2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

#2 is too high for Kenyon.  I would have them somewhere between #5 thru #8, and that's looking at them optimistically.  As a fan, I'd rather see them in the #12-#15 range with a goal of gradually moving towards the top 5.  This is a good team that is partially but substantially rebuilding, and may be formidable come November.  The talent is there but they need more time to figure out all the pieces, figure out where their leadership is going to come from, etc, etc.  It's nice for the program to be highly ranked which probably gives a boost to the program as happened last year, but unless you are a program like Messiah, OWU, etc that is used to the pressure and expects to be a frontrunner, being a little disrespected can be a good thing.  In other words, the competitive, up-and-coming, underdog role can be a good place to be, especially for a young squad.  At some point today I'm going to try to write something up, with Kenyon as the example, about emerging programs that are trying to break into the envied category of perennial heavy hitters (Messiah, OWU, Trinity (TX), Loras, Wheaton (Ill), Williams, Amherst, etc).  The other two schools that come to mind as very similar to where Kenyon is at right now are F&M and Brandeis (and I'm sure there are a few others).  I don't know the history as well as some, but I would place schools like SLU, Oneonta, and maybe Montclair as in between the two categories above.  Tufts seems like an example of a school that skipped some of the emerging process and with a sudden, stunning, and demonstrative breakthrough jumped right to the top.

[Domino1195]

#2 is too high for Kenyon.  I would have them somewhere between #5 thru #8, and that's looking at them optimistically.  As a fan, I'd rather see them in the #12-#15 range with a goal of gradually moving towards the top 5.  This is a good team that is partially but substantially rebuilding, and may be formidable come November.  The talent is there but they need more time to figure out all the pieces, figure out where their leadership is going to come from, etc, etc.  It's nice for the program to be highly ranked which probably gives a boost to the program as happened last year, but unless you are a program like Messiah, OWU, etc that is used to the pressure and expects to be a frontrunner, being a little disrespected can be a good thing.  In other words, the competitive, up-and-coming, underdog role can be a good place to be, especially for a young squad.  At some point today I'm going to try to write something up, with Kenyon as the example, about emerging programs that are trying to break into the envied category of perennial heavy hitters (Messiah, OWU, Trinity (TX), Loras, Wheaton (Ill), Williams, Amherst, etc).  The other two schools that come to mind as very similar to where Kenyon is at right now are F&M and Brandeis (and I'm sure there are a few others).  I don't know the history as well as some, but I would place schools like SLU, Oneonta, and maybe Montclair as in between the two categories above.  Tufts seems like an example of a school that skipped some of the emerging process and with a sudden, stunning, and demonstrative breakthrough jumped right to the top.

I don't know - Kenyon's front two lines demonstrated a chemistry like that of a side that has been playing together for years this Sunday. Yes - I did watch the backs - they weren't tested at all but I watched their first touch, poise on the ball, etc.  A team that can pressure them may force the defense to cough it up - but that's speculation right now.

But the one and two touch combinations from the front lines was exquisite.  Even some Marietta parents were marveling at the runs off the ball - how there always seemed to be a Kenyon player in a space, anticipating that the ball would be there.  The top teams in the NCAC look very solid in the early going.

[Flying Weasel]

From Kenyon's perspective, I get what you are saying about where you would prefer them to be ranked.  But if you had to do the rankings, based on the results to date (and considering the history of teams), how would you get that many other teams ahead of them?  Almost all teams have had a stumble or close-call that doesn't help their case for the No. 1 or even top 10 ranking. 

I wasn't sure what the voters would do, but I am surprised that Trinity (Tx.) men garned so much support to rise to the No. 1 ranking.  They almost lost to Texas-Dallas, needing overtime to come back from down 1-0 with a goals in the 83rd and 95th minutes.  And the box score does not suggest that this is was a case of complete domination but not scoring.  Shots: 23-20.  SOG: 8-8.  If that was such a quality win to elevate them to No. 1, why didn't Texas-Dallas get many votes?  Were they a quality opponent or not?  I'm also struggling to understand Montcalir State at No. 6.  They have played absolutely noone so far.  But it is a challenge to sort it all out.

And it's interesting to see how one week's and one team's ranking can impact another week's or team's ranking.  By perhaps over-reacting to Carnegie Mellong beating Messiah (a look at the box score suggests that CMU wasn't #3 vs. #14 better than Messiah, and I'd say that a viewing of the game suggests Messiah was/is the better team), voters set themselves up to have to push Kenyon for No.1 because they beat No. 3 CMU.  I don't think it's good to rely too much on previous week's rankings for formulating new rankings. There needs to be a constant re-evaluation of the the full body of work. It doesn't make for good rankings if you just say this team was ranked here and they went X-X-X this week so they should move up/downto here, and this team beat this team that was ranked up here so that must mean they need to move up above them, etc. 

For example, what may have been thought to be a quality win at the time, could be found to be less impressive when more results demostrate that a typically strong opponent is having an off year.  But if a team got their high ranking based on the idea at the time that that was a quality win, then that can become an inaccurate reference point for all their future rankings.  If a team's future rankings are always set relative to the previous week's rankings, than the rankings do not take advantage of hindsight (the ability to discover that the perception at the time may not have been accurate).  And I think this dynamic contributes to rankings becoming more static than they should be.

[PaulNewman]

Domino, that's good to hear, although not sure Marietta is the right test to derive much from in terms of conclusions.  It was a good sign that they were outplaying CMU and found themselves down by a goal, twice, and managed to find a way to win.  There is a lot of talent up top and in the midfield.  Barnes is excellent and provides a ton of energy, but as the only senior on the entire roster he's going to need to be a real leader and cut down on the cards.  Eudy, the transfer from Providence, is very skilled and usually makes great decisions.  He needs to take over some of the leadership role, along with Clougher and Amolo.  Lee sometimes can coast, needs to be more consistent, and less prone to 1 vs 1 sparring with opponents, but he is talented and sometimes comes up with huge plays as he did against Wheaton 2 years ago and in the 2nd half this past weekend against CMU.  Carmona is a VERY talented freshman...very technical and creative out of the midfield and started every game for a high-end Texas USSDA team.  And of course there is Amolo.  I'm probably his biggest fan on this site, but he has the challenge of trying to take himself to another level his last 2 years.  He needs to score or create more scoring chances in the biggest games, like against OWU who he has yet to score against.  Tony is a great kid and I'm really hoping he has a special season.  That's not even counting Jeon who needs to be more consistently productive, Glassman who still doesn't look near 100%, and a couple of the other frosh who are playing up top or as mids.  The back line, in addition to inexperience, is going to be very different.  Last year's group, all seniors, were probably one of the biggest backlines in D3 history.  This year Brown has taken a cue from OWU and converted an attacking mid/forward to a centerback and he is playing really well.  The right back also is a converted mid and he has been playing great (featured on latest Great Goals).  Both are sophs.  A junior with pace is the left back and the most experienced, and one of the stellar frosh is the other starting centerback.  Kenyon loves to have their outside backs overlap into the offensive third.  I thought they got stretched too much during the CMU game, and I'd like to see them pick their spots more in terms of how aggressive they are with their runs.  There are several other talented frosh who are getting time, and they are at least 2-deep at every spot other than maybe CB.  After this scouting report maybe I won't much to say for my other idea!

[Golden_Fan]

NSCAA National rankings

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4323/

[lastguyoffthebench]

Hmm, replies from the NESCAC (we are the best) bias.

I'm not saying they are the BEST team in the nation, but given the results so far ECSU does not appear to be a fluke.  Last year, Coast Guard got a ton of love on the rankings, so there is no reason not to give ECSU their respect.

Tufts hasn't played anyone...

How I think the rankings will end up (in terms of NSCAA format).

1.  Tufts (because returning champs rarely get bumped until a blemish) (Williams #2 (9), ECSU #3 (17), Amherst (21).
2.  Trinity (Whitworth #2 (10), #3 Texas-Dallas (RV)
3.  Chicago (Calvin #2 (14), North Park # (24), Wheaton (RV)
4.  Montclair St (CNU #2 (12), Camden #3 (25), TCNJ (RV).  Voters in a tricky spot with Camden losing @ Salisbury, but tying CNU.
5.  F&M  (Messiah #2 (15), Etown #3 (20)
6.  Loras (UWW #2 (11), could they possibly bump Loras? #3 St. Thomas (19), GAC #4 (RV)
7.  Kenyon (OWU #2 (13), DePauw #3 (18), CMU #4 (23), Denison #5 (RV).  Could see Denison bumping CMU.   
8.  SLU (RPI #2 (16), Oneonta St #3 (22), Plattsburg St (RV)
9.  Williams
10. Whitworth
11. UWW
12. CNU
13. OWU
14. Calvin
15. Messiah
16. RPI.
17. ECSU
18. DePauw
19. St. Thomas
20. Etown
21. Amherst
22. Oneonta St (bumped by RPI, could see unbeaten Plattsburgh here even with the weak SOS)
23. CMU (is the Messiah win enough to keep them ahead of Denison, could see them being switched as well).
24. North Park
25. Rutgers-Camden

RV: TCNJ, GAC, Denison, Plattsburgh St, Texas-Dallas, Wheaton (Ill)

Rank

School

Prev.

W-L-T


1 Tufts University 1 3-0-0
2 Trinity University (Texas)  6 5-0-0
3 Kenyon College  9 5-0-0  (Off by 4)
4 Franklin & Marshall College  12 5-0-0 (Off by 1)
5 University Of Chicago  18 5-0-0 (Off by 2)
6 Loras College  11 4-0-1
7 Christopher Newport University  8 5-0-1  (Off by 5)  Surprised to see them ahead of MSU
8 St. Lawrence University  13 4-0-1
9 Montclair State University  24 5-0-0 (Off by 5)
10 Amherst College  10 2-0-0 (Off by 11)
11 Messiah College  3 3-1-0 (Off by 4)
12 Denison University  NR 4-0-0 (Off by 14)
13 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute  RV 5-0-0  (Off by 3)
14 University of Wisconsin-Whitewater  NR 5-0-0 (Off by 3)
15 Calvin College  16 3-0-1    (Off by 1)
16 Whitworth University  14 4-0-0 (Off by 6)
17 Carnegie Mellon University  NR 4-1-0  (Off by 6)
18 The College of New Jersey  NR 5-0-1 (Off by 8)
19 Eastern Connecticut State University  NR 5-0-0 (Off by 2)
20 University of Texas-Dallas  RV 4-1-0 (Off by 6)
21 Plattsburgh State University  NR 7-0-0 (Off by 5)
22 Elizabethtown College  NR 5-0-0 (Off by 2)
23 University of St. Thomas  NR 4-0-0 (Off by 4)
24 Washington University (Mo.)  NR 2-1-2 (Way off)
25 Brandeis University  NR 5-1-0 (Way off, they slipped past me by mistake).

RV Salisbury (way off), OWU (off by 13), Oneonta St (off by 4).

In reference to the South Atlantic...  Both Salisbury and Stockton lose, but remain in top 5 for region... Camden draws vs #1 team in region and is slotted at #10.  Birmingham Southern gets love again this season.  The good ol' NSCAA poll standard for teams with unblemished records and incredibly weak SOS.

Had Oneonta St taken care of business, Williams stock would be much higher.  Crazy to not see them in the top 25....

Teams in bold (correct slot in region)
Central:  Chicago, Calvin, Washington (MO)
East:  SLU, RPI, Plattsburgh St, Oneonta St 
Great Lakes: Kenyon, Denison, CMU, OWU
Mid-Atlantic: F&M, Messiah, Etown
New England: Tufts, Amherst, ECSU, Brandeis
North:  Loras, UWW, St. Thomas
South Atlantic:  CNU, MSU, TCNJ, Salisbury
West: Trinity, Whitworth, Texas-Dallas

[Mr.Right]

Great goal by Brandeis to beat Babson in 2OT to get Coven his 500th win. Excellent video feed from Brandeis also with no commentary and right above the benches you are getting a REAL feel for the game and coaches...Love it...Babson coach Jon Anderson must be going nuts because Babson defenders were literally caught NAPPING on that free-kick. Very lazy one man wall started it and then defenders just let Brandeis players to OLE' right thru.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Congrats to...

Tufts for staying on top in first poll. They have a long way to go (haven't played a real strong team yet), but they are still there at least for now.

F&M for building over the past several years to now be a legit top 5 team

Elizabethtown - it's been quite some time since they've been on a national poll

[Mr.Right]

Great goal by Brandeis to beat Babson in 2OT to get Coven his 500th win. Excellent video feed from Brandeis also with no commentary and right above the benches you are getting a REAL feel for the game and coaches...Love it...Babson coach Jon Anderson must be going nuts because Babson defenders were literally caught NAPPING on that free-kick. Very lazy one man wall started it and then defenders just let Brandeis players to OLE' right thru.

This was a carbon copy of the game between Messiah and Alvernia at Alvernia last year. They played Messiah 10 deep and were holding on to a 0-0 tie for almost 110 minutes. Messiah got a free kick just about the same spot as Brandeis and won the game with a quick free kick and nice goal catching the Alvernia side totally asleep. Just a gut wrenching loss for Alvernia because they WORKED so hard to get a result and in 1 second they fell asleep and it was all for naught. That is why we love futbol

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mr. Right I remember watching that game online. Heads up play by I believe Brain Ramirez to play it to Payne. Alvernia was still arguing the call. Terrible way to lose that game for them last year.

[Flying Weasel]

Denison at #12 and Chicago at #5 seems way too high.  The reason to see Chris. Newport ahead of Montclair St. is that MSU hasn't played anybody yet.  I was thinking that Salisbury is being a little hard done by, given who they've played, but TCNJ has also played some decent teams.  Rutgers-Camden at only #10 in the region seems ridiculous to me.  Also surprised Williams didn't get more respect for their win over Oneonta St.  Of course, the NSCAA "having" to put one team from each region in the top 8 explains some oddities but not all of them.

The D3soccer.com Top 25 gave more love to Gustavus Adolphus where the NSCAA went for St. Thomas.  D3soccer.com also didn't punish Ohio Wesleyan like the NSCAA did, and they liked Rutgers-Camden a whole lot more.  But beyond a few signiificant discrepancies like that, they two polls aren't just too far apart on most teams considering it's still very early and the Top 25 picture is pretty cloudy yet.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Salisbury played horrible against Susquehanna but it was their opener. I have not seen them play besides that game. Any insight on how they are going to be this year? Historically they have been excellent.

[Flying Weasel]

Mr. Right I remember watching that game online. Heads up play by I believe Brain Ramirez to play it to Payne. Alvernia was still arguing the call. Terrible way to lose that game for them last year.

I don't recall Alvernia arguing much on the foul call itself (the arguing came due to the quick free kick).  They thought they had time to set-up as the Messiah player who was fouled was still on the ground.  We'll never know if Alvernia would have reacted differently (more rushed, more attentive) if the Messiah player hadn't still been on the ground, but that was certainly their argument to the ref after the play that the ball shouldn't have been able to put in play with a player still down on the ground right where the ball was to be played.  Sometimes the fouling team assumes their opponent will ask the ref for the 10 yards and thus feel they have more time, and that may have been Alvernia's mindset as well.  Who knows.  But just wanted to say that in my recollection, Alvernia wasn't victimized on the quick kick because they chose to argue with the ref instead of set-up defensively.

[Mr.Right]

I am befuddled at how high F&M and SLU are. There SOS is pretty weak from what I can tell

[Mr.Right]

Mr. Right I remember watching that game online. Heads up play by I believe Brain Ramirez to play it to Payne. Alvernia was still arguing the call. Terrible way to lose that game for them last year.

I don't recall Alvernia arguing much on the foul call itself (the arguing came due to the quick free kick).  They thought they had time to set-up as the Messiah player who was fouled was still on the ground.  We'll never know if Alvernia would have reacted differently (more rushed, more attentive) if the Messiah player hadn't still been on the ground, but that was certainly their argument to the ref after the play that the ball shouldn't have been able to put in play with a player still down on the ground right where the ball was to be played.  Sometimes the fouling team assumes their opponent will ask the ref for the 10 yards and thus feel they have more time, and that may have been Alvernia's mindset as well.  Who knows.  But just wanted to say that in my recollection, Alvernia wasn't victimized on the quick kick because they chose to argue with the ref instead of set-up defensively.

This is absolutely correct. Alvernia was not arguing the call at all they were just gassed and slow to react to the quick free-kick