2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[SuperSub15]

Loras is fantastic on counter attack, very quick and physical.

[KICKIN95]

That's the final Loras 4-0 over U of C.  This was a very convincing win for the DuHawks especially considering they were without the services of their best technical player and goal scorer Alex Bradley.  Well done men, keep it up.  Loras has only allowed 1 goal in 6 matches and it was given up in their 1st match of the year against Oshkosh.

[KICKIN95]

Kinda baffled by the rankings a bit.  Chicago ends last season unranked Nationally with some votes received and 3rd in their region, starts this season as #16 Nationally and moves up to 10th with no wins over ranked opponents.  Loras finishes last season ranked 10th nationally and 1st in their region and starts the first week still at #10.  Loras beats Oshkosh 2-1, blanks St. Olaf 2-0,  Disposes of national runner up Wheaton again 2-0, and draw with St. John's 0-0 who have alway played spoiler to the DuHawks and just beat in conference and #23 ranked St Thomas 2-1.  Chicago gives up 3 goals and needs OT to squeak out a win against a team Loras dominated and held scoreless to boot. No credence is given at all for blanking Wheaton 2-0, but a draw against the Johnnies drops Loras 3 spots?  So tonight Loras meets at Chicago's field and the DuHawks drops 4 goals on them and picks up another clean sheet. Doesn't seem logical.
   Now I realize it is early and all, but giving up only 1 goal in 4 matches to quality sides and it brings you down 3, really?
My 2 cents have been deposited.

[swibbles]

I was wrong.

[backyarddawg]

Montclair squeaks by a Haverford group which has lost 3 tough games.  Can they rebound heading into conference play? Playing a hard schedule is great but going 0-3 vs Steven's, Wesleyan and Montclair might bite them later on.

Anyone see the game?

[Flying Weasel]

Kinda baffled by the rankings a bit.  Chicago ends last season unranked Nationally with some votes received and 3rd in their region, starts this season as #16 Nationally and moves up to 10th with no wins over ranked opponents.  Loras finishes last season ranked 10th nationally and 1st in their region and starts the first week still at #10.  Loras beats Oshkosh 2-1, blanks St. Olaf 2-0,  Disposes of national runner up Wheaton again 2-0, and draw with St. John's 0-0 who have alway played spoiler to the DuHawks and just beat in conference and #23 ranked St Thomas 2-1.  Chicago gives up 3 goals and needs OT to squeak out a win against a team Loras dominated and held scoreless to boot. No credence is given at all for blanking Wheaton 2-0, but a draw against the Johnnies drops Loras 3 spots?  So tonight Loras meets at Chicago's field and the DuHawks drops 4 goals on them and picks up another clean sheet. Doesn't seem logical.
   Now I realize it is early and all, but giving up only 1 goal in 4 matches to quality sides and it brings you down 3, really?
My 2 cents have been deposited.

I agree KICKN95.  While it makes sense that any chance at first place votes was lost in the tie with St. John's, there's a number of teams above Loras who haven't proven much of anything yet this year. Montclair St. hadn't played anybody.  Chicago's rise seemed a bit premature given who they played.  A few other teams also picked up draws. The real problem, though, was that Loras should have been higher in week one.  Then at least if they were being dinged for the draw, they still would have been more reasonably positioned. 

Also rather perplexing . . .

• #7 St. Lawrence didn't slide due to their tie with Geneseo St., while Geneseo St. did drop from #23 to unranked (essentially #33)!  Really!?!?  That doesn't make any sense.  A tie should have pulled St. Lawrence and Geneseo St. closer in the rankings which would have meant Geneseo climbing, St. Lawrence dropping, or a combination of the two.

• Trinity (Tx.) climbed to the No. 1 ranking after needing overtime to come back from down 1-0 to beat Texas-Dallas (Shots: 23-20.  SOG: 8-8).  If that result could help them claim the No. 1 ranking, that suggests it was considered a quality win and, thus, a quality opponent.  But, no, Texas-Dallas could only get 36 pts.  Sure, that's up from 7 pts. in week one, but it's odd that the clear favorite (Top 10 ranked versus unranked and barely getting votes) would benefit more from am unexpectedly close game than the underdog.

But, I will admit that the higher than usual number of blemishes from expected Top 25 teams combined with some unexpected undefeated starts from teams not usually in the Top 25 discussion has made ranking teams a lot more difficult and opinions much more diverse.

[lastguyoffthebench]

My NSCAA top 10
1.  Tufts
2.  Trinity
3.  Loras
4.  RPI
5.  F&M
6.  MSU
7.  Kenyon
8.  Calvin
9.  Amherst
10. CNU

My D3Soccer Top 10
1.  Loras
2.  Tufts
3.  Trinity
4.  RPI
5.  F&M
6.  MSU
7.  CNU
8.  Kenyon
9.  Amherst
10.  ECSU

[Flying Weasel]

Is this your up-to-the-minute rankings?  Why does your top 3 change between the two?

[Homegrown Harry]

Doesn't matter where you start, it's where you end.
They shouldn't even have rankings until at least a third of the way in.
The preseason rankings are based on basically where you finished the year before.
Half of the preseason top 25 are no longer ranked at week 2 of this year.
Wheaton and Messiah haven't clicked like they were automatically assumed to.
I must agree, Loras coaching has done a fine job working with what they have and adapting.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Is this your up-to-the-minute rankings?  Why does your top 3 change between the two?

Given Loras early SOS and results, I feel as though they are deserving of the #1 slot.  They will not be #1 within the NSCAA, but D3soccer voters may feel differently.

[Flying Weasel]

Ohh.  You called them "My . . . ", and that confused me.  So those are your predictions for those polls.

If the D3soccer.com voters only put Loras at #10 in Week 1, and then punished them (dropped to #13) more than they did other teams for their blemishes/close calls, then I can't see them leap-frogging 12 teams to garner the top spot, especially without the top four picking up a blemish (loss or tie).  I also think they are as deserving as anyone to be in the discussion of No. 1 team, but the D3soccer.com panel as a whole certainly do not regard Loras as highly as you, I, and others. Also not sure the D3soccer.com voters will catapult RPI up to #4 and ahead of some curretn Top 10 teams that haven't picked up a blemish.  They'll climb, for sure, but doubt it will be as much as you predict.  Why do you think Kenyon will slide from #3 to #7?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Kenyon still has a tough game at Centre this weekend.   MSU will host underachieving Oneonta St.  I would actually edit that to put Kenyon at 7th, with CNU 8th.  I have them getting bumped due to teams continuing to win vs stronger opposition.  Massey ratings has Kenyon slotted at #7 as well, with a 238 SOS.   Thought process is, reward the teams for stronger wins; not keep teams in same slot just because they didn't get a blemish.

F&M will move up with their win over E-town and RPI definitely deserves to move up.  Massey ratings actually has RPI at #2 currently, behind Tufts.   Loras at #1 is a stretch given the early draw, but only 1 goal conceded and #5 SOS sure deserves consideration. 

Looking forward to the Tufts Brandeis matchup, where I think Brandeis will get the job done.

The Messiah loss to CMU is going to look worse as the season progresses, and the draw vs Gettysburg is going to hurt.  The conference title this year is no automatic for the Falcons.  Their SOS and record vs ranked opportunities will be limited given their schedule (CMU, Etown, Gettsyburg, Lycoming are the only potentials).  On the other hand, Messiah would need CMU to not be regionally ranked time come NCAA release late in season.  The E-town match-up is going to be HUGE.   If Messiah has 4-5 blemishes with one of them being to E-town and no conference title, do they make the tournament?

[PaulNewman]

Completely with you on Loras.  MUST be in top 3.  I would wait for a couple of more games before we coronate RPI (since Oneonta has not looked like "Oneonta").  RPI is basically where Chicago was before last night.

As for Messiah, I'd wouldn't plan any funerals this early.  My bet is that they will be fine.  OWU had a very slow start last year and look where they ended up.  And if necessary, Messiah always has winning their conference tournament to fall back on.  And does anyone expect Wheaton (Ill) not to be very much in the mix come November???

[Flying Weasel]

Kenyon still has a tough game at Centre this weekend.   MSU will host underachieving Oneonta St.  I would actually edit that to put Kenyon at 7th, with CNU 8th.  I have them getting bumped due to teams continuing to win vs stronger opposition.  Massey ratings has Kenyon slotted at #7 as well, with a 238 SOS.   Thought process is, reward the teams for stronger wins; not keep teams in same slot just because they didn't get a blemish.

I get what you are saying and agree with rewarding higher quality wins and reshuffling teams.  But your Top 10's seem to be a mix of where you think teams should be ranked and what you think the two panels of voters will do, rather than strictly being one or the other.

The Messiah loss to CMU is going to look worse as the season progresses, and the draw vs Gettysburg is going to hurt.  The conference title this year is no automatic for the Falcons.  Their SOS and record vs ranked opportunities will be limited given their schedule (CMU, Etown, Gettsyburg, Lycoming are the only potentials).  On the other hand, Messiah would need CMU to not be regionally ranked time come NCAA release late in season.  The E-town match-up is going to be HUGE.   If Messiah has 4-5 blemishes with one of them being to E-town and no conference title, do they make the tournament?

Messiah's room for error is the smallest it's been in a long, long time due to a weaker SOS than normal and the two early season blemishes. Finishing (overall) and effective center/target forward play are issues for the Falcons, and no matter how good they are in other aspects of the game and in other areas of the pitch, they will be vulnerable to not winning games the "should" win.  This was an issue during the years Josh Wood was out injured.  And actually, having a natural and effective traget/center forward has been an on-and-off issue since the Bills/DMac years with players who are better playing elsewhere being forced into the position at times.  Even last year, while Jeremy Payne certainly didn't do bad up top, he was clearly better suited in his attacking midfield role of the previous two seasons.  Messiah has won national titles in years where this has been an issue, but they need to find a way to overcome it and find a way to win games like last night before they find themselves maybe needing the conference AQ to go to the dance.  But they're not at that point yet, and a lot would have to go wrong for them to not be in the tournament.  This is a pretty good team and given they are only a few games into the rebuilding from the loss of one of the best classes of players in D-III history, it's way too early to know where this team can go this year. Like I said before the season started, this year is the biggest test of coach McCarty's tenure, and these early set-backs have only reinforced the challenge he's facing.

As a Messiah fan, I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think the Messiah dominance of D-III is over.  Not because they are weakening (their recruiting is as strong as ever judging by some of this year's freshmen and the level they are playing at from day one), but there has been a rising tide across D-III over the past 10 years, much fewer easy outs, and lots of other programs that have been closing the gap on Messiah for some time now.  Quite frankly, I was surprised how long their wave of titles stretched when it was apparent that the gap had significantly narrowed, and that's what makes the 10 titles all the more impressive.  They will be a national title contender for the foreseeable future, but I don't expect them to be champions two out of every three years.  The rest of the field is just too good and too deep for that anymore.  (Now here's hoping McCarty and the boys go out and prove me wrong and are collecting trophy number 13 in December 2017!).

[ECSUalum]

Doesn't matter where you start, it's where you end.
They shouldn't even have rankings until at least a third of the way in.
The preseason rankings are based on basically where you finished the year before.
Half of the preseason top 25 are no longer ranked at week 2 of this year.
Wheaton and Messiah haven't clicked like they were automatically assumed to.
I must agree, Loras coaching has done a fine job working with what they have and adapting.

Homegrown,
Totally agree, we will not have meaningfull rankings until 1/3 or perhaps 1/2 of the season completed. Preseason polls are essentially meaningless until someone can analyze in quantitative form the result: impact of seniors graduating, freshmen/transferred student-athletes matriculation into the programs, (team chemistry), coaching changes, and how these all interact with SOS, early season player fitness, which can relate to potential injuries to starters, (specifically impact players).
As I have stated before, pre/early season polls are fun to watch and debate but until some history is made, largely inaccurate.  And of course this goes for Basketball, Baseball, etc etc!!