2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[blooter442]

Sounds like Babson announcer is being heard through the whole PA system.  1-1 with RPI deep in 2nd half.

Hah - glad to hear I wasn't the only person thinking that!

Babson seems to be "hanging around." Completely outplayed in the first half, but they've looked better in the second half and got the equalizer - although RPI has looked more dangerous IMHO.

[PaulNewman]

And now we are down to five unblemished.

[PaulNewman]

Whitworth scored in the first 3 minutes against Pac Lutheran and held on for a 1-0 win.  The stats suggest that the game was played pretty evenly.  The Lutes will get another crack at Whitworth, on their own pitch, on 10/24.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

East

The SUNYAC is a mess!  Looks like Oneonta is going to emerge after early out-of-conference stumbles, but there is a long way to go.  Plattsburgh followed up the SLU loss with a draw to 6-2-1 Potsdam.  Cortland is in deep trouble with an 0-2 start in-conference.  Brockport, Geneseo and Buffalo State are hanging on for dear life. 

SLU and RPI look good in the Liberty and both should get bids as long as one of them wins their tournament.  Skidmore at 5-2 and Hobart at 5-1-1 are challengers.  Vassar looks like a longshot.  Rochester looks to be just about where we always expect them....4-2-2, just on the right side of mediocre and may again ride something like a 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 UAA record to yet another NCAA bid.  Stevens is 5-1-2 but two draws against Elmira and Houghton hurt, although winning the conference will provide them an out.  And then there is Keuka at 6-0-1.

Expect Oneonta, RPI, SLU and maybe Plattsburgh and Rochester to be the cream that emerges at the top in the East.

Mid-Atlantic

Lycoming earned an important 0-0 draw @Rochester last night.  They should rack up wins heading into a home tilt with Messiah on 10/14.  I think they'll have a shot at an at-large bid if Messiah takes the tourney crown as expected (ordained?).

At least until Messiah gets its act fully together, F&M appears to be the class of the region. They should rather easily get four more wins before a stretch of @Hopkins, @Haverford, and @Gettysburg.  That's a real gauntlet and may tell us if F&M is a serious national title contender.  Gettysburg must be for real.  I expected a loss by now.  They have Hopkins and Haverford next.  Haverford at 5-3 is a good side that needs some key results to go their way, like @Gettysburg (10/3) and @Rutgers-Camden (10/7).  The Camden game will be must-see TV, except Camden doesn't have video as Camden looks for payback after last year's 7-3 loss that maybe kept them out of the tournament.  Dickinson is 5-2-1 but a draw with Ursinus hurts as tougher foes await.  Hopkins is on the edge at 5-3-1 with away games at Gettysburg and Dickinson next.  E'town hosts Messiah this week and a win would elevate the Bluejays but I'm not expecting that. 

Eastern, at 8-0-1 and Drew at 7-1-1 (but coming off a heavy loss to TNCJ) are the unknowns, at least for this correspondent, but they both have to be considered in play at this time.  Then there are Cabrini (6-1-2) and King's (7-2) about whom I am clueless.

When all is said and done, I think we're looking at F&M, Messiah, Gettysburg (if they can stay on course), Eastern, maybe Lycoming, and probably one more Centennial squad in the Mid-Atlantic.

South Atlantic

I see Christopher Newport running the table with a strong chance of hosting two weekends.  It's in their hands. 

The NJAC is going to an all-out war.  Rowan sent a strong signal that the Messiah wasn't a fluke, hammering a staggering but still in contention Rutgers-Newark side.  Montclair and Rutgers-Camden are going to be tough to knock off the perch, but Rowan is viable and stealthy Kean is 9-1.  TCNJ is 6-2-2 but already 0-2 in-conference.

I'm not a big buyer of Salisbury but the Seagulls will have their chance @CNU on 10/21.

Elsewhere, Birm-Southern sullied their great start with a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Millsaps.  UAA member Emory is at Millsaps today, and at 4-3-1 and with the UAA about to shift into high gear the Eagles cannot afford a loss here.   Millsaps by the way stands at 6-1.  The Oglethorpe Petrels are 6-2-1 with a draw vs Emory and narrow 1-goal losses to Denison and Wheaton (Ill) on their resume.  As noted above, the ODAC is too much of a hornet's nest to even attempt an assessment.

Great Lakes

This is an interesting year in the Great Lakes, with UAA squads Carnegie Mellon (mostly) and Case Western looking good, Thomas More proving to be a thorn in everyone's sides, and Kenyon, Denison, and DePauw starting strong and with OWU still around to put the others in their place. 

I am amazed that, even if overrated, Kenyon is in any position to be ranked #1 in the country.  The Lords lost arguably the best back line in D3, and they are integrating a lot of fresh faces.  Will be interesting to see how the newcomers like Carmona react to the increased intensity of high stakes, rivalry-oriented conference showdowns.  This week is a big one for Kenyon...a likely #1 ranking followed by the best Case Western team in years and then DePauw back-to-back.  That said, the Lords are a remarkable 26-2-2 over their last 30 games, with the only losses being the away trap game at Wabash and the Sweet 16 disaster to OWU.  If Kenyon manages to stay in the top 5 range and can make a deep run Brown should be in the conversation for NCOY.  On the downside, Barnes had to be helped off the field at Centre and he hasn't played since (just a week), and I have no knowledge on how long he will be out.  Speaking of NCOY's, Martin at OWU appears to be earning his money, adjusting game by game and even multiple times within games as OWU apparently awaits the return of a few injured players.  The Denison game last night, ending in a draw, looked like a U10 game where the coach says "OK, you guys play offense for 15 minutes and then go to defense for 15 minutes and then do all of that again in the 2nd half."  A win would have been a major confidence boost for Denison, but they'll live with the draw and be glad they didn't end up tagged with a loss.  DePauw, after beating Loras and then stumbling at home to Rose Hulman in OT, managed to beat Oberlin.  Two years ago it was an Oberlin win @DePauw that ended up being the thin difference between Oberlin getting a third NCAC bid and DePauw missing out.  The Tigers will have another huge opportunity next Saturday @Kenyon, and DePauw has the athleticism and overall talent to play with Kenyon straight up.  The Wabash soft schedule came to roost yesterday as they were saddled with a very soft home draw against Allegheny program that really seems to have slipped the past couple of years. 

Elsewhere, Thomas More is the big story.  They should have another sterling record at season's end.  The OAC is looking a little weak, and a 7-3 Ohio Northern team would appear to be the frontrunner with a big home game with 5-2-1 John Carroll on 10/3.  Penn State-Behrend knocked PS-Altoona from the unbeaten ranks and Rose Hulman is hanging around with impressive road results against Wheaton (Ill) and DePauw.

Carnegie Mellon and Case are going to be heard from all season in the Great Lakes but their fortunes ultimately will be determined by how they survive the UAA multi-city storm.

NCAC New England:

Great information!! This is helpful to me as I don't know a lot about some of the other regions that you describe so thank you for that! If you ever need any information on Mid-Atlantic teams let me know and I will try and help. That's the region I am most accustomed to. I think you hit everything spot on for that region.

A couple things I can try and help with. Kings is 7-2 but they have only played as I like to say "cupcakes." The best win they have would probably be Arcadia? Maybe? They haven't played anyone that is a top contender and they lost to a struggling RIT team this year. There other loss is to a decent Alfred team. Both losses were 2-0 shut-outs. Looks like they need to win their league to make NCAA's.

As for Cabrini, they are quite a surprise this year! They tied a good Alvernia team and lost to Camden 1-0 in OT. They also have a lighter schedule than most but they have played a tougher schedule than Kings.

"When all is said and done, I think we're looking at F&M, Messiah, Gettysburg (if they can stay on course), Eastern, maybe Lycoming, and probably one more Centennial squad in the Mid-Atlantic."
For this section did you forget about ETown? I think they have a good shot of winning the Landmark and getting the AQ which would add them to the list. Eastern probably/should win the Freedom. Then you have Lycoming/Messiah (probablly both) coming out of the Commonwealth. F&M out of the Centennial. Then Gettsyburg if they don't get too beat up in conference play and maybe one more team from this region? Possibly Dickinson if they survive conference play but the tie to Ursinus hurts them bad. But to me it looks like the CC will/should only get 2 teams at this moment in time.

From the weekend: Did you watch the Lycoming at UR game or the Messiah vs Misericordia games? I tuned into Lycoming and UR so was hoping for some insight on how Messiah looked? 4-1 seems like a dominating scoreline and I didn't expect anything less in that one after Misericordia got thrashed by Camden 7-1.

Thanks again for your insights on all the regions its a great help when trying to learn about other teams and let me know your thoughts on those other games!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Poll 3... HERO SPORTS

                REC SOS HEAT       
1 Amherst 6-0 30 92
2 Montclair State 9-1 103 74
3 Tufts 5-1 7 64
4 Loras 5-2-1 13 52
5 Calvin 8-0-1 74 91
6 Kenyon 8-0 228 91
7 Brandeis 7-1 39 83
8 Franklin & Marshall 9-0 109 89
9 Messiah 5-2-1 35 62
10 SUNY_Oneonta 6-2-1 26 72
11 Middlebury 4-1-1 117 60
12 Wesleyan  4-2 35 71
13 Saint Lawrence  7-1-2 96 71
14 Bowdoin  2-2-2 1 44
15 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 8-0-1 89 82
16 Haverford 5-3 4 71
17 Stevens 5-1-2 23 66
18 Chicago 7-2 28 49
19 Christopher Newport  8-0-2 99 75
20 Rutgers-Newark 8-3 49 64
21 Dickinson 5-2-1 62 62
22 Wheaton (IL) 5-2-1 102 67
23 Rutgers-Camden 7-1-1 126 85
24 Trinity(TX) 7-2 157 55
25 North Park 7-2 65 67

[PaulNewman]

Thanks Mid-Atlantic.  Should have included E'town but honestly I don't even know the conferences for some of those schools.  Also even if E'town earns a bid I don't see them doing much damage but I know little about them other than knowing they have a storied history and from what I read on the site.  I know they've been kind of down for a while.

Didn't watch Messiah. I do follow Rochester because I have a daughter that goes to school there, and I am a fan of the school (more so than the soccer program).  I usually follow live stats for them but don't like paying for their video, or can you get a non-HD version for free?  I also follow UR because I follow the UAA fairly closely and am a Brandeis supporter.

Please, any color you, lastguy, and the Messiah folks can add regarding the Mid and South Atlantic will be much appreciated.

I do think the CC will have a shot at getting 3 teams depending a bit on how the NJAC plays out, but I wouldn't put my money on Dickinson being that third team.

[PaulNewman]

Mid-Atlantic/lastguy, I would love to hear some real details on Eastern and Drew.  This first year in the few years I've been following that I've seen them on the radar at all.  I'm not even sure exactly where they are location-wise, lol.

[Off Pitch]

Poll 3... HERO SPORTS

                REC SOS HEAT       
1 Amherst 6-0 30 92
2 Montclair State 9-1 103 74
3 Tufts 5-1 7 64
4 Loras 5-2-1 13 52
5 Calvin 8-0-1 74 91
6 Kenyon 8-0 228 91
7 Brandeis 7-1 39 83
8 Franklin & Marshall 9-0 109 89
9 Messiah 5-2-1 35 62
10 SUNY_Oneonta 6-2-1 26 72
11 Middlebury 4-1-1 117 60
12 Wesleyan  4-2 35 71
13 Saint Lawrence  7-1-2 96 71
14 Bowdoin  2-2-2 1 44
15 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 8-0-1 89 82
16 Haverford 5-3 4 71
17 Stevens 5-1-2 23 66
18 Chicago 7-2 28 49
19 Christopher Newport  8-0-2 99 75
20 Rutgers-Newark 8-3 49 64
21 Dickinson 5-2-1 62 62
22 Wheaton (IL) 5-2-1 102 67
23 Rutgers-Camden 7-1-1 126 85
24 Trinity(TX) 7-2 157 55
25 North Park 7-2 65 67

Hard to find this very credible when Bowdoin has been shut out in 4 of their last 5 games and is arguably not even in the top 14 in New England.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Eastern is directly across the street from Cabrini, and only a few miles away from Haverford and Villanova.

Drew is upstate NJ...  They were a phenomenal team back in the early 2000s and were a tough place to play with the crap turf field.   

[lastguyoffthebench]

Bowdoin at 14 is high, but keep in mind they only lost 1-0 to Amherst and Williams.  These rankings do overvalue strength of conferences, but judging by some of their box scores a draw or win over Tufts would not surprise me.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thanks Mid-Atlantic.  Should have included E'town but honestly I don't even know the conferences for some of those schools.  Also even if E'town earns a bid I don't see them doing much damage but I know little about them other than knowing they have a storied history and from what I read on the site.  I know they've been kind of down for a while.

Didn't watch Messiah. I do follow Rochester because I have a daughter that goes to school there, and I am a fan of the school (more so than the soccer program).  I usually follow live stats for them but don't like paying for their video, or can you get a non-HD version for free?  I also follow UR because I follow the UAA fairly closely and am a Brandeis supporter.

Please, any color you, lastguy, and the Messiah folks can add regarding the Mid and South Atlantic will be much appreciated.

I do think the CC will have a shot at getting 3 teams depending a bit on how the NJAC plays out, but I wouldn't put my money on Dickinson being that third team.

Yes I had to pay for the video. Didn't know that until 5 minutes before kick-off! Won't be doing that again for any Rochester games but this one was worth it. Was a great game to watch. Learned a lot about both teams. When good teams play each other it shows what they are made of.

And yes as Lastguy said, Eastern is a Philly school. Have had a good record the past couple seasons and been the preseason favorite for the Freedom conference but choked when conference playoffs role around. The past 2 years they have been the 1 seed and lost in the semis and the finals. This should be the year they finally get over the hump.

As for Drew I really can't say I know a lot about this team. I haven't seen them play yet so I am only going off who they played and records. Won't BS you with stuff I don't know. They are in the Landmark conference with Etown, Scranton, MM, Juniata, Susquehanna, etc...

And I agree with your Etown statement. This is their first year making a splash in a while (nationally) so we will see if they live up to the hype (which is slowly fading).

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rutgers-Camden remaining schedule:   Probably one of the toughest remaining schedules out there.  Wed vs Rowan will give us a better idea on where Rowan/RUC are.
Getting MSU and Stockton are home is HUGE for Camden this year.
9/30 vs. Rowan *       (8-1)
10/3 at Kean *           (9-1)   
10/7 vs. Haverford     (5-3)
10/10 vs. Ramapo *   (5-3-2)
10/11 vs. Randolph    (4-3-1)
10/14 at TCNJ *         (6-2-2)
10/17 vs. MSU *         (9-1)
10/21 at Swarthmore  (3-6)  5 one goal loss games:  F&M, Eastern, Drew, Cabrini, JHU
10/24 at Rutgers-Newark * (8-3)
10/28 vs. Stockton *          (7-3)
                                .700 OWP

MSU Remaining schedule:  Rowan away, RUC away, TCNJ away (tough place to play) seem to be the only potential future blemishes.
9/28 vs. Brooklyn                 (3-3-1)  lost to Newark 3-0, Birmingham Southern 2-1 in OT... expect an MSU 4-0 win here.
9/30 vs. William Paterson *   (2-4-2)
10/3 at TCNJ *                     (6-2-2)
10/10 at Rowan *                 (8-1)
10/14 vs. Kean *                  (9-1)
10/17 at Rutgers-Camden *  (7-1-1)
10/21 at MCLA •                  (1-4-2)   
10/24 at Ramapo *              (5-3-2)
10/28 vs. Rutgers-Newark * (8-3)
                                          .667 OWP

Rowan remaining schedule:  MSU and Stockton at home are the key to their postseason possibilities.  Away at Camden and away at Kean will be tough tests.
9/30 at Rutgers-Camden *  (7-1-1)
10/3 at Ramapo *              (5-3-2)
10/7 at Swarthmore •         (3-6)
10/10 vs. Montclair State * (9-1)
10/14 vs. Stockton *          (8-3)
10/17 at William Paterson *(2-4-2)   
10/19 at Brooklyn •            (3-3-1)
10/21 at Kean *                 (9-1)
10/24 vs. New Jersey City * (1-8) 
10/28 vs. TCNJ * •              (6-2-2)
                                         .613 OWP

Stockton remaining schedule:  At Rowan and at Rutgers-Camden seem to be the only potential blemishes.
9/30 vs. TCNJ *                   (6-2-2)
10/3 at William Paterson *    (2-4-2)
10/5 vs. Ursinus •                (1-4-2)
10/7 vs. New Jersey City *   (1-8)
10/10 vs. Rutgers-Newark * (8-3)
10/14 at Rowan *                (8-1)
10/17 vs. Farmingdale State •   (5-3) Lost to MSU 8-1. 
10/24 vs. Kean *                 (9-1)               
10/28 at Rutgers-Camden *   (7-1-1)
                                          .623 OWP

Kean remaining schedule:   Only Baruch out of conference game left...  At MSU, At Stockton, RUC home, RUN home, Rowan home are the potential blemishes.
9/30 at New Jersey City * •  3:00 PM  LS 
10/3 vs. Rutgers-Camden * •  4:00 PM  LS V 
10/5 vs. Baruch •  7:30 PM  LS V 
10/10 at William Paterson * •  6:00 PM  LS 
10/14 at Montclair State * •  7:00 PM  LS 
10/17 vs. Rutgers-Newark * •  7:00 PM  LS V 
10/21 vs. Rowan * •  7:30 PM  LS V 
10/24 at Stockton * •  2:00 PM  LS V 
10/28 vs. Ramapo * •  7:30 PM  LS V 


Rutgers-Newark has Stockton away, Kean away, MSU away.  Rutgers-Camden home, Steven Tech home.  With 3 blemishes already, they certainly have a chance to turn it around.

[Mr.Right]

The Rochester v Lycoming draw really does neither of the any favors. They both NEEDED a win especially Lycoming. Now to get a Pool C Lycoming must beat Messiah and Oneonta or at least go 1-0-1 against them. 2 losses against them and they will be cooked.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I wouldn't go that far Mr. Right. And Lycoming will probably play Messiah twice. If they go 1-2-1 with those 4 games they will be in good shape. There only loss is to undefeated #14 Eastern in OT. Not the worst loss to have on your record.

[Mr.Right]

The good losses do not matter as much as good WINS, which Lycoming has none right now. York is a good win but not in the committee's eyes. They will not be ranked