FB: Region 6 fan poll

[jamtod]

Fair point, but in a top 25 poll I'm guessing many had Wartburg highly over ranked - top 10 maybe. So when Wartburg lost they probably had a hard time justifying on dropping them so low that Central would enter their poll above Wartburg. In my top 25 I didn't have Wartburg that high, so I had no problem putting Central above them this week. In these Region Fall polls, when a H2H upset occurs, it's a little easier to drop the losing team below the winning team team (who wasn't ranked the week before) just because we're only dealing with 10 teams...rather than 25.


Where it gets tricky is when three solid teams all beat each other. For instance in the WIAC: UWL beat UWO, UWO beat UWP and UWP beat UWL. For this week I have UWP #8 and UWO and UWL not ranked. Reason being...UWP handily beat UWL by 18 and UWL smoked UWO by 28. I realize that UWP lost to UWO, but it was in the closing seconds of the game. Plus UWP played UWW tight while UWO hasn't faced UWW yet. Not saying my logic is correct, but that's how I tried separating one team from that pack.

In the top 25, I also suspect that some folks had Wartburg ranked but didn't have Central on the radar, so that conglomeration of data points keeps Wartburg ahead of Central.

As to the WIAC, I had to try to explain to a friend who went to Platteville why Lacross received more points (outside of the 25) than Platteville. I fumbled my way through some lame justifications.

[02 Warhawk]

Fair point, but in a top 25 poll I'm guessing many had Wartburg highly over ranked - top 10 maybe. So when Wartburg lost they probably had a hard time justifying on dropping them so low that Central would enter their poll above Wartburg. In my top 25 I didn't have Wartburg that high, so I had no problem putting Central above them this week. In these Region Fall polls, when a H2H upset occurs, it's a little easier to drop the losing team below the winning team team (who wasn't ranked the week before) just because we're only dealing with 10 teams...rather than 25.


Where it gets tricky is when three solid teams all beat each other. For instance in the WIAC: UWL beat UWO, UWO beat UWP and UWP beat UWL. For this week I have UWP #8 and UWO and UWL not ranked. Reason being...UWP handily beat UWL by 18 and UWL smoked UWO by 28. I realize that UWP lost to UWO, but it was in the closing seconds of the game. Plus UWP played UWW tight while UWO hasn't faced UWW yet. Not saying my logic is correct, but that's how I tried separating one team from that pack.

In the top 25, I also suspect that some folks had Wartburg ranked but didn't have Central on the radar, so that conglomeration of data points keeps Wartburg ahead of Central.

As to the WIAC, I had to try to explain to a friend who went to Platteville why Lacross received more points (outside of the 25) than Platteville. I fumbled my way through some lame justifications.

Yeah, and it seems people weigh recent games more than the games played earlier in the year. The UWP's loss is fresh on the voter's minds, even though UWP beat UWL by 3 TDs a month ago. A loss in October should count the same as a loss in November...but to each their own.

[jamtod]

Yeah, and it seems the more recent games are weighted more that games played earlier in the year. The UWP loss to UWO is fresh on the voters minds, even though UWP beat UWL by 3 TDs over a month ago. Each loss is the same, doesn't matter when it occurred...but to each their own.

I maybe agree, but it really depends on what the poll is hoping to achieve and poll voters aren't always aligned on that.

Is the poll intended to be purely based on resume? If so, then when the losses happen shouldn't matter, but a team with a loss could still have a case to be ranked above an undefeated team. How much do prior year results (and general feelings about strength of conferences) get factored in?

Is the poll intended to be based on who would win H2H? Then, a 2 or 3 loss team with a tough schedule might be ranked highly. St Thomas or the 2nd tier of the WIAC, for example. It's also possible this won't be reflective of actual H2H results, as other data might suggest that that H2H result was abnormal (SJU-Concordia, UST-Eau Claire, Wartburg-Central?)

Often the poll ends up being a hybrid mixture.

[02 Warhawk]

Yeah, and it seems the more recent games are weighted more that games played earlier in the year. The UWP loss to UWO is fresh on the voters minds, even though UWP beat UWL by 3 TDs over a month ago. Each loss is the same, doesn't matter when it occurred...but to each their own.

I maybe agree, but it really depends on what the poll is hoping to achieve and poll voters aren't always aligned on that.

Is the poll intended to be purely based on resume? If so, then when the losses happen shouldn't matter, but a team with a loss could still have a case to be ranked above an undefeated team. How much do prior year results (and general feelings about strength of conferences) get factored in?

Is the poll intended to be based on who would win H2H? Then, a 2 or 3 loss team with a tough schedule might be ranked highly. St Thomas or the 2nd tier of the WIAC, for example. It's also possible this won't be reflective of actual H2H results, as other data might suggest that that H2H result was abnormal (SJU-Concordia, UST-Eau Claire, Wartburg-Central?)

Often the poll ends up being a hybrid mixture.

Exactly, it all depends. Using H2H data whenever possible, I try to rank my teams in order on who could beat who on a neutral field. So I think my #1 team can beat the #2 team, my #2 team can beat the #3 team, and so on.

[wm4]

Fair point, but in a top 25 poll I'm guessing many had Wartburg highly over ranked - top 10 maybe. So when Wartburg lost they probably had a hard time justifying on dropping them so low that Central would enter their poll above Wartburg. In my top 25 I didn't have Wartburg that high, so I had no problem putting Central above them this week. In these Region Fall polls, when a H2H upset occurs, it's a little easier to drop the losing team below the winning team team (who wasn't ranked the week before) just because we're only dealing with 10 teams...rather than 25.


Where it gets tricky is when three solid teams all beat each other. For instance in the WIAC: UWL beat UWO, UWO beat UWP and UWP beat UWL. For this week I have UWP #8 and UWO and UWL not ranked. Reason being...UWP handily beat UWL by 18 and UWL smoked UWO by 28. I realize that UWP lost to UWO, but it was in the closing seconds of the game. Plus UWP played UWW tight while UWO hasn't faced UWW yet. Not saying my logic is correct, but that's how I tried separating one team from that pack.

In the top 25, I also suspect that some folks had Wartburg ranked but didn't have Central on the radar, so that conglomeration of data points keeps Wartburg ahead of Central.

As to the WIAC, I had to try to explain to a friend who went to Platteville why Lacross received more points (outside of the 25) than Platteville. I fumbled my way through some lame justifications.

The new term is UW-LaPlatteKosh

[smedindy]

It was me. Yes, Wartburg lost to Central....in OT...on the road. Central lost to Dubuque. Wartburg handled Dubuque with ease.  I count those results greater than the one-point OT game.

[jamtod]

It was me. Yes, Wartburg lost to Central....in OT...on the road. Central lost to Dubuque. Wartburg handled Dubuque with ease.  I count those results greater than the one-point OT game.

Nailed it.

[D O.C.]

Formatting not my forte
Polls Schmolls
2009 football season....

Preseason            
            
1   Mount Union (23)   15-0   623   1
2   UW-Whitewater (2)   13-2   602   2
3   Mary Hardin-Baylor   12-2   560   3
4   North Central (Ill.)   11-1   497   9
5   Hardin-Simmons   9-2   459   7
6   Wheaton (Ill.)   11-3   456   5
7   UW-Stevens Point   9-2   426   14
8   Willamette   11-1   406   4
9   Wesley   9-2   355   13
10   Ithaca   9-2   268   23
11   Cortland State   11-2   260   6
12   Monmouth   11-1   255   16
13   St. John's   8-3   245   --
14   Washington and Jefferson   11-2   219   11
15   Hobart   9-2   199   17
16   Case Western Reserve   10-1   197   21
17   Wartburg   10-3   196   10
18   Wabash   10-2   194   18
19   Franklin   11-2   182   8
20   Christopher Newport   8-2   168   --
21   Montclair State   8-3   158   --
22   St. Thomas   7-3   124   --
23   Occidental   9-1   122   15
24   Otterbein   9-2   121   19
25   DePauw   8-2   98   --

Week 4
After wins over Hardin Simmons, Occidental, and NAIA Southern Oregon.
1   Mount Union (23)   3-0   623   1
2   UW-Whitewater (2)   3-0   600   2
3   Mary Hardin-Baylor   3-0   576   3
4   Wheaton (Ill.)   3-0   524   4
5   Wesley   4-0   523   5
6   St. John's   4-0   482   6
7   Washington and Jefferson   4-0   396   8
8   Linfield   3-0   380   13

Week 9

After NWC title.               
         

1   Mount Union (19)   8-0   619   1
2   UW-Whitewater (6)   8-0   606   2
3   Wesley   8-0   565   3
4   St. John's   8-0   525   4
5   Linfield   8-0   520   5
            
            
            
            
            

Week 11

After playoff wins over                                                                                                                                                 California Lutheran                                                                                                                                           Mary Hardin Baylor
St.Thomas

Loss to UW Whitewater

1   UW-Whitewater (25)   15-0   625   2
2   Mount Union   14-1   600   1
3   Linfield
   12-1   569   5
            

[George Thompson]

After NWC title.               
   
1   Mount Union (19)   8-0   619   1
2   UW-Whitewater (6)   8-0   606   2
3   Wesley   8-0   565   3
4   St. John's   8-0   525   4
5   Linfield   8-0   520   5
            

DOC,
I would love to agree, but can't.    Linfield is a top 20, probably Top 15, but that is it.    They have a good chance to win first two rounds.     But, I don't see them past that.     Especially since no games will be at home.     And, of course, that have one more regular season game to win.     George Fox must not be overlooked.       Probably the best four loss team in the nation.

GT

[Hemingway13]

Oshkosh upset Whitewater 27-20. West region playoff bracketology is now all the more mystifying. Whitewater QB had a very ordinary night. If that's his quality of play, the well-coached Chapman Panthers have a real good chance of getting a rare SCIAC playoff victory.


My alma mater, Redlands, looks likely to receive a bid, but we'll lose first round as usual. The culture of the Bulldogs is such that we invariably commit way more silly penalties than our opponents do, with multiple unsportsmanlike flags being our specialty. I'm not saying we're a dirty team, but others might think so.


Redlands hasn't had a 9 win season in decades, so I'm mucho happy with this relatively young squad which will return about 2/3 of starters, including QB, RB's and best WR's.

[02 Warhawk]

Still waiting on one more entry. I'll post the results this afternoon, regardless.

[02 Warhawk]

        2019 Week 11 West Region Fan Poll

Rank      Team           Previous    Points       
1)   St. John's (4)        2          74 
2)   Chapman (2)          t3          71       
3)   UW-Whitewater (2)     1          64
4)   Redlands              5          53
5)   St. Thomas            6          40
6)   UW-Oshkosh           10          38
7)   Linfield              8          29   
8)   Central               7          26
9)   Wartburg              9          22 
10)   Bethel               t3          20
   
Dropped Out: N/A

RV)   UW-LaCrosse (3)

Thanks to those who participated this week: 02 Warhawk, wm4, WW, art76, doolittledog, smedindy, desertcat1 and wartnight.

[02 Warhawk]

 
1)  St. John's (4)        74      ( 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4)
2)  Chapman (2)           71      ( 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3)
3)  UW-Whitewater (2)     64      ( 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6)
4)  Redlands              53      ( 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6)
5)  St. Thomas            40      ( 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 8, 9,10)
6)  UW-Oshkosh            38      ( 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 9)
7)  Linfield              29      ( 3, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9,10)   
8)  Central               26      ( 5, 7, 7, 7, 7, 9,10,10)
9)  Wartburg              22      ( 6, 6, 8, 8, 8, 9,10, -)
10)  Bethel                20      ( 4, 7, 9, 9, 9,10,10,10)

RV)  UW-LaCrosse            3      ( 8, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

[Retired Old Rat]

Chapman ahead of WW?  I don't think so.

[art76]

Wow - did the bell curve ever get flattened! Parity abounded, and thise of us that are voters obviously saw things in teams that their fellow voters did not.