2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Brother Flounder]

Hmm, replies from the NESCAC (we are the best) bias.

I'm not saying they are the BEST team in the nation, but given the results so far ECSU does not appear to be a fluke.  Last year, Coast Guard got a ton of love on the rankings, so there is no reason not to give ECSU their respect.

Tufts hasn't played anyone...

How I think the rankings will end up (in terms of NSCAA format).

1.  Tufts (because returning champs rarely get bumped until a blemish) (Williams #2, ECSU #3)
2.  Trinity (Whitworth #2, #3 Texas-Dallas)
3.  Chicago (Calvin #2, North Park #3)
4.  Montclair St (CNU #2, Camden #3)
5.  F&M  (Messiah #2, Etown #3)
6.  Loras (UWW #2, could they possibly bump Loras? #3 St. Thomas)
7.  Kenyon (OWU #2, DePauw #3, CMU #4, Denison #5).  Could see Denison bumping CMU.   
8.  SLU (Oneonta St #2, Steven Tech #3)  toss up for the #2

For me, I 'm not saying they are a fluke and they deserve praise... Just wouldn't put them at the top....

[Mr.Right]

I would pump the brakes just a little on ECSU.  Fantastic start but at least a couple of their games could have gone the other way, and now their schedule gets noticeably soft.  The Wesleyan win appears to be the best of the bunch as Muhlenberg is really struggling.

My top 4 right now would be Tufts, Chicago, Trinity, and probably F&M.  Williams is a consideration but would like to see if they get a sweep of Skidmore and two road wins in Maine this weekend.

Agreed

[blooter442]

As much as I like to see the UAA do well, and while they would be worthy of top 10 in tomorrow's poll, I am very curious to see where Chicago is come October. They may be 5-0, and Desai looks like an excellent player, but they did almost lose at home yesterday to St. Olaf (a team that is now 1-4.)  While there's certainly something to be said for battling back and winning in OT, it does perhaps show some cracks. They host Loras this week, and go to Wheaton on the 25th. If they get out of September without a loss I'll be very impressed and would certainly say they're top 10-worthy, but the jury's still out for me at this point.

Re ECSU: Deeeeeeefinitely not No. 1-worthy, but you have to admit that they've been impressive. As lastguy said, Coast Guard got a lot of praise last year, and methinks that ECSU is a heck of a lot more talented (all-round, not just offensively) than they were. We shall see. I'd give them top 10 at this point.

[Flying Weasel]

I'm guessing you'll see Plattsburgh St. in the NSCAA rankings as one of their top three from the East region.

The rankings are a lot trickier because of the fact that Messiah lost (even if somewhat self-inflicted) and Wheaton (Ill.) and Oneonta St. have come out of the gate so poorly.  If all those teams had held serve to this point, you'd have them and Tufts splitting first place votes and filling up the Top 4 or so spots, and no one would be considering ECSU or Chicago for #1.  And as voters try to figure out were to drop Messiah, Oneonta, and Wheaton to, that puts the whole Top 25 in more flux than usual.  Then you have Trinity (Tx.) needing OT to get by UT-Dallas, Loras being held to a scoreless draw by St. John's, F&M having an unimpressive close calls versus Alvernia, St. Lawrence and Ohio Wesleyan tying Geneseo St. and Centre, respectively, Carnegie Mellon falling to Kenyon after upsetting Messiah, Montclair St. not really playing anybody yet, Christopher Newport tying Rutgers-Camden after a close call midweek vs. N.C. Wesleyan, etc. . . .  It really does seem even more difficult then usual two weeks into the season to rank teams given how few top teams haven't stumbled to some extent or another.

[Mr.Right]

Again ECSU deserve praise. However, I have seen them play twice and they a good team NOT GREAT but good. They will have trouble scoring goals against the best in D3 but lets reward them for what they have done so far. Top 10 is accurate for now. No love as of yet for UMASS Boston which is also in the Little East and had a very successful trip to the northwest against Puget Sound and Pacific Lutheran(granted I have no idea how tough those 2 teams are). A possible two bid league in the Little East with UMASS Boston and Eastern Connecticut HAS NOT HAPPENED IN A long TIME.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Hmm, replies from the NESCAC (we are the best) bias.

I'm not saying they are the BEST team in the nation, but given the results so far ECSU does not appear to be a fluke.  Last year, Coast Guard got a ton of love on the rankings, so there is no reason not to give ECSU their respect.

Tufts hasn't played anyone...

How I think the rankings will end up (in terms of NSCAA format).

1.  Tufts (because returning champs rarely get bumped until a blemish) (Williams #2 (9), ECSU #3 (17), Amherst (21).
2.  Trinity (Whitworth #2 (10), #3 Texas-Dallas (RV)
3.  Chicago (Calvin #2 (14), North Park # (24), Wheaton (RV)
4.  Montclair St (CNU #2 (12), Camden #3 (25), TCNJ (RV).  Voters in a tricky spot with Camden losing @ Salisbury, but tying CNU.
5.  F&M  (Messiah #2 (15), Etown #3 (20)
6.  Loras (UWW #2 (11), could they possibly bump Loras? #3 St. Thomas (19), GAC #4 (RV)
7.  Kenyon (OWU #2 (13), DePauw #3 (18), CMU #4 (23), Denison #5 (RV).  Could see Denison bumping CMU.   
8.  SLU (RPI #2 (16), Oneonta St #3 (22), Plattsburg St (RV)
9.  Williams
10. Whitworth
11. UWW
12. CNU
13. OWU
14. Calvin
15. Messiah
16. RPI.
17. ECSU
18. DePauw
19. St. Thomas
20. Etown
21. Amherst
22. Oneonta St (bumped by RPI, could see unbeaten Plattsburgh here even with the weak SOS)
23. CMU (is the Messiah win enough to keep them ahead of Denison, could see them being switched as well).
24. North Park
25. Rutgers-Camden

RV: TCNJ, GAC, Denison, Plattsburgh St, Texas-Dallas, Wheaton (Ill)

FW,
This looks like a typical NSCAA ranking here.  What are your thoughts on Messiah?  Will E-town be ahead of them for the first time in 15 years?

[Flying Weasel]

To me, the NSCAA polls never seemed to suggest that they are considering SOS as being as much of a factor as some of us think it should be.  Thus, I just get the feeling that a 6-0-0 start from a very well-known Plattsburgh (even if many of us know they traditionally get fat off cupcakes in the early weeks) combined with Oneonta's stumble will get rewarded. 

Can't see any reason to move E-town ahead of Messiah based on the past week. 

It will be interesting to see how the two polls sort this mess out, and more difficult than ever to try to make predictions.  Can't put a lot of stock in either of them given it's still early with relatively few games in the books and that we've had so many hiccups from expected Top 25 teams. 

What may be good is that a greater number of teams get into the consciousness of the D3soccer.com voters right from the get-go and maybe helps errode some of the tunnel vision and inertia that seems to settle in very quickly and early in the rankings in most years with the same 25 or so teams just being rearranged instead of having move movement in and out of the rankings.  But we'll have to see.

[Mr.Right]

I was pleasantly surprise with WPI this weekend. They are better team than I expected. They look organized and have some skill in midfield. I look for them to challenge for the NEWMAC this year and give Brandeis and Amherst a game, maybe not win but at least make it a tough out.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I think Denison cracks the top 25 in both polls. Beat a ranked Emory (23) at the time and a very good Thomas More team. Both of those wins were on the road by the way. Would have loved to see how they fared against John Carroll in their opener but it was postponed. Also have only given up 1 goal in their 4 games with 3 of the wins coming on the road. Impressive start for them. 

[Mr.Right]

Emory is really struggling at 1-3-1..Anyone seen them this year? 1-3-1 against not a hard schedule does not bode well

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I have not seen them play yet and I agree with your statement. They are struggling but at the time they played that is still a good win for Denison. They beat them when they were ranked so that should factor in somewhat I would imagine. Plus I love good defense. 3/4 games with shut-outs and only allowing 1 in the other game with 3/4 on the road as well is a good start. Will definitely be keeping my eye on them this season. They have the potential to surprise teams in that conference.

[PaulNewman]

I was pleasantly surprise with WPI this weekend. They are better team than I expected. They look organized and have some skill in midfield. I look for them to challenge for the NEWMAC this year and give Brandeis and Amherst a game, maybe not win but at least make it a tough out.

I agree that WPI has a real shot to win the NEWMAC.  That said, they better win it because their schedule has been about as soft as they come so far.

[PaulNewman]

Looking forward to Wild Wednesday.  Here are just a few of the great match-ups that will reverberate for at least a week or so.

Oneonta vs RPI
OWU vs ONU
Loras vs Chicago
Haverford vs Montclair
E'town vs F&M
Gettysburg vs Messiah
WPI vs Brandeis
Stevens vs Vassar
John Carroll vs Case Western

[ECSUalum]

Again ECSU deserve praise. However, I have seen them play twice and they a good team NOT GREAT but good. They will have trouble scoring goals against the best in D3 but lets reward them for what they have done so far. Top 10 is accurate for now. No love as of yet for UMASS Boston which is also in the Little East and had a very successful trip to the northwest against Puget Sound and Pacific Lutheran(granted I have no idea how tough those 2 teams are). A possible two bid league in the Little East with UMASS Boston and Eastern Connecticut HAS NOT HAPPENED IN A long TIME.

Mr Right, I would generally agree with you, as the team is relatively young, however, they will not give up very many goals this year, and teams will have to work hard to score, after watching their back line and rookie goal keeper handle themselves so far.  The Warrior back line with 6'3" Jr Emmanuel Caicedo; 6'0" Jr. Gavin Neuendorf ; 5'11" Sr, Cooper D'Ambrosio; and 5'9" Sr Zane Lombardo are a formidable back line based on the 5 games I have watched, especially Caicedo who is listed at 190lbs but is probably more like 200-210.  Nuendorf, D'Ambrosio and particularly Caicedo are big, quick, physically fit defenders that will shut down many top scorers!!  They also definitely have added punch on the offensive side this year with speedy youngsters Alex Fazzino, Justen Jensen, and the now more experienced 5'11' Jr. Tyler Jones and 6'2" So Xavier Doran. When Adam Traxler returns, he will provide offensive punch as well. 

However, nobody really wants to be ranked #1 or even #10, now!!  Therefore, ECSU needs to play more games with the real test being to defeat UMB on Oct 10th, (a dangerously talented team of scorers, with a VG defense and Goalkeeper), before I would feel confident they are a top 10-15 team! 

[D3soccerwatcher]

Looking forward to Wild Wednesday.  Here are just a few of the great match-ups that will reverberate for at least a week or so.

Oneonta vs RPI
OWU vs ONU
Loras vs Chicago
Haverford vs Montclair
E'town vs F&M
Gettysburg vs Messiah
WPI vs Brandeis
Stevens vs Vassar
John Carroll vs Case Western

The two Pennsylvania games should be exciting:
Etown vs F&M
Gettysburg vs Messiah
The combined record of these four teams is 18-1 (with Messiah currently carrying the only loss in the bunch).  These teams are in relatively close proximity to each other in Central Pennsylvania so they know each other well.  My call is F&M and Messiah will emerge as victors on Wednesday night.  But we will see.

In the Mid-West the Loras vs Chicago game should a good one.
Loras is energized after their exciting win over Wheaton (IL) and Chicago comes in at 5-0.  I'm going with the Swarm on this one.

Wednesday should fun.