2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Flying Weasel]

Regarding the latest poll question, here's my analysis.

Bottom line...all 3 likely to get NCAA bids.

Messiah has been the most disappointing, but it's hard not to favor the Falcons winning the conference AQ, especially if the tournament final is on their home field.  Lycoming winning the regular season game would make things interesting, as they likely would have home field, but does anyone want to bet on Lycoming beating Messiah twice?  Falcons will make it and by November will have worked through most of the growing pains of a revamped roster.

Wheaton should be fine.  Just too much talent even if their overall talent was slightly overestimated.  The Wash U game is always a close one and an away loss at Loras means nothing (speaking of which, maybe Loras should have been included in the poll after another loss was hung on the Duhawks last night).  The home draw with Rose Hulman was probably the weakest result out of their 3 blemishes, but then again, Rose Hulman beat DePauw away.  Similar to Messiah, Wheaton really only has one team to worry much about in-conference, and that's North Park.  Wheaton gets that game at home in their final fame of the regular season, and so Wheaton has a great chance to host their tourney.  Look for Wheaton to run the table or at most have 1 more loss or a draw.

OWU on the surface would look to be in the most trouble because of significantly more in-conference competition, but they are really in no worse shape than they were last year at the same time (and of course we all know they went to the Final Four).  Judging by their demolition of Capital last night, they are getting their injured players back in the mix and now will get stronger as the season progresses.  They get Kenyon at home but do have to travel to DePauw.  Oberlin could be competitive with them at Oberlin but that's a hard game to see OWU losing.  This weekend at Wabash is interesting.  Wabash needs a result (at least a draw) to have any chance of landing a conference tournament slot, and right about now is when I would expect OWU to go out to Crawfordsville and earn a solid 2-0 or 3-0 win.  I do not believe this is one of OWU's signature teams (compared to squads over the prior 6-8 years), but I believed (and still believe) the same about last year's team.  That said, OWU hasn't had a season where they didn't win EITHER the regular season OR conference tourney since like 1913.  The OWU aura is generally good for at least a goal a game against their conference challengers, and I don't see any reason why that would be different this year.  Martin is superb at making adjustments and winning big games (especially against teams that have a history of losing big games against OWU), and now that he is getting key players back from injury there's no reason to really expect anything different.  No OAC team appears a threat for an large bid at the moment, and unless TMC loses their conference AQ, the only at large threats would come from CMU and Case (and of course NCAC rivals).  When a team has NEVER (as in NEVER) lost twice to the same team in the same year it's hard to pick against them.

If the question is who is more likely to not win their conference championship and automatic berth, Ohio Wesleyan seems the more obvious choice because there's more legitamate challengers in the NCAC and one in particular, Kenyon, who is a Top 25 team and at this point the favorite. 

If the question is who is less likely to get an at-large berth should they fail to win their conference and automatic berth, then I think Messiah becomes the more obvious choice as their SOS will be significantly lower and not sure how they get any wins versus ranked teams anymore besides Lycoming (e.g. beat Lycoming reg. season, but loss in conference tournament).  It's not impossible that someone like Alvernia could end up being regionally ranked, but any victory by Messiah makes that less likely (games like that become lose-lose sitautions from an at-large resume stand-point). OWU can still pick-up wins vs. ranked teams in their conference regular season and tournament with Kenyon, DePauw, Denison, and maybe even Wabash being likely/potential candidates for the regional ranking.  So OWU has plenty of opportunities to build an at-large berth resume whereas Messiah largely does not.

But the poll question combined the two above questions, so it makes it tricky.  Which is more likely to happen: Messiah failing to win both elimination games in the Commonwealth playoffs or Ohio Wesleyan failing to pick-up a couple wins against the other top teams in the conference (reg. season and/or conf. semifinal) so they have wins vs. ranked teams on their at-large resume?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Hood has lost to Messiah 5-0, 6-1 the last two seasons.   Can Hood pack it in and get a result this year, albeit 0-0?  Can Drew Demich (15g 2a) pull a William Webb?   His goals have come in bunches vs weaker opponents, but 15 goals on 51 shots is impressive (32 SOG).

[TennesseeJed]

Another good point that we do not talk about enough on here. Teams fitness levels. Fitness is obviously a major factor in soccer. IMO teams that are not fit especially at this point in the season means they did not prepare or care to prepare enough in the off season. There is no reason a team a month into the season should be gassed at the 70th minute. THE ONLY EXCEPTION is if you have no depth and therefore cannot give guys a blow without sacrificing the overall play on the field.  Teams that are fit and can run and run IMO mean they worked extra hard in the off season, have decent depth, good senior leadership and coaching leadership making sure the guys were ready to begin the season and finally that the team CARES and WANTS it more.

Agree wholeheartedly MrR, but when I see teams like RPI and Hobart both playing tough, physical games on back to back days, like they each will tomorrow and Saturday, even with fit teams, I could see them looking a bit gassed late in 2H on day 2... Not so much winded, in my view, as just muscle fatigue, particularly when you're getting banged up pretty good on day 1. 

That said, I agree with you entirely that there's really no excuse for it on day 1.  Lack of depth is really more of a recruiting problem than a fitness problem...unless it resulted from cuts due to lack of fitness when recruiting classes showed up for pre-season...

Love to see it when Captains, in particular, but coaches too, take a real lead w/ new recruits and proactively give them summer workouts so they can show up having (hopefully) done the same workout expected of returning players.  Then, a cut by the coach of players who can't pass whatever fitness test(s) he/she chooses, is usually enough to hit home...nobody is fit enough in a competitive college soccer program to do no fitness.  Might have worked in HS or club, but players have to want it bad enough at this level.  If they don't, others will... 

[PaulNewman]

Regarding the latest poll question, here's my analysis.

Bottom line...all 3 likely to get NCAA bids.

Messiah has been the most disappointing, but it's hard not to favor the Falcons winning the conference AQ, especially if the tournament final is on their home field.  Lycoming winning the regular season game would make things interesting, as they likely would have home field, but does anyone want to bet on Lycoming beating Messiah twice?  Falcons will make it and by November will have worked through most of the growing pains of a revamped roster.

Wheaton should be fine.  Just too much talent even if their overall talent was slightly overestimated.  The Wash U game is always a close one and an away loss at Loras means nothing (speaking of which, maybe Loras should have been included in the poll after another loss was hung on the Duhawks last night).  The home draw with Rose Hulman was probably the weakest result out of their 3 blemishes, but then again, Rose Hulman beat DePauw away.  Similar to Messiah, Wheaton really only has one team to worry much about in-conference, and that's North Park.  Wheaton gets that game at home in their final fame of the regular season, and so Wheaton has a great chance to host their tourney.  Look for Wheaton to run the table or at most have 1 more loss or a draw.

OWU on the surface would look to be in the most trouble because of significantly more in-conference competition, but they are really in no worse shape than they were last year at the same time (and of course we all know they went to the Final Four).  Judging by their demolition of Capital last night, they are getting their injured players back in the mix and now will get stronger as the season progresses.  They get Kenyon at home but do have to travel to DePauw.  Oberlin could be competitive with them at Oberlin but that's a hard game to see OWU losing.  This weekend at Wabash is interesting.  Wabash needs a result (at least a draw) to have any chance of landing a conference tournament slot, and right about now is when I would expect OWU to go out to Crawfordsville and earn a solid 2-0 or 3-0 win.  I do not believe this is one of OWU's signature teams (compared to squads over the prior 6-8 years), but I believed (and still believe) the same about last year's team.  That said, OWU hasn't had a season where they didn't win EITHER the regular season OR conference tourney since like 1913.  The OWU aura is generally good for at least a goal a game against their conference challengers, and I don't see any reason why that would be different this year.  Martin is superb at making adjustments and winning big games (especially against teams that have a history of losing big games against OWU), and now that he is getting key players back from injury there's no reason to really expect anything different.  No OAC team appears a threat for an large bid at the moment, and unless TMC loses their conference AQ, the only at large threats would come from CMU and Case (and of course NCAC rivals).  When a team has NEVER (as in NEVER) lost twice to the same team in the same year it's hard to pick against them.

If the question is who is more likely to not win their conference championship and automatic berth, Ohio Wesleyan seems the more obvious choice because there's more legitamate challengers in the NCAC and one in particular, Kenyon, who is a Top 25 team and at this point the favorite. 

If the question is who is less likely to get an at-large berth should they fail to win their conference and automatic berth, then I think Messiah becomes the more obvious choice as their SOS will be significantly lower and not sure how they get any wins versus ranked teams anymore besides Lycoming (e.g. beat Lycoming reg. season, but loss in conference tournament).  It's not impossible that someone like Alvernia could end up being regionally ranked, but any victory by Messiah makes that less likely (games like that become lose-lose sitautions from an at-large resume stand-point). OWU can still pick-up wins vs. ranked teams in their conference regular season and tournament with Kenyon, DePauw, Denison, and maybe even Wabash being likely/potential candidates for the regional ranking.  So OWU has plenty of opportunities to build an at-large berth resume whereas Messiah largely does not.

But the poll question combined the two above questions, so it makes it tricky.  Which is more likely to happen: Messiah failing to win both elimination games in the Commonwealth playoffs or Ohio Wesleyan failing to pick-up a couple wins against the other top teams in the conference (reg. season and/or conf. semifinal) so they have wins vs. ranked teams on their at-large resume?

FW, I respectfully disagree.  Until someone prevents OWU from winning the regular season (2007 is maybe last time the didn't) AND the NCAC tournament, OWU is the presumed favorite as I'm sure any good OWU supporter will tell you.  Consider this.  Kenyon was ranked significantly ahead of OWU for 90% of last season (can't recall the first poll but certainly all the way until the very last poll after the Final Four), and so far just about the same has been true.  Kenyon was ranked #2 in the country for the majority of last season, and yet again OWU won the regular season title and even in the sweet 16 game I doubt anyone thought Kenyon had better than 50/50 odds and some were certain that OWU would win.  But more to the point....against that backdrop, both of the last two seasons OWU was picked to win the NCAC in the preseason predictions by the conference coaches.  I think a similar dynamic applies with Messiah.  I don't know enough about Wheaton and the North Park rivalry or any other teams where Wheaton has historically broken their hearts, but certainly with Messiah there is a huge psychological factor and advantage.  Conference final.... only 1 bid on the line.....are you picking Lycoming or Messiah?  I'm starting to ramble, but my point here is that you can't just look at this one season out of context of the larger history that impacts some of these huge games.  And believe me, when the time comes, the edge that some have will be underscored in any variety of ways and teams will try to get an edge absolutely any way they can.

[Flying Weasel]

Maybe I shouldn't have called Kenyon favorites, but my point was that OWU has more legitimate challengers to the conference throne than Messiah does.  I don't think that can be disputed (Is Lycoming as good as Kenyon?  Is Alvernia as good as DePauw or Denison?).  So while both Messiah and OWU are favorites and more likely to win their AQ than not, I believe the chances and scenarios for OWU to be dethroned are greater than for Messiah.  And that was all I meant to say in the first paragraph in which the question I posed and responded to wasn't whether it is likely that Messiah or OWU would lose in their conference tournament, but rather which one is more likely than the other to lose in their conference tournament.  In response to that question, I stand by my pick of Ohio Wesleyan at this point in time.  Now, if Messiah goes into a tailspin between now and then,  . . .

[PaulNewman]

Maybe I shouldn't have called Kenyon favorites, but my point was that OWU has more legitimate challengers to the conference throne than Messiah does.  I don't think that can be disputed (Is Lycoming as good as Kenyon?  Is Alvernia as good as DePauw or Denison?).  So while both Messiah and OWU are favorites and more likely to win their AQ than not, I believe the chances and scenarios for OWU to be dethroned are greater than for Messiah.  And that was all I meant to say in the first paragraph in which the question I posed and responded to wasn't whether it is likely that Messiah or OWU would lose in their conference tournament, but rather which one is more likely than the other to lose in their conference tournament.  I stand by my pick of Ohio Wesleyan at this point in time.  Now, if Messiah goes into a tailspin between now and then,  . . .

And if you check again I think you'll see that I did suggest that OWU had far greater in-conference challenges than either Messiah or Wheaton.  Was pretty explicit in fact stating Messiah and Wheaton really had only one in-conference and that OWU has several.  That said, the question was also about biggest disappointment so far based on expectations.  You did hit on something....I think OWU is favored in some real way.  The question there is WHY, and how does that or does not impact what happens in reality.

[PaulNewman]

North Park wins it with 10 seconds left in regulation.

[Mr.Right]

Question for the Dave Brandt faithful....Is this year's Army v Navy fixture at PPL field on ESPN U again?

[Mr.Right]

While we are on D1 for a second. What a mess current WNEC coach left former Kenyon and Bowdoin head coach Fran O'Leary at UMASS. UMASS is 1-9-0 and O'Neil was an assistant there for 3 years before becoming Interim Head Coach for a year. He would have recruited all those players at the very least. Rumors have it that O'Leary was overheard saying his Bowdoin teams would have beaten this UMASS team.

[TennesseeJed]

UMass has unfortunately had a string of lackluster seasons, but this one is one of the worst...they held their own vs. UNH.  I don't know for sure, but I don't think the recruiting effort has been strong at all.  One of their stronger players IMO (Matt Pease) was a walk on as a freshmen...  UMass doesn't put much behind the team in terms of $$ either.  I don' think they have many, or any, scholarships at all--maybe 1 or 2 max...for all 4 years.  Hard to be competitive when football and basketball absorb all the sunlight.  UMass women's soccer has historically been much stronger than their men.

Back to D3!


Separation weekend in D3 soccer has begun! 

Cortland holds Plattsburgh to 0-0 in regulation
Vassar up 1-0 on St. Lawrence 54' into game
Hobart holding RPI to 0-0 at 54'
Oneonta squeaks by Brockport with a 1-0 finish

Can't wait for tomorrow's matches...not sure where...but there is trouble ahead in the forecast all over the country!

[blooter442]

Hobart gets out of town with a very good 0-0 draw at RPI. Statesmen are looking good at 6-1-2 and I think are in with a shout even against SLU and Vassar. We shall see.

[swibbles]

UAA Conference Play starts tomorrow. Probably one of the most unpredictable league in the country, and match day 1 looks interesting.

Carnegie Mellon @ Brandeis: Can't see the Judges dropping this one. 3-1 'Deis.
Emory @ Chicago: Emory rebounded after a slow start and Chicago has dropped a few recently. I can see 0-0.
Case @ NYU: Case is my dark horse in the conference and I like them to pick up a nice road win 2-0.
Rochester @ WashU: Should be a pretty even game here and I'm going for a 2-2 draw.

[PaulNewman]

UMass has unfortunately had a string of lackluster seasons, but this one is one of the worst...they held their own vs. UNH.  I don't know for sure, but I don't think the recruiting effort has been strong at all.  One of their stronger players IMO (Matt Pease) was a walk on as a freshmen...  UMass doesn't put much behind the team in terms of $$ either.  I don' think they have many, or any, scholarships at all--maybe 1 or 2 max...for all 4 years.  Hard to be competitive when football and basketball absorb all the sunlight.  UMass women's soccer has historically been much stronger than their men.

Saddest thing to me is that UMass-Amherst as the flagship university has let UMass-Lowell (brand new in D1) get some really good players that I'd bet some money UMass-Amh could have snagged with minimal effort.

[Gregory Sager]

North Park wins it with 10 seconds left in regulation.

NPU dominated the match. The Vikings had the run of play and UWW was only able to get the ball into the forward third a scant few times throughout the match. The Warhawks mustered only one shot on goal all night, and really only had one good chance (a Warhawk couldn't quite align a backside tip off of a corner). Most of their offense consisted of thunderous free kicks from distance by 6'8, 240 behemoth defender Justin Stanko.

The Warhawks defense is very good, and they did an outstanding job of holding NPU at bay for 89 minutes and 50 seconds, but I'm a little surprised that the Vikings didn't get on the scoreboard earlier than that. They certainly had multiple opportunities. Fortunately for North Park, Pedram Tahmi-Masoleh was there to knock in his 13th goal of the season (in only ten matches) to bring about the win. As for the jawing and the contact, yeah, it was a chippy affair, but it was more a matter of how badly the two squads wanted it than it was of dirty play or inherent animosity. (Coach Born and Coach Guinn have great respect for each other.)

UW-Whitewater went deeper into the bench than it did the night before against Loras, as Coach Guinn had a regular shuttle going in and out in order to keep his people as fresh as they could possibly be, considering the circumstances. The Warhawks' road-weariness was balanced out by the fact that North Park is a M*A*S*H unit right now, with multiple injuries and illnesses being suffered by key NPU personnel.

Great match to watch, even on a night when most of NPU's student section (Foster's Finest) was unable to make it to the stadium.

[PaulNewman]

Wow.  Calvin sneaks by KZoo in OT.  Rough year for KZoo after some real expectation.