2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Flying Weasel]

Right, you are.

The Pre-Cahmpionships Manual: http://www.d3soccer.com/ncaa-publications/2015/2015-NCAA-Division-III-Soccer_Pre-Championships-Manual.pdf

Page 18.

Men's Soccer Regional Ranking

The men's soccer committee will release regional rankings on the following dates:

● Wednesday, Oct. 21
● Wednesday, Oct. 28
● Wednesday, Nov. 4

The committee will rank the top 15 percent of eligible teams in each region (or a minimum of four teams, whichever is
greater) by applying the championships selection criteria. Based on 2015 sponsorship reports, the following number of
teams will be ranked in each region:

Central Region – 6
East Region – 7
Great Lakes Region – 8
Mid-Atlantic Region – 8
New England Region – 12
North Region – 7
South Atlantic Region – 8
West Region – 5

Women's Soccer Regional Rankings

The women's soccer committee will release regional rankings on the following dates:

● Wednesday, Oct. 21
● Wednesday, Oct. 28
● Wednesday, Nov. 4

The committee will rank the top 15 percent of eligible teams in each region (or a minimum of four teams, whichever is
greater) by applying the championships selection criteria. Based on 2015 sponsorship reports, the following number of
teams will be ranked in each region:

Central Region – 6
East Region – 7
Great Lakes Region – 8
Mid-Atlantic Region – 9
New England Region – 12
North Region – 8
South Atlantic Region – 9
West Region – 6

[lastguyoffthebench]

As seen in the South Atlantic Region forum:

The NCAA Regional Rankings will be released October 22.  Plenty of matchups beforehand that could certainly shift the placement of teams.  According to the Pre-Championship Manual, only 7 schools will be ranked.   I would expect the NJAC to be highly featured with the start to the season thus far.

1.  MSU     11-1-0 (RvR: 2-1; Ws - Haverford, Stockton. L - Oneonta St).
2.  RUC       8-2-1 (RvR: 2-1-1; Ws - Cabrini, Rowan. L - Salisbury. T - CNU).
3.  CNU       8-0-3 (RvR: 0-0-2; T - RUC, *Lynchburg)
4.  Rowan    9-2-0  (RvR: 2-2; Ws - Messiah, RUN, Ls - SLU, RUC)
5.  Salisbury 6-3-0 (RvR: 2-1; Ws - RUC, MM, Ls - Eastern)
6.  Stockton 8-3-0 (RvR: 0-3-0; L - RPI, MSU, Haverford)
7.  TCNJ      6-3-2 (RvR: Ws - Stevens Tech, Drew; Ls - RUN, Kean, Stockton
7.  Lynchburg 6-1-2 (RvR: 0-0-1; T - CNU)
7.  RUN       9-3-0 (RvR: 2-3*; Ws- TCNJ, Cortland St; Ls - MM, UR, Rowan)
7.  Kean     12-1-0 (RvR: 2-0*; RUC, TCNJ if they get ranked)
7.  Maryville 9-1-1 (RvR: 0-1-0; L - MSU)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty clear for the top 5 with about 6-7 teams bunched together fighting for the final 2 spots.

Rutgers-Newark vs a bunch of bubble regional ranked teams:  Merchant Marine, Rochester, Cortland St, JHU, Rowan, TCNJ.  For that reason I would believe they will be anywhere from 5 to unranked.

TCNJ has beaten strong teams in other regions, SIT 2-1 and Drew 3-1, but were beaten by Kean and Stockton 4-1 and 3-1, respectively.

Maryville still has NCW, Greensboro, and underachieving Covenant remaining.  Given there minimal chances at RvR, they cannot afford any blemishes and must win the USA South AQ.


I will take a look at the Mid-Atlantic and give my projections for the 8 teams with a few bubble spots.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

As seen in the South Atlantic Region forum:

The NCAA Regional Rankings will be released October 22.  Plenty of matchups beforehand that could certainly shift the placement of teams.  According to the Pre-Championship Manual, only 7 schools will be ranked.   I would expect the NJAC to be highly featured with the start to the season thus far.

1.  MSU     11-1-0 (RvR: 2-1; Ws - Haverford, Stockton. L - Oneonta St).
2.  RUC       8-2-1 (RvR: 2-1-1; Ws - Cabrini, Rowan. L - Salisbury. T - CNU).
3.  CNU       8-0-3 (RvR: 0-0-2; T - RUC, *Lynchburg)
4.  Rowan    9-2-0  (RvR: 2-2; Ws - Messiah, RUN, Ls - SLU, RUC)
5.  Salisbury 6-3-0 (RvR: 2-1; Ws - RUC, MM, Ls - Eastern)
6.  Stockton 8-3-0 (RvR: 0-3-0; L - RPI, MSU, Haverford)
7.  TCNJ      6-3-2 (RvR: Ws - Stevens Tech, Drew; Ls - RUN, Kean, Stockton
7.  Lynchburg 6-1-2 (RvR: 0-0-1; T - CNU)
7.  RUN       9-3-0 (RvR: 2-3*; Ws- TCNJ, Cortland St; Ls - MM, UR, Rowan)
7.  Kean     12-1-0 (RvR: 2-0*; RUC, TCNJ if they get ranked)
7.  Maryville 9-1-1 (RvR: 0-1-0; L - MSU)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty clear for the top 5 with about 6-7 teams bunched together fighting for the final 2 spots.

Rutgers-Newark vs a bunch of bubble regional ranked teams:  Merchant Marine, Rochester, Cortland St, JHU, Rowan, TCNJ.  For that reason I would believe they will be anywhere from 5 to unranked.

TCNJ has beaten strong teams in other regions, SIT 2-1 and Drew 3-1, but were beaten by Kean and Stockton 4-1 and 3-1, respectively.

Maryville still has NCW, Greensboro, and underachieving Covenant remaining.  Given there minimal chances at RvR, they cannot afford any blemishes and must win the USA South AQ.


I will take a look at the Mid-Atlantic and give my projections for the 8 teams with a few bubble spots.

Yes would appreciate a prediction for mid-atlantic region...and what do you mean by these rankings are the ones that count? Can you guys elaborate please and explain this. Still new to the selection process/criteria stuff. Thanks!

[lastguyoffthebench]

1   Franklin & Marshall College 10-0-0  (RvR 1-0-0) JHU, Haverford, Dickinson, Gettysburg remaining
2   Eastern University 10-0-1 (RvR 2-0-0) Miseri and King's left.  Capable of running the table with remaining schedule.
3   Elizabethtown College 9-1-1 (RvR 1-1) Susqu, Merchant Marine, and Drew remaining.
4   Lycoming College 8-1-1   (RvR 0-1-1)* W vs Geneva if they get ranked.  Arcadia, Messiah, Alvernia, Oneonta St remaining.  AQ is necessary or solid finish.
5   Drew University 8-1-2     (RvR 0-0-0)* L to TCNJ if they get ranked.  Merchant Marine and E-town on schedule for chance to improve. 
6   Cabrini College  6-1-2      (RvR  0-1-0) No other strong games remaining, expect them to with the AQ.
7   Dickinson College 6-2-2   (RvR 0-1-0)  F&M, Miseri, Haverford remaining
8   Haverford College 7-3-0   (RvR 1-3-0)  RUC, Dickinson, F&M remaining on schedule for chance to improve
------------------------------------------------------
9     Messiah 7-3-1
10   Gettysburg College  7-2-1
11   Alvernia
12   Merchant Marine
13   Kings

[lastguyoffthebench]

The Rankings I projected for the South Atlantic factored in OWP + Win % + Record vs Ranked.   It is, however, missing a bigger piece to the puzzle without the OOWP.
Just from an eyeball test, the NSCAA seems to be close to what the NCAA Regional Rankings might look like.

OWP
0.621   Haverford
0.607   JHU
0.607   Messiah
0.603   Alvernia
0.527   Dickinson
0.526   Merchant Marine
0.522   F&M
0.505   Lycoming
0.495   E-town
0.479   Eastern
0.475   Drew
0.432   King's
0.424   Gettysburg
0.384   Cabrini
---------------------------------
WP %
1.000      F&M
0.954      Eastern
0.863      E-town
0.850      Lycoming
0.818      Drew
0.818      King's
0.777      Cabrini
0.750      Gettysburg
0.727      Merchant Marine
0.700      Haverford
0.700      Dickinson
0.650      Messiah
0.636      JHU
0.636      Alvernia

[Domino1195]

National poll

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4561

So Kenyon drops 9 spots and RPI 1 spot?

I am still baffled at this Calvin ranking.

ho hum

Can only think Calvin's ranking may be due to all those clean sheets - but not exactly playing a strong out of conference schedule.  TMC challenged themselves with a tough schedule (perhaps knowing their conference is weak) and is deserving of their ranking.  We'll see what happens with CWRU this week - their schedule favors them with many of the tougher matches at home.

Denison keeps chugging along.  I would say they are the best team I've seen in person this year.  By team I mean that group of guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  There are far more talented sides, containing far more talented individuals, that will go further in the postseason than they will, but this "team" consistently gets the most out of each player, each game.  I still don't know how they are doing it but I have backed away from my theory that Siegfried & Roy are helping them . . .

And a shout-out to midwest punching bag Waynesburg State, scoring their 3rd goal of the season and getting their first result in a 1-1 draw vs Bethany.

[ECSUalum]

NSCAA NCAA Division III Men - National - Poll 4 - October 6, 2015
Rank School                                 Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College             2 10-0-0
2 Amherst College                            4 8-0-0
3 Whitworth University                      5 9-0-1
4 Calvin College                                6 9-0-1
5 Montclair State University             10 11-1-0
6 Brandeis University                        8 9-1-0
7 Thomas More College                    15 9-1-1
8 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute      7 8-1-2
9 Kenyon College                              1 8-1-0
10 Christopher Newport University     3 8-0-3
11 University of Wisconsin-Whitewtr  11 11-2-0
12 Eastern University                       17 10-0-1
13 University of Texas-Dallas            13 9-1-1
14 Plattsburgh State University         23 10-1-2
15 North Park University                   RV 9-2-0
16 Case Western Reserve University  18 9-1-0
17 Washington University (Mo.)         14 6-1-3
18 Colorado College                          21 8-1-2
19 Loras College                                9 7-3-1
20 Kean University                           NR 12-1-0
21 Elizabethtown College                  RV 9-1-1
22 College Of St. Scholastica            25 10-1-0
23 University Of Mass-Boston           RV 9-0-0
24 St. Lawrence University               16 8-2-2
25 Denison University                      24 9-0-1

Also receiving votes: University Of Wisconsin-Oshkosh (11), Rutgers University-Camden (9), Lycoming College (5), Milwaukee School of Engineering (4), SUNY Oneonta (2), University Of Chicago (1), DePauw University (1)


October 6, 2015
D3soccer.com Men's Top 25, Week 5

Through games of Sunday, October 4, 2015

# School (1st Pl. Votes) Record Pts. Prev.
1 Franklin & Marshall (13) 10-0-0 969 2
2 Amherst (5) 8-0-0 923 5
3 Brandeis (3) 9-1-0 918 3
4 Kenyon (2) 8-1-0 841 1
5 Montclair State 11-1-0 791 10
6 Christopher Newport 8-0-3 774 4
7 Whitworth 9-0-0 717 8
8 Calvin 10-0-1 699 12
9 Denison 9-0-1 666 13
10 Trinity (Texas) 8-2-0 567 15
11 UW-Whitewater 11-2-0 540 11
12 Elizabethtown 9-1-1 523 19
13 Carnegie Mellon 7-2-1 502 7
14 Oneonta State 8-2-1 466 21
15 Eastern Connecticut 9-1-1 452 18
16 RPI 8-1-2 346 9
17 Thomas More 9-1-1 343 24
18 Rutgers-Camden 8-2-1 254 17
19 Eastern 10-0-1 235 —
20 Plattsburgh State 9-1-2 230 23
21 St. Lawrence 8-2-2 208 14
22 Loras 6-3-1 203 16
23 Kean 11-1-0 188 —
24 DePauw 7-1-2 183 —
25 Tufts 5-3-1 169 6

Dropped out: No. 20 Salisbury, No. 22 Messiah, No. 25 Rowan

Receiving Votes: Mass-Boston 157, UW-Oshkosh 151, Texas-Dallas 120, Case Western Reserve 98, Rowan 70, Middlebury 47, Messiah 43, Colorado College 26, Ohio Wesleyan 19, MIT 16, Wesleyan 16, Salisbury 14, Stevens 12, Gettysburg 10, North Park 10, Macalester 9, St. Scholastica 7, Drew 7, Keuka 5, Endicott 3, Wheaton (Ill.) 3, Maryville (Tenn.) 2

[TennesseeJed]

National poll

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4561

So Kenyon drops 9 spots and RPI 1 spot?

I am still baffled at this Calvin ranking.

ho hum

The RPI stickiness in the NSCAA poll doesn't make much sense to me either, after last 3 games.  D3 poll had a much bigger drop week to week, even w/ them starting lower in rank on D3 relative to NSCAA (9 vs. 7) last week.  Calvin's record is great, but their schedule doesn't seem that challenging to me this year...I don't know the teams in their schedule as well as some others, but Endicott and Kalamazoo seem to be their toughest games? 

Re: Kenyon, I think that the average of 4 and 9 (D3/NSCAA ranks, resp.) in the 6 +/- range feels about right.  Some big games coming up for the Lords (this weekend not included...wish we could change the order...) over next few weeks, so hope they're getting fired up!

I think Tufts rating is a bit of an overreaction right now personally...I definitely don't think they should be out of top 25 from an ability standpoint, but they do have their work cut out for them in the NESCAC...

[ECSUalum]

From: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/soccer-men/d3

Team Goals Against Average »   
Through games of October 5, 2015
Rank Team GAA
1 Amherst .23
2 Calvin .27
3 Whitworth .29
4 St. Lawrence .32
5 MIT .32
6 Rensselaer .35
- Occidental .35
8 Wis.-Oshkosh .35
9 Castleton .35
10 Endicott .36
11 Middlebury  .36
12 UMass Boston  .39
13 Frank. & Marsh.  .39
14 Bowdoin  .39
15 Springfield  .40
16 Texas-Dallas .41
17 Union (NY)  .42
18 Eastern  .45
19 Trinity (TX)  .45
20 Brockport .47


Scoring Offense »   
Through games of October 5, 2015
Rank Team Per Game
1 St. Scholastica 4.82
2 Westminster (MO) 4.11
3 Kean 4.08
4 Norwich 4.00
- MIT 4.00
- Maryville (TN) 4.00
- Montclair St. 4.00
8 Knox 3.92
9 Finlandia 3.75
10 Rowan 3.45
11 Carnegie Mellon 3.40
12 Hood 3.33
13 Calvin  3.27
14 St. Mary's (MD)  3.20
- Alfred  3.20
16 Lake Forest  3.18
17 Curry  3.17
18 Middlebury  3.13
19 UMass Boston  3.10
- St. Joseph's (ME)  3.10

Only Calvin, Middlebury, UMBoston, MIT and Montclair St in both groups above

[TennesseeJed]

Can only think Calvin's ranking may be due to all those clean sheets - but not exactly playing a strong out of conference schedule.  TMC challenged themselves with a tough schedule (perhaps knowing their conference is weak) and is deserving of their ranking.  We'll see what happens with CWRU this week - their schedule favors them with many of the tougher matches at home.

Agree completely.

Denison keeps chugging along.  I would say they are the best team I've seen in person this year.  By team I mean that group of guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  There are far more talented sides, containing far more talented individuals, that will go further in the postseason than they will, but this "team" consistently gets the most out of each player, each game.  I still don't know how they are doing it but I have backed away from my theory that Siegfried & Roy are helping them . . .

Saw them play last year but not this year.  They were 4-5-1 last year at the same time in 2014...very different team, or at least very different results.  The W vs TMC and the draw w/ OWU were legit this season.  Losses to TMC and JCU last year by now.  Hoping to see the Lords put a dent in their fantastic YTD 2015 record when they meet on 10/18, but they've held up great so far this year.   Lucky for the Big Red that OWU is behind them and that they played OWU while some starters were injured.  Honestly, a W, given OWU's condition would have been a stronger showing, given their current ranking and the fact that OWU had at least one starter on the bench.   I think they'd have had a tougher time later in the season, but they avoided an L and it definitely helps their NCAC conference standings with the tough competition this year.

And a shout-out to midwest punching bag Waynesburg State, scoring their 3rd goal of the season and getting their first result in a 1-1 draw vs Bethany.

+1....   really tough way to go through a season...   

[Flying Weasel]

...and what do you mean by these rankings are the ones that count? Can you guys elaborate please and explain this. Still new to the selection process/criteria stuff. Thanks!

Read this: http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2014/ncaa-regional-rankings-coming-next-week

The at-large selections have absolutely nothing to do with the NSCAA Regional or National polls or the D3soccer.com Top 25.  They are based on criteria applied by the NCAA selection committee.  That same comittee applying the same criteria does regional rankings the final three weeks prior to the NCAA tournament which by design foreshadow the at-large selections.  So, these rankings (meaning the NCAA regional rankings) are the ones that count, the ones that tell us how the at-large selection committee itself rates the teams.

Related reading material:
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2014/about
http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2014/AQs-PoolB-PoolC-explained
http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2014/at-large-analysis-and-predictions

[backyarddawg]

Is this as of 10/6/2015 or their remaining schedule as well?

The Rankings I projected for the South Atlantic factored in OWP + Win % + Record vs Ranked.   It is, however, missing a bigger piece to the puzzle without the OOWP.
Just from an eyeball test, the NSCAA seems to be close to what the NCAA Regional Rankings might look like.

OWP
0.621   Haverford
0.607   JHU
0.607   Messiah
0.603   Alvernia
0.527   Dickinson
0.526   Merchant Marine
0.522   F&M
0.505   Lycoming
0.495   E-town
0.479   Eastern
0.475   Drew
0.432   King's
0.424   Gettysburg
0.384   Cabrini
---------------------------------
WP %
1.000      F&M
0.954      Eastern
0.863      E-town
0.850      Lycoming
0.818      Drew
0.818      King's
0.777      Cabrini
0.750      Gettysburg
0.727      Merchant Marine
0.700      Haverford
0.700      Dickinson
0.650      Messiah
0.636      JHU
0.636      Alvernia

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

...and what do you mean by these rankings are the ones that count? Can you guys elaborate please and explain this. Still new to the selection process/criteria stuff. Thanks!

Read this: http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2014/ncaa-regional-rankings-coming-next-week

The at-large selections have absolutely nothing to do with the NSCAA Regional or National polls or the D3soccer.com Top 25.  They are based on criteria applied by the NCAA selection committee.  That same comittee applying the same criteria does regional rankings the final three weeks prior to the NCAA tournament which by design foreshadow the at-large selections.  So, these rankings (meaning the NCAA regional rankings) are the ones that count, the ones that tell us how the at-large selection committee itself rates the teams.

Related reading material:
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2014/about
http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2014/AQs-PoolB-PoolC-explained
http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2014/at-large-analysis-and-predictions

Great thanks! I did browse some of the pages after page 18. So the NSCAA is different from the NCAA regional rankings? Different committee? Am I correct in that? So we want to really focus on the NCAA regional rankings which are different from the NSCAA regional rankings. When do the NCAA regional rankings come out?

Thanks again for you insight FW!!

[Flying Weasel]

Great thanks! I did browse some of the pages after page 18. So the NSCAA is different from the NCAA regional rankings? Different committee? Am I correct in that? So we want to really focus on the NCAA regional rankings which are different from the NSCAA regional rankings. When do the NCAA regional rankings come out?

Yes, the NSCAA is not the NCAA, the NCAA is not the NSCAA.
Yes, the focus when discussing at-large berth prospects is the NCAA regional rankings.
When? Re-read the first post on this page.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thanks FW!!!