2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

2014 Elite 8 Teams
Tufts (5-3-1) (2014: 16-2-4)
Wheaton (Ill.) (6-3-1) (2014: 22-4-0)
Oneonta State (8-2-1) (2014: 21-1-2)
Ohio Wesleyan (8-2-2) (2014: 17-5-4)
Messiah (6-3-1) (2014: 21-1-1)
Brandeis (9-1-0) (2014: 19-3-1)
Trinity (Texas) (9-2-0) (2014: 24-2-0)
Christopher Newport (8-0-3) (2014: 19-3-5)

2014: 159-21-17 (.850) - overall
2014: 133-16-12 (.863) - regualr season
2015: 59-16-9 (.756) - first 5 weeks

• Three teams with three losses already.
• Collectively already as many losses through 5 weeks as in the entire regular season & conf. playoffs last year,
• Collectively averaging 2 losses in first 5 weeks after average just 2.6 losses for the entire 2014 season incl. the NCAA tournament.

And you have these 2014 Sweet 16 teams also struggling:
Wartburg (8-3-1) (2014: 13-4-6)
Loras (6-3-1) (2014: 17-3-2)
Cortland State (6-3-2) (2014: 16-5-1)
Muhlenberg (3-5-1) (2014: 15-2-3)


Reminds me of when only one of the 2010 Final Four teams even made the tournament the next year, and two went on to have losing records.  In fact, of the 2010 Elite 8 teams, only four made the 2011 tournament and only two managed to win a tournament game (of course, those two went to the final)

2010 Elite 8 Teams (2010 record / 2011 record)
Messiah (23-1-0 / 18-1-1) - one-and-done in NCAA's
Lynchburg (20-5-1 / 7-9-4) - missed NCAA's
UW-Oshkosh (20-1-3 / 10-6-2) - missed NCAA's
Bowdoin (15-2-4 / 4-7-3) - missed NCAA's
Ohio Wesleyan (19-2-2 / 23-2-0) - 2011 Champion
Calvin (16-3-5 / 19-6-2) - 2011 runner-up
Middlebury (16-4-1 / 8-4-4) - missed NCAA's
Merchant Marine (13-3-5 / 11-7-1) - one-and-done in NCAA's

2010: 142-21-21 (.829)
2011: 100-42-17 (.682)


So as bizarre as this season (2015) seems, it isn't on pace to be a bad as the 2011 season was.

Great comparison and info! I still can't give +K yet but it's the thought that counts! 

[Mr.Right]

2010 Bowdoin was a Final 4 team from Nescac and was 2 minutes away from getting into the Final but a last minute fluke goal from Lynchburg tied the game and then went on to beat them in OT...The next year Bowdoin graduated a bunch of key players but they had horrible GK'ing and ended up 4-7-3 and missed the 8 team Nescac tournament.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

When comparing the regional rankings done by NSCAA to the D3Soccer Poll I find it interesting that teams who are ranked worse in the region are RV in the national poll over teams that are ranked higher than them in the region? Does that make any sense? Different committees and structure but it's just odd. For example, Eastern is 2nd in the Mid-Atlantic region and 19th in the D3 poll as to where Etown is 3rd in the region but 12th in the D3 poll? So messed up.

[Golden_Fan]

National poll

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4561

[Flying Weasel]

When comparing the regional rankings done by NSCAA to the D3Soccer Poll I find it interesting that teams who are ranked worse in the region are RV in the national poll over teams that are ranked higher than them in the region? Does that make any sense? Different committees and structure but it's just odd. For example, Eastern is 2nd in the Mid-Atlantic region and 19th in the D3 poll as to where Etown is 3rd in the region but 12th in the D3 poll? So messed up.

What's so odd and messed up about that?  Do you think we'd have concensus on this message board about who is better, E-town or Eastern?  Doubt it.  So one set of voters gave the nod to Eastern another set of voters gave the nod to E-town.  No biggie.  Now, personally, I don't see E-town being anything more than a borderline Top 25 team right now, but then again with this crazy season that borderline is awfully wide.  I think putting together a Top 25 that you would feel confident defending is as challenging and as close to impossible as it's ever been. But it's when a team is ranked Top 10 or so by D3soccer.com but only 5th regionally by NSCAA that you can start calling it odd and messed up.  And that has happened.  Probably does every season.  Unfortunuately can't think of an example off the top of my head.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Sorry I should have clarified my statement more appropriatly. Usually IMO I lean to agree with D3soccer poll but this year I feel that the NSCAA has been getting it right more than D3 has been. There's a ton of variation between the 2. Usually things are a little more clearer but as we have said this season is far from usual. Being an Eastern grad I'm a little more bias toward them and the mid Atlantic region hence the name. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

And my example wasn't a good one with etown and eastern. A better one could be Lycoming at 4 in the region but not RV in d3 and Gettysburg 10 in the region but RV. That's a better example. Also Oneonta being 14th in d3 but only RV in nscaa. Just more flux than I anticipated that's all. Wasn't trying to hurt your feelings FW.

[Mr.Right]

National poll

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4561

So Kenyon drops 9 spots and RPI 1 spot?

I am still baffled at this Calvin ranking.

ho hum

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

National poll

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4561

So Kenyon drops 9 spots and RPI 1 spot?

I am still baffled at this Calvin ranking.

ho hum

Yeah Kenyon shouldn't be behind RPI IMO. TMC is a little high for my liking too. Very good team but 7 is not right. I'd put them top 10-15

[Flying Weasel]

And my example wasn't a good one with etown and eastern. A better one could be Lycoming at 4 in the region but not RV in d3 and Gettysburg 10 in the region but RV. That's a better example. Also Oneonta being 14th in d3 but only RV in nscaa. Just more flux than I anticipated that's all. Wasn't trying to hurt your feelings FW.

No hurt feeling whatsoever, MAF.  Gosh, no.  And your clarification changes what I understood you to be saying significantly.  And the Gettysburg example is more along the lines of what I was getting at as being the truly odd and messed up disparities between the two polls.  Not sure I still find that just so odd, but odder.  I mean looking at that more closely.  Gettysburg only had 10 points in the D3soccer.com poll, so very, very little. What?  Maybe a voter or two nationally that remembered their tie against Messiah but didn't see the box score and so they are more recognizable than some of the other Mid-Atlantic teams like Drew.  Which Mid-Atlantic teams got votes in the D3Soccer.com poll?  F&M (#1), E-town (#12), Eastern (#19), and Messiah (RV, 43 pts.), Gettysburg (RV, 10 pts.) and Drew (RV, 7 pts.).  So, formulating a regional ranking off that (not really fair to the voters to do so, but just for this exercise), that has Gettysburg at #5.  Often times, not always, theres little to separate teams 5 thru 10 in the region even for those of us more familiar with the teams, and all the more difficult for national voters, approx. 7/8ths not being from the Mid-Atlantic region.  After the first several RV teams, the rest of the list is completely unreliable and the exact opposite of concensus and rather driven by a few odd few ballots.*

(* -  in other words, assigning the rankings #26 thru #30 to the first five teams receiving votes should not be done much less further down the list.  If voters had to fill out a 30-team ballot, teams #26 thru #30 could come out quite different than with 25-team ballots.)

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

And my example wasn't a good one with etown and eastern. A better one could be Lycoming at 4 in the region but not RV in d3 and Gettysburg 10 in the region but RV. That's a better example. Also Oneonta being 14th in d3 but only RV in nscaa. Just more flux than I anticipated that's all. Wasn't trying to hurt your feelings FW.

No hurt feeling whatsoever, MAF.  Gosh, no.  And your clarification changes what I understood you to be saying significantly.  And the Gettysburg example is more along the lines of what I was getting at as being the truly odd and messed up disparities between the two polls.  Not sure I still find that just so odd, but odder.  I mean looking at that more closely.  Gettysburg only had 10 points in the D3soccer.com poll, so very, very little. What?  Maybe a voter or two nationally that remembered their tie against Messiah but didn't see the box score and so they are more recognizable than some of the other Mid-Atlantic teams like Drew.  Which Mid-Atlantic teams got votes in the D3Soccer.com poll?  F&M (#1), E-town (#12), Eastern (#19), and Messiah (RV, 43 pts.), Gettysburg (RV, 10 pts.) and Drew (RV, 7 pts.).  So, formulating a regional ranking off that (not really fair to the voters to do so, but just for this exercise), that has Gettysburg at #5.  Often times, not always, theres little to separate teams 5 thru 10 in the region even for those of us more familiar with the teams, and all the more difficult for national voters, approx. 7/8ths not being from the Mid-Atlantic region.  After the first several RV teams, the rest of the list is completely unreliable and the exact opposite of concensus and rather driven by a few odd few ballots.*

(* -  in other words, assigning the rankings #26 thru #30 to the first five teams receiving votes should not be done much less further down the list.  If voters had to fill out a 30-team ballot, teams #26 thru #30 could come out quite different than with 25-team ballots.)

Yes that makes sense. It's nice having 2 polls to compare and criticize  Only if we here on the message the boards could combine the 2 and make a third of our own...that would be a good poll!

[Wisco21]

Quick question, are the first rounds of regional rankings that matter coming out next week or the week following?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Here would be my top 25 poll for this week:
1. Amherst        8-0-0
2. Brandesis      9-1-0
3. F&M              10-0-0
4. CNU               8-0-3
5. MSU              11-1-0
6. Kenyon          8-1-0
7. Whitworth      9-0-1
8. Calvin             10-0-1
9. Oneonta St.   8-2-1
10. U-WW          11-2-0
11. Eastern        10-0-1
12. TMC             9-1-1
13. Trinity(Tx)    8-2-0
14. RPI               8-1-2
15. ECSU            9-1-1
16. CMU             7-2-1
17. Camden        8-2-1
18. Platts. St      10-1-2
19. St. Lawr.      8-2-2
20. Denison        9-0-1
21. Case West.   9-1-0
22. Loras            6-3-1
23. Tufts            5-3-1
24. Kean            11-1-0
25. UMass-Bo.   9-0-0
RV: UW-Oshkosh, St. Scholastica, Lycoming, Texas-Dallas, Colorado Coll.

*So I leave out DePauw, Etown, Wash. Coll., and North Park from the 2 polls combined* 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Having watched CNU twice, I'd have them around the 12-14 range.

1.  Amherst
2.  Brandeis
3.  Oneonta St
4.  MSU
5.  Kenyon
6.  F&M
7.  Loras
8.  TMC
9.  RPI
10. Whitworth
-------------------------------------------------------
11-20:  This is a group that I feel could make a run toward Elite 8 - Final 4:

Trinity, SLU, Denison, UWW, Rutgers-Camden, Loras, Messiah, Middlebury, DePauw, CNU.

---------------------------------------------------------
21. Eastern
22. Plattsburgh St
23. Haverford
24. Case Western
25. ECSU
RV:  Tufts, Wheaton (IL), Rowan, Lyco, MA-Boston

[Mr.Right]

Quick question, are the first rounds of regional rankings that matter coming out next week or the week following?

I Believe Oct 21st Wednesday is the 1st poll that matters