  As the only team on this board with a win against a ranked opponent (I have no earthly idea how that can happen), John Carroll is the pick. 

Round 2:

• 5N Wabash (8-1, 0.512 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 1E Delaware Valley (9-0, 0.482 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- This one is tough because the same logic that I used to pick JCU ought to lead me to pick Wabash here.  But Wabash does the loss whereas DelVal doesn't, and while it isn't stated criteria, I'm not sure I can assume a scenario where the #1 ranked East team doesn't go off before the #5 ranked North team.  If we assume Del Val has a loss (which they would if they are in this spot...they'd also not be #1 in the region at that point), then Wabash is probably the pick.  But we'll go with Delaware Valley here. 

Round 3:

• 5N Wabash (8-1, 0.512 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Welcome back, Rams.  Now we have scenario where everybody on this board has a loss, Wabash is the only team with a RRO win, and nobody has a particularly overwhelming SOS advantage.  Wabash goes in. 

Round 4:

• 5N North Central (7-2, 0.543 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Uh oh, Pioneers.  Last week we pretty much determined that North Central being at the table with UW-P means doomsday for the Pioneers.  And I kind of think that still has to be the case.  And if you're scoring at home, that means Platteville is blocking Bethel at the moment.  And now North Central is blocking Platteville.  This is interesting.  I'm eliminating Platteville because of the North Central h2h.  Muhlenberg has been on the board for three rounds.  Framingham has been around since Pool B with a Grover Cleveland-like break.  If I'm looking at the losses here, Muhlenberg and Framingham were not particularly competitive in their RRO losses.  North Central got clipped by a field goal at the buzzer at #3 North Wheaton.  I like North Central's RRO loss better than the other two, I really like that they beat a regionally ranked team, they have a decent SOS advantage...does all of that outweigh the extra loss to unranked Stevens Point?  I think it does.  North Central is the selection. 

Round 5:

• 8N Heidelberg (7-2, 0.497 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Honestly, I'm surprised at how this is playing out.  At this point we can rule out Heidelberg, because while they do have two results versus RROs, the Princes no-showed in both of those games.  And we've got teams here that have built up a good amount of balloting capital at this point.  Platteville has the SOS advantage here, their two losses are to ranked teams, and the 17-7 result against #1 West UW-Whitewater is the kind of result that earns you some credit.  Platteville can make this all a lot easier on themselves by beating Oshkosh on Saturday. 

And what the means, is that Centre isn't getting on the table.  Undefeated Centre isn't even getting talked about throughout the entire at-large process and, to be honest, that really bugs me.  Those South rankings are really, really strange. 

Round 6:

• 8N Heidelberg (7-2, 0.497 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 6W Bethel (7-2, 0.625 SOS, 2-2 vs. RRO)

-- I really don't know how, with that SOS number and the only team throughout this entire process (after Wesley) to have two wins over ranked teams, we could argue against Bethel here.  I know Muhlenberg has been there from the start.  Framingham has been around for five rounds including the Pool B conversation.  But I just don't know how you can apply the criteria in a  reasonable manner and not pick Bethel.  And we know that the committee, at least the chair of this committee,  has indicated preference for strong schedules and quality wins.  Schedules don't get a lot more difficult than the one Bethel played in 2014.  I'm taking Bethel as the last team in. 

[smedindy]

3. Maybe the biggest take away, and it pains me to say it...don't schedule tough non-con games if you play in a top 4 conference. The gauntlet that is the MIAC makes it really worthless to schedule a tough non-con and risk a loss if SOS and especially RRO aren't significant. 2-2 v. RRO is < 0-2 

If you follow #3 you could screw yourself with a different committee who WANTS you to schedule those games. Don't play with fire and schedule hacks and frauds.

We wouldn't be screwing ourselves at all. You're telling me a one loss MIAC team is staying home...doubtful.

With C bids shrinking from 6 to either 5 or 4, I wouldn't want to risk it.

[cubs]

So does an Oshkosh win over Platteville this weekend help them enough to get ahead of Bethel?

[TLU02SA]

Last projection here where the NCAA opens up the kimono.  After today, it's all a secret.  Let's get started.

Pool A (24 bids):

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	Wheaton
ECFC	Husson
E8	Ithaca
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Widener
MIAA	Trine
MIAC	St. John's
MWC	Illinois College
NACC	Lakeland
NCAC	Wittenberg
NEFC	MIT
NJAC	Rowan/Morrisville State
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Chapman
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

-- note that clnched bids are in bold
-- note that teams new to the projection this week are in italics

• 14 total bids have been clinched
• Ithaca and Wittenberg pulled off minor upsets to earn bids to the tournament
• Montclair State getting upended also takes them out of the field and puts in, well I'm not sure.  I'm reading probably Rowan, the ATN podcast is using prior NJAC tiebreak precedent to postulate that it might be Mo. State.  I'm pretty sure it's one or the other.  If we get confirmation that Rowan is a win-and-in situation on Friday, I'll amend the NJAC projection to have just Rowan. 

Pool B (2 bids):

Wesley (5-0, 1-0 vs. RRO, 0.605 SOS) - I said I wasn't going to talk about Wesley anymore because this is locked up, but it is worth noting that Wesley jumped UMHB in the South rankings (why? my guess is that Rowan being ranked makes the difference) which doesn't impact selection, but could impact whether or not Wesley hosts a semifinal.  I still think Wesley and UMHB are most likely on the road to UWW and UMU if the top seeds hold, but that flip-flop was interesting. 

The other Pool B bid...the players are:

• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Texas Lutheran (7-1, 0.544 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• 9N Chicago (7-1, 0.498 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)

-- First, whither Centre?  The South RAC has decided that Centre isn't as good as TLU, so I don't think we can really lump in to this group tonight.  Chicago doesn't have a quality win and their RRO "result" wasn't great (and got a smidge worse with Bethel's second loss).  So the Maroons are out.  TLU has the SOS advantage, plus they have a RRO win (10s Hardin-Simmons) to go along with their RRO loss to UMHB.  Framingham State now has an RRO result, but unfortunately it's a loss to E9 Rowan.  The way this board lays out, I think TLU is really the only choice.  Less easy to decipher is the case between TLU and Centre, but again, the South RAC made that choice for us. 

Pool C (6 bids):
Round 1:

• 2N John Carroll (9-0, 0.470 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 1E Delaware Valley (9-0, 0.482 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Ok, a couple of real surprises here.  First Del Val staying 1 in the East despite losing their two RRO wins.  That takes so much shine off of that profile.  Also, UW-P being ranked ahead of Bethel despite having really no real profile advantage over the Royals.  But this is what we've got to work with, so work we will.  As the only team on this board with a win against a ranked opponent (I have no earthly idea how that can happen), John Carroll is the pick. 

Round 2:

• 5N Wabash (8-1, 0.512 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 1E Delaware Valley (9-0, 0.482 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- This one is tough because the same logic that I used to pick JCU ought to lead me to pick Wabash here.  But Wabash does the loss whereas DelVal doesn't, and while it isn't stated criteria, I'm not sure I can assume a scenario where the #1 ranked East team doesn't go off before the #5 ranked North team.  If we assume Del Val has a loss (which they would if they are in this spot...they'd also not be #1 in the region at that point), then Wabash is probably the pick.  But we'll go with Delaware Valley here. 

Round 3:

• 5N Wabash (8-1, 0.512 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Welcome back, Rams.  Now we have scenario where everybody on this board has a loss, Wabash is the only team with a RRO win, and nobody has a particularly overwhelming SOS advantage.  Wabash goes in. 

Round 4:

• 5N North Central (7-2, 0.543 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Uh oh, Pioneers.  Last week we pretty much determined that North Central being at the table with UW-P means doomsday for the Pioneers.  And I kind of think that still has to be the case.  And if you're scoring at home, that means Platteville is blocking Bethel at the moment.  And now North Central is blocking Platteville.  This is interesting.  I'm eliminating Platteville because of the North Central h2h.  Muhlenberg has been on the board for three rounds.  Framingham has been around since Pool B with a Grover Cleveland-like break.  If I'm looking at the losses here, Muhlenberg and Framingham were not particularly competitive in their RRO losses.  North Central got clipped by a field goal at the buzzer at #3 North Wheaton.  I like North Central's RRO loss better than the other two, I really like that they beat a regionally ranked team, they have a decent SOS advantage...does all of that outweigh the extra loss to unranked Stevens Point?  I think it does.  North Central is the selection. 

Round 5:

• 8N Heidelberg (7-2, 0.497 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

-- Honestly, I'm surprised at how this is playing out.  At this point we can rule out Heidelberg, because while they do have two results versus RROs, the Princes no-showed in both of those games.  And we've got teams here that have built up a good amount of balloting capital at this point.  Platteville has the SOS advantage here, their two losses are to ranked teams, and the 17-7 result against #1 West UW-Whitewater is the kind of result that earns you some credit.  Platteville can make this all a lot easier on themselves by beating Oshkosh on Saturday. 

And what the means, is that Centre isn't getting on the table.  Undefeated Centre isn't even getting talked about throughout the entire at-large process and, to be honest, that really bugs me.  Those South rankings are really, really strange. 

Round 6:

• 8N Heidelberg (7-2, 0.497 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 6W Bethel (7-2, 0.625 SOS, 2-2 vs. RRO)

-- I really don't know how, with that SOS number and the only team throughout this entire process (after Wesley) to have two wins over ranked teams, we could argue against Bethel here.  I know Muhlenberg has been there from the start.  Framingham has been around for five rounds including the Pool B conversation.  But I just don't know how you can apply the criteria in a  reasonable manner and not pick Bethel.  And we know that the committee, at least the chair of this committee,  has indicated preference for strong schedules and quality wins.  Schedules don't get a lot more difficult than the one Bethel played in 2014.  I'm taking Bethel as the last team in.

Really great analysis.  Thanks for the info.

[smedindy]

I think Centre needs to write some VERY STRONGLY WORDED LETTERS or something...

[wally_wabash]

So does an Oshkosh win over Platteville this weekend help them enough to get ahead of Bethel?

No idea.  Tonight's rankings don't make a ton of sense to me.