2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Saint of Old]

The crazy thing about Messiah (and I do think they will make the dance and go on a run), is that they almost had to have a couple sub-par seasons for people to sit up and recognize what they have done for the past 15 years.

What they have accomplished does not make sense.
It will also never happen again that one team can be so dominant in D3 Soccer.

Kinda like there will never be another Usain Bolt.

People think that from 2000 and after messiah has been a great program, the truth is they have been extremely strong wayyyy before that and had die hard alumni all around the country form a decades before waiting for 2000 to happen.

Greatness is proven season after season by programs that can remain elite for 20-25 years. It takes more than a class or two to put that together. It also takes guys like:

Brandt
Dr. Jay
Durocher
Russo
and Joe Bean

who single-mindedly decide to make a program their legacy on this earth.

Hats off to Messiah, regardless of how this season finishes, I think we all have been witness to something extremely special.

Over the last 15 years while cheering on our own respective teams, we have seen Camelot in PA.

[Brother Flounder]

The crazy thing about Messiah (and I do think they will make the dance and go on a run), is that they almost had to have a couple sub-par seasons for people to sit up and recognize what they have done for the past 15 years.

What they have accomplished does not make sense.
It will also never happen again that one team can be so dominant in D3 Soccer.

Kinda like there will never be another Usain Bolt.

People think that from 2000 and after messiah has been a great program, the truth is they have been extremely strong wayyyy before that and had die hard alumni all around the country form a decades before waiting for 2000 to happen.

Greatness is proven season after season by programs that can remain elite for 20-25 years. It takes more than a class or two to put that together. It also takes guys like:

Brandt
Dr. Jay
Durocher
Russo
and Joe Bean

who single-mindedly decide to make a program their legacy on this earth.

Hats off to Messiah, regardless of how this season finishes, I think we all have been witness to something extremely special.

Over the last 15 years while cheering on our own respective teams, we have seen Camelot in PA.

I wholeheartedly agree!

[Mr.Right]

Thank you for the analysis.....I hate to say it but I love watching Messiah on turf, it just speeds them up and everyone else a notch. I am old fashioned as I am a grass man but the turf is beginning to wear on me. Watching Brandeis on turf and grass is like watching two different teams.

What type of style does Lycoming play? Formation? How did they look against U of Rochester?

[TennesseeJed]

...OWU on the surface would look to be in the most trouble because of significantly more in-conference competition, but they are really in no worse shape than they were last year at the same time (and of course we all know they went to the Final Four).  Judging by their demolition of Capital last night, they are getting their injured players back in the mix and now will get stronger as the season progresses...  I do not believe this is one of OWU's signature teams (compared to squads over the prior 6-8 years), but I believed (and still believe) the same about last year's team.  That said, OWU hasn't had a season where they didn't win EITHER the regular season OR conference tourney since like 1913...  Martin is superb at making adjustments and winning big games (especially against teams that have a history of losing big games against OWU), and now that he is getting key players back from injury there's no reason to really expect anything different.

OWU 7-2-2 this year vs. 7-3-1 same time last year.  Big difference this year not so much in record, but schedule and roster.  First loss of 2014 was to Calvin, who was arguably a solid team last year.  Losing seniors Colton Bloecher (who had 8 of their 23 goals by this time last year, and at least one assist) and Beemiller (who started in goal every game of the season last year) was a big loss for OWU in the same way that Kenyon's Justice, Ernst, and Carney (and certainly others--no intent to minimize importance of Mitsuyama, Petrou, Scott et al) graduating last year was/is a challenge for the Lords.  Agree w/ you NENCAC that injuries have had an impact on their play for the past 4-5 games, with Baum and others out, but I don't think they've been moving the ball all that well (for OWU) relative to past teams, even with all the starters in.  Schaefer, Lee, and Barnes have been the bright lights in my view this season (no huge surprise) but the bench depth of previous years doesn't seem to be as strong in the current season/squad.  Agree with you entirely that Martin is as good as they come at making adjustments and finding ways to win games.  Definitely not considering them out of contention--no matter where they are in rankings--until they're officially out.  They're "gamers" and always there and ready to exploit other teams' weaknesses...they just wear them down...  The "aura" as you say is a big psychological weapon.  Still, all that said, they're not the team they were last year, or years before like 2011, IMO from what we've seen thus far this season.   Who's to say...it ain't over yet...we'll get an insight this weekend against Wabash.  Beating a 2-7 team even by 5-0 is not a turnaround--but it is a data point.  I also agree with you that it's coming for them at a time when they have more consistent and simultaneous pressure from across the NCAC from teams that are capable of giving them a run for their money than they've had in recent years (maybe ever, at least in recent history?)  Kenyon has been there before--certainly last year...the 2-0 loss in the NCAA tourney was really just heartbreaking that it came at the time it did...unfortunately, it just wasn't the Lords' day that day--and the Lords will hopefully go the distance this year.  But, Kenyon, Denison and DePauw all simulaneously playing at, or better than, OWU's own performance has to be a first in a long time.

This weekend at Wabash is interesting.  Wabash needs a result (at least a draw) to have any chance of landing a conference tournament slot, and right about now is when I would expect OWU to go out to Crawfordsville and earn a solid 2-0 or 3-0 win.

Agree entirely.  Wabash hasn't really played a really tough opponent yet (Rose-Hulman and Centre closest to being exceptions) in my opinion and the loss at Centre, combined with their poor showings at Mt. Joseph and Allegheny, kills not only their previous record and ranking, but also any momentum they had going for them as they move into their tougher conference game schedule.  OWU is coming off a 5-0 stomping of Capital, getting their starters back in the game and my money is strongly on OWU this weekend too, which, if they win, will most likely dash any hopes Wabash may have had for a NCAA tournament run this year.  Still, Wabash has shown that they can be hungry and determined and find the back of the net, as they did in the upset of Kenyon in Crawfordsville last year.  Betting that OWU wants it worse than Wabash does at this point in the season and that the Bishops have more tools in their arsenal to emerge victoriously.

Case is back on Kenyon's schedule saying that the game is postponed, though no new date is set. (The game disappeared off their event calendar immediately following the announcement of the postponement yesterday.)  As I said yesterday, I'm still hoping that they'll find a mutually good time to play the game.  I agree with an earlier comment of yours that it was Kenyon's loss and DePauw's gain that Kenyon had to postpone the game, as they haven't played all that well as a team (despite a number of individual goals and winning games...) for the last few games, or like I think they're capable of playing.  Will be interesting to see if Barnes is well enough to play at all this weekend and will also be interesting to see how and when Brown uses his [largely freshmen] bench.  Myers and Lowry have loads of potential as new CB's for Kenyon, but aside from CMU, they're largely untested.  Myers did a solid job of defending CMU's #5 Webb, so it will be interesting to see how the back line fares under more intense offensive pressure from DePauw, Denison, OWU and potentially Oberlin and Wabash.  DePauw juniors Gonzalez and Hoffman are sure to press Myers and Lowry as hard as they can on Saturday.

Interesting, potentially close, games of interest on Sat 10/3

Tufts @ Amherst
DePauw @ Kenyon
CMU @ Brandeis
Rutgers Camden @ Kean
Hobart @ Skidmore
Haverford @ Gettysburg
Conn College @ Williams
OWU @ Wabash
Wheaton (MA) @ Babson

[PaulNewman]

Great post, TennesseeJed.  I've looked at the schedules and there isn't a time when I see the Case game being played.  That means Kenyon, already with a game or two less than many teams, will be down to 16.  Also supposed to rain steadily and perhaps at times heavily Saturday so not sure how the field will be in much better shape.

[Mr.Right]

NCAA Rule for D3 states teams MUST play 13 regular season games at least to be considered for the NCAA D3 Tournament. Kenyon will find a way to play it even if they need to go neutral or on the road

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thank you for the analysis.....I hate to say it but I love watching Messiah on turf, it just speeds them up and everyone else a notch. I am old fashioned as I am a grass man but the turf is beginning to wear on me. Watching Brandeis on turf and grass is like watching two different teams.

What type of style does Lycoming play? Formation? How did they look against U of Rochester?

I myself prefer grass over turf but don't mind the turf...just prefer grass when given a choice (a good grass field that is). Lycoming over the past couple of years have had some coaching changes but it seems that their current head coach will be around for a while. The style of play since he has come in is mixed. A lot of clearing the ball to the corner and high pressing to turn their opponents over. Not quite sure what formation they play exactly, but they have a lone striker so it looks like a 4-5-1 to me. Sometimes looks like a 4-1-3-2 when in possession of the ball.

They are a physical, gritty, high pressing, defensive minded team from what I have seen of them, although they are scoring goals in bunches this year. This year they are able to possess the ball a little more than the past few years which could be leading to more goal production and they have an athletic group that starts for them.

As for the Rochester match up, they out shot UR 15-9 and had a 14-0 advantage on corner kicks which is an amazing statistic. I'd say they had the ball in Rochester's half of the field for the majority of the game. It was a physical contest and high paced so it was exciting to watch even with the 0-0 scoreline. A lot of yellow cards were given out and the foul count was 24-18 to Lycoming, which was honestly low for how physical the contest was. The referee let a lot go compared to most. Rochester was dangerous on the counter and set pieces. They had 2 legitimate chances for goal scoring opportunities. Lycoming had 6 or 7. The fair result probably should have been 2-0 or 2-1 Lycoming. 

[Mr.Right]

Thank you for the analysis.....I hate to say it but I love watching Messiah on turf, it just speeds them up and everyone else a notch. I am old fashioned as I am a grass man but the turf is beginning to wear on me. Watching Brandeis on turf and grass is like watching two different teams.

What type of style does Lycoming play? Formation? How did they look against U of Rochester?

I myself prefer grass over turf but don't mind the turf...just prefer grass when given a choice (a good grass field that is). Lycoming over the past couple of years have had some coaching changes but it seems that their current head coach will be around for a while. The style of play since he has come in is mixed. A lot of clearing the ball to the corner and high pressing to turn their opponents over. Not quite sure what formation they play exactly, but they have a lone striker so it looks like a 4-5-1 to me. Sometimes looks like a 4-1-3-2 when in possession of the ball.

They are a physical, gritty, high pressing, defensive minded team from what I have seen of them, although they are scoring goals in bunches this year. This year they are able to possess the ball a little more than the past few years which could be leading to more goal production and they have an athletic group that starts for them.

As for the Rochester match up, they out shot UR 15-9 and had a 14-0 advantage on corner kicks which is an amazing statistic. I'd say they had the ball in Rochester's half of the field for the majority of the game. It was a physical contest and high paced so it was exciting to watch even with the 0-0 scoreline. A lot of yellow cards were given out and the foul count was 24-18 to Lycoming, which was honestly low for how physical the contest was. The referee let a lot go compared to most. Rochester was dangerous on the counter and set pieces. They had 2 legitimate chances for goal scoring opportunities. Lycoming had 6 or 7. The fair result probably should have been 2-0 or 2-1 Lycoming.

Excellent analysis...I love teams that high press and force giveaway's. They are usually fun to watch because they are as you said "gritty" type teams that may not have the most skill but they have more HEART than their opponent. 14-0 Corners is a statistic you normally do not see. Usually if a team has 0 corners it means they were pinned in their half the entire game. However, the statistic of having 14 corners with nothing to show for it is also surprising.




This brings up a question for our statistic minded posters:    On avg...what is the % of corners scored on compared to corners taken?   I would guess 4-5% but I could be way off.

[Mr.Right]

I have posted this before but I believe Year-In and Year-Out that the University of Rochester the past 20 years are THE BIGGEST CONUNDRUM in D3 Soccer.

[PaulNewman]

I have posted this before but I believe Year-In and Year-Out that the University of Rochester the past 20 years are THE BIGGEST CONUNDRUM in D3 Soccer.

LOL.  It's a bit that way as an academic institution, too.  Not too many, even in New England, know much about UR, and many aren't exactly sure where to place UR among its peers.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yes a couple of those 6 or 7 legitimate chances were off set pieces and more specifically corners and long throws. Rochester cleared one off of the goal line on a header from a corner. Another chance for Lycoming was from a corner that was played deep then headed back across to the back post. Lycoming had 3 players wide open inside the 6 yard box where 2 of them completely missed the ball trying to kick it in and the third guy headed up and over from about 2 yards out on an open net. Another good chance was off a scrum in the box from a corner that UR some how eventually cleared. There was another play where a Lycoming player completely missed the ball (trying to kick it to hard maybe) at the edge of the 6 yard box and it deflected out for a corner.

Many missed opportunities for them to say the least. Also something I forgot to add to the analysis was fitness levels. UR looked exhausted come the 70th minute. Lycoming was flying all over for the entire 110 minutes of play. That also was something that impressed me about them and gives them a good chance to hang around with a very fit and deep Messiah team.

[Mr.Right]

I hate Monday's and Thursday's during the season because they are DEAD days. It gives team much needed practice time and regeneration time but for us fans it is the worst

[Golden_Fan]

This brings up a question for our statistic minded posters:    On avg...what is the % of corners scored on compared to corners taken?   I would guess 4-5% but I could be way off.

Here's a good link i found for that http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2010/12/corner-kicks-by-numbers.html

Say it's about 2%

[blooter442]

I have posted this before but I believe Year-In and Year-Out that the University of Rochester the past 20 years are THE BIGGEST CONUNDRUM in D3 Soccer.

What's the furthest they've made it? They seem to make the Tournament most years - 2011 was the last time they didn't make it I believe - but, 2009 aside, the Sweet 16 seems to be the furthest ago.

Either way, aside from 2011 when they rightly didn't make it, there have been some years where they've veeeery fishily gotten in...8-5-2 regular season in 2006 anyone?

[Mr.Right]

Yes a couple of those 6 or 7 legitimate chances were off set pieces and more specifically corners and long throws. Rochester cleared one off of the goal line on a header from a corner. Another chance for Lycoming was from a corner that was played deep then headed back across to the back post. Lycoming had 3 players wide open inside the 6 yard box where 2 of them completely missed the ball trying to kick it in and the third guy headed up and over from about 2 yards out on an open net. Another good chance was off a scrum in the box from a corner that UR some how eventually cleared. There was another play where a Lycoming player completely missed the ball (trying to kick it to hard maybe) at the edge of the 6 yard box and it deflected out for a corner.

Many missed opportunities for them to say the least. Also something I forgot to add to the analysis was fitness levels. UR looked exhausted come the 70th minute. Lycoming was flying all over for the entire 110 minutes of play. That also was something that impressed me about them and gives them a good chance to hang around with a very fit and deep Messiah team.

Another good point that we do not talk about enough on here. Teams fitness levels. Fitness is obviously a major factor in soccer. IMO teams that are not fit especially at this point in the season means they did not prepare or care to prepare enough in the off season. There is no reason a team a month into the season should be gassed at the 70th minute. THE ONLY EXCEPTION is if you have no depth and therefore cannot give guys a blow without sacrificing the overall play on the field.  Teams that are fit and can run and run IMO mean they worked extra hard in the off season, have decent depth, good senior leadership and coaching leadership making sure the guys were ready to begin the season and finally that the team CARES and WANTS it more.