2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[D3soccerwatcher]

Messiah's Facebook page reports their Spring game score...
Messiah 4
Johns Hopkins 2

[D3soccerwatcher]

Gordon College announces incoming freshmen class...

http://athletics.gordon.edu/news/2015/5/4/MSOC.aspx?path=msoc

[Mr.Right]

Interesting class. The kid on Seacoast is decent. I do not know the others but Tilton academy is not known for soccer. Based on pictures they lack size but I am sure they have some skill which they will need to play on their TIGHT home field dimensions

[D3soccerwatcher]

My thoughts on preseason rankings...

#1 Wheaton (IL)
Other Top 5...Messiah, Ohio Wesleyan, Tufts (long shot for top 5)

Marshall Hollingsworth of Wheaton (top prospect for National POY)

Please chime in with your thoughts!

[Saint of Old]

Teams mentioned above will always be a safe bet to compete at a National level.
In the East, look for Oneonta to have another strong year and Vassar and RPI to challenge from the Liberty League.
Cortland got a taste of success last year and will no doubt want to build on that for '15.

Stevens will want to bounce back strong after a subpar year by their standards.

Nationally, this will be the most open season for the last 15 years.
There are atleast a dozen teams with a very realistic chance of being National Champions.

[Brother Flounder]

Teams mentioned above will always be a safe bet to compete at a National level.
In the East, look for Oneonta to have another strong year and Vassar and RPI to challenge from the Liberty League.
Cortland got a taste of success last year and will no doubt want to build on that for '15.

Stevens will want to bounce back strong after a subpar year by their standards.

Nationally, this will be the most open season for the last 15 years.
There are atleast a dozen teams with a very realistic chance of being National Champions.

I have to agree.  I couldn't pick one.  I can't even pick who would win the NESCAC.

Regarding POY, that is also a hard one. Rashid at Williams could be good but he has been injured the last 2 years.  Hollingsworth is  also a good pre-season choice but he has also had a few knee surgeries over the last 2 years.  So, this is wide open.  The defending champion Jumbos have some excellent returning players but they are mostly midfielders and facilitators.   The award winner usually has many goals so they may not be recognized (though I don't agree with this)....So, in conclusion, it is a wide open year, both in predicting the champion and POY............ 

[D3soccerwatcher]

Just curious as to why everyone thinks this season is the most wide open in years.  Is that because people are thinking that Messiah may not be dominant this year?

[D3soccerwatcher]

National Final Four Ohio Wesleyan posts their 2015 schedule...

http://www.battlingbishops.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=164&path=msoc

[PaulNewman]

On the back of the passage of time and the 2015 class exiting stage left, a few random thoughts heading into the 2015 season...

1) Messiah -- It would be easy to guess that Messiah will come back to the pack a bit.  They've lost a stellar senior group, and also experienced the unexpected transfer of Brandt.  That said, the Falcons also seem to re-load and they've been through many cycles of saying goodbye to what probably seemed like irreplaceable classes before.  Expect someone like a Colby Thomas to explode.  Messiah also will benefit from dominating their conference and by tourney time should be in the mix for another championship run.  The difference may be that they won't be even or better odds versus the rest of the field (like in the past or sort of like UK was in bball this past season).  Instead, they likely will be one of 8-10 teams with a legit shot at making a run to a championship.

2) Tufts -- I wouldn't be surprised if Tufts begins the season at #1.  Sure, they lost a a few key players, but they return a ton, and I would expect that Shapiro's excellent recruiting has continued.  The bottom line is that Tufts broke through, and the swag of having won the whole thing (and the way the did it marching through the three most storied progams in D3) can't be underestimated.  I've adjusted my own predictions for the NESCAC season and would now regard Tufts as the favorite in a tight race with Amherst and Middlebury.

3)  Wheaton (Ill) -- Wheaton also had a breakthrough of sorts, and if he stays healthy Hollingsworth has got to be a strong candidate for NPOY.  I suspect the Thunder's coaching transition will be smooth.  Count Wheaton in as one of the top 8-10 teams with a real shot.

4) Oneonta and SLU -- Don't know these teams well, but I'd look for one or both to be strong contenders.  SLU has been one of the biggest hard-luck teams (oddly along with and also because of Amherst), and seems like just on a chance basis it's time for a deeper run.

5) OWU and Kenyon -- Obviously this is an area of great interest from my perspective.  On paper, both should be down a little, and certainly Kenyon has to recover from a bitter ending and more importantly the graduation of their entire back line.  That said, OWU and Kenyon both appear to have favorable schedules and I could see both being 1-2 loss teams (or even undefeated) when they meet in Delaware late in the regular season.  This has been a good rivalry for a while, but now it's a great rivalry.  Kenyon will expect to win when they play, as opposed to thinking they have a chance to win, which of course doesn't mean that they will win.  I think these two schools will have some classic battles over the next couple of years.  The Lords return most of their midfield and forwards, and Amolo should be a darkhorse pick for NPOY or at least NCAC POY.  I also would guess that both schools have very strong classes coming in.  I think both of these teams will be in the 15-20ish range at the beginning of the season with a chance to crack the group of 8-10 with a real shot.  Will also be interesting to see if DePauw can rebound and create a legit three team rivalry.

6)  Don't know enough about the NJAC to know whether Montclair and/or Camden will be seriously in the hunt.

7)  The UAA -- I'm sure a couple of teams will emerge as Sweet 16 teams but hard to see one of them going beyond that.  Brandeis will be interesting to watch.  Don't think they lose a ton beyond Savonen, and they've had three consecutive years of being highly competitive.

8) The Centennial -- Gut impression is that F&M will still be good but perhaps a half-notch weaker.

9) Loras -- Seems like Loras has gone under the radar a little, but I'm sure they will be right there in the mix.  Will be interesting to see how the Wartburg team responds after a great season but in the wake of a pasting at the hands of Wheaton.

10)  Can Wheaton (MA) and/or Babson make a run past the first weekend?  I'm thinking Wheaton will be good.  And will Gordon emerge as a real threat in the New England region?

11) Sleeper pick on a national level -- Thomas More.  Write it down.

12) Recruiting -- There's a fair amount of talk on the site about who is good and who is not, what schools seem to have strong classes coming in, how many USSDA players schools have, etc.  Especially at the D3 level, and where some kid may not make a decision until the Spring after many schools already have committed themselves to a certain number of players, I think it is very hard to predict how certain schools and especially certain players are going to fare.  I'm aware of one player from last year who was considered a strong contender for NPOY all season who was told he could try to walk on at Rochester and Carnegie Mellon.  I know another who was both an All-American and an Academic All American who was bypassed by a couple of notable NESCACs.  And I am aware of a very productive 4 year player for a top 20 program who was told after acceptance that he could try to walk on at Colby but likely would be out of luck.  I imagine there are MANY hit and miss stories of the same sort in D3 land.  It's also hard to predict how kids will respond to the whole college experience when they get there.  Top recruits may not ever make an impact, and unheralded types may end up becoming the backbone of teams.

[Midwest Soccer]

On the back of the passage of time and the 2015 class exiting stage left, a few random thoughts for 2016...

1) Messiah -- It would be easy to guess that Messiah will come back to the pack a bit.  They've lost a stellar senior group, and also experienced the unexpected transfer of Brandt.  That said, the Falcons also seem to re-load and they've been through many cycles of saying goodbye to what probably seemed like irreplaceable classes before.  Expect someone like a Colby Thomas to explode.  Messiah also will benefit from dominating their conference and by tourney time should be in the mix for another championship run.  The difference may be that they won't be even or better odds versus the rest of the field (like in the past or sort of like UK was in bball this past season).  Instead, they likely will be one of 8-10 teams with a legit shot at making a run to a championship.

5) OWU and Kenyon -- Obviously this is an area of great interest from my perspective.  On paper, both should be down a little, and certainly Kenyon has to recover from a bitter ending and more importantly the graduation of their entire back line.  That said, OWU and Kenyon both appear to have favorable schedules and I could both being 1-2 loss teams (or even undefeated) when they meet in Delaware late in the regular season.  This has been a good rivalry for a while, but now it's a great rivalry.  Kenyon will expect to win when they play, as opposed to thinking they have a chance to win, which of course doesn't mean that they will win.  I think these two schools will have some classic battles over the next couple of years.  The Lords return most of their midfield and forwards, and Amolo should be a darkhorse pick for NPOY or at least NCAC POY.  I also would guess that both schools have very strong classes coming in.  I think both of these teams will be in the 15-20ish range at the beginning of the season with a chance to become in the group of 8-10 with a real shot.  Will also be interesting to see if DePauw can rebound and create a legit three team rivalry.

I thought I heard Brandt went to Louisville but he is not on the roster.

Also, I think calling Amolo a dark horse for NPOY is very bold, but I guess that's the point of a dark horse. He made honorable mention or 3rd team all conference last year. I would take Brian Schaefer from OWU over him or Gonzales from DePauw (who admittedly had a soph struggle last year). The OWU v Kenyon games have been highly competitive over the last 2-3 years and just great to watch, especially last year going 1-1-1 in the 3 game series with 2 of those games going to OT. Since 2000, OWU is 15-2-2 against Kenyon including post-season match ups but in the last 5 meetings OWU has only mustered a 2-1-2 record against them. Maybe a signal of change? Not sure but they are always some of my favorite games to watch during the season.

The NCAC is becoming more exciting to watch with OWU, Kenyon, and now DePauw (and Oberlin and Wabash in the last 2 years) really becoming threats. DePauw hosts Loras next fall which should be a great game to see where they stand before having to match up vs Kenyon and OWU in conference play.

I like your pick of Thomas More as a dark horse team. They can play with anyone. I also think John Carroll is on the brink of something. They got hosed last year missing the tournament and had 1 of the best players in the country who didn't have a chance to showcase his ability in the tournament. I think they could have done some damage.

[PaulNewman]

@Midwest, I didn't know DePauw has Loras scheduled.  Great job by the Tigers to get a game with Loras.  I don't see a similarly tough foe on the schedule for OWU or Kenyon.

2015 is a big one for Amolo.  He will have to step up as a leader with the departure of a huge senior group.  He did make (generously in my opinion) an All-American team last year.  You also may be forgetting his very hot start to last year's season.  He tailed off towards the end.  He needs to be a difference maker in the biggest games, like against OWU.  He's set up to have a big year with dynamic players like Barnes, Eudy, and Glassman around him.  Schaefer is an excellent player -- skilled, clutch, gritty, and very competitive.  He'll no doubt win his share of accolades.  That said, I don't think his ceiling for being ultra-dynamic is as high as for Amolo.

Without going into details, one reason I expect Kenyon to remain a legit contender is because of recruiting.  The assistant who came over a couple of years ago (former D1 striker whose father played for Man U) appears to be doing a great job.  A big class is coming in and I would expect at least 2-3 studs to emerge from that group.  Kenyon is a hot school right now (with most apps and lowest admit rate in its history), and their recent success on the field surely doesn't hurt on the recruiting trail.

[oldonionbag]

I realize this isn't soccer specific, but I felt as though everyone on the boards would appreciate this immensely. Luther College senior Chris Norton walks across the graduation stage after being told he would probably never walk again following a severe spinal cord injury he suffered playing football for the school in 2010. Unbelievably powerful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJJOdjlRbQo

[Nutmeg]

My thoughts on preseason rankings...

#1 Wheaton (IL)
Other Top 5...Messiah, Ohio Wesleyan, Tufts (long shot for top 5)

Marshall Hollingsworth of Wheaton (top prospect for National POY)

Please chime in with your thoughts!

I like your top five but given tufts is the defending champ they won't be considered a long shot in the pre season rankings, especially given the fact that they dominated Ohio Wesleyan in the ncaa semi final game last December....

[Nutmeg]

I realize this isn't soccer specific, but I felt as though everyone on the boards would appreciate this immensely. Luther College senior Chris Norton walks across the graduation stage after being told he would probably never walk again following a severe spinal cord injury he suffered playing football for the school in 2010. Unbelievably powerful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJJOdjlRbQo

Nice post...it ain't always about the wins and losses...

[Wisco21]

1.) Tufts
2.) Wheaton
3.) Messiah
4.) SUNY Oneonta
5.) Ohio Wesleyan

Going against the grain but I feel as if this top 5 could be switched all around. Will be interesting to see where everyone is placed especially with Messiah bowing out in the Elite 8.