2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

TennesseeJed · October 21, 2015, 01:54:32 PM

Quote from: Mr.Right on October 21, 2015, 01:51:34 PM
I am absolutely dumbfounded by some of these.....I can count 2 Handfuls that MAKE NO SENSE

+1. I could not agree with you more strongly.

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 01:56:12 PM

D3soccer.com has the rankings up now as well.

Ryan Harmanis · October 21, 2015, 02:06:30 PM

Great Lakes is certainly not what I expected, especially because it doesn't even count OWU's win over DePauw. My best guess is that without being able to use record vs ranked, strength of schedule is just a huge, huge factor. That would explain the difference between OWU (1st, .564), DePauw (2nd, .544), and Denison (3rd, .578) as compared to Thomas More (5th, .516), Case (6th, .523), and Kenyon (7th, .494) - especially when you'd have those bottom three ahead of the top three before last night's games. In that regard, the Case-Kenyon game being cancelled has been costly for both teams, but particularly for Kenyon, whose SOS just looks awful right now.

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 02:12:00 PM

Messiah's SOS is given as .624 in the data sheet! WOW! That's very high . . . and very hard to beleive. I thought someone had computed their OWP and found it to be rather low which matches the general impression of their schedule this season. If that proves to be accurate (I'm haveing a hard time believing it is), their Pool C chances may be better than originally thought, but without a win or any ties versus ranked opponents, still slim.

PaulNewman · October 21, 2015, 02:19:26 PM

Whitworth not even ranked!

PaulNewman · October 21, 2015, 02:42:24 PM

This must have been let the externs take a crack at things week at NCAA HQ. So absurd can't even get upset about it.

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 02:42:54 PM

Whitworth: .468 SOS

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 02:48:06 PM

As Mr. Right and myself keep harping on, SOS and results vs. ranked opponents are the best predictors. And while the NCAA denied that there's a .500 SOS threshhold for ranking and selection, I'm not holding my breathe until I see a ranked team with a sub .500 SOS.

I'd be curious as to what everyone thinks are the more absurd rankings. To be honest, I haven't gotten caught up in the prediction game and trying to figure it out ahead of time, not have I taken much time yet to review the data sheets to see the actual SOS numbers, so I haven't had as strong a reaction to the rankings as obviously some of you have had.

PaulNewman · October 21, 2015, 02:48:32 PM

Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 21, 2015, 02:42:54 PM
Whitworth: .468 SOS

Then the system is just inherently flawed. Don't get how Midd can be .580+ with all of their cupcakes and Whitworth .468 and Kenyon .510 or whatever. Two of the top five teams in the country with one barely ranked and other not ranked. This isn't Randolph ranked #15 in the country not being ranked....it's two top 5 teams.

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 02:49:25 PM

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 19, 2015, 04:58:59 PM

Looking at Whitworth OWP... it's a shockingly low .414 (.440 with remaining games).

AQ or Bust for this Nationally Ranked team...

Well, it's much higher than I had...

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 02:53:58 PM

It may be flawed, but this is nothing new. It's probably just been a while since we had two teams so highly ranked in other polls with such low SOS's. If my memory serves (and it doesn't always anymore), Swarthmore was flirting with the No. 1 ranking back in 2009 or so and was unranked along with Dominican when the NCAA did implement (on what basis or authority was never clear) a .500 SOS threshhold. I think both teams got their SOS over .500 by selection Sunday, so it was a mute point, but I still get the feeling that a sub .500 SOS is a deal breaker.

Mr.Right · October 21, 2015, 02:54:45 PM

Didn't Dominican make the 2009 Final 4?

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 03:01:07 PM

Sounds right. And that's why there was such uproar over not ranking them and Swat in the first two NCAA rankings that year as both were considered Top 10 teams by everyone esle.

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 21, 2015, 03:07:34 PM

Quote from: NCAC New England on October 21, 2015, 02:48:32 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 21, 2015, 02:42:54 PM
Whitworth: .468 SOS

Then the system is just inherently flawed. Don't get how Midd can be .580+ with all of their cupcakes and Whitworth .468 and Kenyon .510 or whatever. Two of the top five teams in the country with one barely ranked and other not ranked. This isn't Randolph ranked #15 in the country not being ranked....it's two top 5 teams.

You can't flaw factual numbers and other teams records......

PaulNewman · October 21, 2015, 03:08:14 PM

I get that SOS matters, just don't get the discrepancies in the computations. RH just last night suggested OWU got their first big W, and that game doesn't even count for those rankings. They've played maybe 1-2 more competitive teams than Kenyon with overlap on Centre, Denison, Witt, Woos, DePauw and Otterbein, and then OWU also played Earlham, Spalding, Hanover, Albion. Kenyon played CMU and the Case game would have been about even with OWU playing ONU. Other than that, I would could TMC as the ONLY difference in quality in terms of added competition.

Kenyon will be fine. This will actually help them ironically.