2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[lastguyoffthebench]

York could be stealing an at large bid if they win the CAC.   Definitely within reach as crazier things have happened.

[blooter442]

The tie obviously helped MIT more than it helped Brandeis but you also have to remember Brandeis turned around and got a 2-1 away win at then #16 Case Western this week as well. That must have been why there was not a drastic drop after a second blemish on their record. Ties are an interesting result as it gives both the team 1/2 the points in their win percentage and barley changes either teams SOS or record. NSCAA doesn't seem too worried about SOS in their regional rankings and are more concerned at overall record. See the New England Rankings as an example

Good point, I didn't realize that Case was in the top 20. A second away win at a nationally-ranked opponent for the Judges. They struggled against Mass. Maritime tonight, 1-0, but to be fair to the Judges the visitors showed no ambition and put 10 behind the ball pretty much the whole game so were tough to break down. Chicago and WashU will be good tests this weekend, and will give an excellent indication of where they really are.

You're correct that NSCAA doesn't really seem worried about SOS. That is one thing that bothers me and - me being relatively new (~5 years) to D3 soccer in particular - FW made clear earlier today that there are still some rigid protocols in place in determining rankings. But that's for another post.

[ECSUalum]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

[PaulNewman]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

Very true re: Salisbury, but how does the "new Salisbury," Carnegie Mellon, get voted in at #12 in the D3 poll, and, probably correctly, not even be in the RV category in the NSCAA poll?  I wouldn't have Carthage in either, but they are 4-0 or 5-0 in their conference and just beat Wheaton (Ill).

[ECSUalum]

Maybe I'll just shut up on the polls and let the season play out!!  But sometimes this far into the season you have to start to wonder a little why more deserving teams don't get a little love, or why some teams can have all types of blemishes and still hold rank!

[Wisco21]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

Very true re: Salisbury, but how does the "new Salisbury," Carnegie Mellon, get voted in at #12 in the D3 poll, and, probably correctly, not even be in the RV category in the NSCAA poll?  I wouldn't have Carthage in either, but they are 4-0 or 5-0 in their conference and just beat Wheaton (Ill).

Getting a little sloppy NCAC, Carthage is 2-0 in conference with wins over North Central (Ill.) and Illinois Wesleyan . They play Wheaton (Ill.) tomorrow. I don't know how or why Carthage is even being considered in the national rankings over some other teams, only results I see worth mentioning is a 2-1 victory over Wash U and a 1-1 draw with UChicago. Can only see them being CCIW AQ or bust, 5 blemishes is pushing it a little for Pool C.

[PaulNewman]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

Very true re: Salisbury, but how does the "new Salisbury," Carnegie Mellon, get voted in at #12 in the D3 poll, and, probably correctly, not even be in the RV category in the NSCAA poll?  I wouldn't have Carthage in either, but they are 4-0 or 5-0 in their conference and just beat Wheaton (Ill).

Getting a little sloppy NCAC, Carthage is 2-0 in conference with wins over North Central (Ill.) and Illinois Wesleyan . They play Wheaton (Ill.) tomorrow. I don't know how or why Carthage is even being considered in the national rankings over some other teams, only results I see worth mentioning is a 2-1 victory over Wash U and a 1-1 draw with UChicago. Can only see them being CCIW AQ or bust, 5 blemishes is pushing it a little for Pool C.

You're right, Wisco.  I knew someone beat Wheaton that was unexpected so when I saw the ranking I assumed I had read Carthage.  Got to be more vigilant.  Hopefully the love for the UWs will buy me at least another week to redeem myself.

[TennesseeJed]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

Very true re: Salisbury, but how does the "new Salisbury," Carnegie Mellon, get voted in at #12 in the D3 poll, and, probably correctly, not even be in the RV category in the NSCAA poll?  I wouldn't have Carthage in either, but they are 4-0 or 5-0 in their conference and just beat Wheaton (Ill).

CMU at #12 in the D3 poll was the biggest surprise for me in the two polls today.  The Brandeis loss definitely hurt Case, as the Oberlin tie might have as well, but I'd take case over cmu in a head to head game. Kudos to CMU for the W, but a 1-0 result vs nyu wasn't a great showing at home for the Tartans in my book.  I would also have Tufts in my top 25, where I thought the d3 poll was more in line with my own ranking but after reading FW's fascinating comments on the NSCAA methodology, I think I now understand why Tufts would be less likely to be a top 25 team in NSCAA.

FW, thanks for shedding some light into the NSCAA rankings. Disappointed to learn some of the shortcomings in process/methodology but glad to have the perspective.  Definitely makes some things about the coaches polls and rankings that didn't always make sense a bit easier to understand. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

York could be stealing an at large bid if they win the CAC.   Definitely within reach as crazier things have happened.

It could happen but I doubt it will. Realistically they need 2 wins to clinch a playoff spot which would put them at 16 points and all but guarantee them in the top 6. With 2 of their remaining games against Marymount and Southern Virginia I can't see them not making playoffs. Once they are in anything can happen, but I think (depending on how the seeding shapes up) that having to go through 2 of he big 3 in Frostburg, Newport, and Salisbury will be too much for the Spartans.

CNU was the #5 seed last year in the CAC at 4-2-3 (15pts) and won the conference playoff. Overall record of 19-3-5 and ended up losing in the Elite 8. They have yet to lose this year through 13 games and all though the tie by York is a great result, I don't see them knocking CNU off come playoff time.

But as you said, crazier things have happened!!!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

I agree with you 100%! I mentioned in another topic forum about "How the heck is Salisbury ranked?!?!?!" And Carthage being ranked is a joke. If you have a 4 loss team in at this point it better be someone like the above teams mentioned. Those were my 2 frustrations this week. CMU is ranked a little high but the same could be said around the board for team X and team Y etc.

[Nutmeg]

National Poll for 10/13

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4643

Other than maybe their win vs Rutgers-Camden how does Salisbury make the NSCAA poll?  Carthage as well with 4 losses!!  The teams in the D3 poll with 3 losses, Oneonta, Loras, Tufts and Messiah, (none with 4 losses) are all legit IMHO

That's crazy.....
I agree with you 100%! I mentioned in another topic forum about "How the heck is Salisbury ranked?!?!?!" And Carthage being ranked is a joke. If you have a 4 loss team in at this point it better be someone like the above teams mentioned. Those were my 2 frustrations this week. CMU is ranked a little high but the same could be said around the board for team X and team Y etc.

[PaulNewman]

Good game going at Kenyon with Oberlin.  0-0 at half.  Kenyon could be up 3-0 but then again Oberlin could be up 2-0.  Kenyon is pressuring high and mostly dominating possession, spending a minute or more on attack in the Oberlin half, pushing everyone forward but that is leaving a lot of space for Oberlin on the counter and Oberlin easily could be ahead.  Oberlin more athletic than in the past and to their credit able to hang with Kenyon without packing in.  Oberlin also skilled and plays a nice possession style when they can get a hold of the ball.  Kenyon's style is tough when they don't score and get ahead.  They're expending so much energy pressing and on the offensive end that they look vulnerable after they lose the ball.  Will be interesting second half, especially if the Lords don't score early or if Oberlin scores first.  Both GKs have been forced to make some good saves, with Oberlin GK forced to make a few more.

[Flying Weasel]

Messiah, trailing 1-0 to a second-half Lycoming goal, is looking about as good as Lycoming's free non-HD video stream.  By the excitement level of the announcers voice, Lycoming could have scored three already in the second half (hard to judge for myself given the poor video quality).  One off the crossbar, I think.  One cleared off the line, I think.

[TennesseeJed]

Kenyon 1-0 Final vs. Oberlin.  Kenyon dominated most of 1H, outshooting Yeomen almost 4-1 through 2/3 of the first half.  Yeomen came on much more strongly at end of half, making some credible attacks but unable to convert.  Lords entered 2H strongly, but Oberlin team showed real determination in 2H to even the score after a Lords go ahead goal by Amolo.  Yeomen stronger in 2h than 1h and pretty even w/ Lords in attacks and possession but not able to match Lords on shots.  1-0 final.  Agree w/ NCACNE.  Could have been higher scoring game on both sides.  Would like to have seen Lords convert one or two more, but congrats on the W.  Star of game IMO was the Yeomen's freshman GK who made some fantastic saves in both halves.  Oberlin goes to 7-5-1.  Kenyon 10-1-0.

Meanwhile, Wabash and Denison battling to a 0-0 draw at end of regulation play heading into OT.

[Flying Weasel]

Messiah down 2-0 with 10 to play.  Well, if it wasn't already off the table, a loss today certainly removes all chance of an at-large berth.  This was the only remaining chance for a win versus a potentially ranked team (of course, the catch-22 being that a win would have reduced the chances Lycoming is ranked).  Conference champs or bust at this point.

UPDATE: It's a final from Williamsport, PA.  Lycoming 2, Messiah 0.