2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

Brandeis 1 Tufts 0

Missed the first 5 minutes because of gameday traffic.

For the first 15 minutes I observed Tufts was dominating and Brandeis was having trouble getting out of their own half.  Brandeis looked like they finally caught up to the game around the 20 minute mark and evened out the play for the next 10 minutes or so, and late in that stretch Brandeis got the goal they needed.  Can't remember if it was a corner or a free kick where Tufts played the ball out but to a Brandeis player who made a pass out wide enabling the Judges to get in a secondary cross that was whipped in nicely for a finishing header.  The kid made a good play to get the cross off.  Looked like Greenwood might have gotten a hand on it but a clean goal nonetheless. 

The rest of the game from that point was really about Tufts pressuring and trying to get the equalizer while Brandeis mainly defended and defended well.  Brandeis had virtually no offense at all, and it's even more obvious to me how much they miss Soboff and Savonen.  Ocel and Picard are good in the midfield and can be offensive but there is no one on the other end for them to work off of.  Bradley has good speed and will probably get some good chances against lesser teams, but he's not a super-skilled or dynamic target man at this point.  Lanahan was very solid and a presence in the back, but D3 soccer DPOY is a little generous.  Didn't see that.  Lynch is superb.  He makes all of the little plays -- tackles, winning headers, and a calm header back to his own GK inside the box around the 2 minute mark to ease the pressure during what was maybe Tuft's last sequence to have a good scoring chance.  The Brandeis right back also played very well.  Thought there other CB and the GK might be a little shaky.  I wouldn't say Brandeis won the midfield battle, but they were disruptive with strong tackling.  Tufts controlled possession basically throughout the game but never really had a rhythm.  The first goal is always so huge.  Brandeis could remain pretty comfortable defending with a lead.  Tufts in my opinion is the better team, by a clear margin, but Brandeis is good enough and has enough of a reputation with their own swagger that on a day they are able to beat a top team like Tufts.  That said, Tufts' midfield did not look like the best midfield in the country.  Kayne was great and better with more impact as the game wore on.  He had trouble getting the ball enough maybe because the play was choppy and Brandeis was so disruptive, but he is a real talent.  His ball to Majumber was a perfect ball.  Could not tell if he was offsides from my vantage point but the call was made without hesitation and I didn't see much complaining out of Tufts (and they did have an assistant coach who yelled and screamed and worked the refs for the whole game).  Connor Brown had his moments and he made a play into the box that was a classic play for a goal or to draw a PK.  Brandeis did well to avoid fouling him.  And actually if Kayne had let the ball go through on his bicycle kick play Brown might have had an open net to shoot on.  The other Tufts midfielders for my money were mostly invisible and in fact the subs looked just as good or better.  Tufts is much deeper with little drop-off in quality.  The other two Tufts notables were Patel and Mujumber.  Tufts' best chances other than the couple noted above were Patel's in-swinging corner kicks.  He looked he might eventually put one in on his own.  He is a nice looking player and I wonder what he might do up top.  Majumber obviously is very good and a great target man.  He is bigger and more physical than I thought and actually one of the chippier players for Tufts.  As an aside, Brandeis deserved more yellows than Tufts because of the sustained defending and need to disrupt sequences that looked dangerous, but it shouldn't have been 5-0.  Tufts got away with a couple of nasty plays themselves.  Majumber, though, really never had any clean chances, and I thought it was odd that he was playing as a lone striker.  Given Tufts superiority with possession and the amount of time in the Brandeis half I thought they might have played with two up top. 

RE:  the Tufts CBs.  This game didn't tell us much because they weren't tested by quality strikers.  Sullivan is HUGE and seems to relish the enforcer role for Tufts. 

Brandeis' bug-a-boo is going to be difficulty scoring.  They've won 5 or 6 games in a row 1-0, against both weak and strong competition.  Eventually that will catch up to them.  But they are experienced, used to winning, and I was impressed that their celebration at the end of the game was very muted.  They certainly didn't act like they had pulled off a huge upset.

Tufts will be fine.  I was very impressed seeing them for the first time in person.  They are athletic all over the field and very skilled, although, like I said, I wasn't blown away by their midfield in general.

Very enjoyable college soccer game.

[blooter442]

Great recap NCAC. Agree that Tufts is the superior side, but Brandeis was good value for their win. They certainly threw everything at Brandeis but didn't create any clear cut chances aside from the Majumder one that was offsides. Was surprised by how quiet he was kept. Lanahan is and was a presence but Lynch was MotM for me.

There's certainly a difference between being fast and being a dynamic player, and I think Bradley is the former. The Judges really need to sort things out up front, particularly who plays CF. Still think Kayne and Majumder are excellent players and could give Amherst a handful next weekend.

[Brother Flounder]

Brandeis 1 Tufts 0

Missed the first 5 minutes because of gameday traffic.

For the first 15 minutes I observed Tufts was dominating and Brandeis was having trouble getting out of their own half.  Brandeis looked like they finally caught up to the game around the 20 minute mark and evened out the play for the next 10 minutes or so, and late in that stretch Brandeis got the goal they needed.  Can't remember if it was a corner or a free kick where Tufts played the ball out but to a Brandeis player who made a pass out wide enabling the Judges to get in a secondary cross that was whipped in nicely for a finishing header.  The kid made a good play to get the cross off.  Looked like Greenwood might have gotten a hand on it but a clean goal nonetheless. 

The rest of the game from that point was really about Tufts pressuring and trying to get the equalizer while Brandeis mainly defended and defended well.  Brandeis had virtually no offense at all, and it's even more obvious to me how much they miss Soboff and Savonen.  Ocel and Picard are good in the midfield and can be offensive but there is no one on the other end for them to work off of.  Bradley has good speed and will probably get some good chances against lesser teams, but he's not a super-skilled or dynamic target man at this point.  Lanahan was very solid and a presence in the back, but D3 soccer DPOY is a little generous.  Didn't see that.  Lynch is superb.  He makes all of the little plays -- tackles, winning headers, and a calm header back to his own GK inside the box around the 2 minute mark to ease the pressure during what was maybe Tuft's last sequence to have a good scoring chance.  The Brandeis right back also played very well.  Thought there other CB and the GK might be a little shaky.  I wouldn't say Brandeis won the midfield battle, but they were disruptive with strong tackling.  Tufts controlled possession basically throughout the game but never really had a rhythm.  The first goal is always so huge.  Brandeis could remain pretty comfortable defending with a lead.  Tufts in my opinion is the better team, by a clear margin, but Brandeis is good enough and has enough of a reputation with their own swagger that on a day they are able to beat a top team like Tufts.  That said, Tufts' midfield did not look like the best midfield in the country.  Kayne was great and better with more impact as the game wore on.  He had trouble getting the ball enough maybe because the play was choppy and Brandeis was so disruptive, but he is a real talent.  His ball to Majumber was a perfect ball.  Could not tell if he was offsides from my vantage point but the call was made without hesitation and I didn't see much complaining out of Tufts (and they did have an assistant coach who yelled and screamed and worked the refs for the whole game).  Connor Brown had his moments and he made a play into the box that was a classic play for a goal or to draw a PK.  Brandeis did well to avoid fouling him.  And actually if Kayne had let the ball go through on his bicycle kick play Brown might have had an open net to shoot on.  The other Tufts midfielders for my money were mostly invisible and in fact the subs looked just as good or better.  Tufts is much deeper with little drop-off in quality.  The other two Tufts notables were Patel and Mujumber.  Tufts' best chances other than the couple noted above were Patel's in-swinging corner kicks.  He looked he might eventually put one in on his own.  He is a nice looking player and I wonder what he might do up top.  Majumber obviously is very good and a great target man.  He is bigger and more physical than I thought and actually one of the chippier players for Tufts.  As an aside, Brandeis deserved more yellows than Tufts because of the sustained defending and need to disrupt sequences that looked dangerous, but it shouldn't have been 5-0.  Tufts got away with a couple of nasty plays themselves.  Majumber, though, really never had any clean chances, and I thought it was odd that he was playing as a lone striker.  Given Tufts superiority with possession and the amount of time in the Brandeis half I thought they might have played with two up top. 

RE:  the Tufts CBs.  This game didn't tell us much because they weren't tested by quality strikers.  Sullivan is HUGE and seems to relish the enforcer role for Tufts. 

Brandeis' bug-a-boo is going to be difficulty scoring.  They've won 5 or 6 games in a row 1-0, against both weak and strong competition.  Eventually that will catch up to them.  But they are experienced, used to winning, and I was impressed that their celebration at the end of the game was very muted.  They certainly didn't act like they had pulled off a huge upset.

Tufts will be fine.  I was very impressed seeing them for the first time in person.  They are athletic all over the field and very skilled, although, like I said, I wasn't blown away by their midfield in general.

Very enjoyable college soccer game.

I agree excellent analysis. I won't take anything against the Judges. I think they deserved the win.  I do see them having some trouble getting far in the NCAA tourney. I don't see any scorers----but their header goal was sweet.  I also couldn't tell if Majumder was offsides. It was a perfect pass hitting him in stride.  I think the Tufts midfield will be fine.  I think they "took one dribble too much" today and didn't pass as much as they usually do. Kayne's bicycle kick missed by a few inches. If it goes in, it could rival his GIANT SLAYER goal against Messiah last year. I do agree Tufts is the better team and maybe this loss pumps them up.  I certainly wouldn't want to be #1 ranked all through the year... That, with being the current NCAA champs would be too much long term pressure.  They will have to play their best against the Lord Jeffs, especially since the game is in Amherst.  While Kayne and Brown haven't been scoring as much as last year, Brown is dangerous and Kayne "moves" the whole team on the field.  Looking forward to seeing Amherst's top talent against Tufts top talent. Tufts has Wesleyan first and must not look ahead however.

[Gregory Sager]

Was at the North Park-UWO match last night. Very entertaining footy, beautiful weather, great atmosphere from the NP hooligans, best possible way I could've spent my Friday evening. First half Oshkosh came out like gangbusters and hit North Park right in the mouth. They high pressed, moved the ball quick, and found space in behind the Viking's defense. North Park had some stretches towards the final minutes of the first 45 but you could tell they definitely weren't expecting such energy from UWO. The Titans scored off of their high pressing, a shot was coughed up by the keeper and stuffed in the net. UWO kept a good job of keeping Pedram Tahmi-Masoleh quiet.

Halftime 1-0 UWO.

Second half, both teams matched each others intensity at first, NP started gaining more and more possession as the match went on. It got increasingly chippy. Oshkosh had the counter going and drew a penalty in the 80th and converted. However in the 85th a mistake by the Titan's keeper let North Park back into the match at 2-1. UWO eventually held on for the W.

I predict that both of these squads will be forces to reckoned with during the second half of the season.

This is a pretty accurate description of the match. NPU was simply not ready for this match at the start. I think that the schedule for the Vikings has ended up being a little lighter than usual, with usually solid opponents such as Aurora and Dominican being quite a bit down from their traditional levels of play. UWO just plain blitzed NPU during the first half, but some of that was lackluster effort on the part of the Vikings, especially in the corners. On several occasions NPU defenders simply gave up on open-field balls heading into the corner that the Titans chased down and kept active. Midfield was a mess in the first half for North Park as well, as the Vikings are really feeling the absence of their injured two-time All-CCIW center mid Diego Lashlee (whom they hope to have back early in the CCIW portion of the season). As Wisco21 noted, UWO really did a nice job of blanketing NPU star Pedram Tahmi-Masoleh, who is one of D3's premier offensive threats.

NPU really picked up the pace in the last thirty minutes of the match, with Tahmi-Masoleh opportunistically putting home a mishandle by the UWO keeper in the 85th minute, five minutes after the Titans had gone up 2-0 on the penalty kick. The final three minutes were very hairy, with NPU's Kebba Sanyang going high on an unopposed 20-yarder and the UWO keeper coming out of the net to make a great sliding grab of a through ball a heartbeat before an unopposed Tahmi-Masoleh got there. The match ended with a mad scramble in front of the Titans net after a free kick, followed by a corner kick that the Vikings couldn't get off effectively as the horn sounded. Great energy from the crowd. Exciting match, and, as Wisco21 said, both sides look like they can make some noise down the road. Despite the loss, I think that this contest was what NPU needed in order to kick it up a notch as the Vikes head into CCIW play -- especially with UW-Whitewater looming next Thursday as the Park's final non-con opponent prior to the start of CCIW play.

[PaulNewman]

Major win for WPI over Wheaton (MA).

Denison cannot buy a single call on their home field.  Getting manhandled but somehow up 1-0 at the half.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Stockton 1, MSU 0.    Thought the game started at 7, but I guess it was moved up.  Live Stats shows game over.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Ehhh maybe it's just half time in Montclair.... Computer error

[PaulNewman]

Impressive win for Gettysburg away at Muhlenberg.

Schaefer for OWU with a phenomenal goal from a difficult angle 20+ yards out.  Denison did manage to hold on to a draw.  OWU had the upper hand after tying up the game although both teams had chances.  OWU started playing long ball which got Schaefer his shot, and the Battling Bishops moved players all over the field into different positions the whole game.  Defenders starting up top or in the midfield, then moving back, switching sides, going from up top to the back.  Not sure what is going on with all that but at a minimum may create some confusion for the opposition.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Messiah handles Misericordia 4-1 on what looks like a fairly lopsided box score -- 21 to 8 on shots -- 7 to 3 SOG's

[Soccer Balls]

Great recap NCAC. Agree that Tufts is the superior side, but Brandeis was good value for their win. They certainly threw everything at Brandeis but didn't create any clear cut chances aside from the Majumder one that was offsides. Was surprised by how quiet he was kept. Lanahan is and was a presence but Lynch was MotM for me.

There's certainly a difference between being fast and being a dynamic player, and I think Bradley is the former. The Judges really need to sort things out up front, particularly who plays CF. Still think Kayne and Majumder are excellent players and could give Amherst a handful next weekend.

UGLY SOCCER game. Very little soccer played, a lot of LONG BALL.
Both teams CAN play, but maybe it was the choppy grass  field. Would have liked to see these teams try to PLAY on a turf field.
Not much between these sides. Majunder the best on the field. Brandeis missing Jastremski, Miskin and Hacunda. Makes  their win more impressive.

[PaulNewman]

The NCAC Comprehensive Review

Housekeeping Issues

Well, not sure there is any way for Kenyon to avoid the #1 ranking this week.  F&M is 9-0 and has been steady but not spectacular so hard to see an argument for the Diplomats leapfrogging the Lords.  Amherst is a strong candidate but I doubt a double OT win over Williams in the last 30 seconds will be enough to jump the Lord Jeffs into the top spot, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Amherst there in another week or two.  Then there is Whitworth, who along with F&M, as I said previously, has a very good chance to run the table.  RPI is 8-0 and right in the mix as well.  Calvin is another team with a great chance to remain undefeated, but the Knights still have that opening day draw to Endicott on their balance sheet.  I mentioned to my wife that Kenyon likely was going to #1 this coming week, and in between some mumbling I tuned out about Taylor Swift and Aerosmith her only comment was "That won't last, when do they play OWU?"

There are only 6 unblemished teams left....Kenyon, F&M, Whitworth, Amherst, RPI and UMass-Boston (rarified air indeed for the Beacons).  Among the other 9 unbeaten teams with one or more draws the pick of the litter would appear to be Christopher Newport, Calvin, Gettysburg (one of the year's real surprises), and maybe Eastern.  There are of course a bunch of 1 loss teams like Tufts and Brandeis, and also Montclair, Rutgers-Camden, Rowan, Carnegie Mellon very much in the mix, and some multiple blemished teams like Oneonta, SLU, Loras, Wheaton (ILL) and OWU who we all know will be heard from again and/or even favored as we head into tourney time.

From here on out until we get to Selection Sunday (or Monday or whatever it is), we will be in the thick of conference play.  For some, like in the NESCAC, NJAC, NCAC, UAA, SUNYAC, Centennial, Liberty, etc, this will be like entering a cauldron of fire.  For others, presumably like Calvin, a Dominican, Wheaton (Ill) except for North Park, and maybe Loras, heading into conference play brings a safe haven.  Of course some of these leagues will be one bid conferences, and so even the relatively weaker conferences may have one or two contests that will decide the whole ball of wax.  Then the are conferences like the ODAC (Roanoke, Lynchburg, Virginia Wesleyan, W&L, etc) and MIAC (St Olaf, Macalester, St Johns, and usual power GAC already at 0-2 in the conference) that are just too difficult to figure out, where every team has at least multiple losses and you can find a team that is 4-5 but 3-0 in conference.

Now let's take a ride around the horn....

New England

Tufts @Amherst looms for next Saturday, a game that may go a long way towards deciding the regular season winner and top seed for the NESCAC tournament.  BEFORE that, both superpowers face trap games ON THE ROAD.  Tufts' is more important, taking on suddenly offense happy Wesleyan (and Cowie-Haskie who responded to Mr.Right's all points bulletin with a hat trick vs Bates).  Amherst heads to WPI, a squad coming off a key win over Wheaton (MA) and very much needing an even bigger signature win if the Engineers end up needing an at-large bid.  WPI is 8-1-1 but the draw at MCLA is a real downer.

There is a real logjam in the NESCAC beyond Amherst and Tufts.  Middlebury, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Williams, and maybe Conn College are going to tussle right down to the wire for perhaps two more NCAA berths.  Williams really cannot afford more than 1 or 2 missteps from here, and in addition to the NESCAC gauntlet they have RPI, Babson, and tricky Endicott.  The focus will be on Tufts @Amherst next weekend, but Conn @Williams is HUGE.  Middlebury seems to be gaining some favor, and they should pick up a couple of wins before a 10/10 mega-clash @Tufts.  The waters are still just too murky to guess how 3 through 6 are going to turn out.

The NEWMAC is looking like a one or at most two bid league at the moment.  MIT very quietly is 6-1 and coming off a big win over Babson.  They should get a couple more wins before going on the road for Brandeis and Wheaton (MA).  Babson has been a disappointment, but the Beavers, along with Wheaton, WPI, MIT and maybe even 7-1 Springfield could get hot and run through the NEWMAC tournament.  Babson could do themselves a nice favor by knocking off high-flying RPI today at home.

Elsewhere, Curry dropped their first game to Nichols, and Wentworth has lost 3 straight.  Endicott is a surprising 6-1-1 with games at Curry (10/10) and home for Williams (10/13) approaching.  Gordon is right back in the mix and should be home free for more wins until heading to Tufts on 10/13.  ECSU should pad the resume in the next two, but then comes Conn College and the in-conference blockbuster with unblemished UMass-Boston.  The Beacons should remain unblemished for two more heading into @Babson and home to ECSU.  The UMass-Boston season is becoming one of the narratives of the year, and D3Soccer might do well to take on an inside-the program exclusive as I'm sure there are some great individual stories (and Mr.Right also would be great for this).  I thought seeing the Beacons going on a PAC NW trip was about as likely as catching Whitey Bulger.  Brilliant move by Coach Beverlin, and I'm sure great for team-building, and he must be considered an early candidate for NCOY.

Somehow I forgot Brandeis.  The Judges fresh off the big Tufts win also have a mid-week difficult road game at Wheaton (MA) before hosting Carnegie Mellon next weekend.  They should get a boost if a couple of injured players return, and they may host a weekend, but I have trouble seeing them win four games in a row in the NCAA tournament unless the discover some offensive firepower.  That said, the Judges are battle-tested and will be a tough out.

Other regions to come....

[ECSUalum]

The NCAC Comprehensive Review

Housekeeping Issues

Well, not sure there is any way for Kenyon to avoid the #1 ranking this week.  F&M is 9-0 and has been steady but not spectacular so hard to see an argument for the Diplomats leapfrogging the Lords.  Amherst is a strong candidate but I doubt a double OT win over Williams in the last 30 seconds will be enough to jump the Lord Jeffs into the top spot but I wouldn't be surprised to see Amherst there in another week or two.  Then there is Whitworth, who along with F&M, as I said previously, has a very good chance to run the table.  RPI is 8-0 and right in the mix as well.  Calvin is another team with a great chance to remain undefeated, but the Knights still have that opening day draw to Endicott on their balance sheet.  I mentioned to my wife that Kenyon likely was going to #1 this coming week, and in between some mumbling I tuned out about Taylor Swift and Aerosmith her only comment was "That won't last, when do they play OWU?"

There are only 6 unblemished teams left....Kenyon, F&M, Whitworth, Amherst, RPI and UMass-Boston (rarified air indeed for the Beacons).  Among the other 9 unbeaten teams with one or more draws the pick of the litter would appear to be Christopher Newport, Calvin, Gettysburg (one of the year's real surprises), and maybe Eastern.  There are of course a bunch of 1 loss teams like Tufts and Brandeis, and also Montclair, Rutgers-Camden, Rowan, Carnegie Mellon very much in the mix, and some multiple blemished teams like Oneonta, SLU, Loras, Wheaton (ILL) and OWU who we all know will be heard from again and/or even favored as we head into tourney time.

From here on out until we get to Selection Sunday (or Monday or whatever it is), we will be in the thick of conference play.  For some, like in the NESCAC, NJAC, NCAC, UAA, SUNYAC, Centennial, Liberty, etc, this will be like entering a cauldron of fire.  For others, presumably like Calvin, a Dominican, Wheaton (Ill) except for North Park, and maybe Loras, heading into conference play brings a safe haven.  Of course some of these leagues will be one bid conferences, and so even the relatively weaker conferences may have one or two contests that will decide the whole ball of wax.  Then the are conferences like the ODAC (Roanoke, Lynchburg, Virginia Wesleyan, W&L, etc) and MIAC (St Olaf, Macalester, St Johns, and usual power GAC already at 0-2 in the conference) that are just too difficult to figure out, where every team has at least multiple losses and you can find a team that is 4-5 but 3-0 in conference.

Now let's take a ride around the horn....

New England

Tufts @Amherst looms for next Saturday, a game that may go a long way towards deciding the regular season winner and top seed for the NESCAC tournament.  BEFORE that, both superpowers face trap games ON THE ROAD.  Tufts' is more important, taking on suddenly offense happy Wesleyan (and Cowie-Haskie who responded to Mr.Right's all points bulletin with a hat trick vs Bates).  Amherst heads to WPI, a squad coming off a key win over Wheaton (MA) and very much needing an even bigger signature win if the Engineers end up needing an at-large bid.  WPI is 8-1-1 but the draw at MCLA is a real downer.

There is a real logjam in the NESCAC beyond Amherst and Tufts.  Middlebury, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Williams, and maybe Conn College are going to tussle right down to the wire for perhaps two more NCAA berths.  Williams really cannot afford more than 1 or 2 missteps from here, and in addition to the NESCAC gauntlet they have RPI, Babson, and tricky Endicott.  The focus will be on Tufts @Amherst next weekend, but Conn @Williams is HUGE.  Middlebury seems to be gaining some favor, and they should pick up a couple of wins before a 10/10 mega-clash @Tufts.  The waters are still just too murky to guess how 3 through 6 are going to turn out.

The NEWMAC is looking like a one or at most two bid league at the moment.  MIT very quietly is 6-1 and coming off a big win over Babson.  They should get a couple more wins before going on the road for Brandeis and Wheaton (MA).  Babson has been a disappointment, but the Beavers, along with Wheaton, WPI, MIT and maybe even 7-1 Springfield could get hot and run through the NEWMAC tournament.  Babson could do themselves a nice favor by knocking off high-flying RPI today at home.

Elsewhere, Curry dropped their first game to Nichols, and Wentworth has lost 3 straight.  Endicott is a surprising 6-1-1 with games at Curry (10/10) and home for Williams (10/13) approaching.  Gordon is right back in the mix and should be home free for more wins until heading to Tufts on 10/13.  ECSU should pad the resume in the next two, but then comes Conn College and the in-conference blockbuster with unblemished UMass-Boston.  The Beacons should remain unblemished for two more heading into @Babson and home to ECSU.  The UMass-Boston season is becoming one of the narratives of the year, and D3Soccer might do well to take on an inside-the program exclusive as I'm sure there are some great individual stories (and Mr.Right also would be great for this).

Other regions to come....

NCAC,
Nice job on this review!!+k

[PaulNewman]

East

The SUNYAC is a mess!  Looks like Oneonta is going to emerge after early out-of-conference stumbles, but there is a long way to go.  Plattsburgh followed up the SLU loss with a draw to 6-2-1 Potsdam.  Cortland is in deep trouble with an 0-2 start in-conference.  Brockport, Geneseo and Buffalo State are hanging on for dear life. 

SLU and RPI look good in the Liberty and both should get bids as long as one of them wins their tournament.  Skidmore at 5-2 and Hobart at 5-1-1 are challengers.  Vassar looks like a longshot.  Rochester looks to be just about where we always expect them....4-2-2, just on the right side of mediocre and may again ride something like a 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 UAA record to yet another NCAA bid.  Stevens is 5-1-2 but two draws against Elmira and Houghton hurt, although winning the conference will provide them an out.  And then there is Keuka at 6-0-1.

Expect Oneonta, RPI, SLU and maybe Plattsburgh and Rochester to be the cream that emerges at the top in the East.

Mid-Atlantic

Lycoming earned an important 0-0 draw @Rochester last night.  They should rack up wins heading into a home tilt with Messiah on 10/14.  I think they'll have a shot at an at-large bid if Messiah takes the tourney crown as expected (ordained?).

At least until Messiah gets its act fully together, F&M appears to be the class of the region. They should rather easily get four more wins before a stretch of @Hopkins, @Haverford, and @Gettysburg.  That's a real gauntlet and may tell us if F&M is a serious national title contender.  Gettysburg must be for real.  I expected a loss by now.  They have Hopkins and Haverford next.  Haverford at 5-3 is a good side that needs some key results to go their way, like @Gettysburg (10/3) and @Rutgers-Camden (10/7).  The Camden game will be must-see TV, except Camden doesn't have video as Camden looks for payback after last year's 7-3 loss that maybe kept them out of the tournament.  Dickinson is 5-2-1 but a draw with Ursinus hurts as tougher foes await.  Hopkins is on the edge at 5-3-1 with away games at Gettysburg and Dickinson next.  E'town hosts Messiah this week and a win would elevate the Bluejays but I'm not expecting that. 

Eastern, at 8-0-1 and Drew at 7-1-1 (but coming off a heavy loss to TNCJ) are the unknowns, at least for this correspondent, but they both have to be considered in play at this time.  Then there are Cabrini (6-1-2) and King's (7-2) about whom I am clueless.

When all is said and done, I think we're looking at F&M, Messiah, Gettysburg (if they can stay on course), Eastern, maybe Lycoming, and probably one more Centennial squad in the Mid-Atlantic.

South Atlantic

I see Christopher Newport running the table with a strong chance of hosting two weekends.  It's in their hands. 

The NJAC is going to an all-out war.  Rowan sent a strong signal that the Messiah wasn't a fluke, hammering a staggering but still in contention Rutgers-Newark side.  Montclair and Rutgers-Camden are going to be tough to knock off the perch, but Rowan is viable and stealthy Kean is 9-1.  TCNJ is 6-2-2 but already 0-2 in-conference.

I'm not a big buyer of Salisbury but the Seagulls will have their chance @CNU on 10/21.

Elsewhere, Birm-Southern sullied their great start with a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Millsaps.  UAA member Emory is at Millsaps today, and at 4-3-1 and with the UAA about to shift into high gear the Eagles cannot afford a loss here.   Millsaps by the way stands at 6-1.  The Oglethorpe Petrels are 6-2-1 with a draw vs Emory and narrow 1-goal losses to Denison and Wheaton (Ill) on their resume.  As noted above, the ODAC is too much of a hornet's nest to even attempt an assessment.

Great Lakes

This is an interesting year in the Great Lakes, with UAA squads Carnegie Mellon (mostly) and Case Western looking good, Thomas More proving to be a thorn in everyone's sides, and Kenyon, Denison, and DePauw starting strong and with OWU still around to put the others in their place. 

I am amazed that, even if overrated, Kenyon is in any position to be ranked #1 in the country.  The Lords lost arguably the best back line in D3, and they are integrating a lot of fresh faces.  Will be interesting to see how the newcomers like Carmona react to the increased intensity of high stakes, rivalry-oriented conference showdowns.  This week is a big one for Kenyon...a likely #1 ranking followed by the best Case Western team in years and then DePauw back-to-back.  That said, the Lords are a remarkable 26-2-2 over their last 30 games, with the only losses being the away trap game at Wabash and the Sweet 16 disaster to OWU.  If Kenyon manages to stay in the top 5 range and can make a deep run Brown should be in the conversation for NCOY.  On the downside, Barnes had to be helped off the field at Centre and he hasn't played since (just a week), and I have no knowledge on how long he will be out.  Speaking of NCOY's, Martin at OWU appears to be earning his money, adjusting game by game and even multiple times within games as OWU apparently awaits the return of a few injured players.  The Denison game last night, ending in a draw, looked like a U10 game where the coach says "OK, you guys play offense for 15 minutes and then go to defense for 15 minutes and then do all of that again in the 2nd half."  A win would have been a major confidence boost for Denison, but they'll live with the draw and be glad they didn't end up tagged with a loss.  DePauw, after beating Loras and then stumbling at home to Rose Hulman in OT, managed to beat Oberlin.  Two years ago it was an Oberlin win @DePauw that ended up being the thin difference between Oberlin getting a third NCAC bid and DePauw missing out.  The Tigers will have another huge opportunity next Saturday @Kenyon, and DePauw has the athleticism and overall talent to play with Kenyon straight up.  The Wabash soft schedule came to roost yesterday as they were saddled with a very soft home draw against Allegheny program that really seems to have slipped the past couple of years. 

Elsewhere, Thomas More is the big story.  They should have another sterling record at season's end.  The OAC is looking a little weak, and a 7-3 Ohio Northern team would appear to be the frontrunner with a big home game with 5-2-1 John Carroll on 10/3.  Penn State-Behrend knocked PS-Altoona from the unbeaten ranks and Rose Hulman is hanging around with impressive road results against Wheaton (Ill) and DePauw.

Carnegie Mellon and Case are going to be heard from all season in the Great Lakes but their fortunes ultimately will be determined by how they survive the UAA multi-city storm.

[PaulNewman]

Central

The top teams in the Central appear to be, in no particular order, Calvin, Chicago, Wheaton (Ill), Wash U, and maybe North Park.  One or more of those could end up on the outside looking in.  As noted I expect Calvin to run the table.  Wheaton, after starting slow, should be fine.  They should rack up a bunch of wins, with the remaining tougher games UW-Oshkosh away on 10/7 and North Park in the last game of the regular season.  Chicago, now 7-2, and Wash U at 5-1-2 will have credible cases for bids if they can go 3-3-1 or better in the UAA....easier said than done.  The disappointment in this region has to be Kalamazoo, a squad that garnered a lot support when they were snubbed last year.  KZoo has one good chance to get back in the picture, but it won't be easy...away @Calvin next Saturday.  Alma is 6-2 but already has a loss to Calvin on board.  Dominican and Milwaukee Engineering should battle for their conference crown, and they face off on 10/10.   Milliken at 7-1 hopes to challenge Wheaton and North Park, and Marian currently at 7-1-1 plans to provide resistance to Dominican and MSOE.  Westminster (MO) should win their conference with relative ease, and they have an in-state showdown with Wash U away on 10/7.

North

The MIAC is struggling.  St Olaf currently is in the conference driver's seat with a 4-0 conference start while being a mediocre 4-4 overall.  Gustavus Adolphus is down, already at 0-2 in-conference.  Macalester is still unbeaten but with an unwhelming 4-0-4 ledger.  St. Johns may be the surprise in the MIAC, standing at 6-1-2 and 2-1 in-conference.  St Olaf @Macalester Saturday should be a good one.  Along St. Johns, St. Thomas is a darkhorse, sporting a 6-2 (2-1 conference)

The UW affiliates -- Whitewater and Oshkosh -- so far have been the outperformers and both should have strong shots at NCAA bids.  The otherwise tepid performance by teams in the North leaves Loras as probably the clear top pick.  While perhaps not as comprehensively dominant as in past years, the Duhawks will prove good enough to make a run to the Final Four.  Matchups might determine whether they are just a Sweet 16 type team or a win or two better than that.  Wartburg and Luther will need to go on a streak of wins to shove themselves into the bids picture.  Luther's next four are @Macalester, @Loras, @UW-Osh, and Wartburg.

In the MWC, the Knox Prairie Fire (really just wanted to say "Prairie Fire") are 6-2-1 but only 1-2 in-conference.  Grinnell is 5-4 overall but 3-0 in-conference.

West

Whitworth is the story thus far in the West....unblemished with a real chance to go unbeaten.  The Pirates, assuming the NCAA allows three teams to travel that far, could be in a position to host two weekends....a far cry from having to spend almost 5 days getting to and staying in Gambier, OH due to travel demands and a day of canceled games.  The Pirates were treated nicely, though, getting premium rooms right on campus at the Kenyon Inn.  This is a team to watch.  They'll be among a handful of favorites in the NCAA tournament and basically no one will know much about them.

Trinity (TX), just after being ranked #1 in the nation, finds itself in a pickle, and now needing help to pull even with or pass Colorado College.  They play again later, but one win over Colorado won't get it done.  One wonders if Trinity (TX) will have enough clout to pull out an extra bid in the West from what the region usually gets.  Texas-Dallas is lurking as well at 8-1-1.

On the actual West Coast, Occidental sits at 7-0-2.  Redlands is 5-2-1.  The Lutes of Pacific Lutheran are 6-2 and 3-0 in-conference, and they get a shot at top-dog Whitworth later today.  Willamette, a real challenger to Whitworth last year into the final weekend, has fallen and is a dreary 1-6-1.

[PaulNewman]

Sounds like Babson announcer is being heard through the whole PA system.  1-1 with RPI deep in 2nd half.