Pool C -- 2014

[roocru]

D3AlumniParent,

Texas schools find games ANYWHERE they can get them. DO NOT denigrate their schedule out of conference. It's tough to get games there because of travel. That's just petty sniping. Any long time D3 guys knows that the NWC, SCIAC and Texas teams have it rough in finding out of league games.

I appreciate that its hard. And I believe that to be true. But I CAN and I WILL denigrate TLU's schedule, pardner. They played nobody. One of TLU's cheerleaders has repeatedly lambasted other teams' schedules, when the exact same thing could be said about them. Southwestern Assemblies?

Yet I watched the South RC slide consecutive teams in at #10RR in to help one of those members get in. Turnabout is fair play smed. And I'm just calling a spade a spade. But I thank you for your considered opinion. 

Slow down, take a breath and read my post on the SAC board. I once made some outlandish posts when I was a newbie on the board.  Some older and wiser board members told me to back off and do some research on D3 criteria and history and I am much the wiser for it.  Everyone has opinions,  some are just based on facts.

[D3AlumniParent]

I defended Centre's schedule as a confluence of stink by their opponents through no fault of their own. Cut TLU the same slack in being creative to get a full schedule.

It's also hard to schedule the other 'island' at times because the SCIAC and NWC teams normally just schedule nine-game seasons, by choice. A few go 10 on occasion, but not often. This year Whitworth played 10, and Pacific would have if the game of Chicago went on. No SCIAC team played 10.

OK, I've taken 10 deep breaths. I didn't realize it's that hard to schedule games for those Texas teams. Explains why my observation was accurate about their recurrence on each other's schedules. Some schools (UMHB & LC), at least this year, do a much better job than others (Austin, TLU) though.

[smedindy]

SW Assemblies DID go 4-6 this year. They were 0-3 against D3!

Austin plays SW Assemblies every year. TLU started in 2012. Last year's was cancelled due to lightning.

Also, it's like "What's our open date? Who has open dates that week around us?" "SW Assemblies? Call them..."

[wesleydad]

As a follower for the poster child of "who can we find to play us?" it is as Smed said, who has an open date and will they say yes.  Wesley has had to do that for several years now and ended up playing anyone that would say yes this year.  Roo is also correct, they have to say yes even if they have an open date.  Wesley also has several schools back out of the 2nd year of 2 year contracts.  As has been stated the Cali and Texas schools only have so many choices and with money being an issue at times you do what you can.  Also, if you are trying to grow and improve you are not going to go out and schedule stud schools until you are ready to challenge them.  I am on record as feeling that it would be a shame if Centre at 10-0 does not get in, but I am not sure if it would be TLU's fault if the committee chose them instead.  How would they compare out if TLU had played someone else, say a .500 team and went 10-0.  Who looks better then?

[kiko]

I defended Centre's schedule as a confluence of stink by their opponents through no fault of their own. Cut TLU the same slack in being creative to get a full schedule.

It's also hard to schedule the other 'island' at times because the SCIAC and NWC teams normally just schedule nine-game seasons, by choice. A few go 10 on occasion, but not often. This year Whitworth played 10, and Pacific would have if the game of Chicago went on. No SCIAC team played 10.

OK, I've taken 10 deep breaths. I didn't realize it's that hard to schedule games for those Texas teams. Explains why my observation was accurate about their recurrence on each other's schedules. Some schools (UMHB & LC), at least this year, do a much better job than others (Austin, TLU) though.

Let's be clear: calling the Texas teams a "little inbred island of football" is a bit more than an 'observation'.   As are the continued accusations of shenanigans because the TLU coach somehow can force the South Region advisory committee to bend to his will.  You've made this accusation several times; saying something over and over doesn't necessarily make it true.

Centre has a great case for both Pool B and, if needed, Pool C berths.  Their credentials aren't flawless, and neither are TLUs.  (And by the way - if TLU makes the tournament field, the primary reason will be because they won nine games, not because they scheduled UMHB.)

I realize you're passionate about your team's chances, but this isn't exactly as black-and-white as you are trying to will it to be, and as others have detailed, the scheduling situation in the geographies that are D3 islands is as much about what you can do as it is about what you'd like to do.

[D3AlumniParent]

I am not sure if it would be TLU's fault if the committee chose them instead.  How would they compare out if TLU had played someone else, say a .500 team and went 10-0.  Who looks better then?

OK. That's easy to answer. Put Wash U (4-5 D3 record) on TLU's schedule. For the sake of this example I'll assume TLU wins. TLU's SOS goes to .4605 to Centre's .4471. Centre beat Wash U 50-20. Wash U likely scores more points. With common opponents it would become clear that Centre is a better team.

[D3AlumniParent]

I am not sure if it would be TLU's fault if the committee chose them instead.  How would they compare out if TLU had played someone else, say a .500 team and went 10-0.  Who looks better then?

OK. That's easy to answer. Put Wash U (4-5 D3 record) on TLU's schedule. For the sake of this example I'll assume TLU wins. TLU's SOS goes to .4605 to Centre's .4471. Centre beat Wash U 50-20. Wash U likely scores more points. With common opponents it would become clear that Centre is a better team.

Put Rhodes on TLU's schedule and they have another loss. It shouldn't have taken H-S to lose for Rhodes to get regionally ranked.

[smedindy]

I am not sure if it would be TLU's fault if the committee chose them instead.  How would they compare out if TLU had played someone else, say a .500 team and went 10-0.  Who looks better then?

OK. That's easy to answer. Put Wash U 94-5 D3 record) on TLU's schedule. For the sake of this example I'll assume TLU wins. TLU's SOS goes to .4605 to Centre's .4471. Centre beat Wash U 50-20. Wash U likely scores more points. With common opponents it would become clear that Centre is a better team.

You can't assume that!

Massey has TLU ahead of Centre (before todays games). Rhodes is far south of both of them in Massey. Beating Birmingham Southern by just 10 and Hendrix by only 4 hurts Rhodes' power rankings.

[wesleydad]

I am not sure if it would be TLU's fault if the committee chose them instead.  How would they compare out if TLU had played someone else, say a .500 team and went 10-0.  Who looks better then?

OK. That's easy to answer. Put Wash U (4-5 D3 record) on TLU's schedule. For the sake of this example I'll assume TLU wins. TLU's SOS goes to .4605 to Centre's .4471. Centre beat Wash U 50-20. Wash U likely scores more points. With common opponents it would become clear that Centre is a better team.

They look pretty even to me, both 10-0 and TLU has slightly higher SOS.  You can't assume how much Wash U would score against TLU, but I figure you went with season numbers to predict that.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I hope both get in before any 2 loss team does.

[D3AlumniParent]

You can't assume that!

Massey has TLU ahead of Centre (before todays games).

I'm not assuming anything, Smed. I'm giving my opinion of what would happen. Until today Austin's largest margin loss was to Rhodes- 21 points- vs a 12 point loss to TLU.

That's as close as you can get to playing- a single common opponent. Look, I realize things happen- some kid is hurt, a young QB was still learning the offense, whatever. There are always variables in play.

But I don't just work backwards from a desired result then formulate opinions that support it.

TLU beat only two decent teams, LC being the best. I thought LC was better than HC 2 days ago- based on the results I saw. And I was right. Maybe I guessed right.

Rhodes has lost 2 games to RR teams and almost (should have) won one of those.

[smedindy]

But Rhodes almost lost to two poor teams. That works against them, especially in statistical algorithms. Austin improved as they year went along. Rhodes lost their mojo after Centre.

I trust Massey when there's not true common opponents.

[D3AlumniParent]

They look pretty even to me, both 10-0 and TLU has slightly higher SOS.  You can't assume how much Wash U would score against TLU, but I figure you went with season numbers to predict that.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I hope both get in before any 2 loss team does.

No way they look even. With a common opponent (WashU in my example) their SOS would be virtually identical- within 0.0134. But Centre pummelled their schedule- winning by an average score of 25.6 points. Once you get over 3 touchdowns you're talking backups time.
TLU's won by 10.9 ppg.

And again, who did they play?

Please understand the points I was trying to make regarding the Texas schools. I shouldn't have taken a shot at them, I admit. But I've been analyzing for many hours this week and trying to figure out why TLU's SOS was so much higher despite not seeing any good teams on the schedule. I just see their SOS as false-positive.

I'm not going to argue the use of SOS as a metric- I'm done. But here you are, Wesley Dad, you look at two schools and all you see is 10-0/.460/RR win and 10-0/.447/RR win, and think "looks even".

I don't believe that at all so I tried to identify why. I'm not out to convince any voters. Centre has played their way in- it's going to happen.

I just want to rationalize why these look the same and I have some answers. I identified what a 9-0 record for one of your opponents does to your SOS- jacks it up. I identified what cancelling a game against a 1-8 team does to your SOS- keeps it from falling significantly. Both of those facts are made possible- the larger fluctuations- when there aren't many D3 teams on your schedule, which is something I identified with several of the Texas teams I mentioned. Though I was, of course, most focused on TLU and H-S.

My method of delivery may have been lacking poise  but my observations were neither poorly reasoned nor based on emotion.

Hey- I'm a fan for sure. But I was just trying to figure out why numbers weren't showing what I thought to be true. That's it.

[D3AlumniParent]

But Rhodes almost lost to two poor teams. That works against them, especially in statistical algorithms. Austin improved as they year went along. Rhodes lost their mojo after Centre.

I trust Massey when there's not true common opponents.

Smed, now you're talking like a football fan that goes by what he sees. I love it. That's the way I am too. But this is the Pool C forum where all that matters, as has been pointed out (sometimes rudely), are the criteria.

There's no stat for "almost lost" in the NCAA's criteria. In fact I almost cringed expecting to be roasted when I mentioned "scoring margin" because it was irrelevant to Pool C.

But I'll take your comment as an invitation to delve further into my opinions then. I think 2-8 W&L would compete favorably with 90% of TLU's schedule. I'd give them even odds to go at 5-4 against that schedule (not including UMHB, of course)- and possibly higher.

They lost 5 games by a total of 17 points. They were not a bad team at all.

Those are gut feelings, but also based on the fact that I saw them play and have studied these schedules and results and looked for patterns. But my gut feeling means nothing to a stranger from the North Region...ha.

[D3AlumniParent]

Beating Birmingham Southern by just 10 and Hendrix by only 4 hurts Rhodes' power rankings.

Agree re: Birmingham Southern. They're just bad. Not sure what happened there. But Hendrix is not a bad team. (5-4 D3). In fact in the last four games, they played pretty well. Had a couple players come back from injury and started hitting their stride. They'll be even more competitive next year.

Pat Coleman was at the Centre-Hendrix game. Probably too busy with the brackets to give an opinion, though.

[ksclegal]

As discussed on the Bracketology show last night  unless the national committee chooses to adjust the South regional rankings (unlikely) Centre has no shot at a Pool B bid because they are ranked behind TLU. This ranking was based primarily on Centre's poor SOS. While I agree an undefeated Centre team deserves to be in the tournament , I don't believe denigrating a TLU team because of their schedule has any merit. TLU would love to play SAA teams on a regular basis but the SAA teams have been reluctant . This probably has a lot to do with why they left the SCAC to begin with. By the way TLU , Centre and Framingham St. all made the field in the show last night.