Pool C -- 2014

[Tekken]

I wouldn't be so sure about H/S not being ranked with the storm. It's another win for them. It may lower their SOS but they'd still have a higher SOS than Emory & Henry. Their SOS is a drag on them...

Plus, it would further enhance TLU's SoS by increasing their OWP.  You're grasping at straws on the HSU front Parent.  Everything validates them against the other possible #10 candidates.  A case can be made for the others as well, but you can't make a case against them.  I know you desarately want your conspiracy theory to be true, but let's be rationale here.

The only way I see things getting dicey for TLU over Centre, Muhlenberg is if HSU loses.  Then everything is back on much more even footing between the three.  TLU and Muhlenburg would both have one loss, albeit both to RRO, with a significantly higher SoS than Centre.  Centre would have the edge in win % by virtue of not playing a RRO, with one of the worst SoS in division III.  I don't think any of the three could argue at that point.  A fairly even case could be made for all.

[smedindy]

In the past the system didn't reward the scheduling up but it does now and it was very clear in 2013.

Franklin's whole idea is to schedule those games after they got to the playoffs. They've WON playoff games after they did and haven't been one-year playoff wonders. They've built a sustaining program and challenged themselves. That scheduling isn't about the wins and losses to that team. It's about wins and losses in November. It's paid off, period.

How did I denigrate? Bethel scheduling Luther does Bethel no good. St. Olaf scheduling Luther, if they would do that, helps both St. Olaf and Bethel because it's a winnable game for St. Olaf. I'm speaking the truth that it does no good for top caliber teams to schedule duds knowingly. 

I'm just don't cotton to non-sensical logic or goal-post moving. The teams Wheaton played in 2010 were better across the board. Their OWP this year is garbage. In 2010 it was near the top. The CCIW was a beast in 2010 and can't get out of its own way now. That 2010 league helps a great deal. Plus, I'd say that Albion and Platteville in 2010 were better than Coe and Eau Claire (by miles in Eau Claire's case) and you get what you pay for when you schedule a bottom rung MIAA team. You also need to give your coach some slack. Coe is down this year. Eau Claire is down. Coe made the playoffs in 2012 and were 7-3 last year. It seemed like a good move to schedule them. Scheduling a WIAC team could always pay off, especially in the OOWP factor. It just came up snake eyes this year for Wheaton.

[smedindy]

I'm firmly convinced now that a 10-0 Centre will not stay home.

[D3AlumniParent]

I calculate a net drop to TLU of a 0.0429. This assumes that TLU's opponents win % this week follows their season average.

Here's that spreadsheet (TLU's SOS):  http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

Correction: After Pat Coleman set me straight on how to determine win/loss record.  Spreadsheet is now accurate and Net drop after Southwestern is likely to be about .0375.

[D3AlumniParent]

I'm firmly convinced now that a 10-0 Centre will not stay home.

Why is that smed?

[Tekken]

I'm firmly convinced now that a 10-0 Centre will not stay home.

Care to explain?

[Tekken]

I calculate a net drop to TLU of a 0.0429. This assumes that TLU's opponents win % this week follows their season average.

Here's that spreadsheet (TLU's SOS):  http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

Correction: After Pat Coleman set me straight on how to determine win/loss record.  Spreadsheet is now accurate and Net drop after Southwestern is likely to be about .0375.

You've got to add in the result this week for the other 8 DIII teams TLU has played as well.  They all play each other, so by default that average will be .500 and raise this back up again negligibly.  I've put together results for both TLU and Centre on the last page.

Also, just FYI, you've got UMHB at 9-0, should be 8-0. For at least 14 more hours.

[Ralph Turner]

Hardin Simmons' game against Southwestern was cancelled due to lightning. Unlike Chicago's against Pacific, which was called due to air traffic issues. At least no one in "C" contention played Maranatha.

Funny about Marantha. Sad about the other. So a lightning strike is the reason Hardin-Simmons has a #48 ranked SOS instead of one around #150.

In Abilene, there are a lot of people who think God likes the Baptists best.  ;-)

[smedindy]

I'm firmly convinced now that a 10-0 Centre will not stay home.

Why is that smed?

The National Committee will see a team, through no fault of it's own, go undefeated against a honest-to-god Division 3 schedule, and not have access to an automatic bid. Yes, their schedule looks poor, but as we've said it was a historical confluence of stink for their opponents. 10-0 is 10-0, and only a few teams each year accomplish it.

The South may have been trying to edge Muhlenberg up to get on the board KNOWING the national committee would manuever Centre into  the "B", and then getting TLU on the board first as a "C" with decent credentials if H/S wins and stays ranked. They'll have an edge against Framingham and decent credentials against other "C" teams as long as Hardin / Simmons stays ranked. This is all political back room stuff. The East seemingly have been masters at it (we really don't know, but we can hazard a guess).

I do think Bethel probably goes as a 2-loss team, but I'm not so sure about a Platteville or a North Central (assuming the West fixes their rankings).

Of course this all goes poof if they lose to Birmingham Southern...

[USee]

Franklin first made the playoffs in 2007 after 7 years of losing records. They made the playoffs 3 times (07,08, 2010) and went 2-3. They first played UWW at the start of the season in 2011, then Mt union in 2012/13 and UWW again this year. In those years they are 3-4 in the playoffs, making it 3 times. Mike Leonard is what turned that program around, not scheduling top teams. And winning their conference allows them to make the playoffs, which they would do anyway. Does playing UWW and Mt Union prepare them for the playoffs? Apparently not any more than playing Carthage, OWU and Trine.

I am in favor of scheduling up, I think there are benefits. Franklin isn't any better as a result from what I can see. And scheduling up doesn't pay off for most teams. Bethel at 9-1 has no worries about the playoffs, they are in. Right now at 8-2 (after tomorrow) they may not be (but probably are). SOS is s two edged sword.

[smedindy]

Mike Leonard is the one who wants to schedule those teams. The top of  HCAC is getting more competitive. They keep on top by getting ready to beat MSJ and RHIT. There's more good it does to schedule them than facing off against Wilmington or Kenyon. They already play Earlham. Why play another one? You get better as a team by playing the best. W/L records may not reflect it. But it's building a team AND building young men.

[smedindy]

Another wild card is what happens if Oshkosh beats Platteville. Think this through, assuming all "C" contenders win, Linfield beats Pacific and Del Val and JCU are in "C" and Bethel assumes their logical spot in the West rankings.

The picks go in no order: JCU, Del Val, Wabash, TLU/Centre (I'm guessing there). This assumes H/S beats Louisiana College and stays ranked.

Bethel vs. Framingham vs. Muhlenberg vs. North Central - Bethel (even at two losses vs. Framingham - going on Wally's earlier logic regarding Framingham).

So now spot six:

Oshkosh vs. Framingham vs. Muhlenberg vs. North Central - North Central probaly lost their RR win by Platteville going poof unless the committe is nice to them, but still that win becomes less shiny. Framingham beats Muhlenberg on credentials. So it comes to Oshkosh vs. Framingham. SOS to Framingham. Maybe Oshkosh is 1-1 in RR. Hmmm...

[D3AlumniParent]

The only way I see things getting dicey for TLU over Centre, Muhlenberg is if HSU loses.  Then everything is back on much more even footing between the three.  TLU and Muhlenburg would both have one loss, albeit both to RRO, with a significantly higher SoS than Centre.  Centre would have the edge in win % by virtue of not playing a RRO, with one of the worst SoS in division III.  I don't think any of the three could argue at that point.  A fairly even case could be made for all.

I'll ignore you're provocations, timmy, because I don't feel like arguing with you. Let's call a spade a spade here. Whether anyone, everyone, noone wants to analyze the strength of the opponents you beat or not, the fact remains: TLU's SOS is propped up by LOSING to a 10-0 (Likely) team. Take that game out and compare ONLY games you won and TLU's SOS sits at 0.456, good for 195th place on this week's list. I'm projecting Centre's to be about 0.464.

So you can sit there and downgrade Centre's schedule all night long, but the fact is that TLU beat nobody. If H-S loses, welcome to Pool C and good luck.

[Ralph Turner]

Do you think those teams will add football, Ralph?

UT-Tyler would require a vote by the student body to increase the activities fee by several hundred dollars and then require some major capital investment in facilities.  Probably not!
LeTourneau -- not likely.
Concordia TX -- Interesting.  Their academic profile is as close to the SCAC as it is to the ASC. It would make for an interesting move to add football if you did not have to play UMHB.
UT-Dallas -- I haven't heard.  That is more of an urban school. UT-Arlington only recently resumed football. The Dallas Cowboys smother a lot of interest and UT, OU, A&M Texas Tech Okie State  and now TCU and Baylor have large followings among those that do.
University of the Ozarks -- very small campus and very isolated.  Travel would be a real stretch on the budget.


Belhaven and McMurry are coming on-line so that takes a little of the pressure off in the ASC.


As for the SCAC...
Schreiner played football as a JUCO long ago.
UDallas failed in the early 2000's to add football.
Centenary -- I thought that Centenary would when they hired McMurry's VP for admissions (Dave Voskuil).  (Then Dave went to Southwestern and now he is at E&H with President Jake Shrum, Southwestern's former president. Dave Voskuil is excellent. E&H has a great one!) As for Centenary, not yet.
Colorado College  -- they will probably vote out Marijuana in Colorado before CC resumes football.

[D3AlumniParent]

You've got to add in the result this week for the other 8 DIII teams TLU has played as well.  They all play each other, so by default that average will be .500 and raise this back up again negligibly.  I've put together results for both TLU and Centre on the last page.

Also, just FYI, you've got UMHB at 9-0, should be 8-0. For at least 14 more hours.

I actually didn't intend to put all tomorrow's games in, but I can. All this damned math is killing me. I want to go back to questioning the offensive coordinator's play calling, where I'm batting 1.000%.

I saw that you had UMHB w/8 games and assumed that was taking out Southwestern Assemblies. I only kept the # at 9 because that's what the NCAA SOS said. But I'm sure you're right. I'll change that to 8.

...wonder if that extra victory on the NCAA's site is added to all UMHB's opponents and their opponents opponents....this would overly inflate some teams numbers...hmmm ...must be a TLU grad working at the NCAA...