2014 NCAA Tournament

gobash83 · November 14, 2014, 03:31:57 PM

Well, the first game of the tournament has already provided a surprise, with Hope knocking off host #4 Wheaton 1-0 in the 105th minute. While there was a wide disparity in shots taken (35 for Wheaton and 16 for Hope), the number of shots on target were much closer (14 for Wheaton and 10 for Hope). Congratulations to Hope, who faces the winner of the Ill. Wesleyan v. Dubuque matchup later this afternoon.

CrusaderNation · November 14, 2014, 07:38:30 PM

Wow... what an upset! That is one of the magical things about tournament time... it is a one game season six times and anything can happen! Hopefully it will for the Crusaders too!

gobash83 · November 15, 2014, 08:25:07 PM

Some more upsets today so far, with #11 Washington U, #13 Emory, and #23 UW-Whitewater all losing. Tough day for the UAA!

CrusaderNation · November 15, 2014, 08:45:49 PM

Never fear.... although they are all out of the tournament they will all be rewarded with a Final National Ranking... that is the way the DIII Ranking world works!

woacfan · November 15, 2014, 11:05:19 PM

Quote from: gobash83 on November 15, 2014, 08:25:07 PM
Some more upsets today so far, with #11 Washington U, #13 Emory, and #23 UW-Whitewater all losing. Tough day for the UAA!

UAA is probably the most interesting conference in DIII. It is essentially all large schools spread across the East and Midwest. Each school has a huge recruiting base. Every year, UAA schools get a lot of attention from the folks that do the rankings. They've had a number of runners up, but haven't fielded a National Champion since the University of Rochester won the Title in 1987. I remember watching the Capital game against Washington U. last year and the announcer was in utter disbelief until the final moment of the game.

I could go on about how neither the NCAA ranking system nor the supposed computer analytic ranking models are accurate (both favor "insiders" by giving disproportionate weight to wins over other "insider" programs), but in the end, the only real result is how deep you run in the tourney.

Messiah and Wheaton have been the two dominant powers since 2000. Both are smaller schools committed to excellence in the sport.

I'm cheering for Capital, but if they stumble I'll start pulling for Lynchburg. They've had quite a year and look to me as deserving as anyone in the UAA or NESAC.

jaybird44 · November 16, 2014, 01:09:43 AM

My friend, I'm not the only one in collegiate soccer circles who was in utter disbelief regarding the outcome of that Capital-WashU game. Not by a long shot

CrusaderNation · November 16, 2014, 07:37:37 AM

That is the beauty of sports! Including Gettysburg yesterday that makes four nationally ranked programs the unranked Crusaders have dispatched in the last two tournament.

Maybe, just maybe, they focus their team efforts and importance on the tourney rather than the regular season .... so that lets them "upset" all the teams who are better than them?

By the way this year they start five freshman and two sophomore. ... wonder what's ahead?

woacfan · November 16, 2014, 08:28:50 AM

Quote from: jaybird44 on November 16, 2014, 01:09:43 AM
My friend, I'm not the only one in collegiate soccer circles who was in utter disbelief regarding the outcome of that Capital-WashU game. Not by a long shot

One more comment on this thread. I hope Capital wins today, but I think Messiah will be a tall order for them. Last year, however, they deserved their deep run. Then, when the awards came out, they largely were overlooked. When the final rankings came out, they were largely overlooked. Their win over Wash. was not against the run of play. There were portions of the game when Wash looked better, but there were also times when Cap. had the run of play.

So, to say there were many "in collegiate soccer circles who [were] in utter disbelief" confirms the point I was making; i.e. insiders look to insiders. This year, as almost every year, there will be a number of non-insider programs who will make it deep into the tourney. Its just they won't be rewarded with awards or rankings. So, as I said yesterday, their reward will be the deep run in the tournament.

WUPHF · November 16, 2014, 12:07:30 PM

Quote from: woacfan on November 16, 2014, 08:28:50 AMI hope Capital wins today, but I think Messiah will be a tall order for them. Last year, however, they deserved their deep run. Then, when the awards came out, they largely were overlooked. When the final rankings came out, they were largely overlooked. Their win over Wash. was not against the run of play. There were portions of the game when Wash looked better, but there were also times when Cap. had the run of play.

I was at that game, but maybe I am remembering another game.

I expect quarterfinal games to be competitive even when the No. 1 team is involved. But the Bears were the better team that day. Capital did not win on the run of play. Capital won in penalties.

Again, maybe I am remembering another game, but when I look at the stats, for example, Capital had 8 shots (6 on frame) while Washington University had 38 (20 on frame). Capital had 19 saves compared to 5 for Washington University.

WUSTL would have advanced if the games were determined by play overall. Thankfully that is not the case. Capital deserved to advance because they scored the most goals.

As far as the UAA is concerned, most of the UAA schools are medium sized with approximately 4,000-6,000 undergraduates each with NYU being the outlier with +10,000. The notion that they have an advantage in recruiting is not unique to the UAA. The NESCAC and WIAC, for example, hear the same thing.

The UAA does play a non-conference slate just like everyone else in Division III and they play more than just other insiders. And, they do still have three teams advancing to play today.

mmccrr · November 16, 2014, 02:20:52 PM

I second WUH!
I also watched Capital v Wash and was in disbelief as well. Wash was the better team top to bottom player for player. Any one who watched knew and the box score doesn't lie. Its also considered a Tie and not a Win... so they tied 2 UAA teams ( Chicago and Wash) last year in the NCAAs they did not win.

Advancing on PKs is cruel...but the rules. Capital advanced rightfully so.

woacfan · November 16, 2014, 08:32:21 PM

I am afraid I've started the wrong argument. I really am not trying to run down Washington, the UAA or any other conference or program. Rather, I was offering a comment on the ranking system that favors "insiders" over outsiders. I'm not even certain how I would see it improved. I suggested Capital as an example last year because despite making it to semis they didn't get a whole lot of respect.
Even if you are of the mindset that Washington was far superior, then at least respect the Cap keeper who kept them in the game.

CrusaderNation · November 16, 2014, 08:58:09 PM

Well mmccrr.... thnk you for showing your depth of knowledge! First the Crusaders beat Chicago scoring on a corner kick, it was not a tie, they DEFEATED THEM! Second, for WUH, even if you read the story on the Wash U website it clearly states the Crusaders came out after the half and had a run of play including earning corner kicks and the set piece they scored on. Anyone who looks at the quotes after the game, or watched the coaches interview, is aware that Capital never claimed to be better player for player. In fact, they said if they played ten times Wash U would probably win nine... however... the Crusaders did score in regulation to even the game and send it to overtime. They then proceeded to take the PK shootout on the same field that had not seen Washington fail to advance in many years! That is what sports are all about..... imagine if those piss poor American College Hockey Players in the 80 Olympics only went by the box score.... We all know the Russians were better so why not just give them the Gold Medal?

Your comments trying to belittle the tremendous team effort that allowed Capital to knock off nationally ranked Chicago, UW-Whitewater, Thomas More and then eliminate Wash U on PK's is the type of closed minded and short sighted comments that are exactly why people believe there are the Division III "Insiders" and then everyone else. Soccer is a game that is not decided by box scores and although they don't lie they also don't tell the whole story. For instance do 30 shots on goal but only scoring 1 goal tell the story that Wash U needs to work on finishing? Does the fact Capital only took 8 shots and put 5 of them on goal, scoring one, mean they are better at finishing than Wash U or take better percentage shots? Does the fact that Capital ran a great set piece and scored a goal in regulation mean that Wash U was outcoached? Does the fact that Wash U was outscored in pk's mean their players are not strong enough mentally to have beaten a scrappy nobody? Of course not. But, but to not acknowledge that there is more in the soccer world than your limited vision of the game is ridiculous.

Soccer is a game of teams and teams have stories and stories are powerful motivating factors. Read all the box scores you want and in the end the team dedicated to each other, with a coaching staff who knows the right buttons to push at the right times, and whose willing to do everything that needs to be done to win, will win more than they will lose.

WUPHF · November 16, 2014, 11:13:38 PM

Quote from: woacfan on November 16, 2014, 08:32:21 PMI really am not trying to run down Washington, the UAA or any other conference or program.

But, that is how it sounds to me.

If I wanted to take this conversation further, I would ask you to explain how Lynchburg is an outsider program that has not be awarded all due respect. The Lynchburg squad that is ranked No. 1 in D3soccer.com, Massey Ratings, and the NCAA regional rankings. If you could answer that, then I would have really enjoyed hearing how Wheaton is an outsider program.

No need to answer.

WUPHF · November 16, 2014, 11:30:22 PM

Quote from: CrusaderNation on November 16, 2014, 08:58:09 PM
Your comments trying to belittle the tremendous team effort that allowed Capital to knock off nationally ranked Chicago, UW-Whitewater, Thomas More and then eliminate Wash U on PK's is the type of closed minded and short sighted comments that are exactly why people believe there are the Division III "Insiders" and then everyone else. Soccer is a game that is not decided by box scores and although they don't lie they also don't tell the whole story. For instance do 30 shots on goal but only scoring 1 goal tell the story that Wash U needs to work on finishing? Does the fact Capital only took 8 shots and put 5 of them on goal, scoring one, mean they are better at finishing than Wash U or take better percentage shots? Does the fact that Capital ran a great set piece and scored a goal in regulation mean that Wash U was outcoached? Does the fact that Wash U was outscored in pk's mean their players are not strong enough mentally to have beaten a scrappy nobody? Of course not. But, but to not acknowledge that there is more in the soccer world than your limited vision of the game is ridiculous.

Soccer is a game of teams and teams have stories and stories are powerful motivating factors. Read all the box scores you want and in the end the team dedicated to each other, with a coaching staff who knows the right buttons to push at the right times, and whose willing to do everything that needs to be done to win, will win more than they will lose.

I am not sure what to do with this.

I had no idea that I was not allowed to cite a few statistics without a two paragraph disclaimer about how statistics don't tell the whole story. Clearly, because I chose to include a few statistics, I know next to nothing about the game.

I am not sure you actually read my post, but maybe after the pain and heartache of the 5-1 loss to Messiah wears off, you can go back and read it again.

CrusaderNation · November 17, 2014, 08:20:17 AM

What I said was the game is not dictated by "statistics" and pointed out how those "statistics" can be interpreted.... none of which truly mean anything when it comes to the result. Your assumption that Wash U was the better team on the day is your opinion (mine is they had better players but were not the better team) and that because Capital did not advance in the run of the game implies they somehow magically appeared in pk's against the far superior team. It is a backhanded compliment that the complete team effort and unity that they played with to score in regulation sending it to OT and then to score more goals in pks to win is lessened because it did not happen in 90 minutes.

... and to be clear the sting of a Regional Final loss at Messiah has nothing to do with last year or an arrogance that your view of the game is the view of the game, but, as one of the last 32 teams standing of the 427 in DIII we will take the sting and relish it's significance!