2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

I think it's still very early.  I think most of us overreact to results that seem worse than they are.  I expect most or all of these teams to make the tournament and be a team you don't want to play or even favorites.  Losing early, IF YOU RECOVER, can be a good thing and take some pressure off.  Being undefeated tends to take on a pressure all it's own.  Let's look a few of them...

Loras -- I and maybe others were ready to make them the #1 team, so I don't make much of an away loss to a team that is now going to be ranked.  2-0 is deceiving (often that is the case) as DePauw scored early, Loras chased the equalizer for the rest of the game and then conceded another goal late.  Game could have gone either way, in other words.

Trinity -- They WERE the #1 team, so they had been doing something right.  I they had a string of their toughest games, survived one, then a surprise loss, and then a loss today that if you were picking a game they might lose it would be this one away at Colorado College.  I'd be very surprised if they don't run off 10-12 straight Ws.

OWU -- At  5-2-1, they are actually AHEAD of where they were last year, at 4-2-1.  Time will tell if they have Final Four potential like last year's squad, but in reality they only lost a 1-0 game away at a rival in Ohio Northern (who needed a big win) and then today the scoreline looks much worse that it was.  I actually would have favored them to win when they were only down 2-1, but they went down a man and the game eventually got out of hand.  They also were missing two starters.  Don't know why.

Wheaton and Oneonta -- Same deal.  For Wheaton, most would have predicted an away loss at Loras.  They also lost narrowly 3-2 to a Wash U team that has turned out to be impressive.  To be honest, out of all of their stumbles the one that would concern me the most is the draw with Rose Hulman.  Remember they have a new coach.  They will get on a roll.  And Oneonta had narrow losses to Williams away and also away to undefeated RPI.  Last night's win over Montclair shows they are still very much in the mix.

[Mr.Right]

One thing I agree with the NSCAA rankings is keeping your 2014 National champion #1 until they get a loss or draw. It is ridiculous that Tufts is not #1 in D3 soccer polls and please do not give me who they have played or the few games they have played.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

One thing I agree with the NSCAA rankings is keeping your 2014 National champion #1 until they get a loss or draw. It is ridiculous that Tufts is not #1 in D3 soccer polls and please do not give me who they have played or the few games they have played.

I agree 100%! How they got bumped is ridiculous. It's their title to defend and if they haven't lost yet then how can you knock them for it?

[Corazon]

I would agree with you if it was the same team as the one that won the NCAAs last year.

[blooter442]

One thing I agree with the NSCAA rankings is keeping your 2014 National champion #1 until they get a loss or draw. It is ridiculous that Tufts is not #1 in D3 soccer polls and please do not give me who they have played or the few games they have played.

112% agreed. In addition to being defending champs, the fact that there's been a ton of parity this year and yet they haven't lost a game yet puts them above everyone else at this point.

[PaulNewman]

Ummm....I think they are #1.  And they should remain so.  They may well be the best team.  But the results thus far are thin.  They've beaten Colby, Conn (barely), and Trinity.  Those are solid wins but certainly towards the bottom end of NESCAC.  It would be more clear-cut if they also had a win already over a Wheaton (MA) or Babson or maybe even a SLU or Plattsburgh.  The Brandeis game will help, although I'm not sure the Judges can score enough to have a real chance.

[Nutmeg]

Ummm....I think they are #1.  And they should remain so.  They may well be the best team.  But the results thus far are thin.  They've beaten Colby, Conn (barely), and Trinity.  Those are solid wins but certainly towards the bottom end of NESCAC.  It would be more clear-cut if they also had a win already over a Wheaton (MA) or Babson or maybe even a SLU or Plattsburgh.  The Brandeis game will help, although I'm not sure the Judges can score enough to have a real chance.

Agreed they should be first. NCAC, have u seen conn college play? They are a good team, tough in the midfield.....

[Nutmeg]

I think it's still very early.  I think most of us overreact to results that seem worse than they are.  I expect most or all of these teams to make the tournament and be a team you don't want to play or even favorites.  Losing early, IF YOU RECOVER, can be a good thing and take some pressure off.  Being undefeated tends to take on a pressure all it's own.  Let's look a few of them...

Loras -- I and maybe others were ready to make them the #1 team, so I don't make much of an away loss to a team that is now going to be ranked.  2-0 is deceiving (often that is the case) as DePauw scored early, Loras chased the equalizer for the rest of the game and then conceded another goal late.  Game could have gone either way, in other words.

Trinity -- They WERE the #1 team, so they had been doing something right.  I they had a string of their toughest games, survived one, then a surprise loss, and then a loss today that if you were picking a game they might lose it would be this one away at Colorado College.  I'd be very surprised if they don't run off 10-12 straight Ws.

OWU -- At  5-2-1, they are actually AHEAD of where they were last year, at 4-2-1.  Time will tell if they have Final Four potential like last year's squad, but in reality they only lost a 1-0 game away at a rival in Ohio Northern (who needed a big win) and then today the scoreline looks much worse that it was.  I actually would have favored them to win when they were only down 2-1, but they went down a man and the game eventually got out of hand.  They also were missing two starters.  Don't know why.

Wheaton and Oneonta -- Same deal.  For Wheaton, most would have predicted an away loss at Loras.  They also lost narrowly 3-2 to a Wash U team that has turned out to be impressive.  To be honest, out of all of their stumbles the one that would concern me the most is the draw with Rose Hulman.  Remember they have a new coach.  They will get on a roll.  And Oneonta had narrow losses to Williams away and also away to undefeated RPI.  Last night's win over Montclair shows they are still very much in the mix.

I tend to agree with this analysis......

[PaulNewman]

Ummm....I think they are #1.  And they should remain so.  They may well be the best team.  But the results thus far are thin.  They've beaten Colby, Conn (barely), and Trinity.  Those are solid wins but certainly towards the bottom end of NESCAC.  It would be more clear-cut if they also had a win already over a Wheaton (MA) or Babson or maybe even a SLU or Plattsburgh.  The Brandeis game will help, although I'm not sure the Judges can score enough to have a real chance.

Agreed they should be first. NCAC, have u seen conn college play? They are a good team, tough in the midfield.....

Not sure what the argument is about.  Tufts is #1 in one poll and #2 in another.  Not much room there to move higher.  They certainly aren't being disrespected.  This week they may be #1 in both polls, and you'll get no argument from me if that happens.  They have enough returning players and have started solidly enough to be voted #1.  That said, this isn't a monarchy for gosh sakes.  I don't know about any polls in any other sport or division where you're ranked the following year SOLELY based on where you finished last year.  The first NSCAA poll is actually laziness as teams are just slotted exactly where they finished the year before.  If a team loses 8 or 9 starters it would make no sense to presumptively be placed where you were the year before.  In any case, we'll get a much better idea about Tufts being #1 over their next 5 games -- Brandeis, @Wesleyan, @Amherst, @Hamilton, Middlebury.

As for Conn College, I'm no expert on the Camels.  I said in the other post that Conn was a solid, close win for Tufts (a home game remember).  I know they have some very good players.  I could see them possibly winning a game or two in the NCAA tournament, but to even have ANY chance at that they must finish in the top 4-5 of the NESCAC.  Do you see them finishing that high?  They beat Mitchell 1-0 and a 1-6 Coast Guard team 2-0 on 2 own goals.  And do you really want to say that they may have the 2nd best midfield in the entire country?  Not sure how one could reach that conclusion unless you are truly comfortable that you have a good read on all of the midfields outside of the NESCAC.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Hero Sports Rankings (formerly Bennett Rankings).  Strength of conference drastically influences ranking...

1 Tufts   
2 Amherst 
3 Franklin & Marshall
4 Calvin
5 Montclair State 
6 Loras 
7 Bowdoin   
8 Kenyon
9 Rutgers-Newark
10 Messiah
11 SUNY_Oneonta
12 Brandeis
13 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
14 Middlebury   
15 Williams
16 Saint Lawrence
17 Chicago
18 Stevens
19 Wesleyan
20 Dickinson
21 Haverford
22 Christopher Newport
23 North Park
24 Wheaton (MA) 
25 Muhlenberg
26 Wheaton (IL)
27 Rochester
28 Rutgers-Camden
29 Gustavus Adolphus
30 Trinity Logo Trinity

[lastguyoffthebench]

MASSEY RATINGS

1 Tufts
2 Rensselaer
3 Amherst
4 Kenyon
5 Frank & Marsh
6 Plattsburgh St
7 Calvin
8 WI Whitewater
9 St Lawrence
10 MA Boston
11 Loras
12 Eastern 
13 Whitworth
14 SUNY Oneonta
15 Montclair St
16 Thomas More
17 Denison
18 Rowan 
19 Brandeis
20 R Stockton
21 Chris Newport
22 Cortland St
23 Chicago
24 Hobart-Smith
25 E Connecticut
--------------------
26 Lycoming
27 Messiah
28 Case Western
29 Gettysburg
30 SUNY Potsdam

[lastguyoffthebench]

NSCAA PROJECTIONS:

Central:  Calvin, Chicago, North Park
East:  RPI, SLU, Plattsburgh St, Oneonta St.
Great Lakes:  Kenyon, Denison, CMU, Thomas More
Mid-Atlantic:  F&M, Eastern, Gettysburg, Drew
New England:  Tufts, Amherst, ECSU, Brandeis, MA Boston
North:  UWW, Loras, St. John's, UWO
South-Atlantic:  CNU, MSU, Rowan, Stockton
West:  Whitworth, Colorado, UT-Dallas

National Rankings
1.  Tufts
2.  Kenyon
3.  F&M
4.  RPI
5.  CNU
6.  Calvin
7.  UWW
8.  Whitworth
9.  Amherst
10. Denison
11. Loras
12. SLU
13. MSU
14. Chicago
15. Colorado
16. Eastern
17. CMU
18. ESCU
19. UT-Dallas
20. Rowan
21. Gettysburg
22. Plattsburgh St
23. North Park
24. Brandeis
25. Thomas More

RV:  Drew, MA Boston, Stockton, UWO, Oneonta St.

[PaulNewman]

I like your top 10, except....#10 seems a little high for Denison, #6 seems just a bit high for Calvin, and #9 seems too low for Amherst.  You also don't have DePauw at all.  The other ratings systems are highly problematic.  DePauw doesn't make either list and Denison only appears on one of them.  Not to mention Wabash and OWU.

NCAC Top 10

Tufts
F&M
Kenyon
Amherst
Whitworth
RPI
Chris Newport
UW-W
Calvin
Plattsburgh

Denison and DePauw should be in 13-18 range, along with Thomas More. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Struggled with DePauw's slot:  A draw vs K-zoo and a W over Loras...

I could easily see them bumping CMU, and with Thomas More convincing win over OWU, I could see them sliding ahead of CMU as well.   As you know, it all depends on the voters.

Amherst was #10 in the last poll and with MSU losing, they will slide up to the highest possible slot (#9) in the NSCAA format.

Denison was #12 in the last poll and with Loras dropping a game, they remain one of the few unbeaten, so #10 seems fitting.

Will unbeaten MA Boston bump 1 loss Brandeis (who's loss to Trinity is looking not as strong)?

Will E-town still RV after falling to #3 F&M? 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

The Hero Rankings would be the last poll I would consider when checking out rankings. Not sure how credible they are. Massey is the way to go along with D3soccer and NSCAA.