Pool C -- 2014

[Pat Coleman]

It's the D-III record, but you take out the game that team played against them. So since Southwestern beat Sul Ross, you take out that loss and use 0-6 for Sul Ross in the calculation.

[Tekken]

Different entirely, for the win.  Thanks Pat.

[smedindy]

I dont' see how SOS has any impact on how a team should schedule. Bethel isn't real happy with their rannking right now despite the 2nd best SOS in the land. They are hurt by scheduling Wartburg. If they beat up on Luther instead they have no worries right now. North Central may be on the fence in terms of scheduling. They got hurt again this year by losing to UWSP, but they benefit by beating UWP.

Wheaton's SOS this year is atrocious because the CCIW did poorly out of conference and the teams they played (Kalamazoo, Coe, and UWEC) were bad teams. But somehow, in 2010 they beat a 5-5 Albion team, a 5-5 Plattevlille team and an 0-10 Olivet team and had an SOS that was in the top 5 in the country. Makes no sense to me. This years Wheaton's team is decidedly better than 2010 but if this years team was 9-1 they are likely on the bubble with no RRO wins and a weak SOS.

I think scheduling is relative depending on the conference you play in. It shouldn't be, but I think it is. Bethel didn't need to schedule Wartburg but Centre might have.

Smed, you say scheduling helped Franklin improve? How is that? for a year or two? They lost to IWU this year and were not competitive with UWW. How did scheduling make them better? If they played Alma instead of IWU they may be ranked higher and looking at a home playoff game instead of a 1st round road game.

I don't like teams that schedule soft but I know it happens. The system still rewards it. SOS doesn't appear to matter.

A. You MUST think over the long haul for a team like Franklin. Scheduling has made the PROGRAM better, over the long haul. They now know what they need to do to make the promised land. It's not a one or two year view, it's a long term view. This is what Franklin does to get better and attract better players.

B. You bring up Bethel. SOS is the ONLY reason they're in the spot they are. If they played Luther, they'd lose a RR result, they'd lose a TON of SOS and they may be very much on the cusp of making it or not. PLUS, playing Luther does Bethel no good in ANY front. None. Zero. Zip. Bethel is not of the level of Mt. Union. They can get games. They can't afford to dodge teams, if not for "C" criteria, but for seeding (or bracket placement).

C. Wabash, 2013 should be the poster child for SOS and a lack of a RR result killing a team in the playoff chances. You HAVE to have that. It DOES matter. If it didn't, Wabash would have made the playoffs last year and SJF would not have. Plus, the head of the committee said teams need to schedule up.

D. In 2010, Wheaton was 16th in the country in SOS. They were 26th in OWP and had a very good OOWP. In SOS terms, Albion was 5-3 (one loss was to a non-D3 team), Platteville would have been 5-4 with WIAC and IIAC opponents helping OOWP. Olivet played Wittenberg that year so that OOWP helped. AND, the CCIW lost TWO non-conference games total. That helps anyone's OWP and OOWP. It's NO mystery why Wheaton was great in SOS that year.

E. Yes, conference means a lot, but you have those non-conference games to help. In basketball, the NESCAC is picked on for cherry picking the better teams of weaker NE conferences to boost their SOS, but they can do that because they only play a single-round robin (there was a HUGE row about this last year, and the math proved that the single round helped them greatly, but that's another issue). For a team that wants to get a seat at the "C" table, you gotta make those games count by playing good teams and then hoping your conference mates win their smartly scheduled games. It makes no sense for Wittenberg to schedule Muskingum or Marietta. It makes sense for Kenyon to do so.

[Ralph Turner]

We can't. There are a boatload of schools that don't play football that are D3. If they decide to add football, like Hendrix and George Fox, we must, allow them in!

Growth for D3 helps us ALL! The playoffs will sort themselves out; the key is access and opportunity to intercollegiate athletics.

Except, "The playoffs will sort themselves out" doesn't actually solve the problem we could be facing. Just because you don't want to address the issue doesn't mean it just goes away or gets fixed.

Look, if we are going to keep the playoffs at 32 teams because we don't want to add another week to the season, that means we can't have more than 32 conferences, because then we're not giving auto-access through the AQ, which is a tenet of Division III athletics.

How do we add a "boatload" of teams while keeping the conference total under 32? Eventually, something has to change. You either have to cut off opportunity, or add another week. There's no way around it

Most all of those teams can't or won't support football. Some may, but many won't.

The point was that if an Oglethorpe or Calvin decided to add football, they should be allowed to easily without people getting their shorts in a knot.

Oglethorpe and Calvin are not the problem. They have a ready made home. 

As I try to find where the next Pool A bid might go (after the MASCAC and SAA), I think that it might go to the SCAC, with Centenary and/or UDallas and/or Schreiner adding football, and maybe stealing a "football newbie" like Concordia-Texas from the ASC.

For our discussion, which other non-football conference adds the sport? 

Capital AC and that pushes the NJAC into the Bumblies?  But that does not increase the Pool A bids.
Thanks to my colleagues for the chance to provoke thought.

Just catching up on the posts that I overlooked. +1! to smedindy in post #618 for covering this point.

[smedindy]

Do you think those teams will add football, Ralph?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Ralph - the CAC isn't going to add football. I think they made a play at it on paper, but then screwed up with the addition of Harrisburg to the conference. They had a chance, but didn't get the right ducks aligned. I also think the Landmark may have made a play (even though, several I have talked with in the conference disagree with me - I don't think they are telling me the whole story), but the got caught up in the Mid-Atlantic shuffle that the CAC made the play recently with. I don't see any conference in this area adding football unless another conference (or more) are blown up - and that won't change the AQ situation.

Also... Division III growth has slowed as, I would say, has the growth of football. I think there are legitimate reasons to add the sport and/or join the division... but they have slowed down in recent years.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Is there any possibility that the MWC keeps growing then one day splits into two conferences?

[smedindy]

The MWC is losing Carroll. That puts them back to 10, plus Macalester. There's the UMAC and the NACC. I think the movement, if any, would be between those two conferences. The MWC seems like a really good fit for all of its institutions. I think the NACC has to worry about Rockford. I know a few years ago their situation wasn't so good, financial wise.

[USee]

I dont' see how SOS has any impact on how a team should schedule. Bethel isn't real happy with their rannking right now despite the 2nd best SOS in the land. They are hurt by scheduling Wartburg. If they beat up on Luther instead they have no worries right now. North Central may be on the fence in terms of scheduling. They got hurt again this year by losing to UWSP, but they benefit by beating UWP.

Wheaton's SOS this year is atrocious because the CCIW did poorly out of conference and the teams they played (Kalamazoo, Coe, and UWEC) were bad teams. But somehow, in 2010 they beat a 5-5 Albion team, a 5-5 Plattevlille team and an 0-10 Olivet team and had an SOS that was in the top 5 in the country. Makes no sense to me. This years Wheaton's team is decidedly better than 2010 but if this years team was 9-1 they are likely on the bubble with no RRO wins and a weak SOS.

I think scheduling is relative depending on the conference you play in. It shouldn't be, but I think it is. Bethel didn't need to schedule Wartburg but Centre might have.

Smed, you say scheduling helped Franklin improve? How is that? for a year or two? They lost to IWU this year and were not competitive with UWW. How did scheduling make them better? If they played Alma instead of IWU they may be ranked higher and looking at a home playoff game instead of a 1st round road game.

I don't like teams that schedule soft but I know it happens. The system still rewards it. SOS doesn't appear to matter.

A. You MUST think over the long haul for a team like Franklin. Scheduling has made the PROGRAM better, over the long haul. They now know what they need to do to make the promised land. It's not a one or two year view, it's a long term view. This is what Franklin does to get better and attract better players.

There is no evidence they are any better off for having gotten beaten by Mt Union and UWW in the preseason. None. It's a perception they may become better but it hasn't worked yet.

B. You bring up Bethel. SOS is the ONLY reason they're in the spot they are. If they played Luther, they'd lose a RR result, they'd lose a TON of SOS and they may be very much on the cusp of making it or not. PLUS, playing Luther does Bethel no good in ANY front. None. Zero. Zip. Bethel is not of the level of Mt. Union. They can get games. They can't afford to dodge teams, if not for "C" criteria, but for seeding (or bracket placement).

Where they are? They are on the cusp of NOT MAKING IT NOW? If they beat Luther instead of losing to Wartburg you really think they are ranked lower as a 9-1 team? I think not.

C. Wabash, 2013 should be the poster child for SOS and a lack of a RR result killing a team in the playoff chances. You HAVE to have that. It DOES matter. If it didn't, Wabash would have made the playoffs last year and SJF would not have. Plus, the head of the committee said teams need to schedule up.

Agreed but that has more to do with the bottom half of the NCAC than it does scheduling up. Wabash is an example of a team that is nationally strong in a weaker conference (but clearly improving) and it makes more sense for them to schedule up to make sure they get that RRO outside of Witt.

D. In 2010, Wheaton was 16th in the country in SOS. They were 26th in OWP and had a very good OOWP. In SOS terms, Albion was 5-3 (one loss was to a non-D3 team), Platteville would have been 5-4 with WIAC and IIAC opponents helping OOWP. Olivet played Wittenberg that year so that OOWP helped. AND, the CCIW lost TWO non-conference games total. That helps anyone's OWP and OOWP. It's NO mystery why Wheaton was great in SOS that year.

You made my point. Their SOS was great that year but their team was worse than this years version. Those teams they played that year were were marginally better than the teams they played this year. Mike Swider is notorious for scheduling middle of the pack teams in the non conference because he knows 9-1 gets him in. There is no incentive for him to schedule top teams when he has 1-3 RRO teams sitting in the CCIW each year. With the reduction of Pool C teams that strategy may well come back to bite him one day (and it almost did this year) but it has paid off big time in the last 12 years. 6 playoff appearances and 4 of them via Pool C. And not scheduling up didn't hurt them in the playoffs either as their pool C teams included 2 quarterfinal and 1 semifinal team. Before they lost to Bethel in the 2nd round in 2010 they had never lost a playoff game to a team not named Mt Union (including beating the OAC #2 team in 2003)

[smedindy]

It HAS worked, dude. Franklin is a yearly contender for the playoffs and is a lot more highly regarded than they were. More kids WANT TO GO THERE to play football! They're RRd every year, WIN  playoff games and are now a force in the Midwest. How has it NOT worked? Not every team lives in a high and mighty ivory tower like Wheaton, where they just roll out and are a playoff contender. Jeez.

As for Bethel is probably in at 8-2 with those RR results, a rare one at 8-2. At 9-1 with a lower SOS and a lesser schedule, and an unco-operative MIAC and WIAC (sometimes they cannibalize and don't have RR possibilities, you don't know year over year) they may not be so early off the board in the West. Nobody knew that going into it that Wartburg was Wartburg and that the MIAC was going to really be ultra-loaded. Plus, Wartburg is a good fit for them and they've played them three years in a row. Why wouldn't they play each other if there's a fit. When these teams started playing Wartburg wasn't THIS Wartburg. They were good but not great. Luther, on the other hand, was horrid. No help. At all.

Scheduling isn't just about gaming the system - it's facing off teams that fit your own. Not everything thing is a zero sum game about playoffs. It's making your team better, not just as players, either.

As for Wheaton, you asked about the SOS, not the quality of the team. I made the point, you ignored it. You said it made no sense their SOS was so high. Well, it wasn't in the Top 5 as you said but it was good. and it made sense why The CCIW this year is an example of not counting your RR and OOWP chickens before they hatch. A 9-1 Wheaton may not have made it because of their schedule, and the coach was warned about that last year thanks to Wabash's fate.

You MUST remember the committee for these past years has said SCHEDULE UP! To everyone. It is hard to predict how good a team will be in a few years, but the message is clear to make an effort at least.

[D3AlumniParent]

I'll say this- (and thanks for sharing your math...I didn't realize that Southwestern's contribution to OOWP would have that much impact but it definitely does) when TLU plays Southwestern tomorrow, their SOS is going to get trashed in the same way HSU's SOS would have.  With the South RACs willingness to shuffle things around with very little changes last Saturday, that game with Southwestern may completely alter the way they view and rank TLU after tomorrow.  Perhaps enough to rethink how much Centre's 1.000 win percentage ought to contribute to their ranking vis a vis TLU.  And if not the South RAC, it may be enough for the national committee to make their own adjustment.

You're welcome Wally. Amazing to think that the most influential team for playoff berths in the South this year is probably Southwestern. Were it not for that lightning storm, H-S very possibly wouldn't be ranked, meaning TLU wouldn't have a RR victory.

Southwestern's effect would have been slightly greater on H-S's SOS than that of TLU, however.  I calculate a net drop to TLU of a 0.0429. This assumes that TLU's opponents win % this week follows their season average.

Here's that spreadsheet (TLU's SOS):  http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

[D3AlumniParent]

It's the D-III record, but you take out the game that team played against them. So since Southwestern beat Sul Ross, you take out that loss and use 0-6 for Sul Ross in the calculation.

Ooohhh...Thanks Pat. I was wondering why my spreadsheet was slightly off for each team I tried to plug in.  I appreciate the explanation.

[Tekken]

Let me put my Nostradamus hat on real quick.

Each team's DIII record along with what game they have remaining:

TLU OWP

SRSU    0-6    HPU
HSU      4-1    LC
LC        4-2    HSU
HPU      2-4    SRSU
ETBU    4-3    UMHB
UMHB   8-0    ETBU
TU       3-5     AC
AC     4-3     TU
29-24   .547 (current)

This weekend projections: (This value is actually exact given the way it plays out.  Unless TLU loses.  In which case, again I've wasted alot of time)

1-1 SRSU/HPU
1-1 HSU/LC
1-1 ETBU/UMHB
1-1 TU/AC
1-5 SW
5-9

34-33   .507 (projected OWP)

.539 OOWP current (if you think I'm trying to figure this out, you're crazy)

34-33   .507 x .66 = .3349
19-35   .539 x.33 = .178

.5127 (92) <--Ranking based on this weeks SoS standings

Same song, different verse:

Centre OWP
Hanover  2-6    Frank
Defiance  3-5    Bluff
W&L        1-7    Shen
Wash U    4-4    Carn Mel
Berry      2-6    None
Sewanee 2-6    Hendrix
Rhodes    7-1   Millsaps
Hendrix   4-3    Sewan
Millsaps   3-4   Rhodes
28-42 .400 (current)

Centre's opponents' results aren't as cut and dry.  I'm not about evaluating all these teams, so I just assumed better record wins.

0-1 Hanover
0-1 Defiance
0-1 W&L
1-0 Wash U
1-1 Sewanee/Hendrix
1-1 Rhodes/Millsaps
3-4 Birm South
6-9

34-51  .4 (projected OWP)

.5403 OOWP current

34-53  .4 * .66 = .264
37-32  .540 * .33 = .178

.442 (208)

I understand OOWP will be affected by OOOWP and so forth and so forth.  The OWP carries the most weight by the formula, though, so the other change should be much less in comparison, and this would be a pretty accurate view of SoS comparisons

This week               Next week
TLU      .554 (33)       .513 (92)
Centre  .443 (206)     .442 (208)


TLU takes a big hit, now sitting in the 39th percentile, having a slightly/moderately (you choose how you want to define that) above average SoS against 232 teams.
Centre falls negligibly, now sitting in the 90th percentile, having one of the least rigorous SoS compared against 232 teams.

[USee]

You think it has worked for Franklin and I see no evidence of it.  They made the playoffs  in 2007(OWU, Wabash and Tri State), 2008 (BaldwinWally, Butler, Trine) and 2010(Carthage and Valpo). They played UWW/Mt Union in the preseason starting in 2011. They are a yearly contender for the playoffs because they stole Mike Leonard from Hanover and he is a good coach so they stopped having losing records (1999-2005) and started winning games. You keep wanting to defend your point, go for it. I am actually in favor of scheduling up. I am making the point that it hasn't proved effective and many coaches don't do it because they don't need to. I think they will have to with less Pool C bids. My point about Wheaton in 2010 was always the fact their SOS happened to be strong that year and happens to be weak this year. There is relatively little difference in the quality of their opponents that year vs this year in my opinion. The irony is they are a better team this year.  The SOS was higher because their conference did better in the non-con games and this year they did worse. It was random as the scheduling across the conference was relatively similar.



DUDE. Why do you have such an attitude when someone counters your arguments? You have to cut down another school because why? It makes you feel better? What did I say negatively about another school? I disagree that the system rewards those who schedule up. I am sorry if that bothers you.

[smedindy]

I wouldn't be so sure about H/S not being ranked with the storm. It's another win for them. It may lower their SOS but they'd still have a higher SOS than Emory & Henry. Their SOS is a drag on them...