Barclays Premier League Pick Em

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Sunderland  0 - Man U  1
Bournemouth  2 - Stoke  1
Crystal Palace  0 - Watford  0
Everton  3 - West Brom  1
Norwich  0 - West Ham  2
Swansea  1 - Southampton  1
Chelsea  2 - Newcastle  1
Arsenal  0 - Leicester  1
Aston Villa  1 - Liverpool  2
Man City  1 - Spurs  2                    GOW

[firstplaceloser]

it seems as though Chelsea decided to show up today

[Mr.Right]

Yes....Surprising to me Chelsea and Liverpool looked good...Got out some nice W's with Watford(luckily), Stoke and Norwich v West Ham Draw(also very lucky)....Then I gave it all back yesterday with Championship game going with Boro to win outright at Leeds....Oh well...What are people thinking about today's 2 Champions League games?  I have not seen PSG much this year at all and have not seen benfica or Zenit at all...Thoughts?

[NJrexSoccer03]

Yes....Surprising to me Chelsea and Liverpool looked good...Got out some nice W's with Watford(luckily), Stoke and Norwich v West Ham Draw(also very lucky)....Then I gave it all back yesterday with Championship game going with Boro to win outright at Leeds....Oh well...What are people thinking about today's 2 Champions League games?  I have not seen PSG much this year at all and have not seen benfica or Zenit at all...Thoughts?

Took home winners with Liverpool game and Southampton game. Gave almost all of it back with the Boro game just like you.

I'm taking Chelsea +1 (-125) and at worse get a push. John Terry missing this game has me concerned a little defensively. In order for Chelsea to advance though they need to put one in the back of the net(Costa with the 80th minute goal) and only lose by 1. I think I've gone mad riding Chelsea but I'll give them a shot.

I'm going with Benfica in the second game. Zenit hasn't played in over 2 months. If it was a home game for Zenit I may think differently. The real question is whether Andre Villas Boas can take a team who I believe has never won(maybe never played) a Champions League Knockout Match(exclude round robin) and show up against a good side in Benfica.

Last Guy?

[Mr.Right]

I am concerned Chelsea at +1 -125 might look to good to be true but I was quite shocked to see it. You would think they would be +1/2 -120. My issue is out of the 4 teams playing today I have really only consistently seen Chelsea. PSG is notoriously very good at home but my gut say's that MANY people would also take Chelsea at those odds even w/o Terry which btw could be a plus if PSG has team speed. I will say I will pass on this game just because ALL YEAR we never know what Chelsea team is going to show up. Seems like Guus has them believing and you would figure this is all they are playing for now is the Champions league. Both games IMO is a toss up and I wish I had been paying more attention to Benfica as I am confused WHY they are a Pick em at -200...Seems like its to good to be true as they can at LEAST get a draw at Home and if they won it would be a BONUS.

[lastguyoffthebench]

PSG all day.  The injuries to JT and Zouma in the back will hurt the Blues...  A team that's 4-6-5 on on the road in the BPL/UCL this year...  Chelsea let up 2 goals vs WBA, 3 vs Everton, 1 vs a Man Utd team who is terrible going forward... They could not break down Watford and had a gift with Arsenal down to 10 early...

PSG had a 16 or 17 game win streak before resting some players this weekend to focus on this UCL clash.

If by some act of God, Chelsea scores first (restart likely), I'd expect a 1-1/2-1 game in favor of PSG.   If PSG scores first I expect a 2-0 or 3-1 result...

Money has been flowing in on PSG because I think they were -120 to open.... and now sitting at -160.   PSG did open at -.5 as well...  With that being said, I'll ride with 300 wings on PSG -160, and 100 wings on PSG -1 +108.

50 wings on Chelsea at 20/1 odds is worthwhile for the value alone...
100 wings on PSG is 12/1 to win and also worth a small investment...


I think Bayern wins this year, but there is no value at 2.5 to 1.       Barca was 5/1 last year and a gift in terms of odds/value...

[NJrexSoccer03]

So I got bored and wrote this through the entire first half. Here are my thoughts as the game was going on.

PSG has about 75% of the possession and looks dangerous in the attacking half but nothing of real substance to test Courtois. I missed the first 5 minutes but not really any great chances except a free kick from PSG that I remember. Chelsea probably had the best chance around the 23rd minute when they strung together about 20 passes and Costa had his point blank header pushed over the bar. The game opened up a little after Costa's chance. I think this favors PSG. I'd like to see Chelsea call on their inner Leicester, sit in and hope Costa can create some magic on his own or get a set piece that they score off of. Ibrahomovic had a good chance with a header in the 33 minute that he needed to do much better on. Chelsea get unlucky on the free kick in the 40th. A poor free kick(maybe bad choice of words since he might have been attempting to use the slick turf to skid one on net) that gets deflected off the corner of the wall and in. I don't know who was on the corner of the wall but he sure didn't jump straight.  Chelsea needs to get 10 guys behind the ball quickly or its just a matter of time until PSG puts another one in. Chelsea with an equalizer in stoppage time and its about the only way I see Chelsea scoring. That goal could be huge if they can hang on for dear life for 45 minutes.

If Chelsea gets out of here with a tie or losing 2-1 they should be extremely happy.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Loftus-Cheek should be coming in for Cesc soon and Chelsea will be locking up this DRAW...   The struggle to pick winners continues...

[Mr.Right]

Courtois just took one in the nuts to get out of this game no worse for the wear and the PUSH NJRex. It was worth it IMO

[Mr.Right]

Ugh...Why didnt I do that Benfica pick....Stupid Stupid...

[NJrexSoccer03]

Picked up the push with Chelsea and the win with Benfica. When I have time later I'll try to give thoughts on this afternoon's games.
Anyone know anything about Gent or Wolfsburg?

[lastguyoffthebench]

I'm thinking Roma +0.5 +110 and this is just based on Madrid's injuries and history on the road in the UCL.  I think they can manage the game and hang for a 1-1.   Probably play a 3-5-2 that's more or less a 5-3-2...  Thoughts?

Staying away from Wolfsburg although I'd lean to take them as a PK -114.

Barca -2.5 at Sporting Gijon starts at 12:30...  Sporting has only lost by 2+ at home once this season to Levante...  Recently beat Valencia on the road, but Barca is rolling out with a strong XI... Looking like a 4-1, 3-0 game here.

[lastguyoffthebench]

MASSEY RATINGS PREDICTIONS
Real Madrid 2, Roma 2
Real Madrid 49% to win, Roma 29% to win

Wolfsburg 1, Gent 1
Gent 43% to win, Wolfsburg 27% to win

[NJrexSoccer03]

I liked Wolfsburg in the PickEm although I didn't take them. I did however pick Madrid to come out on top. With all their injuries Zidane should take the suit off and show them how to run that mid field or head butt someone atleast. Sorry had to get that one in there.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Wolfsburg moved from the PK to -0.5.   At that point I just decided to stay away...   3 away goals, they've already punched their ticket at this point.