2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[D3soccerwatcher]

Great question!  I follow quite a few D3 soccer teams and I haven't seen any online video presence like Messiah's.  But there has to be some out there.

[Nutmeg]

Certainly wish there was more...we are too often relegated to a fans poor shakey video version on YouTube. Yes, I think it would also help in recruiting....

[D3soccerwatcher]

Gordon College has posted their 2015 schedule...
http://athletics.gordon.edu/schedule.aspx?schedule=253&path=msoc

[4231CenterBack]

Gordon College has posted their 2015 schedule...
http://athletics.gordon.edu/schedule.aspx?schedule=253&path=msoc

Probably right where it needs to be as far as SOS.  No terrible teams, 6-7 that have been recent NCAA tournament participants.  One quality nescac, one quality national power.  It's not the meat grinder that some teams play, but gives them the best chance of getting in AND being prepared for the tourney. 

[D3soccerwatcher]

Gordon College has posted their 2015 schedule...
http://athletics.gordon.edu/schedule.aspx?schedule=253&path=msoc

Probably right where it needs to be as far as SOS.  No terrible teams, 6-7 that have been recent NCAA tournament participants.  One quality nescac, one quality national power.  It's not the meat grinder that some teams play, but gives them the best chance of getting in AND being prepared for the tourney.

CenterBack - I agree with your analysis.  This is a step in the right direction for Gordon as far as SOS.  And also agree that this schedule gives them a very fair chance of making the big dance.  The Tuft's game will be a good measuring stick for them.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Lycoming College has posted their 2015 schedule.
http://athletics.lycoming.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

[Nutmeg]

Gordon College has posted their 2015 schedule...
http://athletics.gordon.edu/schedule.aspx?schedule=253&path=msoc

Probably right where it needs to be as far as SOS.  No terrible teams, 6-7 that have been recent NCAA tournament participants.  One quality nescac, one quality national power.  It's not the meat grinder that some teams play, but gives them the best chance of getting in AND being prepared for the tourney.

CenterBack - I agree with your analysis.  This is a step in the right direction for Gordon as far as SOS.  And also agree that this schedule gives them a very fair chance of making the big dance.  The Tuft's game will be a good measuring stick for them.

Yep, it is not a meat grinder and is getting better... I would like to see it get s bit stronger as Gordon develops...

[D3soccerwatcher]

Nutmeg - good point - it would be good to see Gordon's SOS progress as the program continues to develop.  I'm going to guess that will happen. That's what will help them reach the status I'm sure they are working hard to achieve.

[4231CenterBack]

Nutmeg - good point - it would be good to see Gordon's SOS progress as the program continues to develop.  I'm going to guess that will happen. That's what will help them reach the status I'm sure they are working hard to achieve.

I think it raises an interesting question about scheduling. How good should your schedule be? Should you take all comers? Should you try to have the best schedule possible playing as many powerhouses as you can?

If the end goal is getting into the tournament and making a deep run. Then I think you have to be careful about how aggressive you are with your schedule. Too many quality losses are still losses and will hurt you.

Based on their dominance I think you have to use Messiah as a model. They play in a relatively weak conference. But they schedule very good nonconference matches to get ready for the tournament. Barring something crazy, like 2013, they get their automatic bid and are in regardless.

The Nescac beats the hell out of each other each year. And that seems to hurt the 4th-6th teams ability to get into the tourney. They come out of the Nescac battle hardened, but often with injuries and lots of losses. With hindsight being what it is, I think Tufts caught a break by losing in the first round of the tournament. They avoided playing two very difficult physical matches. They were fresher, uninjured and ready to make their fantastic run.

It may not be fair, but I think Gordon is very well situated to be a perennial tournament team. The automatic bid is powerful. 

[PaulNewman]

Nutmeg - good point - it would be good to see Gordon's SOS progress as the program continues to develop.  I'm going to guess that will happen. That's what will help them reach the status I'm sure they are working hard to achieve.

I think it raises an interesting question about scheduling. How good should your schedule be? Should you take all comers? Should you try to have the best schedule possible playing as many powerhouses as you can?

If the end goal is getting into the tournament and making a deep run. Then I think you have to be careful about how aggressive you are with your schedule. Too many quality losses are still losses and will hurt you.

Based on their dominance I think you have to use Messiah as a model. They play in a relatively weak conference. But they schedule very good nonconference matches to get ready for the tournament. Barring something crazy, like 2013, they get their automatic bid and are in regardless.

The Nescac beats the hell out of each other each year. And that seems to hurt the 4th-6th teams ability to get into the tourney. They come out of the Nescac battle hardened, but often with injuries and lots of losses. With hindsight being what it is, I think Tufts caught a break by losing in the first round of the tournament. They avoided playing two very difficult physical matches. They were fresher, uninjured and ready to make their fantastic run.

It may not be fair, but I think Gordon is very well situated to be a perennial tournament team. The automatic bid is powerful.

Now this is a good analysis.

Tufts did benefit by losing early in the NESCAC tourney.  They also benefited from a good draw.  Dickinson, Wheaton (MA), and Muhlenberg were all competitive opponents and definitely good wins, but that said all of those looked winnable for Tufts on paper.  They got to stay local for the first 2 games and then faced the Mules who were a little short on offense.  Given that they weren't a top seed coming in, an Elite 8 matchup with Messiah with a chance to go to the Final Four looked pretty good.  They get the first minute goal off a poor clearance and the rest is history.

I'd quibble just a little with the "beat each other up" theme that is so popular with NESCAC.  The 4-6 teams in any conference are going to have around a .500 in-conference record or worse.  At least a couple of NESCAC teams each year have managed to get through the conference gauntlet with stellar records, including Amherst going undefeated for a couple of years.  And as a league they didn't exactly tear it up against non-conference foes last year.  Williams lost to Babson and I believe either RPI or Skidmore.  Midd lost to Castleton St.  Wesleyan lost to a couple of non-conference teams.  Conn Coll lost to ECSU.  Amherst barely got by New England College in OT. 

I do think the NESCAC will be fascinating to follow this upcoming season.  Tufts has upset the applecart by breaking through and winning a national title, and Amherst, Midd, Williams, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, etc will all be very hungry, and we'll also see if teams like Colby can jump in and pose a more competitive threat.

As far as scheduling, I would agree that having more than 2-3 tough non-conference games is asking for trouble, especially since those games tend to be early when teams are still working out the kinks.  Lycoming's schedule seems fairly daunting with York, Rochester, Oneonta, and of course Messiah.

[Brother Flounder]

Nutmeg - good point - it would be good to see Gordon's SOS progress as the program continues to develop.  I'm going to guess that will happen. That's what will help them reach the status I'm sure they are working hard to achieve.

I think it raises an interesting question about scheduling. How good should your schedule be? Should you take all comers? Should you try to have the best schedule possible playing as many powerhouses as you can?

If the end goal is getting into the tournament and making a deep run. Then I think you have to be careful about how aggressive you are with your schedule. Too many quality losses are still losses and will hurt you.

Based on their dominance I think you have to use Messiah as a model. They play in a relatively weak conference. But they schedule very good nonconference matches to get ready for the tournament. Barring something crazy, like 2013, they get their automatic bid and are in regardless.

The Nescac beats the hell out of each other each year. And that seems to hurt the 4th-6th teams ability to get into the tourney. They come out of the Nescac battle hardened, but often with injuries and lots of losses. With hindsight being what it is, I think Tufts caught a break by losing in the first round of the tournament. They avoided playing two very difficult physical matches. They were fresher, uninjured and ready to make their fantastic run.

It may not be fair, but I think Gordon is very well situated to be a perennial tournament team. The automatic bid is powerful.

Now this is a good analysis.

Tufts did benefit by losing early in the NESCAC tourney.  They also benefited from a good draw.  Dickinson, Wheaton (MA), and Muhlenberg were all competitive opponents and definitely good wins, but that said all of those looked winnable for Tufts on paper.  They got to stay local for the first 2 games and then faced the Mules who were a little short on offense.  Given that they weren't a top seed coming in, an Elite 8 matchup with Messiah with a chance to go to the Final Four looked pretty good.  They get the first minute goal off a poor clearance and the rest is history.

I'd quibble just a little with the "beat each other up" theme that is so popular with NESCAC.  The 4-6 teams in any conference are going to have around a .500 in-conference record or worse.  At least a couple of NESCAC teams each year have managed to get through the conference gauntlet with stellar records, including Amherst going undefeated for a couple of years.  And as a league they didn't exactly tear it up against non-conference foes last year.  Williams lost to Babson and I believe either RPI or Skidmore.  Midd lost to Castleton St.  Wesleyan lost to a couple of non-conference teams.  Conn Coll lost to ECSU.  Amherst barely got by New England College in OT. 

I do think the NESCAC will be fascinating to follow this upcoming season.  Tufts has upset the applecart by breaking through and winning a national title, and Amherst, Midd, Williams, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, etc will all be very hungry, and we'll also see if teams like Colby can jump in and pose a more competitive threat.

As far as scheduling, I would agree that having more than 2-3 tough non-conference games is asking for trouble, especially since those games tend to be early when teams are still working out the kinks.  Lycoming's schedule seems fairly daunting with York, Rochester, Oneonta, and of course Messiah.

Well, what do u think of Tufts upcoming schedule which likely includes Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Bowdoin, et al. and non- conference games with Gordon and Brandeis?  That sounds like a VERY tough schedule to me... They may get "beat up" and put themselves at jeopardy for an NCAA tourney bid.....

[lastguyoffthebench]

I would think:  play one or two perennial giants, some mid table performers in the stronger conferences, and splash in the the likely winners or top teams of weaker conferences.   Maybe even try to schedule vs teams that traditionally play a strong schedule to boost the OOWP factor. 


Seems like the OWP or SOS around the .575 mark was good enough to make it to the dance last year...   I'll have to go back and look at the SOS for the Pool C's in 2014:

Amherst (13-1-4)                  0.587
Brandeis (17-2-0)                  0.633
Brockport State (10-3-6)   0.568
Coast Guard (13-2-3)   0.58
Cortland State (14-4-1)   0.547
Dickinson (11-5-2)                  0.604
Dominican (14-5-2)                  0.545
Emory (13-3-2)                  0.603
Franklin and Marshall (15-1-2) 0.573
Loras (15-2-2)                   0.575
North Park (13-5-1)     0.597
Ohio Wesleyan (15-4-2)   0.556
Rochester (9-5-3)                  0.627
Rutgers-Newark (15-5-0)   0.557
Salisbury (12-2-5)                  0.556
Texas-Dallas (13-4-3)   0.516
Tufts (10-2-4)                  0.576
Wheaton (Mass.) (16-3-2)   0.597


Avg   .577

   

[D3soccerwatcher]

Excellent insights and comments on the importance of scheduling and the factors that must be considered.  I enjoyed reading the posts.

I do agree with NCAC New England's "quibble...with the "beat each other up" theme that is so popular with NESCAC."  Some very good points made on this topic. 

[PaulNewman]

"Well, what do u think of Tufts upcoming schedule which likely includes Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Bowdoin, et al. and non- conference games with Gordon and Brandeis?  That sounds like a VERY tough schedule to me... They may get "beat up" and put themselves at jeopardy for an NCAA tourney bid....."

Is that their real schedule for next year, or are you guessing?  That would be a very solid to very good schedule, but I wouldn't call it "very tough."  This is another example of wanting to count being part of the NESCAC as an advantage when it's convenient and then as a disadvantage when it's convenient, with the common denominator of saying whatever makes the NESCAC sound as special and exclusive as possible.  Just be the best instead of spending so much time selling that you are the best.   NESCAC teams get a boost from being from the NESCAC.  It's considered the best conference, along with the UAA, and that's why they get 3-4 bids consistently.  Will Tufts being playing a different, harder conference schedule than usual, or the same conference schedule?  As for non-conference, Brandeis and Gordon are nice non-conference games.  Would be better if they also added Wheaton (MA) or a Babson and a Rochester or a top-half Liberty League team.  It certainly is not tougher than some of the schedules UAA teams play (like Chicago, Wash U, Rochester) or a Rutgers-Camden or even a Haverford or Swarthmore.

[Nutmeg]

"Well, what do u think of Tufts upcoming schedule which likely includes Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Bowdoin, et al. and non- conference games with Gordon and Brandeis?  That sounds like a VERY tough schedule to me... They may get "beat up" and put themselves at jeopardy for an NCAA tourney bid....."

Is that their real schedule for next year, or are you guessing?  That would be a very solid to very good schedule, but I wouldn't call it "very tough."  This is another example of wanting to count being part of the NESCAC as an advantage when it's convenient and then as a disadvantage when it's convenient, with the common denominator of saying whatever makes the NESCAC sound as special and exclusive as possible.  Just be the best instead of spending so much time selling that you are the best.   NESCAC teams get a boost from being from the NESCAC.  It's considered the best conference, along with the UAA, and that's why they get 3-4 bids consistently.  Will Tufts being playing a different, harder conference schedule than usual, or the same conference schedule?  As for non-conference, Brandeis and Gordon are nice non-conference games.  Would be better if they also added Wheaton (MA) or a Babson and a Rochester or a top-half Liberty League team.  It certainly is not tougher than some of the schedules UAA teams play (like Chicago, Wash U, Rochester) or a Rutgers-Camden or even a Haverford or Swarthmore.

Hmmmm. Really? I beg to differ..... I would have to say that would fall in the top 25%