2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[blooter442]

WPI starting to look like they're holding on.

You're right - starting to hoof it. They were in control for a while, and had the possession, but are now looking gassed.

What is impressive though is the # of headers WPI has won - much more than I would have guessed.

[PaulNewman]

UW-W draws first blood.

[Saint of Old]

I respect Amherst and they are a power in D3 soccer, but mark my words, they will never win a title unless they begin to play a more passing game.

[PaulNewman]

WPI starting to look like they're holding on.

You're right - starting to hoof it. They were in control for a while, and had the possession, but are now looking gassed.

What is impressive though is the # of headers WPI has won - much more than I would have guessed.

Looks like caught their 2nd wind.  Doing better now.

[dontshootthegoose]

UWW up 1-0 at half against Loras

[casualfan]

Thoughts on the 1st half of UWW-Loras?

Battle of two 2 good teams who don't play pretty soccer. Only goal off of a throw-in off the keeper's hands. Loras with one good chance to equalize. A second throw-in goal for UWW was waved off. Otherwise fairly equal.

[blooter442]

Never seen anyone aimlessly boot the ball as much as Ajayi of Amherst. Every time it comes near him, whether under pressure or not - HOOF! - straight up in the air.

Despite being one of the ugliest overtimes I've ever seen, a good finely-poised game. Amherst slightly edging it but I could see WPI holding out for a very good draw.

[ECSUalum]

2-1 Amherst with 3 min left in 2OT!!  Not sure who got the winner but everyone was gassed at that point, with a lot of kick ball going on.
Congrats Lord Jeffs who remains undefeated

[Mr.Right]

Singer again...Kid made a good run and the wheels of Martin set it up..Those 3 up top are the difference

[blooter442]

2-1 Amherst with 3 min left in 2OT!!  Not sure who got the winner but everyone was gassed at that point, with a lot of kick ball going on.

Singer from Martin. Three in his last two games. Had a feeling he was going to end it once he came on. A very good striker - perhaps a bit underrated.

Harsh on WPI, but I think they'll rebound. They're still far and away the best NEWMAC team I've seen this year, although MIT is quietly 7-1. Then again, MIT often has a habit of putting together some good results and then dropping one you wouldn't expect, but Bingham (who is still for some reason listed as a mid - he is definitely a CF) is scoring often, so you never know. Either way, WPI battled tonight and probably deserved a point, but Amherst knows how to win those close games (most of the time.)

[casualfan]

UWW 2-1 Loras

Dylan Hottsmith, welcome to the Hawk Cup. Unbelievable sequence to score the goal. Splits three defenders then tucks in a far post finish with 3 min left!

First win for UWW  over Loras since last second goal to win at Rock Bowl in 2010.

Think they needed a signature win. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow goes at North Park.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yikes 5-3-1 Messiah MUST win that conference tourney now

Still don't think they need to win their conference to get in. If they run the table and lose in the conference final that puts them at 15-4-1. That would be harsh for them not to get in with that record. Haverford, Hopkins, Dickinson already are close to 4 losses and a tie. The CC beats up on each other so I am gong to guess that those 3 teams will have 4 or more losses come NCAA's. I doubt a third CC team would get a bid over Messiah. Just my thoughts.

I know we discussed before the "process" of selecting teams, but based off assumptions that the CC gets at least 3 every year, that's where I am coming from with this one.

Still surprised that Etown won. I guess I shouldn't be though? 

[PaulNewman]

Regarding the latest poll question, here's my analysis.

Bottom line...all 3 likely to get NCAA bids.

Messiah has been the most disappointing, but it's hard not to favor the Falcons winning the conference AQ, especially if the tournament final is on their home field.  Lycoming winning the regular season game would make things interesting, as they likely would have home field, but does anyone want to bet on Lycoming beating Messiah twice?  Falcons will make it and by November will have worked through most of the growing pains of a revamped roster.

Wheaton should be fine.  Just too much talent even if their overall talent was slightly overestimated.  The Wash U game is always a close one and an away loss at Loras means nothing (speaking of which, maybe Loras should have been included in the poll after another loss was hung on the Duhawks last night).  The home draw with Rose Hulman was probably the weakest result out of their 3 blemishes, but then again, Rose Hulman beat DePauw away.  Similar to Messiah, Wheaton really only has one team to worry much about in-conference, and that's North Park.  Wheaton gets that game at home in their final fame of the regular season, and so Wheaton has a great chance to host their tourney.  Look for Wheaton to run the table or at most have 1 more loss or a draw.

OWU on the surface would look to be in the most trouble because of significantly more in-conference competition, but they are really in no worse shape than they were last year at the same time (and of course we all know they went to the Final Four).  Judging by their demolition of Capital last night, they are getting their injured players back in the mix and now will get stronger as the season progresses.  They get Kenyon at home but do have to travel to DePauw.  Oberlin could be competitive with them at Oberlin but that's a hard game to see OWU losing.  This weekend at Wabash is interesting.  Wabash needs a result (at least a draw) to have any chance of landing a conference tournament slot, and right about now is when I would expect OWU to go out to Crawfordsville and earn a solid 2-0 or 3-0 win.  I do not believe this is one of OWU's signature teams (compared to squads over the prior 6-8 years), but I believed (and still believe) the same about last year's team.  That said, OWU hasn't had a season where they didn't win EITHER the regular season OR conference tourney since like 1913.  The OWU aura is generally good for at least a goal a game against their conference challengers, and I don't see any reason why that would be different this year.  Martin is superb at making adjustments and winning big games (especially against teams that have a history of losing big games against OWU), and now that he is getting key players back from injury there's no reason to really expect anything different.  No OAC team appears a threat for an large bid at the moment, and unless TMC loses their conference AQ, the only at large threats would come from CMU and Case (and of course NCAC rivals).  When a team has NEVER (as in NEVER) lost twice to the same team in the same year it's hard to pick against them.

[Mr.Right]

Messiah must win the AQ they will not get a Pool C. I have not seen Lycoming play this year as I tried to catch the match against U of Rochester but something came up and I could not watch. Mid Atlantic Fan has seen both teams I am sure more than once. What are your impressions of Lycoming and are they dangerous enough to win that AQ?  I think 2 matches are must watches...Lycoming v Messiah and Lycoming v Oneonta St

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mr. Right,

Yes I have seen Messiah play a couple more times than I have seen Lycoming in the past few years but this year I have seen them both about 3 times (give or take a game). I do think Lycoming has a good chance of competing with Messiah.

Both teams graduated a ton of guys that contributed to championship teams. Lycoming returns a bulk of their attacking players which is probably the main reason for their defensive struggles this year. They were the last team in the country to give up a goal last year, so it's not that they are struggling, but they are struggling from what they are accustomed to. Not as many shut-outs as last year, giving up goals early, etc.

As for Messiah we know the class they graduated. IMO the best class of all time. So both teams I think are on an equal playing field when it comes to replacements filling in the gaps and stepping up as play makers. Lycoming lost a class that defeated the national champion Messiah team in 2013, but a bunch of those guys still remain on the current roster. I don't think Lycoming will be scared to play Messiah like most teams are. They have beaten Messiah already and with the results we have seen so far I think it adds to their confidence.

Now to get into the details and good stuff. The regular season match between Lycoming and Messiah is at Lycoming. It's a small turf field. Messiah has a large grass field so that will be a factor. With it being small, I think that hurts Messiah as they like to spread it out and possess offensively. This will help Lycoming (and Messiah) both from a defensive perspective.

Lycoming has some speed up top that I think can threaten the back line of Messiah. Messiah's possession is an advantage to them as Lycoming will have to defend more than they are used to, but the same holds true for Messiah.

Both teams have goalie issues. Not impressed with either teams keepers. Major drop off in that department for both teams.

If I had to pick right now who would win I would say it's a tie. I think these teams are deadlocked. After watching Lycoming absolutely dominate a good Rochester team on the road I am fully confident in saying that they will hang with Messiah.

I won't make a prediction for this game until we get closer and see how conference play starts to shape up, but yes they are dangerous enough this year to win the AQ for their conference.