Pool C -- 2014

[wabndy]

Looking at sos only

No loss teams
Centre. 213.  0.440

Ranked one-loss teams:
Framingham   44. 0.532
Wabash. 66.  0.520
Del Val. 73. 0.519
Oshkosh. 77. 0.517
JCU 90.  0.511
TLU. 96.  0.510
Muhlenberg. 122. 0.500
Chicago 155. 0.485

Ranked two-loss teams:
SJF. 19. 0.558
North Central  29. 0.540
St. Lawrence. 42.  0.535
St. Thomas. 115.  0.502
Thomas More 162. 0.481


Where would you draw a number to say a higher sos overcomes an extra loss?  A spread of 0.030?

[D3AlumniParent]

HSU dropping out makes TLU's selection a referendum on scheduling UMHB more or less, since they likely could have gone 10-0 by finding a more beatable school to play.

I agree with you on this Keith- in a way. (But first a quick disclaimer: I'm 100% confident that Centre will be invited to play now. And I believe that's true regardless of whether Rhodes becomes RR'd. So my thoughts have nothing to do with them. Here's my running SOS comparison of Centre & TLU: http://goo.gl/KSeVrj)

First an observation:

It seems to me that there is a small pool of mostly Texas schools (including the SCAC) that all play each other and with very little competition outside of their group. (Sul Ross St., Howard Payne, East Texas Baptist, Southwestern U, Trinity, TLU, Hardin-Simmons). It's like a little conference, of sorts.

But the "OOC" games they're scheduling include the likes of Wayland Baptist, Langston, Southwestern Assemblies, Bacone, Okla. Baptist, Okla. Panhandle & more. The net of this is that you're only seeing 6,7,8 D3 games listed on their SOS. It's like a little island of football. So their SOS #s end up a little skewed.

Proof of what I'm saying: when looking at your final SOS (http://goo.gl/KSeVrj) and total number of wins and losses of your opponents, the max you can get is 100 (ten teams, ten games). Centre had 95, while TLU had 77. It makes the comparisons of SOS less statistically relevant. It's also subject to large fluctuations. Even in the final week, if you add great opponent (UMHB) or a bad opponent (Southwestern) to a teams SOS, it can fluctuate enough to move a team up/down 50 spots if there are only 5/6 other games on D3 Schedule. The numbers are fragile.

And then it's difficult to compare one of these schools to schools outside of their own little group. Trust me, as I tried hard to find common opponents for TLU, H-S, Rhodes and Centre. There were less degrees of separation with my good friend Kevin Bacon. And we're not talking about east coast vs west coast conferences. The SAA borders Texas.

Now my point re: TLU:

If TLU gets in the tournament, it will primarily because they scheduled Mary-Hardin Baylor. The total D3 record of their opponents other than UHMB is 25-33. It took UMHB to get them one game over .500. Heck, it took UMHB on the schedule to prop their final SOS to where it will be almost in the top 100.

If TLU does not get in the tournament, it's because they didn't schedule anyone else. Maybe all those team I mentioned above are traditional opponents and they want to keep up the rivalries. Fine. In no way did TLU suffer because of this loss. Just don't schedule Southwestern Assemblies. 

What RR opponent would they stack up well against? Despite 9 wins, their D gave up over 30 points per game and average margin of victory against that bad schedule was only 10. (Yeah Centre's schedule was untraditionally weak, but at least they took care of business winning by  25.6ppg. Again, not that this is a comparison).

Hardin-Simmons should never have been RR'd, in my opinion, anyway. No good wins but a decent SOS from a schedule of weak teams. I felt very strongly H-S was going to lose today. Paper lion going against a good team in Louisiana College.

One thing I didn't understand: Austin's coach sits on the South RC. They played TLU (RR#5) and lost by 12. Played Rhodes (No RR) and lost by 21. Heck I'm 1000 miles away and can draw conclusions from reading the scores on the internet. He had first hand knowledge, yet Rhodes got no love. Why is that?

To sum up: It doesn't take a perfect storm to blow down a house with fragile supports. The house of cards that put TLU at RR#5 has lost two of it's walls. The next South Region Committee conference call will be interesting. I foresee a major sales job on the merits of Louisiana College as a RR team. Feel free to read between those lines.

[D3AlumniParent]

Looking at sos only

No loss teams
Centre. 213.  0.440

Ranked one-loss teams:
Framingham   44. 0.532
Wabash. 66.  0.520
Del Val. 73. 0.519
Oshkosh. 77. 0.517
JCU 90.  0.511
TLU. 96.  0.510
Muhlenberg. 122. 0.500
Chicago 155. 0.485

Ranked two-loss teams:
SJF. 19. 0.558
North Central  29. 0.540
St. Lawrence. 42.  0.535
St. Thomas. 115.  0.502
Thomas More 162. 0.481


Where would you draw a number to say a higher sos overcomes an extra loss?  A spread of 0.030?

I have Centre at .4471 and TLU at .5076  http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

[izzy stradlin]

Looking at sos only

No loss teams
Centre. 213.  0.440

Ranked one-loss teams:
Framingham   44. 0.532
Wabash. 66.  0.520
Del Val. 73. 0.519
Oshkosh. 77. 0.517
JCU 90.  0.511
TLU. 96.  0.510
Muhlenberg. 122. 0.500
Chicago 155. 0.485

Ranked two-loss teams:
SJF. 19. 0.558
North Central  29. 0.540
St. Lawrence. 42.  0.535
St. Thomas. 115.  0.502
Thomas More 162. 0.481


Where would you draw a number to say a higher sos overcomes an extra loss?  A spread of 0.030?

Who knows.   Although of the 1 loss teams Oshkosh really doesn't fit with the rest win percentage wise at ~0.85.   

[Ron Boerger]

It seems to me that there is a small pool of mostly Texas schools (including the SCAC) that all play each other and with very little competition outside of their group. (Sul Ross St., Howard Payne, East Texas Baptist, Southwestern U, Trinity, TLU, Hardin-Simmons). It's like a little conference, of sorts.

But the "OOC" games they're scheduling include the likes of Wayland Baptist, Langston, Southwestern Assemblies, Bacone, Okla. Baptist, Okla. Panhandle & more. The net of this is that you're only seeing 6,7,8 D3 games listed on their SOS. It's like a little, inbred island of football. So their SOS #s end up a little skewed.

This is a huge generalization and not necessarily a valid observation.   Trinity played Chicago, Willamette, and Pacific Lutheran this year alone in addition to their SCAC foes and three ASC teams.   Who else do you want them to play?   

[D3AlumniParent]

I was actually referring to Hardin-Simmons and TLU specifically. Trinity scheduled very well.

[roocru]

I was actually referring to Hardin-Simmons and TLU specifically. Trinity scheduled very well.

Scheduling is not a one way street.  It takes two teams to agree.  In 2012 and 2013 Hardin Simmons played Linfield and Willamette. In 2011 and 2012 they played Coe and Willamette. Take a look at Louisiana College's schedule. UMHB scheduled Kean, Redlands, Millsaps and LaCrosse. Austin College played Occidental this year.   The schools in Texas will schedule anyone anywhere if they can someone else to agree.

[cubs]

D3 Sports guys picked the following as Pool C bids:
1.  John Carroll
2.  Centre
3.  Wabash
4.  Delaware Valley
5.  Framingham State
6.  North Central

Oshkosh at table from the start and never gets selected.  Muhlenberg and St. John Fisher also left at table.

[smedindy]

D3AlumniParent,

Texas schools find games ANYWHERE they can get them. DO NOT denigrate their schedule out of conference. It's tough to get games there because of travel. That's just petty sniping. Any long time D3 guys knows that the NWC, SCIAC and Texas teams have it rough in finding out of league games.

[cubs]

D3AlumniParent,

Texas schools find games ANYWHERE they can get them. DO NOT denigrate their schedule out of conference. It's tough to get games there because of travel. That's just petty sniping. Any long time D3 guys knows that the NWC, SCIAC and Texas teams have it rough in finding out of league games.

You could also add top WIAC teams to that list...  Just look at Oshkosh's NC schedule the last few seasons.  Might cost them a Pool C bid this year!!!

[smedindy]

D3AlumniParent,

Texas schools find games ANYWHERE they can get them. DO NOT denigrate their schedule out of conference. It's tough to get games there because of travel. That's just petty sniping. Any long time D3 guys knows that the NWC, SCIAC and Texas teams have it rough in finding out of league games.

You could also add top WIAC teams to that list...  Just look at Oshkosh's NC schedule the last few seasons.  Might cost them a Pool C bid this year!!!

The WIAC has nearby D3 teams, though. There's another reason for their scheduling issues. (Not really blaming the WIAC here, but Texas and the West Coast are islands...)

[D3AlumniParent]

D3AlumniParent,

Texas schools find games ANYWHERE they can get them. DO NOT denigrate their schedule out of conference. It's tough to get games there because of travel. That's just petty sniping. Any long time D3 guys knows that the NWC, SCIAC and Texas teams have it rough in finding out of league games.

I appreciate that its hard. And I believe that to be true. But I CAN and I WILL denigrate TLU's schedule, pardner. One of TLU's cheerleaders has repeatedly lambasted other teams' schedules, when the exact same thing could be said about them. Southwestern Assemblies?

Yet I watched the South RC slide consecutive teams in at #10RR in to help one of those members get in. Turnabout is fair play smed. And I'm just calling a spade a spade. But I thank you for your considered opinion. 

[smedindy]

They couldn't find anyone else. Back off. I've seen this for year in D3. Next year, McMurry comes back into D3 and that will help a little bit. You get the games you can find in Texas.

Southwestern Assemblies didn't count for TLU in any way shape or form. In D3 parlance, it's a nothing burger except for secondary criteria. Same with Oshkosh's 3 non_D3 games.

As for the ranking, they didn't SLIDE anyone in. H-S is as good as any team in the South. So is LC. The choices were Guilford, LC, or maybe Ursinus. Pick your poison. Three definitely non-South guys picked LC as #10 in the South in the podcast just now.

I've semi-joked about the East sliding teams around to get a team or two in the past, but this is NO conspiracy theory against Centre. Yeesh.

[crufootball]

D3AlumniParent,

Texas schools find games ANYWHERE they can get them. DO NOT denigrate their schedule out of conference. It's tough to get games there because of travel. That's just petty sniping. Any long time D3 guys knows that the NWC, SCIAC and Texas teams have it rough in finding out of league games.

I appreciate that its hard. And I believe that to be true. But I CAN and I WILL denigrate TLU's schedule, pardner. They played nobody. One of TLU's cheerleaders has repeatedly lambasted other teams' schedules, when the exact same thing could be said about them. Southwestern Assemblies?

Yet I watched the South RC slide consecutive teams in at #10RR in to help one of those members get in. Turnabout is fair play smed. And I'm just calling a spade a spade. But I thank you for your considered opinion. 

Just out of curiosity who would you have them play? Since they literally played every D3 team in the state and 1 out, it seems a little harsh to act like they have bad motives. Every other D3 team would require a plane to get to Seguin if the NCAA was picking up the tab.

[smedindy]

I defended Centre's schedule as a confluence of stink by their opponents through no fault of their own. Cut TLU the same slack in being creative to get a full schedule.

It's also hard to schedule the other 'island' at times because the SCIAC and NWC teams normally just schedule nine-game seasons, by choice. A few go 10 on occasion, but not often. This year Whitworth played 10, and Pacific would have if the game of Chicago went on. No SCIAC team played 10.