2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

If they go 1-1-1 regular season against Messiah, Oneonta, and Rochester with that win being against Messiah then lose to them in playoffs and go 1-2-1 (split w/Messiah) I don't think that hurts them as long as they don't slip up anywhere else. If that happens they would be 16-2-1 entering the conference tournament. 17-2-1 after semis then face Messiah in the finals. If they lose and go 17-3-1 with losses to Eastern, Oneonta, and Messiah, a tie against at Rochester, and a win vs Messiah among others it would be really hard not to put them in. Especially after the schedule changes they made after getting snubbed last year. 

Now my real question and possible dilemma is this...what if Eastern doesn't win their conference tournament?!?! They could realistically run the table when they hit conference play, but lets say they slip up once in conference. That would put them at 16-1-1 entering the tournament. Say they make the final at 17-1-1 and lose and finish 17-2-1...do they still get in? Salisbury and Lycoming are the good wins. Tied Alvernia. Say they lose to Kings again or Misericordia. What do you think happens then? And a loop could be if Lycoming wins the Commonwealth and Messiah finishes second...would a banged up Messiah team get in over this Eastern team?

All hypothetical at this point but it makes for an interesting thought! Any opinions?   

[Mr.Right]

Now we have the UAA and thanks to Ryan's analysis we have found out that the UAA has garnered on average the most bids every year just ahead of the Nescac. As we all know the Nescac has been much more successful that the UAA in the NCAA's as NYU in 2006 was the last UAA team to make the NCAA Final 4. BTW that NYU side in 2006 was WAAAYYY out of place at the 2006 Final 4. They were a good side but not a Final 4 side AT ALL..

UAA teams as usual will beat each other up and there will be plenty of draws(hello U of Rochester and U Washington).

Teams that have no chance of a Pool C and have underperformed against a rather weak schedule are: NYU and Emory. The other UAA teams cannot stumble against these two sides.

U of Rochester and Washington U have had decent out of conference schedules but maybe 1 or 2 wins for both against GOOD teams. Both teams need to have a stellar UAA record this year to get a Pool C which I do not see happening.

Brandeis, Carnegie Mellon and Case Western all have nice schedules and excellent wins on a great resume. These 3 should all be Pool C locks as long as they do not tank in their UAA battles. The Case v Kenyon game I will be looking forward to catching.

Your UAA bubble team is U of Chicago...They have had a good schedule so far but maybe only 1 or 2 SOLID wins. They must get 4 to 5 wins in the UAA to be the 4th team invited to the NCAA's IMO.

[Mr.Right]

If they go 1-1-1 regular season against Messiah, Oneonta, and Rochester with that win being against Messiah then lose to them in playoffs and go 1-2-1 (split w/Messiah) I don't think that hurts them as long as they don't slip up anywhere else. If that happens they would be 16-2-1 entering the conference tournament. 17-2-1 after semis then face Messiah in the finals. If they lose and go 17-3-1 with losses to Eastern, Oneonta, and Messiah, a tie against at Rochester, and a win vs Messiah among others it would be really hard not to put them in. Especially after the schedule changes they made after getting snubbed last year. 

Now my real question and possible dilemma is this...what if Eastern doesn't win their conference tournament?!?! They could realistically run the table when they hit conference play, but lets say they slip up once in conference. That would put them at 16-1-1 entering the tournament. Say they make the final at 17-1-1 and lose and finish 17-2-1...do they still get in? Salisbury and Lycoming are the good wins. Tied Alvernia. Say they lose to Kings again or Misericordia. What do you think happens then? And a loop could be if Lycoming wins the Commonwealth and Messiah finishes second...would a banged up Messiah team get in over this Eastern team?

All hypothetical at this point but it makes for an interesting thought! Any opinions?

IMO the Commonwealth is a 1 BID league because both Lycoming and Messiah will not have enough wins against ranked teams and have an SOS of around .560...The only way it turns into a 2 bid league is if Messiah wins the tournament and Lycoming beats them regular season and beats Oneonta. Tall Order which will not happen. I do not see Messiah getting a Pool C either if Lycoming wins the title as they have a worse SOS than Lycoming and still have NO wins against ranked teams

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Makes sense and I understand your observations but I think you are automatically giving away a bid to a CC school that won't get one this year. That league is a mess and it's bound to become messier as conference play is starting/has started. And as someone said before it depends on the NJAC and how other conferences shape up. Its been fun to watch the progression of this season. Not what I anticipated when it started!

And Mr. Right, any thoughts on Tufts going down? It was bound to happen but didn't know if you caught the game. I only got my recap from reading these boards.

[Mr.Right]

Mid Atlantic,

You are assuming the bids are based on regions. Each region is not assured the same amount of bids or more / less bids based on how many teams are in the region. 19 Pool C's do not goet spread out by region. So the East could get 6 Pool C's and the South only 2. So basically you are not matching up Lycoming's resume with say Haverford or Camden, you are matching their resume up with all bubble teams in any region. That is why Lycoming / Messiah resume matched up to a say a UAA side or Nescac side might not match up favorably in SOS and OWP and record v ranked

[Mr.Right]

Tufts was bound to go down this year with their Nescac slate plus Brandeis. I did not think they would lose to Brandeis at home but that loss does not hurt them at all. They just cannot keep losing obviously. That win is a great one for Brandeis and as long as they get 5 wins in the UAA will have an excellent resume and possibly could host all the way to the Final 4 if Amherst slips up which they might.

Brandeis does travel to Wheaton MA on Tuesday. Brandeis has more talent and has had Wheaton's # the past 5 years. Before that, Wheaton dominated the series. Wheaton is coming off a tough loss to WPI which I watched and thought the game deserved to end in a draw. If Wheaton MA has any chance of a Pool C THEY MUST BEAT Brandeis and get to the NEWMAC final. I think Wheaton if they work hard and stay focused and play to the best of their abilities have a shot at an upset on Tuesday in Norton.

If Wheaton can upset Brandeis and if and a big IF WPI could get a result against Amherst, even a draw would help them then the NEWMAC has a shot at 2 Pool C's. If WPI takes care of business in the league and if they could earn a draw v Amherst that might be enough.

Wheaton needs to go clean the rest of the way and MUST beat Brandeis and Babson to get a Pool C. They do not have to many "good" wins. Tall order.

WPI has 1 good win over Wheaton and that is it. The loss to Brandeis does not help. WPI is in the same boat as Lycoming...Great record, Tough losses and need more SOLID wins.

Babson has a great schedule but already have 3 losses. Expect that loss total to rise and they will not have a chance.

MIT and Springfield have great records but Springfield's schedule is HORRIBLE and MIT's is ok but not great

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thanks for the info! Anybody have thoughts on what the top 25 might look like come tomorrow?

[PaulNewman]

Mid-Atlantic, a good example of what Mr.Right is talking about is John Carroll last year.  They won and maybe were undefeated in their conference (OAC) and had a great record of 17-4 or something like that.  They were regionally ranked #2 in the last published regional rankings (ahead of OWU) and did NOT get a bid because they lost in their conference tourney final to Heidelberg.

[Mr.Right]

Mid-Atlantic, a good example of what Mr.Right is talking about is John Carroll last year.  They won and maybe were undefeated in their conference (OAC) and had a great record of 17-4 or something like that.  They were regionally ranked #2 in the last published regional rankings (ahead of OWU) and did NOT get a bid because they lost in their conference tourney final to Heidelberg.

RPI another example from 2014. Their resume matched up nice to other bubble teams in other regions but they lost in their conference final and got snubbed badly IMO. They had to be one of the First 4 out and I believe Brockport St which is also in the East was a Last 4 In but both Brockport St and RPI resumes were matched up with other bubble teams across the country. However, I am guessing but I bet in the world of D3 soccer sometimes it is a geographical faction that possible could factor into these bubble teams chances. If that is the case it would be a shame. I really only think the geographical thing factors into hosting rights.

[PaulNewman]

Saturday, October 3rd (this coming Saturday for the date-challenged like me) is a monster day in D3 soccer.  High stakes, blockbuster match-ups across the board.  Which makes some of these in-week games over the next couple of days intriguing because a number of notables could get caught looking ahead.

Let's start with UW-Whitewater.  I had to double-check to make sure I had this right.  UW-W is playing AWAY at Loras and North Park on back-to-back nights. 

Tomorrow

UW-W @Loras

Tufts @Wesleyan

Brandeis @Wheaton (MA)

DePauw @Thomas More

Chicago @Carthage

Trinity (CT) @Conn College

Wabash @Centre

Randolph @Roanoke

Luther @Macalester


Wednesday

Rowan @Rutgers-Camden

Amherst @WPI

UW-W @North Park

Messiah @E'town

Case Western @Kenyon

Hopkins @Gettysburg

Denison @Heidelberg

Kalamazoo @Alma

UMass-Boston @Bridgewater State

[lastguyoffthebench]

Week 3 Poll Projections:

Central:  Calvin, Washington (MO), Wheaton, Chicago  (Wheaton bumps Chicago after the 1-0 Win)
East:  RPI, SLU, Plattsburgh St, Oneonta St.
Great Lakes:  Kenyon, Denison, Thomas More, Case Western (TM gets respect, CMU falls out after draw vs Westminster)
Mid-Atlantic:  F&M, Eastern, Gettysburg, Etown (no movement here, except Drew gets bumped for their loss to TCNJ; G'burg and Etown move up).
New England:  Amherst, Brandeis, Tufts, MA-Boston.  (Brandeis moves ahead of Tufts after the W, Amherst slides up).
North:  Loras, UWW, CSS, UWO
South: CNU, MSU, Salisbury, Rutgers-Camden (even with Salisbury loss this week, Camden will not jump Salisbury due to H2H). Could make a case for Rowan in 4th slot.
West:  Whitworth, UT-Dallas, Colorado, Occidental, Trinity

[lastguyoffthebench]

Top 10

1.  Kenyon
2.  F&M
3.  Amherst
4.  Calvin
5.  CNU
6.  Whitworth
7.  Loras
8.  RPI
9.  MSU
10. Eastern

[PaulNewman]

lastguy, interesting that you have CMU dropping while D3 Soccer still has them at #7 nationally, even after a weak draw.

Nationally, I would have Amherst #3, Whitworth #4, CNU #5, Brandeis #6, Tufts #7, Montclair #8, Calvin #9, RPI #10, and then probably Rut-Camden at #11.

Going to be intriging few days through the Saturday and maybe Sunday games with weather.  Wonder is some big games will get postponed.

[lastguyoffthebench]

My top 10

1 Amherst
2 Kenyon
3 F&M
4. Brandeis
5. Loras
6. Whitworth
7. RPI
8. Tufts
9. CNU
10 Calvin

[lastguyoffthebench]

I'd almost consider 1 loss Brandeis over Kenyon and F&M with their early loss coming on the road in Texas @ Trinity.   In terms of the Brandeis - Tufts game, who was the better side or team more likely to make a deeper run in the tournament?

CNU and Calvin at 9 and 10 to me is also a stretch, but just going by record I had to put them there.  A team like MSU, SLU, Wheaton, UWW, Thomas More or Rutgers-Camden could easily be in those slots.

Massey Ratings top 10  (SOS)

Amherst  (15)
Kenyon   (156)
RPI (42)
F&M (88)
Tufts (14)
MA Boston (124)
Whitworth (122)
Rowan (20)
Montclair St (134)
St Lawrence (6)
------------------
Brandeis (16)

Somewhat agree with their rankings besides MA Boston and Rowan being so high.  I'd swap them out and move Brandeis and Thomas More up.