FB: Region 6 fan poll

[HansenRatings]

Yup...

Stout/Platteville - See if that St. Thomas game was a fluke.
Oshkosh/Whitewater - If UWW gets spanked, I think we're seeing an end of an era for the Hawks.
La Crosse/Point - Winner could be the 3rd best team in the WIAC.
Whitworth/Linfield - Good measuring stick for the Pirates
Coe/Wartburg - Winner is in the driver's seat for the IIAC title.

All big games in the West this weekend

I was looking through some of my numbers today, because I noticed that UWO is a 11.5-point favorite against UWW (seems high, but bear with me)

The last three times UWW was an underdog were all to Mount Union in Stagg Bowls.

The last time they were an underdog in the regular season was 2004 (twice). They won both games.

The last time they were a double-digit underdog in a WIAC contest was 2000.

Unless they right the ship quickly, it already feels like the end of an era.

Looking for the silver lining here. Maybe the underdog role fits UWW. How did UWW fare in those 3 underdog roles vs. Mt?
I assume one of the 3 underdog years was 2007 (one of greatest UWW wins of all time). What were the other years? I'll guess 2006 (L) and maybe 2010 (w injured QB issue).

If he's looking at the last three Stagg Bowls UWW was underdogs, my guess would be:

2013 - Missed the playoffs the year before and there were still doubters
2010 - Blanchard hurt
2009 - Mount beat UWW in 2008, and people thought 2007 was an anomaly (maybe?)

2014
Model Prediction (this was after UMU hung 70 on Wesley in the semis)
UMU 43.4 - UWW 21.9
Actual
UWW 43 - UMU 34

2013
Prediction
UMU 27.5 - UWW 26.5
Actual
UWW 52 - UMU 14

2011
UWW favored

2010 (remember UMU was on a backup QB too)
UWW favored

2009
Prediction
UMU 34.2 - UWW 25.3
Actual
UWW 38 - UMU 28

2008
Prediction
UMU 32.0 - UWW 27.1
Actual
UMU 31 - UWW 26

2007
Prediction
UMU 36.7 - UWW 19.8
Actual
UWW 31 - UMU 21

I specifically only mentioned the last three, because UWW won all three of them. They're 7-1 in the last 8 games in which they were an underdog, going back to those two WIAC games in 2004.

[emma17]

So you are saying there is a chance.

This is one of those "these teams know each other so well" games.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Apologies for the non-specific post, but I've got a general observation to make about the first couple weeks of the season, so I'm going to post this in each of the respective "fan poll" threads since they will typically get some readership from many different conferences / audiences (of course, within each thread, it can and likely will spawn some discussion specific to that region):

The first couple weeks of the season feel like we're seeing one of the more "wide open" seasons in D3 football in several years, IMHO.  It's not just about UWW losing a few games; all over the Division, we've seen signs that some leagues may not adhere to a traditional hierarchy. 

- Thomas More has already lost to two other conference rivals, turning the PAC into a potentially entertaining four-team horse race;

- Wabash had to scrap their way past an admittedly-improved Hiram team, leaving several NRFP voters believing that Denison and/or DePauw are the teams Wittenberg really needs to be worried about;

- Whitewater already has two losses on the board to "very good but not great; teams that you wouldn't normally expect them to lose to" opponents and travels to UW-Oshkosh this week facing the prospect of their earliest "likely elimination from playoff contention" since 2002;

- St. Thomas picked up an early loss to UW-Stout (?!) and now likely has to play the season under "win the MIAC or risk missing the playoffs" pressure;

- John Carroll, fresh off a season where they snapped Mount Union's forever-long OAC win streak and made an appearance in the national semifinals, took it on the chin from Heidelberg, leaving us wondering if maybe Heidelberg is the real "second banana" to challenge Mount this year rather than JCU

- Wesley, who has had as much success as any non-Purple (UMU, UWW, Linfield, UMHB, UST) in the last decade, took a loss in Week 1 - admittedly against a quality opponent, a much less surprising loss than Stout vs. UST - but, similarly to UST, likely will play the season under "win the league or you might be home for the holidays" pressure

I know there have been some early surprises in other seasons, too, but this just feels like a season that's elicited a lot more "Whoa! That happened?" reactions in the first few weeks than seasons past.  Instead of the inevitable slog to the playoffs where it feels like we already know who lots of the players will be, several leagues feel more open top-to-bottom than usual and we're seeing some fun teams getting votes in the poll who may or may not deserve to be there, but are sitting there currently lacking any other evidence that someone else is definitively better.  Raise your hand if you thought UW-Stout would appear in a D3fb top 25 this season.  Or if you thought Frostburg State would be ranked 11th in the same week UW-Whitewater is barely holding onto a few votes. 

It could be a wild second half, folks, and we're not even out of September.  Yee-haw!  High times for Division III football, if you ask me.

[emma17]

I love the uncertainty.
I only wish that Mt and UMHB would join the rest of D3 and look at least a little beatable.

[smedindy]

Mt. Union has had games where they're beatable, but like Tom Brady they always seem to come out ahead at the end....

[02 Warhawk]

Mt. Union has had games where they're beatable, but like Tom Brady they always seem to come out ahead at the end....

Right, but their competition isn't always the greatest to take advantage of a beatable Mount team. They usually aren't tested until deep in the playoffs (sometimes as late as the Stagg Bowl or Semi's), or that rare year when someone in the OAC actually fields a worthy team (like JCU last season). But it looks like this season the OAC (outside of Mount) is back to being "meh".

[D O.C.]

Nothing like being the 2016 pre-season #1 ranked team and then have MHB hang 62 on you to place a seed of doubt.

But then doubt leaves you so blind. Get up and try 'em again.
Oops! Smacked again.

It's a new season! Oops! Whacked again.

Nothing to do but win the conference and get up against 'em again.

[02 Warhawk]

   2017 Week 4 West Fan Poll

Rank      Team           Previous    Points   
1)   UW-Oshkosh (10)        1         100     
2)   St. Thomas             5          77   
3)   UW-Platteville         3          70   
4)   St. John's             2          66     
5)   Linfield               6          59     
6)   Concordia-Moorhead     4          58   
7)   Whitworth              7          45     
8)   UW-Stout               8          32     
9)   Wartburg               10         18   
10)  UW-Whitewater          N/A        12

Dropped Out: Coe

RV)  Redlands (4), UW-La Crosse (3), George Fox (2), Cal Lutheran (2), Lake Forest (1), Monmouth (1)


Thanks to those who participated this week: art76, wartnight, wm4, astro9046, doolittledog, desercat1, HansenRatings, TwoArmedScot, smedindy and 02 Warhawk.

[02 Warhawk]

 
1)  UW-Oshkosh (10)      100      ( 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2)  St. Thomas            77      ( 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 7)
3)  UW-Platteville        70      ( 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 8)
4)  St. John's            66      ( 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8)
5)  Linfield              59      ( 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 9,10)
6)  Concordia-Moorhead    58      ( 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7)
7)  Whitworth             45      ( 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8)
8)  UW-Stout              32      ( 4, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 9,10,10, -)
9)  Wartburg              18      ( 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9,10,10,10, -)
10) UW-Whitewater         12      ( 7, 8, 9, 9,10, -, -, -, -, -)

RV) Redlands               4      ( 7, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
RV) UW-La Crosse           3      ( 9,10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
RV) George Fox             2      ( 9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
RV) Cal Lutheran           2      ( 9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
RV) Lake Forest            1      (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
RV) Monmouth               1      (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

[02 Warhawk]

It's unanimous!! Oshkosh is good.

Also, as a group, we're unsure what to make of Linfield it seems (and Stout for that matter).

[HansenRatings]

Redlands > GFU? Didn't George Fox beat them?

[02 Warhawk]

True....and Stout beat St. Thomas as well.

[HansenRatings]

I can understand UST > UW-Stout more, because UST is more established than Redlands, has a win over another Top 10 team, and because Stout hasn't had the opportunity to play again since that game. George Fox's only loss was 2 points against another Top 10 West team, and then they spanked a WIAC team after beating Redlands. Redlands win over Trinity was impressive, but again, we haven't seen them play since their loss to GFU.

[02 Warhawk]

I can understand UST > UW-Stout more, because UST is more established than Redlands, has a win over another Top 10 team, and because Stout hasn't had the opportunity to play again since that game. George Fox's only loss was 2 points against another Top 10 West team, and then they spanked a WIAC team after beating Redlands. Redlands win over Trinity was impressive, but again, we haven't seen them play since their loss to GFU.

I agree, I was half joking. I had Stout ranked over St. Thomas, up until the St. John's game. Then once the Tommies won, I put them ahead of both Stout and the Johnnies. As for the Redlands and George Fox rankings, those two votes did come from the same voter. I'll let them come forward - if they want - and explain.

[smedindy]

Unlike the North fan poll, where the Top 5 is pretty much established (and not less than 6th on any one ballot), we have lots of uncertainty after Oshkosh. We've almost reached a state of entropy, where teams ranked so highly by one voter can be excluded by another.

This is messy, and will be for a while. The two weeks off for some teams also makes this a tough one to crack.