Pool C -- 2014

[Upstate]

Fantastic listen last night Pat, Frank and Wally!

It was interesting to listen to the rationale regarding each pick.

A few questions though. Is the Alfred State game going to hurt Fisher in the selection process, would an 8-2 vs 7-2 record vs D3 teams look better?

Also is there any chance a team like Buff St or Utica sneak up into the RRs to give SJF a better resume or is the prevailing thought that the East committee ranks their AQs no matter what going to squash that?

Lastly, the voting for that final pool C bid was very close. Any chance it goes Fishers way?

[art76]

Fantastic listen last night Pat, Frank and Wally!

It was interesting to listen to the rationale regarding each pick.

I concur. (It must be admitted that I forced my family to eat more ice-cream and brownies with Hershey's syrup while visiting my daughter and her husband last night while listening in - as it went longer than I thought it would). It really is interesting to see how first Oshkosh and then Bethel blocks the next best team in the West, regardless of who it is. Can the West Regional Committee "re-stack" the order to better serve their interests in getting another at-large bid, or would that not fly so well knowing where the teams were previously ranked.  I was really surprised to hear your reasons why Bethel stays in with 3 losses - I was sure they'd be out of the picture. That still doesn't help that much with Oshkosh blocking. Thoughts anyone?

[USee]

The voting for the final spot was a virtual coin flip.  It certainly could go either way.  One point I would make is Rod Sandberg, head coach at Whitworth, is on the national committee.  He was the defensive coordinator for 10+years at Wheaton until this year.  He has alo of insight into teams like North Central and Wabash.  That may work for or against NCC (depending on his feelings toward them! ) and I only say that because committee member out west aren't typically as informed about teams out of their region. 

[USee]

The guys did a great job last night.  It was fun to listen to.  My only disappointment is we didn't get to see Wally's written analysis on here since Pat poached him for the broadcast.  Makes for a more boring day until 6pm!

[Frank Rossi]

Fantastic listen last night Pat, Frank and Wally!

It was interesting to listen to the rationale regarding each pick.

A few questions though. Is the Alfred State game going to hurt Fisher in the selection process, would an 8-2 vs 7-2 record vs D3 teams look better?

Also is there any chance a team like Buff St or Utica sneak up into the RRs to give SJF a better resume or is the prevailing thought that the East committee ranks their AQs no matter what going to squash that?

Lastly, the voting for that final pool C bid was very close. Any chance it goes Fishers way?

Thanks for the listen, Upstate.  First, SJF should be thankful that Alfred State doesn't count for SOS purposes since that's the one part of the SJF résumé that buoys it.  The negligible winning percentage difference doesn't really factor in.

As Pat pointed out in his writeup, the East rankings seem to indicate the past couple weeks the preference of the East RAC to rank all AQs.  Maybe that changed last night, as Lycoming and Morrisville would've been better suited in that final slot, and Ithaca's existence would've been questionable after the Cortaca loss.  Tough call, but we think the RAC was trying to clue us in on their plan the last couple weeks.

As for SJF, I really think it's a question of when SJF hits the board, if at all.  If it happens in the 6th Round like we encountered, then the chances are very low.  In reality, since JCU, Centre, and the two East teams would go first, there is no way SJF gets on the board earlier than the 5th Round.  As I said on the show, maybe the remaining Committee members have good memories of SJF from last year as a two-loss team?  But it'll be tough to see enough members from non-East schools roll SJF quick enough to get them the 6th bid.  Impossible?  No.  But I'd say you're looking at a 30% chance currently.  That's definitely enough to justify watching the 6pm show later today!

[Upstate]

Planned on it Frank!

I don't have my hopes up for Fisher though. It's so weird that since 2010 Fishers best two teams ('10 & '14) don't get in but their ok teams ('11 & '13) get in and win a couple games on the road vs four teams that had one regular season loss between the four of them.

Man I, just like everyone else, would love to see the final rankings!

[wesleydad]

got to listen to the show this morning.  excellent job by all 3, Pat, Frank, and Wally.  The final regional rankings will play a big part in who gets in at the end.  If some of the teams the panel projects are not in the final rankings then things may change a little bit.  The brackets are nice to look at because there are some real good second round game possibilities if the seedings hold in round 1.  It will be interesting to see who the National Committee chooses.  I am likely going to be at a fine local establishment watching the Eagles/Packers game so I am not sure when I will check out if I dont watch it on my phone during the game.

[wabndy]

Looking at sos only

No loss teams
Centre. 213.  0.440

Ranked one-loss teams:
Framingham   44. 0.532
Wabash. 66.  0.520
Del Val. 73. 0.519
Oshkosh. 77. 0.517
JCU 90.  0.511
TLU. 96.  0.510
Muhlenberg. 122. 0.500
Chicago 155. 0.485

Ranked two-loss teams:
SJF. 19. 0.558
North Central  29. 0.540
St. Lawrence. 42.  0.535
St. Thomas. 115.  0.502
Thomas More 162. 0.481


Where would you draw a number to say a higher sos overcomes an extra loss?  A spread of 0.030?

I have Centre at .4471 and TLU at .5076  http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

I stick with Pat's calculator. I reposted it here to make it easier to compare:
http://www.d3football.com/seasons/2014/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

[ITH radio]

We'll have Chairman Naatz on around 7:45 pm to discuss the playoff brackets, who's in and who's out and more. Tune in to www.inthehuddlle.com and Tweet us @ITHuddLLe with any questions for Duey and make sure to use #d3fb32

[PA_wesleyfan]

 Undefeated is undefeated. You still have to play the games. And speaking from almost twenty years of Wesley  scheduling difficulties , sometimes the other teams schedules  and sometimes teams just wont play you.

[Tekken]

Student, teacher, ethicist, homer,and now rude cheerleader. Seems I wear many hats.  However the truth of the matter is I've been objective the entire time, both when it benefits TLU and when it harms them.  Two weeks ago I even questioned whether their SoS was artificially inflated by virtue of not playing Austin College or Southwestern yet.  And here we are with the adjustments and they still rank considerably higher than Centre and marginally higher than Muhlenberg. Put the conspiracy theories to rest already. The complaint against HSU now seems to be they were exposed by a very good LC team. Yet if that same very good LC team who played arguably the toughest schedule in the land makes a regional ranking its just further proof of Texasgate.  The doublespeak and crazy allegations undermine the valid point that these three teams in the south now sit much closer together when parsing their virtues. Any of them will probably be disappointed if they don't get in, but none of them can make a great argument they were slighted. 

Specifically pertaining to TLU, if they don't get in what is the incentive to ever schedule UMHB again? The SCAC isn't getting an AQ in the foreseeable future, and both the precedent and the likelihood of going 10-0 and getting in vs lesser competition as opposed to going 9-1 against greater competition and being left home will have been set.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the posts. (This is my worst weekend to be on the road, so I haven't been able to post.)

Thanks to Wally!  Great job!  +1!

[smedindy]

I don't think TLU nor Centre are staying home, so the majority of posturing and ham-fisted reasoning on this board will be for naught.

[MonroviaCat]

I don't think TLU nor Centre are staying home, so the majority of posturing and ham-fisted reasoning on this board will be for naught.

Agreed--I'd also add that it would be for naught either way 

[Tekken]

I don't think TLU nor Centre are staying home, so the majority of posturing and ham-fisted reasoning on this board will be for naught.

I don't either, but I know only one of them will get a Pool B birth.  And the one of them that does will have gained it by merit, not by virtue of dim lit, smoke filled room.

I'm also not sure where this ham-fisted reasoning comes in.  Unless you're talking about Parent, then I agree.    (Take a joke, man).  Were my name LarryLinfield with 2,000 posts, not timtlu and new to the board, I think you might see it very differently.  I think you made an assumption on my homerism or specific disdain for Centre, because our first positions on one issue didn't jive, though in the bigger picture it looks like we actually think very similarly on a number of fronts.  I won't waste any more time of the board arguing that point, though.