2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[pad3fan]

Doesn't matter, Elmhurst wins in OT. Wheaton plays Elmhurst and Carthage plays North Central.

[pad3fan]

If they were tied, I believe it would have been North Park on conference goal differential.

[SuperSub15]

Correction. Whraton plays North Central. Carthage plays Elmhurst.

[pad3fan]

  \\SSub sorry, thanks for correction. Thats what i get for doing math in my head!

[wingtips2]

Calvin will reach the sweet 16, but lose to Thomas More or an NCAC school.  I'm hoping they get some tough draws and prove their worth with quality results...

Your NCAC prediction has history behind it and seems pretty likely. Calvin got knocked out of the tournament by OWU last year in a 1-1 draw, losing the shootout. In 2013 and 2011, Calvin lost to OWU. In 2012, Calvin lost to DePauw. You have to go back to 2005 for a Calvin victory over OWU in the tournament.


In fact, if you do the kind of comparison of result + opponent strength I suggested above for the last 8 games, OWU is averaging 4.2, which is extremely good. It's better than Amherst, averaging 3.9, and Calvin, averaging 3.6. I haven't checked, but I'm guessing those are near top results nationally.

When they've made their tourney runs over the years they've not had to go through the NCAC teams.

It's been a while since I was on here - probably close to conversion when the old d3soccer boards shut down.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC's News and Notes

Some stunning results from yesterday.  Amherst, just about anointed as invincible, loses in NESCAC quarters to a team that wouldn't have even been there if Bates could score a single goal in 110 minutes.  Think about that.  Defending national champ Tufts loses again in the quarters, and if this was last year, without a regular season NESCAC title under their belts, we might not be talking Tufts as even in the discussion for a bid, so to that extent I think Tufts is benefiting from "being Tufts."  If you question that remember Tufts likely got one of the last spots in the tournament last year and certainly the last spot for the New England region.  Christopher Newport is gone.  Oglethorpe's excellent season as SAA regular season champs is over after dominating Sewanee for 110 minutes and losing a shootout.  RPI (actually were already done) and Denison, two of the early through mid-season darlings, done.  Not a huge surprise, but Dickinson upsets F&M on a very late goal, and the Red Devils after being counted out earlier are yet again very much in the mix and favored for a Pool C if needed.  ECSU and UMass-Boston, after hardly losing at all this season both lose on the same day to LEC foes.  Rutgers-Camden was left for dead, but aren't we now basically expecting them to hoist the NJAC tourney trophy/AQ?  I thought North Park was eliminated but they'll get another shot as a #4 CCIW seed to knock off Wheaton (Ill) and have a chance for an AQ, but I can't imagine they are still alive for a Pool C.  Same situation for KZoo who should get another shot at Calvin and the MIAA AQ.

Congratulations to several teams who went through their conferences unbeaten.  We already know about Amherst, despite yesterday's early tourney exit.  Who would have predicted Haverford going through the Centennial at 9-0?  Macalester has been very impressive, and is only one of two remaining unbeatens nationally.  The MIAC might be down this year, but getting through all of those teams, including schools that are traditional regional powerhouses, with an 8-0-2 record is outstanding.  Same for Washington & Lee, Elizabethtown, Lycoming, MIT, Endicott, Salisbury, Rose-Hulman and Hanover, Greensboro (and Methodist), and Texas-Tyler .  Others like Calvin, Thomas More, Loras and St Scholastica went unblemished in conference, and while those were not really unexpected we know that actually winning all the games is not easy.  Hats off to Bridgewater State for running through the MASCAC unblemished, as well Daniel Webster in the NECC and Westminster (MO) in the SLIAC.

If your favorite team needs a Pool C and is on the bubble (or could be on the bubble if too many other strong Pool C candidates don't snag their AQs), you'll want to pay attention to the following.  You don't want Oberlin to win the NCAC AQ (and they could, as I've been saying they are a dangerous team for a few weeks, although they will have to beat two heavyweights on the road).  You DO want the following teams to get their AQ....Wheaton (Ill), Loras, Trinity (TX) or at least Colorado College, Montclair or maybe Stockton or Rowan but not Rutgers-Camden, Thomas More, Macalester, MIT, Calvin, Middlebury, Elizabethtown, and Redlands.  You won't expect it but you'll be happily surprised if Lycoming wins.  You'll feel even safer if Stevens, Salisbury, Rose-Hulman, Oneonta, Ohio Northern, W&L, Texas-Dallas, Concordia (WI), ECSU, and Endicott prevail.  You may want to keep half an eye on Pacific Lutheran in this week's regional rankings, as all of the sudden the West looks to have more than the usual low number of Pool C contenders.  Also keep an eye on what happens with the UWs.  I assume Whitewater has a lock on a Pool B, but they would be a strong Pool C candidate.  Seems like Oshkosh likely has played themselves out of the Pool C picture.  And you'll watch the UAA closely today and next Saturday to see which regions may be most impacted.  On Wednesday you'll want to see where lower and/or so far unranked and perhaps under-appreciated teams are slotted (or not), like Ohio Northern, W&L, Endicott, MIT, Pac Lutheran, Texas-Dallas, Concordia (WI), and St Johns.

Lastly, one final plug for the ODAC, USAC, and SAA playoffs.  These are all pretty good to good teams and all of the tourneys feature very closely matched teams.

[SuperSub15]

NCAC great post however North Park is not in their conference tournament.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC great post however North Park is not in their conference tournament.

That's what I thought, because I think I heard the Wheaton announcers suggest that.  But this site has them in at #4, and I looked at conference standings and they are 4th.  What am I missing, and the site missing?  Is there an error in how the records are being reported.

[Christan Shirk]

One of North Central's results got input wrong.  The women's result against Augustana (L1-2) was input as the men's result instead of the actual result, a 1-0 win.  I have corrected it and the standings should reflect it momentarily. That correction pushes North Central above North Park.

One thing we are unable to do is tie-breakers, so if there's a tie for the final playoff spots, sometimes the wrong team will be listed higher in the standings.

[PaulNewman]

One of North Central's results got input wrong.  The women's result against Augustana (L1-2) was input as the men's result instead of the actual result, a 1-0 win.  I have corrected it and the standings should reflect it momentarily. That correction pushes North Central above North Park.

One thing we are unable to do is tie-breakers, so if there's a tie for the final playoff spots, sometimes the wrong team will be listed higher in the standings.

Thanks, and very surprising for North Park to fall to 5th.

[PaulNewman]

Can somebody give us a read on how they see the NJAC and SUNYAC playing out?  Is the NJAC likely to get 2 Pool Cs, and would they get 3 if Camden gets the AQ?  And is Plattsburgh a definite Pool C?  Does Brockport have to beat Cortland?  And if Cortland got the AQ would Oneonta be the only SUNYAC Pool C, or could they get 3?

[Part_Bart]

Can somebody give us a read on how they see the NJAC and SUNYAC playing out?  Is the NJAC likely to get 2 Pool Cs, and would they get 3 if Camden gets the AQ?  And is Plattsburgh a definite Pool C?  Does Brockport have to beat Cortland?  And if Cortland got the AQ would Oneonta be the only SUNYAC Pool C, or could they get 3?

The four SUNYAC teams with a regional ranking are playing in the conference's semi-fianls this week.  Haven't done the math, but eyeball (<sic>) suggests that all four will be ranked this week, and that all four with see their SOS go up.  Of the other teams ranked this past week, Steven's and St. Lawrence's SOS will go down a wee bit, but not enough to worry. RPI had a win, so even though their season is over, they should remain ranked. Hobart -- which seems to be the first out -- will stay unranked even with two wins this past week - and may see its SOS go down given the poor record of one of their opponents from this week. 

So, heading into final week I'm thinking all four SUNYAC semi-finalists will be sitting pretty for NCAAs (one AQ and perhaps three pool C).  Cortland has the most to gain from a semi-win (as they have weakest RvR and lowest SOS of the four). With the expectation that St. Lawrence and Stevens earn AQ bids, and the four SUNYAC schools divide the AQ and three pool C invites. Hobart is on the bubble, but will help their case for a pool C invite with a semi win.   If Stevens does not secure an AQ, they get a pool C and either Cortland, Hobart/RPI does not.  Of course, if Hobart is able to secure the LL AQ by first getting to the final and then winning it (and both are stern tests), Cortland is on then on the bubble.

[PaulNewman]

Can somebody give us a read on how they see the NJAC and SUNYAC playing out?  Is the NJAC likely to get 2 Pool Cs, and would they get 3 if Camden gets the AQ?  And is Plattsburgh a definite Pool C?  Does Brockport have to beat Cortland?  And if Cortland got the AQ would Oneonta be the only SUNYAC Pool C, or could they get 3?

The four SUNYAC teams with a regional ranking are playing in the conference's semi-fianls this week.  Haven't done the math, but eyeball (<sic>) suggests that all four will be ranked this week, and that all four with see their SOS go up.  Of the other teams ranked this past week, Steven's and St. Lawrence's SOS will go down a wee bit, but not enough to worry. RPI had a win, so even though their season is over, they should remain ranked. Hobart -- which seems to be the first out -- will stay unranked even with two wins this past week - and may see its SOS go down given the poor record of one of their opponents from this week. 

So, heading into final week I'm thinking all four SUNYAC semi-finalists will be sitting pretty for NCAAs (one AQ and perhaps three pool C).  Cortland has the most to gain from a semi-win (as they have weakest RvR and lowest SOS of the four). With the expectation that St. Lawrence and Stevens earn AQ bids, and the four SUNYAC schools divide the AQ and three pool C invites. Hobart is on the bubble, but will help their case for a pool C invite with a semi win.   If Stevens does not secure an AQ, they get a pool C and either Cortland, Hobart/RPI does not.  Of course, if Hobart is able to secure the LL AQ by first getting to the final and then winning it (and both are stern tests), Cortland is on then on the bubble.

I'll give you 2 Pool Cs for the SUNYAC, but not 3.  If only 2, who has the edge assuming Oneonta wins AQ?

[Part_Bart]

I'll give you 2 Pool Cs for the SUNYAC, but not 3.  If only 2, who has the edge assuming Oneonta wins AQ?

Brockport has edge over Cortland for 2cd Pool C invite (SOS, RvR and head-to-head), especially if they win their semi.

[lastguyoffthebench]

The winner of Brockport St vs Cortland St in addition to Plattsburgh St n Oneonta St

MSU and Stockton will make it.   And either Rowan or Camden, but not both.