FB: Region 6 fan poll

[02 Warhawk]

Bethel's final game at St. Thomas will be a huge one. If Bethel drops that, we probably won't see a Pool C bid out of the MIAC this year.

GAC is a long shot for Pool C, but with losses against SJU & Bethel they are a better candidate than a two loss UST with a loss to UWEC.

Also, if GAC beats UST, they'll be Regionally ranked. If Bethel holds serve against UST, that'd be 2-1 v. RRO for Bethel.

GAC may not make the field, but if they hold serve they could have a large say in what happens with Pool C candidacy for a 1 loss MIAC, WIAC, and SCIAC runners-up.

Bethel's final game at St. Thomas will be a huge one. If Bethel drops that, we probably won't see a Pool C bid out of the MIAC this year.

And yeah, it'll be a big game. Just like last year, with the exception that UST can't come in with only a single loss so it won't be a true play-in game like last years contest shaped up to be.

Right, I'm not even considering GAC and UST as Pool C bids. Two losses is pretty much a death sentence for an at-large bid. There's too many good one-loss teams out there: Linfield, Bethel, Redlands, Susquehanna, NCC, Wesley, UWP and John Carroll/BW. I don't see any of those teams losing again, with the exception of maybe UWP losing to UWO and obviously the winner of the JC/BW game will probably get in.

I'm sure there's other good one-loss teams out east I'm missing.

Linfield isn't really a Pool C candidate-either they win the conference (PoolA) or lose a 2nd game and fall way out of Pool C contention.

Good point, you're right

[02 Warhawk]

Bethel's final game at St. Thomas will be a huge one. If Bethel drops that, we probably won't see a Pool C bid out of the MIAC this year.

GAC is a long shot for Pool C, but with losses against SJU & Bethel they are a better candidate than a two loss UST with a loss to UWEC.

Also, if GAC beats UST, they'll be Regionally ranked. If Bethel holds serve against UST, that'd be 2-1 v. RRO for Bethel.

GAC may not make the field, but if they hold serve they could have a large say in what happens with Pool C candidacy for a 1 loss MIAC, WIAC, and SCIAC runners-up.

Bethel's final game at St. Thomas will be a huge one. If Bethel drops that, we probably won't see a Pool C bid out of the MIAC this year.

And yeah, it'll be a big game. Just like last year, with the exception that UST can't come in with only a single loss so it won't be a true play-in game like last years contest shaped up to be.

Right, I'm not even considering GAC and UST as Pool C bids. Two losses is pretty much a death sentence for an at-large bid. There's too many good one-loss teams out there: Linfield, Bethel, Redlands, Susquehanna, NCC, Wesley, UWP and John Carroll/BW. I don't see any of those teams losing again, with the exception of maybe UWP losing to UWO and obviously the winner of the JC/BW game will probably get in.

I'm sure there's other good one-loss teams out east I'm missing.

Linfield still has Whitworth to play. NCC still has IWU. And JC still has Heidelberg and as you mentioned, UWP has UWO remaining. The former in these matchups will all be favored but certainly none are prohibitive favorites. Some dominoes have to fall correctly but there's a window here (albeit small) for a 2-loss team, especially if those losses are to top 10 teams. GAC still has a pulse, IMO.

A pulse...sure. But through that logic so does UWL and UWO. Maybe even more so for UWL, since they only have one D3 loss.

[art76]

Right, I'm not even considering GAC and UST as Pool C bids. Two losses is pretty much a death sentence for an at-large bid. There's too many good one-loss teams out there: Linfield, Bethel, Redlands, Susquehanna, NCC, Wesley, UWP and John Carroll/BW. I don't see any of those teams losing again, with the exception of maybe UWP losing to UWO and obviously the winner of the JC/BW game will probably get in.

I'm sure there's other good one-loss teams out east I'm missing.

02 WH and I have some similar thinking going on. When I turned in my West Regional poll, I had to do a complete rethink of ranking based on playoff-ability over and above the team's record. As a result, I only had one 2 loss team still on the ballot, and they lost to a D2 school for their second loss. For one, I am really looking forward to the next couple of weeks weekly rankings, because the playoffs are looming.

Also, did you catch on the podcast this morning that Wally Wabash is going to do a mock Pool C bid-in this week using the different D3 mock regional postings? It's always a good level headed discussion of what is likely at this moment in time.

[WW]

Bethel's final game at St. Thomas will be a huge one. If Bethel drops that, we probably won't see a Pool C bid out of the MIAC this year.

GAC is a long shot for Pool C, but with losses against SJU & Bethel they are a better candidate than a two loss UST with a loss to UWEC.

Also, if GAC beats UST, they'll be Regionally ranked. If Bethel holds serve against UST, that'd be 2-1 v. RRO for Bethel.

GAC may not make the field, but if they hold serve they could have a large say in what happens with Pool C candidacy for a 1 loss MIAC, WIAC, and SCIAC runners-up.

Bethel's final game at St. Thomas will be a huge one. If Bethel drops that, we probably won't see a Pool C bid out of the MIAC this year.

And yeah, it'll be a big game. Just like last year, with the exception that UST can't come in with only a single loss so it won't be a true play-in game like last years contest shaped up to be.

Right, I'm not even considering GAC and UST as Pool C bids. Two losses is pretty much a death sentence for an at-large bid. There's too many good one-loss teams out there: Linfield, Bethel, Redlands, Susquehanna, NCC, Wesley, UWP and John Carroll/BW. I don't see any of those teams losing again, with the exception of maybe UWP losing to UWO and obviously the winner of the JC/BW game will probably get in.

I'm sure there's other good one-loss teams out east I'm missing.

Linfield still has Whitworth to play. NCC still has IWU. And JC still has Heidelberg and as you mentioned, UWP has UWO remaining. The former in these matchups will all be favored but certainly none are prohibitive favorites. Some dominoes have to fall correctly but there's a window here (albeit small) for a 2-loss team, especially if those losses are to top 10 teams. GAC still has a pulse, IMO.

A pulse...sure. But through that logic so does UWL and UWO. Maybe even more so for UWL, since they only have one D3 loss.

If both/either were being considered for Pool C, I'm not sure how they'd leapfrog 8-2 GAC, although a three-way tie atop the WIAC, w/ UWP, UWW and UWL all 1-1 vs each other would be..... interesting.

[TheChucker]

So, for potential 2-loss teams getting a Pool C bid, who would get the bid between St. Thomas and Hardin Simmons in that scenario (I know that neither might make it)?

HSU is currently ranked higher in both AFCA and D3Football but that might change assuming UST beats Bethel (the only way UST can remain a 2-loss team).

HSU is currently the 3rd ranked South region team if I'm counting correctly while UST is the 7th West region team (UST would move up with a Bethel win).

Both HSU and UST are a bus ride away from a likely top seed's bracket (UMHB and USJ).

Both had uncharacteristic losses against unranked teams (TX Lutheran and Eau Claire).

[02 Warhawk]

So, for potential 2-loss teams getting a Pool C bid, who would get the bid between St. Thomas and Hardin Simmons in that scenario (I know that neither might make it)?

HSU is currently ranked higher in both AFCA and D3Football but that might change assuming UST beats Bethel (the only way UST can remain a 2-loss team).

HSU is currently the 3rd ranked South region team if I'm counting correctly while UST is the 7th West region team (UST would move up with a Bethel win).

Both HSU and UST are a bus ride away from a likely top seed's bracket (UMHB and USJ).

Both had uncharacteristic losses against unranked teams (TX Lutheran and Eau Claire).

This is all that matters:
TLU is 6-1
UWEC is 3-4

The answer is HSU eight days a week over UST for that phantom Pool C bid 

[TheChucker]

So, for potential 2-loss teams getting a Pool C bid, who would get the bid between St. Thomas and Hardin Simmons in that scenario (I know that neither might make it)?

HSU is currently ranked higher in both AFCA and D3Football but that might change assuming UST beats Bethel (the only way UST can remain a 2-loss team).

HSU is currently the 3rd ranked South region team if I'm counting correctly while UST is the 7th West region team (UST would move up with a Bethel win).

Both HSU and UST are a bus ride away from a likely top seed's bracket (UMHB and USJ).

Both had uncharacteristic losses against unranked teams (TX Lutheran and Eau Claire).

This is all that matters:
TLU is 6-1
UWEC is 3-4

The answer is HSU eight days a week over UST for that phantom Pool C bid 

True about opposing team records, but they were both weird games. I watched some of both. I don't know if I've ever seen a team dominate between the goal lines like St. Thomas did vs. Eau Claire and still lose. It was weird. For that matter, Hardin Simmons had much better stats than TLU but repeatedly came up short when it mattered...like running in quick sand.

[DuffMan]

...but they were both weird games.

I'm not positive, but I don't think that is anywhere in the criteria. 

[wm4]

02 WH and I have some similar thinking going on. When I turned in my West Regional poll, I had to do a complete rethink of ranking based on playoff-ability over and above the team's record. As a result, I only had one 2 loss team still on the ballot, and they lost to a D2 school for their second loss. For one, I am really looking forward to the next couple of weeks weekly rankings, because the playoffs are looming.

Also, did you catch on the podcast this morning that Wally Wabash is going to do a mock Pool C bid-in this week using the different D3 mock regional postings? It's always a good level headed discussion of what is likely at this moment in time.

Just curious, why would playoff-ability now be a criteria for or a variable in ranking your teams?

[art76]

WM4, and others,

For me at least, there are three sub-seasons within a season and each has its own criteria.

Voter sub-season A is in the beginning of the season where teams rely heavily upon what they did the year before.

Voter sub-season B is during the middle of the season when the current teams start standing on their own merit for the work they have done this year.

Voter sub-season C is at the end of the season, when we start trying to project how teams will do in the play-offs.

Hope this helps,

[Pat Coleman]

Also, did you catch on the podcast this morning that Wally Wabash is going to do a mock Pool C bid-in this week using the different D3 mock regional postings? It's always a good level headed discussion of what is likely at this moment in time.

Yes. But not using the boards' regional rankings, though, since those don't necessarily follow the selection criteria.

[hazzben]

Also, did you catch on the podcast this morning that Wally Wabash is going to do a mock Pool C bid-in this week using the different D3 mock regional postings? It's always a good level headed discussion of what is likely at this moment in time.

Yes. But not using the boards' regional rankings, though, since those don't necessarily follow the selection criteria.

Unfortunately, sometimes the official regional rankings don't either  (although it's gotten much better in the last 10 years or so)

[Pat Coleman]

Also, did you catch on the podcast this morning that Wally Wabash is going to do a mock Pool C bid-in this week using the different D3 mock regional postings? It's always a good level headed discussion of what is likely at this moment in time.

Yes. But not using the boards' regional rankings, though, since those don't necessarily follow the selection criteria.

Unfortunately, sometimes the official regional rankings don't either  (although it's gotten much better in the last 10 years or so)

+1

[wm4]

WM4, and others,

For me at least, there are three sub-seasons within a season and each has its own criteria.

Voter sub-season A is in the beginning of the season where teams rely heavily upon what they did the year before.

Voter sub-season B is during the middle of the season when the current teams start standing on their own merit for the work they have done this year.

Voter sub-season C is at the end of the season, when we start trying to project how teams will do in the play-offs.

Hope this helps,

Interesting.  By comparison, I don't consider any playoff element in ranking my top 10.  Here in week 8, this is the most confident I've been all season about who the top 10 teams are in the West.  I have a feeling there will be more fireworks in these final three weeks too.

[MediaGuy]

With playoff and pool C talk heating up, I was just curious if anyone can foresee a team starts a log jam in the pool C discussion...i.e. an 8-2 team is regionally ranked higher than other 9-1 teams, then when they take the next highest regionally ranked teams out of the 4 regions for pool C consideration, is never really discussed and other 9-1 teams never make it to the table for consideration.  I think that happened with UW-Platteville a few years ago.  Do we think UST, Gustavus or Platteville could do that in the west region again?  And is there some mechanism to prevent this from happening in the future?