FB: Region 6 fan poll

[hazzben]

Don't look now, but Lake Forest and Martin Luther just popped over the hill and are in the rearview mirror. 

The official Regional Rankings will often slot these teams at the bottom of the rankings as well. Having seen the annual beatdowns they take in Rd 1, there's no way these teams are better than Central, UWP, UWO, UWL, UST, GAC, or Whitworth. I don't view the Regional Rankings as making sure you give a slot to every Pool A team, but rather a true look at who are the best 10 teams in the West region. But maybe someone is actually arguing for that.

I like C-M a lot. But the fact is they were a 2-5 team that SJU lost to. I didn't put SJU at #7 but they dang sure deserve a greater consequence than falling a single spot after losing to a 2-5 team, rival or not.

I wouldn't quibble with them dropping several spots, but there are not 6 teams better than SJU, IMO anyway  . And C-M's results against UWL, SJU and UWW indicate there's every reason to think they'd be in the game against other teams in the Top 10.

[02 Warhawk]

Last week I had SJU #1, UWW #2 and Bethel #3.

This week, with the SJU loss, I still felt i had to keep SJU above Bethel based on H2H results. So dropping SJU down a few spots meant I had to drop Bethel down as well, which I didn't want to do. So putting SJU in the #2 spot this week was the most comfortable place IMO.  I just flip flopped SJU and UWW, while keeping Bethel where they were.

[bleedpurple]

Thank you guys for doing this. I know it can be a tricky exercise and reading the different viewpoints is helpful in trying to interpret the D3 landscape. Well done!!

[wm4]

Agreed.  The "Bethel Block" was definitely in play here.  SJU probably should drop to the 3-5 range, given the nature of their loss and that it was a to a 2-5 team this late in the season.  But you couldn't justify dropping SJU below Bethel, given that SJU beat Bethel 19-0.  And since Bethel has been rolling lately, it's tough to support moving them down at all. 

There are big games left between UST/GAC and UST/Bethel.  Those will be important in sorting out both the MIAC, Pool C and more data to rank the top 10.

Also, agreed, there is no way Martin Luther or Lake Forest are in the top 10 best teams in the West.  They may get into the playoffs via Pool A, but they're not among the top 10 teams on the field.

[retagent]

I guess it all depends upon what your criteria is. If you think that Bethel can beat SJU (they DIDN.T), whether you believe Wartburg could beat SJU the majority of the time, whether you believe Chapman or Redlands could beat them, then you assess them that way. If you think a team should be PUNISHED for losing to an inferior (as most have posted) team, then punish them. If you think that the first seven games mean less than one (very odd) game, then do what you need to do.  Personally, having seen both, I think an SJUU/UWW game is a toss-up.

[wm4]

The SJU loss is ugly, by far the worst in the West so far this year, so there should be consequences in that regard.  But are teams 6-10 actually better than SJU?  I don't think so.  Is an awful kicking game a big liability heading into November and the playoffs?  Absolutely. 

The seeds of this were planted 4 weeks ago, when after losing to SJU, Bethel didn't drop in the rankings at all.  In fact, among our group, SJU moved up 1 as a result of beating Bethel and notching the best win in the West at that time.

[02 Warhawk]

I guess it all depends upon what your criteria is. If you think that Bethel can beat SJU (they DIDN.T), whether you believe Wartburg could beat SJU the majority of the time, whether you believe Chapman or Redlands could beat them, then you assess them that way. If you think a team should be PUNISHED for losing to an inferior (as most have posted) team, then punish them. If you think that the first seven games mean less than one (very odd) game, then do what you need to do.  Personally, having seen both, I think an SJUU/UWW game is a toss-up.

That's what I go by for the most part. Try to predict who can beat who on a neutral field based on the data we gathered throughout the year. With that being said I still believe UST can beat Wartburg. So I have UST #7 and Wartburg #8. Also have SJU and Bethel ahead of Chapman and Redlands using the same logic.

For me, H2H trumps all. So I still have Chapman #4 who beat Redlands #5 who beat Linfield #6

[02 Warhawk]

The SJU loss is ugly, by far the worst in the West so far this year, so there should be consequences in that regard.  But are teams 6-10 actually better than SJU?  I don't think so.  Is an awful kicking game a big liability heading into November and the playoffs?  Absolutely. 

The seeds of this were planted 4 weeks ago, when after losing to SJU, Bethel didn't drop in the rankings at all.  In fact, among our group, SJU moved up 1 as a result of beating Bethel and notching the best win in the West at that time.

It's a toss up.....St. Thomas fans might have something to say about that*. UWEC might be worse than Concordia.

*Or maybe they don't want to talk about it.

[wm4]

It's a toss up.....St. Thomas fans might have something to say about that*. UWEC might be worse than Concordia.

*Or maybe they don't want to talk about it.

Well played.

Fact is, SJU was #1 in this poll, and lost to a 2-5 team.  UST was #3 and lost to a (now) 3-5 team.  Both were shockers and both SJU and UST dominated statistically.  UWEC may be worse than Concordia, but SJU was notably better than UST.

Actually, this is proving to be a fun year to track the West.  Other years have been so predictable and largely devoid of upsets like we're seeing this year.  As a voter, you really need to pay close attention to games, opponents, conferences, etc.  It's been a lot of fun doing so.

[02 Warhawk]

It's a toss up.....St. Thomas fans might have something to say about that*. UWEC might be worse than Concordia.

*Or maybe they don't want to talk about it.

Well played.

Fact is, SJU was #1 in this poll, and lost to a 2-5 team.  UST was #3 and lost to a (now) 3-5 team.  Both were shockers and both SJU and UST dominated statistically.  UWEC may be worse than Concordia, but SJU was notably better than UST.

Actually, this is proving to be a fun year to track the West.  Other years have been so predictable and largely devoid of upsets like we're seeing this year.  As a voter, you really need to pay close attention to games, opponents, conferences, etc.  It's been a lot of fun doing so.

Very true

[art76]

Also, agreed, there is no way Martin Luther or Lake Forest are in the top 10 best teams in the West.  They may get into the playoffs via Pool A, but they're not among the top 10 teams on the field.

wm4, and others,

If you have read all of this topic's posts, you would see that I have shared earlier that as a pollster, 1) I had no two loss teams on this week's ballot, and 2) I had to "dig deep into the non-power conferences" to find such teams. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who voted in Martin Luther and Lake Forest. Hate me for it if you want to, but I am looking at the body of work that a team has put forward to this point in the season. Then after any qualifiers are dealt with, I rank the 10 best teams left standing. At least in my eyes, these are the teams most likely to make it to the playoffs. If teams have eliminated themselves by shooting themselves in the foot, it's simply survival of the fittest. Within the group of ten, I do try to figure out "who would beat whom" within the 10 to rank them, but going outside to deal with outliers only muddies the water for me. Could just about any WIAC or MIAC team in discussion here wallop the bottom of my ballot? Probably, but that's not the point, at least to me. I am here to rank the top 10 in the West Region that are going to the playoffs.

02 Warhawk is always asking for more people to become voters at the beginning of the year. You have opportunity to change things with your vote if you do not like things the way they are.

[hazzben]

Also, agreed, there is no way Martin Luther or Lake Forest are in the top 10 best teams in the West.  They may get into the playoffs via Pool A, but they're not among the top 10 teams on the field.

wm4, and others,

If you have read all of this topic's posts, you would see that I have shared earlier that as a pollster, 1) I had no two loss teams on this week's ballot, and 2) I had to "dig deep into the non-power conferences" to find such teams. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who voted in Martin Luther and Lake Forest. Hate me for it if you want to, but I am looking at the body of work that a team has put forward to this point in the season. Then after any qualifiers are dealt with, I rank the 10 best teams left standing. At least in my eyes, these are the teams most likely to make it to the playoffs. If teams have eliminated themselves by shooting themselves in the foot, it's simply survival of the fittest. Within the group of ten, I do try to figure out "who would beat whom" within the 10 to rank them, but going outside to deal with outliers only muddies the water for me. Could just about any WIAC or MIAC team in discussion here wallop the bottom of my ballot? Probably, but that's not the point, at least to me. I am here to rank the top 10 in the West Region that are going to the playoffs.

02 Warhawk is always asking for more people to become voters at the beginning of the year. You have opportunity to change things with your vote if you do not like things the way they are.

I think that's a different definition of Regional Ranking. It's not, rank the West teams most likely to make the field. It's rank the 10 best teams in the West. If you think Martin Luther and Lake Forest are two of the top 10 teams in the West region, that's your prerogative. But that's the only reason to have them in your top 10. For example, I'm pretty confident Martin Luther loses to Concordia, UWP, UWL, UWO, UST, Central, St. Olaf, to say nothing for the other ranked teams and unbeaten teams in the West. Martin Luther already lost to GAC in blowout fashion. So they are 7-1 in a terrible conference with an SOS of .444. There's a subjective element to this that undeniable. But published criteria should play some roll. I don't think you can ignore a H2H result that was that decisive and penalize GAC for losing two competitive games to teams that are drastically better than anyone Martin Luther has faced.

As for Lake Forest, they lost to an average U of Chicago team. And they have yet to play SNC and Monmouth. So they are hardly a likely Pool A team at this point. And their SOS is even worse than Martin Luther's at .342. 

Just my $.02 though 

[D O.C.]

Skipping the 'what have you done for me lately' straight to where the season will end, I'll put LINFIELD #2.
<< Based on what, Foo?>>

History repeating itself, 2009, 64 consecutive winning seasons. Things like that.

[smedindy]

The Regional Rankings are advised heavily by the criteria and they play a big role.

[DuffMan]

D O.C. - I thought Bluenote was crazy.  Did he pass you some of what he's smoking?